2015-11-13.log

--- Log opened Fri Nov 13 00:00:24 2015
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nwilcoxHow much of a concern is the ability of miners to insert "free" transactions into their own blocks?09:02
nwilcoxThey can fill out a block with transactions and recoup all of those fees, pushing the cost of transmission, storage, etc... onto the rest of the network.09:03
zookonwilcox: what's the point of that? A DoS against everyone else?09:03
zookoI've heard that discussed before. I think it might have been by Vitalik in the context of a worse DoS in the context of Ethereum,09:03
zookoVitalik pointed out that the same thing could be done in the context of Bitcoin, although the costs to everyone else were not as bad.09:03
sipanwilcox: if people were scared about that, they should pay higher fees :)09:03
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nwilcoxsipa: that makes sense...  except I'm scared of it but I want someone else to pay high fees. ;-)09:04
sipanwilcox: yeah, that's a bigger issue :)09:04
nwilcoxzooko: There might be many incentives for miners to do this.09:04
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sipaslowing down propagation of blocks may in some cases be advantageous09:05
nwilcoxFor example, if users select fees based on statistics of mined blocks, miners can always pad out any less-than-full block with their own "fake" fees.09:05
zooko*nod*09:06
zookonwilcox: I've heard that discussed recently in the context of client-sde fee-selection algorithms.09:06
nwilcox-or if there are any mechanisms based on block fullness.09:06
zookoI've heard that discussed recently in the contexct of block-size-adjustment algorithms.09:06
zooko:-)09:06
* nwilcox notices that the proposal bramc made in a blog post ignores mined transactions as input to fee selection.09:06
kanzurewhy is that a problem though?09:07
nwilcoxkanzure: Which? Miners "padding blocks" to make the mean/median fees higher?09:07
sipawell, ideally, you look at the mempool only (and how the mempool transactions get confirmed)... mempool+p2prelay+txfees is one closed system for delivering transactions to miners, but there may be other mechanism with other payments that people can use to get transactions to miners09:08
nwilcoxHm. I hadn't thought about how nodes with mempools can notice if txns keep appearing in blocks that they've never seen in their mempool.09:09
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sipanwilcox: miners may for example create very high fee transactions and put them in their own blocks, to make it look like average block fees are higher (of course, this risks losing those fees in case their blocks get reorganized)09:11
nwilcoxsipa: Right, this is one example of how miners may be incentivized to do this.09:12
sipaand the more certain they are they won't be reorganized (=the bigger they are), the more reason they could have to do so09:12
nwilcoxSo this is yet another one of those issues that doesn't seem to present a serious issue today, but it subtly affects many potential designs: do block scaling proposals ever use block size as a metric? do wallets ever use fee statistics in blocks to make fee decisions? etc...09:13
kanzurefee estimation code at the moment usually doesn't exist in any sense beyond fee per kb, afaik09:14
kanzureoh, and priority09:14
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nwilcoxkanzure: Do you say that with a grasp on how many users use which wallet codebases? Is there a wallet market share graph somewhere?09:15
nwilcoxI'm pretty unaware of wallet implementations and their market share.09:15
kanzuremarket share wasn't my concern, just my knowledge of existing implementations09:15
maakunwilcox: market share based on what measurement?09:16
maakui don't think that data exists09:16
kanzuremarket share is irrelevant if no really amazing fee estimation implementation exists anyway :-)09:16
nwilcoxmaaku: Good point.09:16
kanzureso i can safely say 0% market share09:16
nwilcoxhehe...09:16
nwilcoxSo we're pretty confident there aren't a million users hidden behind a proprietary wallet?09:16
kanzurewhy are you asking about proprietary wallets, again?09:16
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kanzurewhat does proprietary have to do with good schemes for fee estimation...?09:17
nwilcoxkanzure: I want to understand the behavior of the system, and I know very little about the user base.09:17
kanzurehuh?09:17
sipakanzure: nothing, but it does have something to do with being observable09:17
sipato us09:17
kanzureproprietary? nah, all of us are reverse engineering wizards. perhaps closed-source web wallets, but users often spot withdrawal transaction fee stuff...09:18
nwilcoxSo if any of you said: "Oh, btw, 98% of all transactions go through Coinbase's web wallet" I would nod and say "oh, ok". And then if you said "we don't know it's fee calculation algorithm" then I would say: "Oh, maybe we can look at historical fee data and learn something about it."09:18
kanzurei believe they had a blog post about their transaction fee schedule09:20
kanzureso... i would start there.09:20
nwilcoxOk, so if I take a step back, it sounds like there's not much concern about miners doing anything "funky" to influence fee selection.09:21
kanzurehuh? you had those concerns moments ago about bram's proposal.09:22
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sipanwilcox: well, if they cared about fees at all, maybe there would be concern. But if they did, it would also be easil fixed by paying more fees :)09:22
