--- Log opened Sun Nov 23 00:00:59 2014
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03:18 < archels> http://www.gravitricity.com/
03:20 < archels> hm, one 100 kilotonne weight raised and lowered over 100 m could supply 1 kW for 24 h
03:20 < archels> that's not so much
03:22 < chris_99> heh, yeah that does seem rather low
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05:17 < kanzure> heath: yeah i don't recommend jenkins at all. don't use it.
05:28 < kanzure> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cancer-patients-driven-darknet-cheap-drugs-120943973.html#B2n9aWn
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05:54 < archels> oh, hah, the FBI is actually serving up "This hidden site has been seized" images on those captured onion sites
05:55 < kanzure> doxbin is only 50% of the time showing that
05:55 < kanzure> the other 50% it is showing doxbin :)
05:57 < cuba_> does it still work?
05:58 < kanzure> haven't tried, but my informants say yes
05:59 < cuba_> the post on the tor mailing lists is quite interesting
06:04 < kanzure> link
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06:18 < cuba_> https://lists.torproject.org/pipermail/tor-dev/2014-November/007731.html
06:18 < paperbot> KeyError: 'title' (file "/srv/ikiwiki/paperbot/modules/papers.py", line 170, in download)
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06:24 < archels> "Kowloon Walled City expressed in php" haha
06:27 < kanzure> .title
06:27 < yoleaux> [tor-dev] yes hello, internet supervillain here
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06:49 < kanzure> salome meshing stuff (related to opencascade) https://github.com/tpaviot/smesh
06:52 < kanzure> "In Finland we have an ongoing FOI request process with Finnish universities. They declined our request for information on licensing fees paid to Elsevier and other publishers, and we have appealed to court. The arguments seem to be on our side however the results are yet to be seen. Preliminary information of the process is available in Finnish at https://github.com/okffi-science/2014-tietopyynto-lisenssimaksut we are planning to blog more ...
06:52 < kanzure> ... on this later."
06:52 < kanzure> "I also heard rumours that Finland recently had similar negotiations with Elsevier than France but no more information on this."
06:52 < kanzure> http://blog.okfn.org/2014/11/11/france-prefers-to-pay-twice-for-papers-by-its-researchers/
06:54 < kanzure> finnish elsevier FOI stuff was via Leo Lahti <leo.lahti@iki.fi>
07:01 < kanzure> http://www.gwern.net/Black-market%20survival "I compile a dataset of 53 black-markets in the vein of the famous Silk Road, recording their openings/closing and relevant characteristics. A survival analysis indicates the markets follow a Type TODO lifespan"... such analysis.
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07:29 < kanzure> .wik mckendree cylinder
07:29 < yoleaux> "A McKendree cylinder is a type of hypothetical rotating space habitat originally proposed at NASA's Turning Goals into Reality conference in 2000 by NASA engineer Tom McKendree. As with other space habitat designs, the cylinder would spin to produce artificial gravity by way of centrifugal force. The design differs from the classical  …" — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McKendree_cylinder
07:29 < kanzure> oh right
07:43 < kanzure> "Organ donation pisses me off. What do I get out of it? What does my family get out of it? Their certainly is money to be had. The insurer, the medical equipment manufacturers, the hospital, probably the doctors, and plenty of other people are getting fat on profit off of my death. I don't even want money. I want my family to be at the top of those lists. My nieces and nephews, parents, children, spouse, and inlaws. The entire set up reeks of ...
07:43 < kanzure> ... hypocrisy and misdirection. I personally refuse to donate because it pisses me off. When you show me a dying kid to shame me into donating, it's my kid that would have to die. It's so insensitive. It doesn't even mean what people say it means. It's insulting that they act as if corneas and skin grafts "save lives." Then I cannot even be paid for giving up my organs. Shit, I just died. What do you think my wife and kid are going through? ...
07:43 < kanzure> ... How is she going to pay off that mortgage on her own? It isn't like we are questioning the ethics of everyone else getting paid in this process. Then you want to force me or trick others into it? It's bullshit."
07:45 < kanzure> .title http://triblive.com/news/allegheny/4408091-74/organ-organizations-procurement#axzz3JrqCZ9ml
07:45 < yoleaux> Gift of life worth millions to donation organizations | TribLIVE
07:46 < kanzure> "So why not create a scenario where a donors surviving heirs are compensated? Place the $100k worth of organs harvested from dad into the estate for his kids. I'm saying take the profits from the hospitals and give it to heirs. You can figuratively and literally let somebody liquidate the purest form of capital any human has when they die, their body."
07:46 < kanzure> "Compensating the donor's family could lead to "accidents" around the house."
07:46 < kanzure> meh that's no different from life insurance though
07:51 < kanzure> "Because the National Organ Transplant Act forbids the creation of binding contracts for organ transplant, steps in the procedure had to be performed roughly simultaneously. Two pairs of patients means four operating rooms and four surgical teams acting in concert with each other. Hospitals and professionals in the transplant community felt that the practical burden of three pairwise exchanges would be too large.[26] ..... A 12-party (six ...
