--- Log opened Wed Mar 22 00:00:17 2023
02:32 < hprmbridge> eleitl> fenn: large scale power production in orbit is irrelevant on the short to middle run, and the problem with failing to avoid falling into the energy trap that there is no long term as far as a technological civilization is concerned. The interesting part is how we can reliably avoid the energy trap, which is not at all obvious to me. I'm not taking black swans into account here, just what we know.
02:36 < hprmbridge> eleitl> U.S. seems to be busily failing like everybody else, so who has access to which fabs doesn't matter much. Looking at the ongoing current conflict, precision smart weapons (like neural control instead of FPV and GPS-guided munitions) which are unreasonably effective don't need very advanced processes. They need to be mass-produced so also cheap enough, so nothing too advanced.
02:40 < hprmbridge> eleitl> muurkha: deep geothermal is very effective (for heating, not power generation since Carnot efficiency very low) where geology is favorable, and in the very few hot spots (like Iceland) geothermal is the best thing there is. For everything else solar PV kills everything else (very windy and low-insolation locations excluded, Patagonia will probably be a good location for that).
02:42 < hprmbridge> eleitl> The place I rent out is heated by deep geothermal. They used to run a Kalina cycle turbine for electrical, but shut it down 2017 https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermiekraftwerk_Unterhaching
02:48 < hprmbridge> eleitl> muurkha: right now home electric storage is about 1 EUR/Wh, despite the cells themselves being an order of magnitude cheaper. I'm not sure whether this is due to power electronics or just the market being nascent. You can run a lot on 48 V and DC/DC converters, though you can't use standard residential wiring for much, since losses would be too high/fire hazard for higher loads. EV is all high-
02:48 < hprmbridge> eleitl> voltage DC nowadays, which won't happen in residential for a long time for legal reasons.
02:53 < hprmbridge> eleitl> Perry: sodium-ion batteries seem to be slowly coming, so far in China. Power density is now comparable to lithium batteries, other parameters are superior. I'll believe in them when I can buy products based on them.
02:59 < hprmbridge> eleitl> Perry: d'accord on mono Si being the winner for time being. Potential efficiency boost via multilayer (e.g. perovskite if made stable). Current panels already are glass-glass encapsulated, so not that much moisture and oxygen to deal with.
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03:28 < hprmbridge> eleitl> An example of how much the PV panels cost vs. current total key-ready installation (Germany): 10 kWp (25 panels, no storage, 10 kW inverter) are some 15 kEUR total (tax being temporarily waived), of which panels cost some 3.4 kEUR. Scaling is obvious much better for larger installations, where you can also use automation instead of manual labor.
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03:46 < hprmbridge> eleitl> FYI, a domestic installation which can almost-but-not-quite cover seasonal scale storage (20 kWh electric, 100+ kWh hydrogen) of surplus solar PV is ~100 kEUR.
04:19 < hprmbridge> eleitl> The inverter for above 10 kW example installation is 1.1 kEUR. So really 2/3rds of the cost is the labor, which in Germany is unavoidable due to regulations.
04:21 < L29Ah> socialism is unecological
04:23 < hprmbridge> eleitl> AI h4x0rs: https://www.anandtech.com/show/18780/nvidia-announces-h100-nvl-max-memory-server-card-for-large-language-models
04:24 < hprmbridge> eleitl> L29Ah: buying fracking gas via LNG vs conventional pipeline gas is even less ecological. Nothing to do with socialism, just power politics.
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06:33 < L29Ah> https://mastodon.ml/system/media_attachments/files/109/990/873/065/380/127/original/4feaf2b523d7ec57.png PROVEN: chatgpt is more intelligent than americans
07:28 < hprmbridge> nmz787> Asking unit conversions as simple as this seems to prove more about the person asking than anyone else
07:39 < darsie> What is one quart air? https://paste.debian.net/1274903/
07:49 < muurkha> eleitl: I agree that PV kills everything else, including geothermal, but not for the reason you describe; just because it's cheaper.  The millimeter-wave gyrotron thing kanzure mentioned might actually help with the Carnot efficiency problem by enabling drilling into hotter rocks, but even the 150° of rocks we can easily drill into gives a Carnot efficiency of 30%, which I don't think is very low.
07:52 < hprmbridge> Perry> Cheaper is what always dominates.
07:52 < hprmbridge> Perry> I think nuclear is really the way to go for base load but I think it's politically difficult.
07:52 < muurkha> Well, not always in war, but yes.
07:53 < hprmbridge> Perry> Side note: Starship makes orbital PV practical but Musk is extremely skeptical of the idea.
07:53 < hprmbridge> Perry> But orbital PV is the best way to deal with base load in very high latitudes.
07:53 < hprmbridge> Perry> (Assuming no nuclear.)