nwilcoxOk, that sounds pretty convincing. So I'm not aware of an "systemic disaster" incentive problem, but at worst miners can raise the cost of fees across the network (but only if most fee calculators used this spoofable statistic, which they don't).09:24
nwilcoxJust thought I'd check. ;-)09:24
kanzurewhat's wrong with the spoofing, again?09:25
kanzurethe floor is clearly the cost of miners stuffing transaction fees that get taken by other miners, but is that so bad ?09:25
sipaI do think it's something to keep in mind when designing fee estimation or block rules that are influenced by fees/size...09:25
nwilcoxkanzure: my general concern is "what if there's some incentive + mechanism whose 'natural bound' is soo extreme that Bitcoin would be destroyed long run."09:26
zookoI haven't studied bramc's proposal, but it seems like it would be a nice property of a fee-selection algorithm for a client, that it did not use any information from historical mined fees (except possibly ones that it itself previously paid).09:26
nwilcoxI don't see that in this case.09:26
nwilcoxIf it's a matter of "spoofing statistics changes the fee market, but the system doesn't crash overall" then it's much less of a concern for me.09:26
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nwilcoxOf course, if some particular fee spoofing issue made Bitcoin fees larger than some competition, then that's a kind of secondary concern.09:27
kanzurei'm not sure if you would be capable of detecting fee spoofing anyway09:27
kanzureyou could detect lots of small reorgs at the tip of the chain that seem higher than average, plus you could look at which transactions get included in the alternatives09:28
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bsm1175321Might be of interest: http://blog.sldx.com/can-proof-of-work-be-useful/09:46
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trompbsm1175321: needs a comma after Random Oracle10:48
bsm1175321Thanks tromp, fixed.10:49
trompyou consider centralization of asic manufactoring, but neglect that of cheap power10:52
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bsm1175321Yep.  Don't know what to do about that.10:53
trompopen source renewable power sources:)10:53
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bsm1175321I've got in mind widely distributed mining chips, like in everyone's cell phones. If everyone has to mine their transactions a little bit in order to submit them, the user is effectively subsidizing his own transactions with his power bill. Because no one is going to balk about an extra $0.50 on their power bill, this pushes the relative cost to a dedicated miner way up.11:00
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trompyour article is closely related to two of Pual Sztorc: http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/ and  http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-and-mining/11:01
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trompbsm1175321: if you want to make everyone do some mining, then it should be a more cpu-friendly PoW that benefits little from asics11:03
bsm1175321See my argument in the blog about the "external majority".  I disagree.11:04
bsm1175321CPU mining for everyone is only if you want people to mine today, not if you want to achieve a secure network.11:04
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trompyes, we disagree on that. if a nontrivial fraction of all worldwide cpu power is used for mining, then no-one will control enough to take over11:06
trompit will be too well decentralized (including many botnets)11:07
maakuit's rather undeniable that the security of the network today is far, far less than the cpu or even gpu mining days of 2010, 2011, 201211:07
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bsm1175321I don't think it's reasonable to consider that 50% of all general-purpose CPUs and GPUs will be used for mining.11:07
maakubsm1175321: doesn't have to be. 0.01% is probably sufficient11:07
trompno, of course not 50%. non-trivial would be a fraction of a %11:08
gmaxwellI don't agree with the specifics of bsm's argument; but I don't like tromp's either:  CPU power is not very uniformly distributed. E.g. google probably has more than all private persons combined.11:08
bsm1175321maaku: Then a single virus, co-opting 0.01% of desktop computers, can 51% attack the network.11:08
maakugmaxwell: google's not going to shut down their services to attack bitcoin though11:08
gmaxwellAs far as bsm1175321's argument; _any_ spare energy is 'dark hashpower' up to some time constants related to how long it takes to you fab chips (which just requires energy, ultimately).11:09
bsm1175321Or a single actor like the NSA, Google, etc owning 0.01% of all computing.11:09
zookogmaxwell: there's a potentially useful concept of "idle", under-utilized, resources.11:09
bsm1175321gmaxwell: I agree.  There still exists a 51% attack, but it requires fabrication.  So this is (probably) more secure because reallocating CPUs can be done more quickly and at lower cost.11:09
zookoThat's what worked for Bitcoin, at least, in the early days.11:10
gmaxwellmaaku: "our system is secure so long as google doesn't decide to attack" isn't really that great of an argument. :)11:10
zookoAlthough I suppose it was also obscurity.11:10
zookogmaxwell: "as long as google doesn't decide to expend XYZ $ attacking it", is.11:10