07:51 < kanzure> ... donors and six recipients) kidney exchange was performed in April 2008.[27][28]"
07:51 < kanzure> wtf
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08:19 < kanzure> http://scholarlyoa.com/2014/11/20/bogus-journal-accepts-profanity-laced-anti-spam-paper/
08:20 < kanzure> "A scientific paper titled "Get Me Off Your F****** Mailing List" was actually accepted by the International Journal of Advanced Computer Technology."
08:20 < kanzure> hmmm http://www.scs.stanford.edu/~dm/home/papers/remove.pdf
08:20 < kanzure> not very funny
08:21 < kanzure> oh right, they probably meant the publisher that was spamming them
08:28 < chris_99> shows what a joke some 'publishers' are
08:29 < kanzure> scholarlyoa's whole thesis is that they are just spam rings
08:29 < kanzure> so not even jokes, just typical spammers
08:30 < chris_99> looks like a way to collect money apparently
08:30 < chris_99> "Instead, they automatically accepted the paper — with an anonymous reviewer rating it as "excellent" — and requested a fee of $150."
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08:47 < chris_99> i sent the editor an email, i'm curious if they respond
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09:46 < kanzure> hello Alloran
09:46 < Alloran> hello there
09:47 < kanzure> what brings you here
09:47 < Alloran> i have no idea what this channel is, i just joined a bunch of random ones
09:48 < Alloran> what's it all about?
09:48 < kanzure> see /topic
09:49 < Alloran> oh yeah. so is this like a hypothetical discussion thing or are you guys actually doing this stuff? seems pretty far out
09:49 < kanzure> there are various projects with varying levels of realness
09:49 < Alloran> neat
09:49 < kanzure> are you justanotheruser?
09:50 < Alloran> I'm just me. I'm new on freenode
09:51 < kanzure> oh right, you're not at purdue
09:52 < Alloran> i dont know what that is
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11:19 < fenn> opsec fail
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11:54 < fenn> i never understood why o'neill cylinders had windows - surely it makes more sense to point a telescope at the sun and pipe the light in through the center
11:55 < fenn> otherwise you'd have a light fluctuation with the same period as the cylinder rotation, which is on the order of minutes instead of 24 hours
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11:57 < fenn> also you lose half the internal area to windows, and have to worry about micrometeorites
11:58 < fenn> ah orionsarm gets it right
12:00 < chris_99> http://www.ualberta.ca/~bsuther/papers/procsorrento0998/reprint_style.pdf is really cool
12:00 < chris_99> (Synthetic schlieren)
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12:08 < fenn> gravitricity is good for long-term storage with no leakage, but at such small scales ~24kWh it's not useful as a storage medium, so this means it would be used as a rapid cycing demand buffer similar to how capacitors work in electronic circuits. the same underground volume could store much more energy in high speed flywheels, but they'd need to be stronger in tension than a pile of rocks
12:09 < fenn> energy leakage*
12:11 < fenn> flywheels are more efficient in a vacuum, so you'd want to pump down the whole shaft to vacuum, and section it off for upgrades and maintenance
12:11 < fenn> you could transport the flywheel mass as a long tape through an auxiliary shaft with tape reels
12:13 < fenn> ultra high speed flywheels turn out to share optimal material characteristics with space tethers, since the characteristic velocity is the most important factor determining energy density
12:14 < fenn> it might make sense for orbiting tethers to use flywheels as a power storage buffer between eccentric orbits
12:15 < kanzure> maaku: can you describe your general method or process that you used (or would use) for cost estimation related to brain emulation?
12:16 < fenn> unused tether mass (otherwise used for lifting maximum mass payloads) can be transformed into flywheel mass to increase efficiency of solar power to orbital velocity by eliminating battery storage
12:18 < fenn> since you only boost an eccentric orbit at certain times
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12:21 < kanzure> genehacker: why is nobody using those "mofs" and "sbus" for arbitrary shape synthesis?
12:22 < genehacker> what do you mean by arbitrary shape synthesis?]
12:22 < genehacker> do you mean like molecular polyhedra and stuff?
12:22 < fenn> molecular nanotechy things
12:22 < kanzure> molecular polyhedra stuff
12:22 < genehacker> already been done
12:22 < genehacker> let me find the paper
12:22 < kanzure> for example, arbitrary number of edges and surfaces
12:22 < fenn> seems more useful as scaffolding to me
12:22 < kanzure> different shapes, like extruded three-dimensional alphabet symbols
12:23 < genehacker> http://www.researchgate.net/publication/233957695_Structural_design_principles_for_self-assembled_coordination_polygons_and_polyhedra
12:23 < genehacker> we can do polyhedra
12:23 < genehacker> different shapes, well getting them to self assemble is hard
12:23 < kanzure> what about single-molecule shapes though?
12:24 < genehacker> but some people have suggested that you could do molecular 3d printing with MOFs ;)
12:24 < fenn> paperbot: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/233957695_Structural_design_principles_for_self-assembled_coordination_polygons_and_polyhedra
12:24 < kanzure> right.. you could push different polyhedrons around with a tip.. i guess.
