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05:29 < Taek> https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
05:29 < Taek> the sum of these bets is substantially more than 200 cents
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05:34 < aj> Taek: you can buy the top 11 "no" shares for $9.43 for a guaranteed pay off of $10... only about 6% ROI though
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05:36 < Taek> Was poking around because I've been reading this: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~kroll/papers/weis14_prediction.pdf
05:37 < Taek> one of the mechanisms discussed is the ability to buy 1 share of each result for $1
05:37 < Taek> each 'yes' answer, rather
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05:38 < Taek> that would make arbitrage of over-confident markets extremely easy
05:38 < Taek> similarly, you can sell 1 'yes' share of each result for $1, which makes arbitrage of under-confident markets equivalently easy
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05:40 < aj> if you sold 11 "yes" shares, you'd only be risking $1 (in return for $1.57 i guess), but afaics you'd have to lock up $11 to actually do it, which would be a pita
05:43 < Taek> for historical purposes: http://imgur.com/06DowRI
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05:52 < Taek> Is it safe to say that censorship-resistance is a prerequisite for decentralization?
05:53 < Taek> In the case of Bitcoin, invalid blocks are actively censored by the entire network
05:54 < Taek> though I don't think that helps answer the original question
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06:12 < aj> Taek: i think you could be decentralised without being censorship resistant. take SMTP but then have NSA log all unencrypted connections, and block connections from anyone unpopular eg
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06:18 < Taek> aj: got cutoff after 'unpopular eg' - but I think I agree with what you are saying
06:19 < kanzure> "invalid blocks" don't get in, but "valid blocks that don't win" also don't get in; there was a proposal floating around that all winning blocks should include a hash of some of the competing blocks or something.
06:19 < kanzure> or er... was it a hash of an invalid block. hm.
06:20 < Taek> there have been at least a few proposals involving including the hashes of non-winning blocks, I believe Ethereum uses this to some extent
06:21 < kanzure> was looking for papers yesterday re: stock markets where the orders and trading are based on probability distributions of preferences. same question for auction houses and auction games. didn't find anything interesting but also didn't look very hard.
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06:44 < jgarzik> kanzure, related plug and wizards material - bitcoin-specific auction - https://github.com/jgarzik/auctionpunk
06:46 < Taek> the readme is not terribly helpful :P
06:46 < aj> kanzure: hash of invalid block was an anti-SPV-mining thing i think?
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06:47 < kanzure> jgarzik: yeah you should do quick readme for that
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07:03 < jgarzik> kanzure, Taek: done
07:04 < kanzure> guess you can go home early now
07:05 < kanzure> "First Price Sealed Bid auctions"
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07:22 < jgarzik> it will improve quite a bit once CLTV is rolled out
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07:39 < Taek> knosys page for 'Decentralized Prediction Markets':  https://github.com/DavidVorick/knosys/blob/master/Decentralized%20Prediction%20Markets.md
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--- Log closed Sun Nov 08 00:00:19 2015