--- Log opened Sun Jan 29 00:00:28 2023
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12:58 < juri_> work faster, everyone.
13:01  * L29Ah twiddles his thumbs faster
13:04  * juri_ glares.
13:13 < superkuh> We're all limited to about 11 Hz twitch/twiddle by the cerebellum.
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14:09 < lsneff> Hi juri_!
14:55 < muurkha> aren't there Tetris master techniques that reach higher frequencies of motor oscillation?
15:18 < kanzure> that's a lot of black holes https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ac34fb
16:43 < kanzure> "ASML is the world’s only producer of machines that use extreme ultraviolet lithography to make advanced semiconductor chips. The Dutch government has prohibited ASML from exporting that equipment to China since 2019, but the company had still been shipping lower-quality lithography systems to China."
16:44 < kanzure> nice that basically all of our advanced semiconductor chips rests on a single company that won't bother to make 1,000 fold redundant backups of its arcane knowledge
16:46 < kanzure> "The world is reliant on ASML for technological progress, as it is the only company in the world that can produce this critical equipment." <---
16:47 < kanzure> apparently it started with immersion lithography (<90 nm) which ran the competitors out of business
16:49 < kanzure> "ASML has no competitors in EUV lithography. It does, however, have competitors in lithography in general. These competitors are working to catch up with ASML’s EUV technology. Industry forecasts see Nikon and SMEE getting there in 2025."
16:50 < L29Ah> > basically all of our advanced semiconductor chips rests on a single company
16:50 < L29Ah> that's false
16:51 < L29Ah> you only need EUV for <10nm or so, and it wasn't a thing 10 years ago, and today this is a small minority of manufactured chips
16:53 < kanzure> is there another company where i can purchase ~45nm immersion lithgoraphy equipment?
16:53 < kanzure> *lithography
16:55 < L29Ah> idk, likely at least TSMC
16:55 < kanzure> TSMC outsources it to ASML
16:55 < L29Ah> also lithography isn't exactly rocket science
16:57 < L29Ah> Intel Pentium 4 started at 180nm, and i'd say it's an advanced semiconductor chip
17:29 < lsneff> I wonder how we'll be making chips in 2050
17:29 < lsneff> Still photolitthography?
17:33 < lsneff> Molecular nanotech :P
17:51 < maaku> 2050 seems squarely in the molecular nanotech regime
17:51 < maaku> i think that's a pretty conservative statement
17:53 < maaku> lsneff: yes I've read Revlation Space, though I'm sure we've had a convo about this at some point
17:53 < maaku> still need to read Inhibitor Phase
17:54 < maaku> his Pushing Ice is also good
17:56 < lsneff> Ah, you're right, we have talked about this before
17:56 < lsneff> Big fan of all his books
17:56 < lsneff> "2050 seems squarely in the molecular nanotech regime" I'm sure people would said that back in the '80s wrt 2020s.
18:01 < maaku> you're right I think that prediction was too strong
18:01 < maaku> I think though that some sort of atomically precise electronics will be standard for top-tier electronics in 2050
18:01 < maaku> might not be drexlarian molecular nanotechnology though
18:02 < maaku> I think when people predicted nanotech by year 2000 or 2025 or whatever, those were over optimistic timelines assuming focused investment, which didn't happen
18:02 < maaku> but there is massive investment in electronics, and an industry roadmap that has been a self-fulfilling prophecy for the past 50-ish years
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18:03 < maaku> I don't see how it could keep going unless it got to atomic precision in the 2040's, and there is so much momentum and structural incentives to push that industry forward
18:05 < maaku> So I expect that by 2050 the top electronics manufacturing processes would be carbon nanotube based, or something like that.
18:06 < lsneff> Yeah, i can't see an alternative
18:06 < lsneff> I keep hearing things on twitter about how we'll need to switch to reversible electronics by the 2040s
18:07 < maaku> lsneff: and yeah I find alastair reynolds refreshing. hard sci-fi, but largely without AI or climate doomerism
18:07 < maaku> House of Suns is on my short list to read soon
18:07 < lsneff> I asked michael p. frank for some background on reversible computing, and I honestly can't see anyone switching to it aside from maybe niche usecases or accelerators
18:08 < maaku> reversable computing is like quantum computing.very important in niche use cases, but I don't see us switching to it for everything for a very long time
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18:24 < lsneff> I bet we could start producing atomically precise chips at scale with hydrogen passivation lithography with another five years of investment, but going from 2d to 3d atomically precise manufacturing is a completely different story
21:50 < hprmbridge> nmz787> DSA (directed self assembly) etch resist is getting better and better. Carbon nanotubes have continued being hit research for at least two decades. 2D materials at least a decade if not two. Things have finally started to look possible to work on integrating them together.  Unfortunately it requires consumers to continue supporting the innovation by upgrading phones/laptops often.
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--- Log closed Mon Jan 30 00:00:29 2023