12:24 < genehacker> there is a process to grow MOFs by stamping them
12:25 < genehacker> resolution isn't very high, but point is you can do it
12:25 < fenn> stamping what?
12:26 < fenn> a precursor solid?
12:26 < genehacker> so you know MOFs right?
12:26 < fenn> not really :\
12:26 < kanzure> http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/chemistry/metal-organic-frameworks/
12:26 < genehacker> you got your organic linkers and nodes
12:27 < fenn> i know it's a mildly hierarchical assembly pattern of metal ions and (usually) organic ligands
12:27 < genehacker> linkers are an organic chain with stuff on the end that bonds to metal ions to form nodes
12:28 < fenn> are zeolites MOFs? (or the inorganic equivalent)
12:28 < genehacker> yes
12:29 < genehacker> and they are much harder to synthesize
12:29 < fenn> ok so stamping
12:30 < genehacker> you can spend years trying to synthesize the zeolite you want
12:30 < genehacker> with MOFs you can just find the ligand you want on a chemical site, order it and you're ready to go
12:32 < genehacker> here's some stuff on stamping http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702112700469
12:32 < fenn> paperbot: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702112700469
12:32 < paperbot> http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/paperbot/%0A%20Epitaxially%20grown%20metal-organic%20frameworks%0A%20.pdf
12:33 < fenn> well that's a lie, but it's better than nothing
12:34 < fenn> hey the cover art on materials today is tallakahath's thing (?)
12:35 < fenn> .img http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1369702112X70020-cov150h.gif
12:35 < yoleaux> http://inweh.unu.edu/archive/images/1-s2.0-S1353829212X00030-cov150h.gif (more: http://is.gd/EDsx2J)
12:35 < genehacker> what does tallakahath do?
12:35 < fenn> i guess .img doesn't do reverse image search
12:37 < fenn> carbon nanotubes, 2 photon micro 3d printing http://www.elizabethdecolvenaere.com/research.html
12:37 < genehacker> actually I might be wrong, I don't know if we can grow MOFs layer by layer yet, but there's no reason we shouldn't be able to
12:38 < fenn> file is from 2011
12:38 < genehacker> I just hope no one from st-dd-rt group is in this channel
12:40 < fenn> now you've doomed us all
12:41 < fenn> is this a certain mechanostereochemist at northwestern?
12:42 < genehacker> yes
12:43 < fenn> i wish there were more cross-eye structure illustrations in chemistry
12:47 < kanzure> ah so that was what the party was about last night
12:49 < kanzure> the internet is just a large coincidence detection engine
12:49 < fenn> jello MOF shots?
12:50 < fenn> add quinine for lasing activity
12:50 < kanzure> tallakahath didn't say, busy partying (or giving a campus tour now? i don't know)
12:50 < genehacker> I still want to synthesize edible cd-mof
12:50 < fenn> competitive BBQ?
12:52 < fenn> the materials today cover was from 2012
12:53 < kanzure> well, there's another one apparently
12:53 < fenn> link or it didnt happen
12:53 < fenn> also i hate sciencedirect with a passion
12:53 < kanzure> link will come later ('cause i don't have it)
12:54 < kanzure> this page does not have enough linkjuice:
12:54 < kanzure> "remaining technical challenges for diamondoid mechanosynthesis stuff" http://www.molecularassembler.com/Nanofactory/Challenges.htm
12:55 < genehacker> has that page been updated recently?
12:56 < kanzure> 2009 :(
12:56 < fenn> wtf 27 hits
12:56 < fenn> that must be broken
12:58 < kanzure> oh, 2010. because the patent.
12:59 < fenn> what patent?
13:00 < kanzure> freitas' molecular nanotechnology patent
13:00 < kanzure> "on a method for manufacturing the DCB6 carbon dimer placement tool"
13:02 < fenn> .title https://encrypted.google.com/patents/US8276211
13:02 < yoleaux> Patent US8276211 - Positional diamondoid mechanosynthesis - Google Patents
13:02 < fenn> ^2011 tho
13:02 < kanzure> well, i meant the page update
13:03 < kanzure> filing happened in 2004, page updated in 2010 about the patent for some reason.
13:03 < fenn> http://www.molecularassembler.com/Papers/US7687146.pdf
13:03 < fenn> ^2010
13:03 < kanzure> er, what was the original reason for molecule-scale gears?
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13:04 < fenn> extremism
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13:04 < fenn> MOF legos seems much more feasible
13:04 < kanzure> those are also pretty small, though
13:05 < fenn> or other nanoparticles, there are a lot of different ways to make regular tileable modular structures
13:05 < genehacker> yes
13:05 < kanzure> right... seems to me that you can get most of the way there just by pushing around large polyhedrons.
13:06 < genehacker> and there is this: http://metamodern.com/2009/02/15/nanomaterials-nanostructures-and-stiffness/
13:06 < genehacker> MOFs might not be stiff enough, but their counterparts organic frameworks might be
13:07 < fenn> why can't you just lower the temperature to get rid of thermal fluctuations?