07:54 < muurkha> Murphy actually has a subchapter about geothermal considering EGS in which he, to my reading, admits he's strawmanning it: he talks about drilling 1 km deep and getting 25° of ΔT, but points out that if you can drill 10 km deep you can get 250° of ΔT and mine out a great deal more heat.
07:54 < muurkha> So he's underestimating the extractable energy by 100×, even without considering hotspots like Iceland.
07:55 < muurkha> Yeah, nuclear is clearly better than PV for baseload in Antarctica or the bottom of the sea.
07:56 < hprmbridge> eleitl> muurkha: Of course PV is cheaper, especially over lifetime. We know PV panels can last for 50 years, though not sure how current dual glass Trinas will fare -- I'll let you know 😉
07:57 < muurkha> Right!
07:57 < muurkha> orbital PV is a potentially interesting alternative, but the point at which space PV becomes appealing is somewhere around Kardashev Type 1
07:57 < hprmbridge> eleitl> As to deep geothermal, my place is in Unterhaching which is over 3 km deep -- and that's considered a suitable location.
07:57 < hprmbridge> Perry> Why? If it's cheap enough people will use it.
07:58 < hprmbridge> eleitl> The current unregulated 800 Wp plants in Germany ROI over some 1.5-2 years at current electricity prices. Guess what, people are building them like crazy.
07:58 < muurkha> Perry: that's true, but I don't think it will be cheap enough.  Maybe Starship really will change that.
07:59 < muurkha> eleitl: and that's even with your very low capacity factor (you cited a number which comes out to 11%)
07:59 < hprmbridge> Perry> Starship means you can get 150T to LEO for about $10M.
07:59 < hprmbridge> Perry> Possibly $5M
08:00 < hprmbridge> Perry> You can get 150T to GEO for surprisingly not much more than that given the overall system design.
08:00 < superkuh> Orbital power transmission over many hundreds of km is stupid. The gain of any aperture is directly proportional to it's span. To get feasible spreading losses for feasible wavelengths you need a coherent aperture of ~5km across.
08:00 < hprmbridge> Perry> This is a revolution.
08:00 < hprmbridge> eleitl> This is the geological formation https://www.geothermie.de/bibliothek/lexikon-der-geothermie/m/molassebecken-bayrisches.html -- there are not many like that in Germany.
08:00 < hprmbridge> Perry> Why is that a problem.
08:01 < kanzure> i would like to have a 5 kilometer wide aperture, that would be nice to have
08:01 < hprmbridge> Perry> multi-km orbital stations are part of what people are proposing.
08:01 < hprmbridge> Perry> Where on your body would you want it?
08:01 < superkuh> Yes. We can return to the idea once there are multi-km size structures in space.
08:01 < superkuh> Until then it's a waste of time.
08:01 < hprmbridge> Perry> Which is what Starship lets us start doing.
08:01 < hprmbridge> eleitl> This channel specializes in wastes of time.
08:01 < muurkha> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_geothermal_system#EGS_potential_in_the_United_States talks mostly about EGS at 3–10 km depth, so I think Murphy's 1 km counts as an intentional strawman, which is a bit of a red flag about the rest of his book.
08:02 < kanzure> this is my favorite way to do large-scale thousand kilometer wide objects in space:
08:02 < kanzure> https://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/space/Self-deployed%20space%20or%20planetary%20habitats%20and%20extremely%20large%20structures%20-%202007.pdf
08:02 < kanzure> slides https://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/space/Self-deployed%20extremely%20large%20low%20mass%20space%20structures%20-%202007.pdf
08:02 < hprmbridge> Perry> bbl
08:02 < superkuh> It'd be so much cheaper to just put the PV panels on the ground.
08:02 < superkuh> And so much easier to maintain.
08:02 < muurkha> Perry: yeah, GEO will be more interesting than LEO around Kardashev Type 1
08:03 < hprmbridge> eleitl> Nevermind figuring out how much MWh/kg you need to lift it, and what the exhaust does to your atmosphere (hint: it's not good).
08:03 < hprmbridge> Perry> It's only cheaper to have the PV panels on the ground if they're getting enough sunlight often enough.
08:03 < hprmbridge> Perry> Space gives you 100% duty cycle and reliability.
08:03 < muurkha> superkuh: you might be able to drop solid synfuel from space
08:03 < muurkha> aluminum, for example
08:03 < hprmbridge> Perry> You can save a ton of money building storage infra if you have good baseload ability, and you're not going to get reliable PV in scotland in winter.
08:04 < hprmbridge> eleitl> I paid less than 800 EUR for my 800 Wp plant. These 800 EUR don't buy me much in terms of orbital assets, at the moment.
08:05 < hprmbridge> Perry> At the moment.
08:05 < hprmbridge> Perry> Starship changes a lot of the calculus.
08:05 < muurkha> well, if we take Perry's 150T-to-LEO-for-(US?)$10M number...
