--- Log opened Sat Apr 29 00:00:39 2017
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01:51 < fluffypony> djb has a new quantum factoring algo
01:51 < fluffypony> https://eprint.iacr.org/2017/352
01:51 < fluffypony> "Uses fewer logical qubits than Shor; heuristically asymptotically breaks RSA faster than NFS"
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02:03 < Eliel> fluffypony: except the constant qubit requirement is apparently unclear enough that they can't tell if this algorithm will actually require less qubits than Shor for 2048 bit RSA keys.
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03:24 < fluffypony> Eliel: yeah seems a bit of a thumb suck
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11:43 < Taek> I have a thought experiment regarding something that has been bothering me quite a bit.
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11:44 < Taek> Amazon has an annual revenue of about $135B
11:44 < Taek> and the stock has a market cap of about $440B
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11:45 < Taek> What would happen to the market cap of the stock if Amazon suddenly required that all payments to Amazon be done using Amazon stock
11:45 < Taek> (which is essentially how some cryptocurrency projects operate)
11:46 < Taek> There'd be $135B (disregarding the amount of customers they might lose) of buy pressure on the Amazon stock
11:46 < Taek> every year, and there'd be a lot of speculators recognizing this gap and getting in early to ride the wave to the top
11:46 < Taek> and probably hodlers, etc.
11:46 < Taek> so it seems not unreasonable that the market cap would be pushed into the trillions
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11:47 < Taek> but in this experiment we haven't actually added value anywhere
11:47 < Taek> we've created this giant bubble that's entirely propped up by $135B of buy pressure plus whatever speculative mania ensues
11:48 < belcher> on the other hand, the stock market is enforced by the legal system, cryptocurrencies can never be equity in the same way, your token cant force a management change or anything like that
11:48 < Taek> you are not wrong, but I don't see how that applies
11:50 < Taek> the giant buy pressue that we've created in this hypothetical scenario comes entirely from the fact that we're forcing people to buy stock (perhaps even special stock with no vote priviledges) just to interact with us
11:50 < belcher> yes ok, on the other hand amazon sells stuff that most people want to buy, do these alts do that (genuinely asking, i havent been following them)
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11:50 < Taek> you need eth to paricipate in an appcoin ico
11:51 < Taek> so at the very least, there's fundamental buy pressure on the eth asset for the purpose of ico speculation
11:51 < belcher> i guess eventually people will run out of appetite for ICOs?
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11:52 < Taek> And Sia is another example of this, you need siacoin to buy storage on the platform. Granted, Sia has a market cap of $20M and the fundamental buy pressure is only around $10k per month
11:52 < Taek> but I would expect the multiplier there to always be very high due to speculative involvement
11:52 < andytoshi> i think you want to use profit rather than revenue (and then use apple i guess rather than amazon :)) ... and then i think this is identical to an alternate thought experiment where apple puts 100% of its profit into its own stock
11:53 < Taek> andytoshi: why profit rather than revenue?
11:53 < andytoshi> Taek: because amazon has to somehow pay its suppliers, which would put sell pressure on the stock
11:53 < waxwing> "company store"
11:53 < Taek> true, but if they pay their suppliers every month, then at the very least they are creating this scarcity
11:53 < andytoshi> so in the apple scenario, this is actually a stock buyback, which is a fairly normal thing to do. and it wouldn't cause a runaway market cap because it would reduce the supply of stock
11:54 < Taek> because the sell pressure does not immediately follow the buy pressure
11:54 < Taek> hmm
11:55 < Taek> but also wouldn't you expect people to keep an operating amount of amazon stock so that they don't have to go through the hassle of buying some when the time comes?
11:55 < andytoshi> sure, i'm just saying that the stock that goes into amazon is black-holed and no longer contributes to market cap
11:56 < andytoshi> i guess not necessarily, they can hoard stock without deissuing it
11:56 < andytoshi> but i think this is a technical thing that would cause distortions in what "market cap" means, but nothing more than that
11:59 < andytoshi> i saw on reddit you complained about ICO pricing where the "market cap" does not include founders' tokens, misleading investors into thinking they're getting in at a lower price point than they really are...which sounds true, but also sounds analogous to "you're being lied to when you buy amazon stock because tomorrow they could issue enough to quadruple the supply, screwing you", which sounds
11:59 < andytoshi> false
11:59 < Taek> I'm still gathering my thoughts, but if the market cap runs too far away from the actual amount of value in the system, then you get a really severe boom-bust cycle
12:01 < Taek> Admittedly I'm not super familiar with all the regulations and rules surrounding stock issuance, but I believe that sufficent dilution introduced into the ecosystem by Amazon would result in legal action
12:01 < Taek> hmm. I think that most stock has anti-dilution protection of some kind
12:02 < Taek> maybe not for publicly traded stock though
12:03 < Taek> but the company analogy also goes farther. Unissued shares in a company are different from founder owned shares
12:03 < Taek> When you calculate the valuation of a company like Uber, you include all of the shares that the founders own
12:03 < Taek> what gets excluded is the shares that they could print to do more funding rounds
12:04 < Taek> but the money they get from printing shares essentially boosts the value of the product by the amount input
12:04 < Taek> If you buy 10% of newly printed shares, you are giving the company a huge boost in operating capital which suppedsly is equal to the value of the shares printed
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12:05 < Taek> when the devs sell shares of something like Gnosis, is that same equation there?
12:05 < Taek> or do they just go to barbados?
12:06 < Taek> and, as a holder of common stock in a public company, I actually benefit when that company gains a ton of new capital, because I have (in a soft sense) claim to that capital
12:06 < Taek> or rather, the company is legally bound to use that capital following the best interests of the shareholders
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12:16 < Taek> I think you are right about the revenue vs. profit thing. The sell pressure on the stock from Amazon needing to pay expenses would ensure at least some liquidity
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12:17 < Taek> so at best you get pressure from the profits, and pressure from the friction that happens between buying the stock, buying the goods, then Amazon paying its expenses
12:17 < Taek> if that cycle takes a month, you get a bonus buy pressure of 1 month's worth of revenue
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--- Log closed Sun Apr 30 00:00:40 2017