13:07 < fenn> or is there some rate limiting heat generation in the process of assembly that makes this silly
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13:11 < fenn> polyhedrons definitely reduces the "sticky fingers" problem
13:12 < kanzure> i am not sure you really need functionalized tooltips... it is enough to have functionalized molecules that you push around.
13:13 < kanzure> whenever i read stuff from freitas/merkle/drexler i get the sense that a lot of this could be avoided if some chemist greybeard would sit down with them for a few hours
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13:15 < fenn> huh i wonder why bitcoin-wizards in particular was spammed by freenode for dogecoin donations
13:15 < kanzure> yeah i think that was a fluke
13:16 < kanzure> or not freenode-approved
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13:18 < kanzure> so a lot of the tooltip assembly stuff seems to require lots of work on positional accuracy.. but if they would just be okay with 100x larger objects, it would work now.
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13:19  * fenn mumbles something about lego self replicators
13:20 < genehacker> it's been done with magnets and cheating
13:21 < fenn> if you have a sufficiently precisely flat metal plate, and remove all the oil and surface gunk, and put it on another plate similarly prepared, they will spontaneously weld together at room temperature
13:21 < fenn> well, it works for steel at least
13:21 < fenn> apparently this is a problem in high precision machine shops
13:25 < fenn> egads "one starts a program with a small time-lock puzzle which must be solved before the program does anything evil, in the hopes that the antivirus scanner will give up or stop watching before the puzzle has been solved and the program decrypts the evil payload; the puzzle’s math backing means no antivirus software can analyze or solve the puzzle first."
13:26 < fenn> there must be some cute name for this, like "halting hell"
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13:28 < TMA> fenn: with lead the sufficient precision and cleanliness can be easily obtained by an ordinary file -- which makes it a great demonstration for high school physics class
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14:14 < kanzure> here is a thing from eric hunting from a few minutes ago: https://groups.google.com/d/msg/openmanufacturing/IpXb-nUN5w0/QgOYwvRW6cMJ
14:14 < maaku> kanzure: the WBE roadmap + Kurweil curve fitting
14:16 < maaku> kanzure: plus my own assessment that a neural network like simplification of the neural model would not be sufficient for emulation, but rather there exists some degree of complexity at the level of neural cells
14:17 < kanzure> hmm
14:17 < kanzure> so i would think a good estimation should involve things like cost of labor inputs, cost of hardware, cost of software (not all software costs the same, some of it is much more easily built compared to other chunks, and not all chunks are difficult/impossible/as-risky)...
14:18 < maaku> meaning that real-time WBE requires k * O(N + S), where N = number of neurons, S = avg number of connections, and k >> 1
14:18 < maaku> oh definately
14:19 < kanzure> and then natural fudge factors like how terrible we are all at project estimations, hehe
14:19 < maaku> the point was more that even if you assume Moore's law holds, it would be difficult to do WBE before late 2030's at the earliest
14:19 < maaku> and my own inside-view analysis put full recursive AGI before then, so I didn't bother costing WBE more accurately
14:19 < kanzure> hmm, i remember reading some stuff from henry markram that he expects current commodity hardware to be sufficient
14:20 < kanzure> by remember i guess i mean i don't remember. can't think of where i would find that quote from him.
14:23 < fenn> we just don't know which parameters are important
14:23 < fenn> emulation != simulation
14:25 < maaku> fenn: right, but (1) it seems likely to me that simulation will still require a k value >1, if not >>1, and
14:25 < maaku> (2) it seems highly unlikely that we will have learned enough to do such a simulation before we have the capability to do full emulation for testing purposes
14:25 < fenn> we are already doing partial simulations, so you can very accurately estimate that value for whole brain simulations
14:26 < maaku> we are not doing simulations at the level of detail required to learn that kind of information
14:26 < fenn> what kind of information?
14:26 < maaku> how to reduce the level of computation required by orders of magnitude by making non-physical simplifications
14:27 < maaku> it's interesting work, but to me it seems orders of magnitude more difficult that straight artificial general intelligence
14:27 < kanzure> many of the biologically-accurate neuron emulators right now are already using simplifications
14:27 < kanzure> so by difficult what do you mean though
14:27 < fenn> the problem with going from simulations to emulations right now is that we look at the simulation running, and it looks like a simulation, and that's it; you can't ask it "how's it going in there?" because it's basically just a brain slice
14:28 < kanzure> what?
14:28 < kanzure> there are many places you can plug into a human brain and get visual output from either the eyes or a distorted signal from the eyes
14:28 < kanzure> so why wouldn't that be true in non-emulated systems?
14:29 < fenn> all you can do is compare statistical distributions, like "is it in alpha state", which tells you nothing about the qualia or whatever
14:29 < maaku> kanzure: by 'difficult' i mean timeline, ultimately
14:29 < kanzure> hmm
14:29 < kanzure> so,
14:29 < kanzure> can that timeline be accelerated with more parallel work?
