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23:03 < Taek> As far as I can tell, both of those factors outweigh most everything else 23:04 < Taek> bsm117532: bitfury is a good example of this, I believe all of their farms are built from their cutting edge hardware 23:05 < Taek> I am further wondering if this could be mitigated somewhat by leveraging hardware which is not inherently wasteful 23:05 < bsm117532> So I've been evolving towards a weird idea...imagine a PBFT (let's call it Honey, @amiller) that accepts transactions of a special kind that represent an expenditure of real-world assets (aka PoW). 23:05 < Taek> and what I mean by that, is that mining ASICs have exactly one use 23:05 < Taek> but, something like storage harddrives have multiple uses, and therefore reasons to be puchased and 'decentralized' beyond merely mining 23:06 < bsm117532> Taek: I think the only solution for the Bitcoin ecosystem is ASICs that cannot be moved to another coin. That destroys the security guarantees of the system. 23:06 -!- PaulCapestany [~PaulCapes@204.28.124.82] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:06 < bsm117532> I had some conversations with zooko in Hong Kong about this regarding Zcash. 23:06 -!- priidu [~priidu@unaffiliated/priidu] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:07 < Taek> being a minority hashrate is definintely a danger 23:07 < bsm117532> They've chosen a memory-hard algorithm, which means that Ethereum hardware can/will be reallocated to mine Zcash. 23:07 < bsm117532> One or the other will be a minority. 23:07 < Taek> but if you are majority, another coin would need to fund enough incentive to get 51% of the hashrate off of your coin 23:07 < Taek> right. It's bad to be the minority, but I don't think it's similarly bad to be the majority 23:07 < Taek> as long as the incentive remains 23:08 < Taek> and barriers to collusion also remain 23:08 < bsm117532> I've been racking my brains for ways that hardware can be so "special purpose" but I keep coming back to the same conclusion: the only way to be truly secure is to couple your coin with ASIC manufacuring, probably using an open source design with many manufacturers. 23:08 -!- PaulCape_ [~PaulCapes@204.28.124.82] has quit [Ping timeout: 244 seconds] 23:09 < bsm117532> Taek: Let's imagine two coins, and you know the amount of hashpower that could potentially be reallocated to your coin. A logical computation of "confirmation time" is infinite for the minority coin. 23:10 < Taek> yes, but I'm talking about the majority coin 23:10 < Taek> minority coins can defend themselves by picking a different algo and getting an ASIC out 23:10 < bsm117532> So the only way a coin is secure if there do not exist assets in the world that could be reallocated to perform a 51% attack... 23:10 < Taek> well, they are still subject to the growing pains associated with getting multiple manufacturers that are all competitive 23:10 -!- thekrynn_ [~thekrynn@pool-74-101-120-91.nycmny.fios.verizon.net] has left #bitcoin-wizards ["Textual IRC Client: www.textualapp.com"] 23:11 < bsm117532> If I had to release a coin today, I'd do it in concert with VHDL for a reasonable miner chip. 23:11 < Taek> well, or you make sure that at every step there's not enough incentive to reallocate those resources 23:11 < Taek> attacking a coin still requires burning power 23:11 < bsm117532> Taek: how do you make there not be an incentive to reallocate resources? 23:12 < Taek> don't have enough money worth of double spends 23:12 < bsm117532> ??? don't understand... 23:12 < Taek> if it's going to cost $1,000 in electricity to attack a minority coin, the profits from such an attack need to be at least $1,000 or the attack doesn't make sense 23:13 < Taek> barring vandalism, which might happen at the $1,000 range but probably not with larger sums of money 23:13 < bsm117532> Ok so there's hardware X that can compute Pow X at rate blah... and hardware Y that can compute hardware X at rate blahblah... The point of ASICs is to make the difference between X and Y an order of magnitude... 23:15 < bsm117532> In the big picture there's only a couple of resources: compute cycles/s, and storage. I'm struggling to come up with a third that could ever be an order of magnitude over something else... 23:15 < Taek> Storage in many ways seems pretty attractive to me 23:15 < bsm117532> Which means only two coins ever could be secure. Let's call them Bitcoin and Ethereum (assuming they don't shoot themselves in the foot with Casper) 23:16 < bsm117532> I know it does Taek :-P 23:16 < Taek> I meant as a method for securing consensus 23:17 < Taek> I disagree that you can only have two coins which are secure. If the hardware is difficult enough to build, and is single-purpose, you can have as many coins as you have sufficiently unique hashing algorithms 23:17 < Taek> well 23:17 -!- NewLiberty [~NewLibert@cpe-23-240-155-236.socal.res.rr.com] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 23:17 < bsm117532> Well there are several levels of "storage" which differ by orders of magnitude: L1 cache, L2 cache, DRAM, spinning rust. If each differs by an order of magnitude in capacity, then in principle each can secure a coin, in principle. 23:17 < Taek> I guess at the end of the day it really does just come down to economic power and mobility 23:17 < Taek> You can consider the entire global GDP as resources that could be reallocated to attacking Bitcoin 23:18 < Taek> but it may take a year or two to build enough specialized hardware to actually pull off an attack 23:18 < Taek> The difference between that and multi-coin GPU mining is the spin-up and spin-down time 23:19 < bsm117532> Taek: It's hard to estimate the "external threat", but at a protocol level, I'm working on a "high water mark" basis which defines the confirmation times, and the estimation of how secure your network is. (e.g. the highest hashrate you've ever seen -- which implies that hashrate is generally increasing) 23:20 < bsm117532> e.g. if the hashrate now is 0.1 but you previously saw it at 10, you know it's trivial for the 99% attacker to construct a new chain. Transactions should never be confirmed. 