gmaxwellbsm1175321: At best it's a speedbump. Perhaps not worthless, but I think it shouldn't be understated either.11:10
gmaxweller overstated.11:10
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bsm1175321Yep. It's at best a speedbump.11:11
gmaxwellzooko: thats too strict.11:11
bsm1175321So open source hardware.  many manufacturers...11:11
zookogmaxwell: what do you mean?11:11
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gmaxwellimplies an economic argument that may not hold, there is probably a single person you can take at gunpoint to comendeer the bulk of google's infrastructure, at least for a limited time.11:11
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bsm1175321Or a virus/trojan.11:12
gmaxwellso your XYZ should be that cost, not google's energy and oppturnity cost. :)11:12
trompas i said before, both cpu-friendly and asic-friendly pows have their strength, and the best system might be spllitting rewards between 2 such pows11:12
gmaxwelltromp: sorry, yes I was only nitpicking what sounded like an assumption about computing power distribution.11:13
trompgmaxwell: i would still bet that private owned computers outpower all of google's :)11:13
zookoMy thinking about this has... mellowed with age. Like fine scotch. And now I think that maybe the11:14
zookoreason my intuitions are guiding me in a certain direction is that I don't think 100511:14
zooko100% prevention is the sina qua non.11:14
zookoSo, the implicit metric of "What gives us the most plausible chance of zero attacks?" is perhaps not my metric.11:15
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trompalso note that attacking asics doesn not require expending 51% power, just ability to bribe or coerce the known major pools11:16
gmaxwelltromp: I'm doubtful. keep in mind that technology pace means that any hardware more than about 5 years old is greatly diminished in impact.11:16
gmaxwelltromp: thats orthorgonal to asics, and was true before mining asics existed.11:17
trompcpu pows can be expected to have more solo mining and pool diversity11:17
trompsince many will mine at a loss anway11:18
gmaxwellThat wasn't the case for bitcoin; and isn't the case for monero (for example) which has a no-asic-yet pow.11:19
zookoIn general, a 51% attack only costs the mining reward plus epsilon, per Joe Bonneau's "Why buy when you can rent?" argument.11:19
zookoSo a 51% attack today costs 25 Bitcoin times the number of blocks you want to roll back, plus a small bribe.11:20
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zooko...for sufficiently correct definitions of "small".11:20
gmaxwellRight. Though having capitol costs for hardware which is otherwise worthless is a (I think weak) counterargument-- will you rent to someone who will diminish the value of your investment?11:20
zooko*nod*11:20
gmaxwellthis would be a better form of the argument bsm1175321 was trying to present, I think.11:20
trompi guess winning a monero block doesn't feel as much like winning the lottery:)11:20
zookoI think "Why buy when you can rent?" paper spent quite a lot of inches trying to answer the important question: why then are people not rolling-back the Bitcoin blockchain?11:21
zookoI think that's the most important, and completely unanswered, question.11:21
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zookoUnfortunately I have to go (to lunch), and I don't have an IRC client running on a server, so I'll ... I'll try to find the publicly-visible logs of this when I return. Thank you!11:22
gmaxwelltromp: I've spent a lot of time thinking about that; like why don't people solo mine (+ev!) instead of gambling?  I've seen more than a few people saying things like "I want to mine on a PPS pool to get stable payments [...] and now I'm sending all my mining income to satoshi dice for big winnings!"11:22
gmaxwelltromp: I think mining in general doesn't trigger the right risk/reward brain defects that encourage gambling; and instead gets evaluated a different way that encourages stable income.  E.g. instead of pressing a button and then finding out if you win or lose, the computer has to be constantly running.11:23
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gmaxwellBut I'm speculating; ultimately the expectations you have don't seem to be supported by practice. Maybe it's something fundimental or maybe it's inertia or small details that cause that.11:24
trompi admittedly engage in a fair amount of wishful thinking11:25
gmaxwellI see people wigging out in mining about even small amounts of variance (of the sort that would leave their monthly income +/- 1%).11:26
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trompit's easier to argue for cpu-friendly pows in the original setting of spam/flood/ddos control than in the setting of competing for monetary rewards11:26
gmaxwellYes. I agree.11:27
bsm1175321I agree with your points (tromp, gmaxwell).  But I think the next major set of attacks on bitcoin will come from state actors with lots of resources, and the speed bump I point out is somewhat useful.11:27
gmaxwellit has its own costs though, state actors have preferential access to the speedbump.11:28
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trompgoing out for a jog while temperatures are nice. afk...11:28
bsm1175321Yep.  I'm not sure there's anything that could stop a determined state actor with billions.11:28
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