14:29 < kanzure> i assume you mean human labor timeline stuff
14:30 < maaku> it is my non-consensus view that we have a workable framework for AGI, one which could be completed a few short years if we had tons of funding, a decade or so otherwise
14:30 < maaku> so I personally see WBE as just so far outside of that time horizon that I don't bother keeping up with it
14:31 < fenn> yeah, well that's just like, your opinion, man
14:31 < maaku> if you think we can do an upload + WBE within ten years, then by all means I'd be happy for you to convince me of it
14:31 < kanzure> that seems totally crazy to me. you should investigate your options before making judgements.
14:31  * fenn abides
14:31 < kanzure> how are you supposed to plan without data
14:31 < kanzure> blah
14:32 < maaku> kanzure: wtf? I just said I made that judgement off of the WBE roadmap
14:32 < fenn> maaku: unfortunately people have been saying that since the dawn of the computer age
14:32 < maaku> fenn: at some point the people saying it will be right. the trick is knowing the difference
14:32  * kanzure looks again at file:///home/kanzure/Downloads/paper_42.pdf
14:32 < fenn> it may actually be true now, but how do we estimate the likelihood of something unprecedented?
14:32 < kanzure> w shit
14:32 < kanzure> aw shit
14:33 < kanzure> (i mean the paper "Bridging the Symbolic/Subsymbolic Gap")
14:33 < maaku> fenn: inside view. for sixty years people have been making those predictions based on hope. "it *feels* like it's ten years away!"
14:34 < kanzure> "inside" of what
14:34 < maaku> (30 years is actually more commonly the prediction -- 30 years is sufficiently far in the future that everything "feels" 30 years away)
14:34 < kanzure> like why do you think minsky hasn't been able to solve this
14:34 < maaku> kanzure: http://lesswrong.com/lw/vz/the_weak_inside_view/
14:34 < maaku> because minsky is not working on a constructivist framework
14:34 < kanzure> maybe minsky is the wrong choice for me to make here
14:35 < maaku> his society of mind theory is a very good analysis tool, but it doesn't result is a workable architecture
14:35 < maaku> as his grad student's work have shown
14:36 < maaku> this, on the other hand, is a decent architecture: http://wiki.opencog.org/w/CogPrime_Overview
14:36 < maaku> and you can walk though Society of Mind or The Emotion Machine and for each chapter figure out how what Minsky is describing could be implemented inside CogPrime
14:37 < kanzure> hmmm http://goertzel.org/MonsterDiagram.jpg
14:38 < kanzure> yeah i don't really buy "minsky has only been motivated to think about society of mind ideas for 40 years"
14:38 < maaku> Now I don't take CogPrime as gospel. I actually think Goertzel made too many simplifications in some parts (e.g. his logical reasoning framework), and the OpenCog implementation is shit.
14:38 < maaku> kanzure: ?
14:38 < kanzure> can you elaborate on the shittyness please?
14:39 < maaku> It's non-recursively self-modifiable, and ill-performant for such general inteligence tasks
14:39 < maaku> OpenCog is basically a grab-bag of narrow AI systems glued together .. which is fine because that's what the CogPrime architecture is about.
14:40 < maaku> But in practice it is important that the subsystems be implemented within a general, reflective environment so that the system can reason about itself
14:42 < maaku> Rather, in OpenCog you have to explicitly re-introduce to the system any aspects of its operation that you want it to reason about, which really makes any self-improvement a mechanical turn operation
14:42 < maaku> *mechanical turk
14:42 < maaku> E.g. in that giant diagram you posted, each box is a separate C++ program that interacts with the data stored in the center box, the atomspace
14:43 < maaku> I would much rather have those implemented within the system, using its own virtual machine language such that the specialized programs are themselves part of the atomspace
14:44 < kanzure> and then interrupts trigger different programs in that pool of "stored vectors"?
14:44 < maaku> Effectively
14:45 < maaku> Not really interrupts -- there's a concept of "attentional allocation currency", and a bidding market for CPU time
14:45 < maaku> so really there's thousands, or tens of thousands of processes in motion, and the task switcher jumps between those which offer the most attentional currency
14:45 < maaku> but that's deep in the weeds
14:46 < maaku> I could criticise just about every component of the monster diagram, in terms of how it is implemented in OpenCog, but the diagram itself I mostly adhere to
14:46 < fenn> maaku: people have been saying "10 years away" for forever, not "30 years away"
14:47 < maaku> It's an architecture which would work, and which could be implemented in 5-10 years
14:47 < kanzure> how do you know it would work?
14:47 < fenn> how do you arrive at this number?
14:47 < maaku> fenn: https://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf
14:48 < fenn> what.
14:48 < kanzure> okay, so you're saying "since everyone sucks at making predictions, i can make any prediction i want"?
14:48 < fenn> "using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions" seriously?