23:21 < bsm117532> Also, adjust your coin allocation accordingly... 23:21 -!- frankenmint [~frankenmi@67-5-211-132.ptld.qwest.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:21 < Taek> That's assuming that your coin is worth attacking still 23:22 < Taek> if the valuation has dropped, or if the activity has dropped, etc, it may simply be more expensive to attack the coin than the reward is worth 23:24 < bsm117532> When confirmation times are conflated hashpower, we're stuck with that. 23:25 < Taek> It's not trivial for the 99% attacker to build a new chain though 23:25 < Taek> they still have to spend money to actually do it 23:25 -!- blackwraith [~priidu@unaffiliated/priidu] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:26 -!- lvns [~lvns@pool-68-132-23-128.nycmny.fios.verizon.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:26 < bsm117532> Well, when your security parameter is 50%, and you know for an absolute fact that there exists an entity that is willing and capable of reallocating resources to provide > 50% of the currently observed hashpower...one should not in good conscience confirm any transactions. 23:27 < Taek> I'm stuck on the 'is willing' part 23:27 -!- NewLiberty [~NewLibert@cpe-23-240-155-236.socal.res.rr.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:27 < bsm117532> So tie a function to 'is willing', and put it into your "confirmatoin" function. 23:27 -!- priidu [~priidu@unaffiliated/priidu] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 23:27 -!- MaxSan_ [~one@46.19.137.116] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:27 < Taek> I can see an incentive to execute a 51% attack - you get 100% of the block rewards - except you have to commit at least as many resources as all your competitors combined, which means you're still spending more resources than your competitors think the mining is worth 23:27 < bsm117532> It's entirely possible to confirm transactions if "is willing" < 50% 23:28 < bsm117532> No asset exists in a vacuum. Miners will always reallocate their resources (if possible) among assets to maximize profits. 23:29 < bsm117532> At a protocol level, it's impossible to know the situation with respect to external assets. 23:31 < bsm117532> I'm really struggling to come up with a "third" mining function (aside from CPU -- Bitcoin and memory -- Ethereum). 23:31 < Taek> short term memory and long term memory are effectively completely different resources 23:31 < bsm117532> Best I've been able to come up with is to wedge yourself into a particular niche of hardware that is super-efficient at mining your coin because of the size of L1/L2/memory/storage. 23:32 < bsm117532> exactly. 23:32 -!- PaulCape_ [~PaulCapes@204.28.124.82] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 23:32 < bsm117532> But there you're often a factor of 2, getting an order of magnitude is extremely difficult. 23:33 < Taek> But like, sha2 and sha3 are also effectively entirely different resources. You need completely different hardware to efficiently do either 23:33 < bsm117532> Why? Because no one has put sha3 into an ASIC yet? 23:34 < Taek> sha3 asics can't be pointed at the bitcoin network 23:35 < Taek> if I have $1 billion in sha3 asics, it does nothing to help me 51% Bitcoin 23:35 -!- PaulCapestany [~PaulCapes@204.28.124.82] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 23:35 < bsm117532> Yes. So it seems to me that the optimal situation is to target a new hash function that is CPU, not memory-bound. 23:36 < bsm117532> A memory-bound function will always allow a cheap CPU with lots of memory to be retargeted to any memory-bound function. 23:37 -!- ThomasV [~ThomasV@unaffiliated/thomasv] has quit [Ping timeout: 258 seconds] 23:37 < bsm117532> In the beginning, there are no ASICs. But your coin is not secure until there are ASICs...and they're not all controlled by one entity... 23:37 < Taek> well, there's some question as to whether you can create memory which can more efficiently handle a single function 23:38 < bsm117532> For memory-bound functions we're talking factors of 2...who cares. I need orders of magnitude. 23:38 < Taek> are you sure that's the theoretical limit? What if there's some breakthrough in memristor technology? 23:39 < bsm117532> I make no claims about memristors, quantum computers, aliens, or dragons. 23:39 < bsm117532> At least one of those things might be real. 23:40 < Taek> I don't know enough about the tech to know how big of an assumption it is to assume they don't exist given a $XXX million bounty 23:41 < bsm117532> Well, memristors exist, but are not practical. Quantum computers exist, but are confused, and not quantum (the biggest example is D-Wave which is an annealing, non-quantum process). No comment on the other two... 23:42 < bsm117532> In the quantum realm, entropy sucks... Time will tell. 23:46 < bsm117532> I *really* want to come up with a third option for mining. 23:49 < Taek> Why? I hold the opinion that we really only want one blockchain 23:49 < Taek> if all applications are using the same blockchain, they are reinforcing eachother 23:49 < Taek> you can't reorg one of them without reorging all of them, which contains something of a MAD component 23:50 < Taek> but it also just means that it takes more resources overall to mount an attack 23:51 < Taek> and it also makes it more difficult to fully exploit the attack. It's one thing to double-spend Bitcoin. But if to get the full benefit of the attack you need to double spend Bitcoin, do a proof re-roll on Sia, deanonymize Monero, etc, then you're going to have a harder time mounting an attack 23:53 < Taek> and if you are willing to give up SPV, it's pretty trivial to get everyone on the same blockchain by allowing arbitrary data in the transactions --- Log closed Sun Jun 12 00:00:10 2016