14:48 < fenn> this is not the sort of thing you just do a cochrane review and take the average value
14:49 < kanzure> i blame steve
14:49 < maaku> kanzure: I pulled out a psych textbook, and society of mind, and flipped through the pages. and was surprised to find that I could figure out how each aspect of human thought could work in the CogPrime architecture
14:49 < kanzure> his name isn't on this paper but i blame him anyway
14:49 < maaku> kanzure: no, read the paper. the point is that for certain predictions asking experts is the worst possible thing you can do to get a reliable estimate (arrival of AGI falls in this category)
14:50 < maaku> the weak inside view is the alternative : http://lesswrong.com/lw/vz/the_weak_inside_view/
14:50 < kanzure> that doesn't mean ask non-experts or make up numbers
14:50 < kanzure> it means you suck at estimating
14:50 < fenn> obviously, since the experts have been saying "in the next 10 years" for the last 60 years
14:51 < kanzure> i think maaku is just trying to say "nobody has even tried to be comprehensive"
14:51 < kanzure> "with the exception of opencog"
14:52 < kanzure> just because nobody has tried to be comprehensive does not mean that you gain magical estimation powers....
14:52 < maaku> kanzure: yes, essentially
14:53 < maaku> i haven't seen any other system except Novamente/OpenCog/CogPrime which tries to be comprehensive
14:54 < kanzure> haha that paper cites dani eder
14:54 < fenn> that "weak inside view" article was pointless
14:54 < maaku> i've done my independent analysis of CogPrime, and am mostly in agreement that it would work as advertised
14:55 < kanzure> and this agreement is based on "i have taken an index of things i found in a psychology textbook, and found plausible implementations of those things in the proposed software architecture that could account for those things"?
14:55 < maaku> yup. i could be wrong!
14:56 < maaku> but what else would you suppose I do?
14:56 < fenn> say "i don't know"
14:56 < kanzure> more carefully evaluate the costs and plausibility-risks of emulation/simulation
14:56 < kanzure> that is what i would suppose you to do
14:57 < kanzure> having said that,
14:57 < kanzure> when i last looked at opencog it was a giant pile of software
14:57 < kanzure> sprawling everywhere
14:57 < maaku> kanzure: ok answer me this: is there any plausible scenario where WBE could be achieved within 10 years?
14:57 < kanzure> if you believe your implementation ideas can be expressed more concisely than opencog's, that might be advantageous even if it tunrs into 6 months of wasted programming
14:57 < kanzure> yes, i think 10 years is more than enough time
14:58 < fenn> if "braincoin" economically incentivizes neural emulation asics...
14:58 < kanzure> also, i would argue that whole brain may be unnecessary and this might save a lot of effort
14:58 < kanzure> (partial brain etc)
14:58 < maaku> kanzure: ok. i'm willing to be convinced of that, although IRC is probably the wrong medium.
14:58 < kanzure> irc is a fine medium for it, i just don't have any data prepared to show you
14:59 < kanzure> if i was to show you numbers and estimates, what things were most concerning to you in the past for that sort of direction?
14:59 < maaku> my own reading (e.g. the WBE roadmap) put the lower bound much further out than 10 years (20 or so), so in comparison with a CogPrime-like AGI approach, not relevant
14:59 < maaku> but if i'm wrong on that, sure I'd be open to considering WBE
14:59 < kanzure> hmm was that in a section of that roadmap. i should have that memorized huh..
15:00  * kanzure looks
15:00 < maaku> kanzure: there's a table near the back with timelines assuming various computational targets
15:00 < fenn> again you're basing your estimate of "CogPrime-like AGI" arrival on what?
15:00 < maaku> which is essentially just kurzweilian curve fitting
15:01 < kanzure> oh, the appendix of large-scale neural network simulations?
15:01 < maaku> fenn: my own analysis of what it'd take to implement a proto-AGI for my purposes (sudo build me a nanofactory)
15:01 < kanzure> yeah that's shit and they should feel morally bad that they implied that table was relevant.... they could have just done an index of cpu cost or something.. bleh.
15:01 < fenn> maaku don't you see that that's just pure planning fallacy though?
15:02 < kanzure> i suppose it is relevant because of the topic, of course, but i mean it's not relevant for specifically estimating brain emulation itself.... e.g., blue brain project has a >$1 billion euro budget now, parallelism works and helps.
15:02 < kanzure> maybe i should pester anders/todd about that. hrm.
15:03 < maaku> fenn: I've been project manager for many projects, and received certificational training on PM techniques.. which doesn't mean I'm wrong, but I did account for that :P
15:03 < kanzure> that's a non-answer
15:03 < maaku> besides it doesn't matter here, the same fallacy applies to estimates of WBE
15:03 < maaku> kanzure: ?
15:03 < kanzure> estimation of the feasibility of brain emulation are very different from estimates of feasibility of something never achieved before
15:04 < fenn> to predict brain emulation you make a small number of assumptions and do quantitative prediction based on known quantitative trends
15:04 < kanzure> "it may actually be true now, but how do we estimate the likelihood of something unprecedented?"
15:05 < fenn> to predict AGI you make a huge pile of assumptions and then wave hands around based on previous predictions
15:06 < fenn> the large number of permutations of assumptions accounts for the spread in AGI timeline prediction, but it doesn't account for the huge optimistic bias
15:07 < fenn> (by AGI researchers)
15:07 < kanzure> i find it very strange that i am championing a conservative approach to an engineering project...
15:08 < fenn> my bad, apparently non-experts have the same huge optimistic 15-25 year bias
15:10 < maaku> kanzure: I hardly think they're comparable. For one they achieve different goals.
15:10 < kanzure> hmm, also: suppose that brain emulation happens. i think that a working emulation or simulation will accelerate non-brain-related agi progress significantly, especially through the "delete parts of the emulation until it stops working" method.
15:10 < maaku> kanzure: I want "sudo make me a nanofactory". How do I get that with the WBE approach?
15:11 < maaku> I upload someone, having them recursively improve themselves, then ask them to design me one?
15:11 < maaku> How do you do that without being a gigantic risk?
15:12 < maaku> What I'm saying is I don't think the WBE is as risk or uncertainty free as you make it out to be.
15:12 < kanzure> by risk you mean superweapon risk, or feasibility failure type risk
15:13 < kanzure> +do
15:13 < maaku> The standard AI safety risks
15:13 < maaku> E.g. how do you trust the machine?
15:15 < maaku> it's solveable, but there's a whole host of issues here
15:15 < kanzure> i am not particularly worried about grey goo
15:15 < maaku> i'm not talking grey goo
15:15 < kanzure> or uh, walls of interstellar computronium killing everything
15:16 < kanzure> always seemed like a non-statement to me
15:16 < kanzure> yes, it is true that bad things are bad when they happen
15:16 < maaku> kanzure: when you say WBE do you mean uploading? starting with an actual human?
15:16 < kanzure> no, but i'm open to that route
15:17 < maaku> ok if you're not talking uploading then I don't know how what you're saying is any different than AGI
15:17 < kanzure> it involves lots of study and copying of existing implementations
15:17 < maaku> if you are talking uploading, then you're actually enabling many of the nightmarish MIRI concerns
15:18 < kanzure> yes
15:18 < kanzure> it often surprises people to learn that singinst is anti-transhumanist
15:18 < kanzure> but it should be obvious? they practically yell it constantly, just not in those words...
15:18 < maaku> (aside: for some time I've wanted to make them a "death clock" that counts the number of people that have died through their inaction)
15:19 < maaku> ok so IF we are talking uploading, there are two concerns:
15:19 < kanzure> so you are suggesting that non-uploading brain emulation/simulation is agi?
15:19 < maaku> (1) upload who? I don't think I can find anyone I'd trust, including myself
15:20 < kanzure> i think i have already established that i don't believe in the ai trust shit
15:20 < fenn> neuromorphic AI
15:20 < maaku> (2) even if we did upload the perfect somebody, the recursive self-improvement process is not guaranteed to be stable with respect to that person's values
15:20 < kanzure> let's assume that FAI is impossible
15:21 < kanzure> and i'm still gonna do things anyway
15:21 < maaku> (I dislike MIRI because they apply this argument generally, but in this specific case it really is a concern.)
15:21 < kanzure> you could argue that it is immoral of me to take action in a universe where FAI is impossible, but meh
15:21 < fenn> definitely not stable if you start deleting shit randomly
15:21 < fenn> "wow suddenly i don't have empathy, yay!"
15:22 < fenn> kanzure: your existence offends my ethics, sir
15:22 < kanzure> i know
15:22 < kanzure> happens often around these parts
15:23 < maaku> kanzure: let's not get distracted by an anti-MIRI rant
15:23 < maaku> we're on the same page there
15:23 < kanzure> 15:21 <@kanzure> user_: it is immoral for you to take action in a universe where FAI is impossible. yes/no?
15:23 < kanzure> 15:22 < user_> "no": in that setting "immoral" doesn't quite mean anything
15:23 < maaku> but in this particular case i think the argument has merit
15:23 < fenn> lol that was so fast
15:24 < kanzure> 15:23 < user_> see case #5 of http://lesswrong.com/lw/khf/six_plausible_metaethical_alternatives/
15:24 < kanzure> heh wei dai
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15:24 < maaku> Right now at this point in time the only research MIRI is doing is on the value drift problem, and all they've accomplished is to show that it reduces to some very, very hard comp sci problems
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15:25 < kanzure> 15:25 < user_> you might like posting that or something else from http://lesswrong.com/user/Wei_Dai/submitted/ into that discussion
15:25 < fenn> in other circles we call this "analysis paralysis"
15:25 < maaku> So I wouldn't dismiss it. You start rewiring a human brain, or simplifying the simulation (for performance reasons), who knows what kind of monster you'd end up with
15:25 < kanzure> i did not dismiss it though
15:26 < kanzure> i fully agree that powerful machines can do nasty stuff
15:26 < kanzure> (and probably will do nasty stuff)
15:26 < fenn> you're all a bunch of plant murderers
15:26 < maaku> Right but you say partial emulation may be enough. I'm saying you're going to have to solve this problem before you attempt cutting corners
15:27 < kanzure> "this problem" = sorry i just lost context.. :(
15:27 < fenn> the ethics drift problem
15:27 < kanzure> i think i did get distracted by the MIRI rant
15:27 < kanzure> oh, i consider ethics drift to be MIRI stuff
15:28 < kanzure> 15:27 < user_> the "died through inaction" thing is generally covered by astronomical waste arguments
15:28 < kanzure> 15:27 < user_> it's not *nice*, it breaks a lot of generally-depended-upon *precedents*, to prioritize the interests of people in the future over people in the present
15:29 < kanzure> 15:29 < user_> but if you're already arguing about large abstract utilitarian things anyway, talking about the fact that there are like 10^absurd times as many people in the potential future as in the present doesn't break the precedents *as much*
15:30 < maaku> how come kanzure's comments are prefixed with "15:29 < user_>" ?
15:30 < fenn> he's talking to a MIRI person on another network
15:30 < kanzure> lesswrong/miri informant
15:30 < kanzure> i'm pleased that you think i would say those things, maybe
15:31 < kanzure> maybe not so pleased
15:31 < kanzure> er, i'm still curious about how you think that emulation/simulation is the same as your agi plans
15:31 < kanzure> er, specifically, in the absence of uploading
15:31 < kanzure> i think that is your current claim
15:31 < kanzure> it might be a correct claim, i'm just curious to hear your thoughts behind that one..
15:34 < kanzure> when you say uploading i think of things like "taking a known human brain and doing non-destructive or destructive scanning and then seeding an emulation/simulation with data extracted from the scanning process"
15:35 < kanzure> and non-uploading would be things like, "working from general knowledge and first principles extracted from previous neuroscience research, here's some stuff that is pretty okay to start with" and, failing that, resorting to high-resolution scans...
15:37 < kanzure> on a related note, it's pretty funny to see stephen reed showing up in -wizards
15:39 < kanzure> .title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIlcLPJqvvA
15:39 < yoleaux> Advanced Minecraft Presents: 2b2t - the world's worst server - YouTube
15:39 < kanzure> (minecraft entertainment stuff)
15:48 < maaku> http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTgzNjY
15:48 < maaku> 1tflop for <$200
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16:16 < fenn> "it can do something like 2 trillion 32bit integer multiplies per second" and has 8GB onboard ram, TDP 270W though :\
16:16 < fenn> the pci-e form factor is a pain in the ass for my uses
16:29 < kanzure> "My Chinese input software gives three possibilities when I type in "wei dai": not bring, microstrip, and grave danger."
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16:42 < catern> that minecraft video
16:42 < catern> definitely postapocalyptic
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17:34 < fenn> WILL HE BE MURDERED? Stay tuned!
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17:40 < kanzure> "grave danger" seems like such a steve name
18:06 < kanzure> "the only source of actual competence is insiders" well that's problematic
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18:25 < kanzure> fenn: re your thing abut minecraft/bitcoin, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8639962
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18:38 < fenn> wow this is way more creative than i was thinking https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BitVegas
18:41 < kanzure> and what were you thinking?
18:41 < fenn> literally mining bitcoins
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19:00 < fenn> neal stephenson strikes again http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reamde
19:01 < kanzure> i'm just going to be disappointed aren't i
19:01 < fenn> probably
19:02 < kanzure> "that's not how you make demands! ugh"
19:02 < fenn> apparently after writing this book he decided to go make a video game
19:12 < fenn> since mojang specifically prohibits buying in-game items/powers with "real world money" i expect this to either go underground or switch to a different mmorpg (or both)
19:13 < fenn> wasn't the whole point of farmville to do this sort of thing?
19:13 < fenn> except you have 0 chance of getting any money back
19:13 < kanzure> i'm afraid farmville fandom doesn't intersect this community much
19:14 < fenn> i know, but for a very long time there was no money in video games, and now it's like 90% of people who play games play pay-to-play
19:14 < fenn> like, zynga came out of nowhere and ruined everything
19:14 < fenn> but i don't really get why it was a new thing
19:15 < fenn> "10 million daily active users within six weeks of launch"
19:15 < fenn> that's rhodonculous
19:16 < kanzure> why is that ridiculous?
19:17 < fenn> it's a really fast growth rate
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19:17 < kanzure> that's for just the game
19:17 < kanzure> zynga had prior games
19:18 < kanzure> so they had a bunch of users they were leveraging
19:25 < kanzure> and uh spending a bunch of money on ads
19:26 < kanzure> heh they were spammers (had users install malware, etc)
19:27 < kanzure> mystery solved
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20:37 < kanzure> "My main problem with it is that ESR is unable to differentiate between being a good programmer and being ESR."
20:49 < kanzure> http://lesswrong.com/lw/gd3/outline_of_possible_sources_of_values/
21:02 < nmz787> paperbot: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/224212753_Projection_and_Geodesic-Based_Pipe_Routing_Algorithm/file/5046352386fa9aef4e.pdf
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23:57 < ebowden> Oh, hey juri_.
--- Log closed Mon Nov 24 00:00:00 2014