08:05 < superkuh> I don't see the irregularity of solar power on the ground causing problems currently. Yes, energy storage is hard. But it's immeasurably easier than building km scale coherent apertures in space and keeping them operating.
08:05 < hprmbridge> Perry> And it will have its maiden launch within months.
08:05 < hprmbridge> Perry> It will go lower too with time.
08:05 < hprmbridge> eleitl> I wish StarShip really well, and hope they suceed. Whether the real economics to LEO would be merely stellar, or out of this world.
08:05 < hprmbridge> Perry> I suppose we'll see.
08:05 < muurkha> €800 would put 12 kg in LEO
08:06 < hprmbridge> Perry> Which is enough for a bunch of square meters of ultralight panels.
08:06 < hprmbridge> Perry> And they get 1400W/m^2
08:06 < superkuh> Because it's not going to be a parabolic reflector, it'd be an transmitting array. If you think the radio astronomers are mad about vLEO constellations wait till they see the proposed sideband levels of a space based solar power transmitter.
08:06 < hprmbridge> eleitl> 12 kg is a lot in terms of InP on mylar, but needs phased-array radiators and a big rectenna array groundside.
08:07 < muurkha> even with regular silicon photocells 12 kg is about 60 m²?
08:07 < hprmbridge> Perry> They won't care at the point where every grad student has a space telescope.
08:07 < hprmbridge> Perry> Which isn't far off.
08:07 < hprmbridge> eleitl> I'd rather look into 100 kWh Na-ion in a decade, or so.
08:07 < hprmbridge> Perry> they're thinking old world.
08:07 < hprmbridge> Perry> They think "a space telescope costs $5B" and not "a space telescope costs $500k"
08:07 < hprmbridge> Perry> Which is going to be the case just because of Starship.
08:08 < muurkha> superkuh: radio astronomers are not a major political lobby
08:08 < hprmbridge> Perry> The radio astronomers will be much happier being in deep space away from terrestrial contamination
08:08 < superkuh> Or anyone else the chosen band steps on.
08:08 < hprmbridge> Perry> bbl
08:08 < muurkha> yeah, military communications folks *are*
08:09 < superkuh> But yeah, that's a minor issue compared to the fact that the expense compared to a similar ground PV+storage is disproportional.
08:10 < muurkha> eleitl: if we stipulate this 15 grams per dollar number, we're talking about getting ≈100kW for €800 instead of 1kW.  two orders of magnitude could cover for a lot of sins
08:11 < muurkha> well, that's not taking into account the inefficiency of the panels, so more like 20kWe
08:11 < hprmbridge> eleitl> What is the launch energetics of Starship per kg? It's methane/LOX, right?
08:11 < muurkha> I don't actually know
08:13 < muurkha> and yeah if you can use some kind of thin-film orbital panel you can probably go up another order of magnitude or more from there.  But existing orbital solar panels don't use thin-film cells, so I assume there are some problems to resolve there.
08:17 < hprmbridge> eleitl> Looks interesting: https://www.nvidia.com/gtc/keynote/
08:19 < muurkha> .t
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09:59 < muurkha> eleitl: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship says methane/LOX is right
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10:36 < hprmbridge> eleitl> Seems we need the energy of combustion enthalpy of their methane start weight divided by payload to get a rough estimate. Ignoring everything else necessary for launch, which can be a lot (just energy of liquification for LOX/methane is considerable already).
10:36 < hprmbridge> eleitl> So I would double the number to be on the safe side.
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12:57 < fenn> (CIGS) thin film actually works better in space long term because it "heals" from radiation induced damage
12:59 < kanzure> freitas cryonics book was published (seems to be different from his nanomedicine book?) https://www.amazon.com/Cryostasis-Revival-Recovery-Cryonics-Nanomedicine/dp/099681535X
13:03 < fenn> starship including both stages has 4600t of propellant, of which 22% is methane, times 50.5MJ/kg => 51TJ worth of methane per launch, plus negligible amounts for cryo cooling etc
13:04 < fenn> (14MWh)
13:04 < fenn> er.. 14GWh
13:06 < L29Ah> so a few households' lifetime worth of utilized energy
13:08 < fenn> Vanguard Space THINS 400-500 W/kg (2014; thin film)
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13:11 < fenn> let's say some fraction of the launch is trusses and power transmitting hardware, so you get 50MW of PV into LEO. now you also probably want to get it into GEO. this can be done with ion engines but will take longer and waste time
13:11 < kanzure> "Lipofuscin as the main driving force of current age-related disease:  justification and strategies for removal" https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202208.0229/v6
13:16 < fenn> i'd be surprised if power transmission from GEO was able to get more than 50% efficiency, so effectively you have 25MW on the ground, per launch. since a natural gas power plant is 60% efficient, the energy payback time is 14 days, compared to if you just burned the methane for electricity on the ground
13:16 < fenn> 51TJ*.6/25MW
13:17 < fenn> that's a much better EROI than i expected tbh
13:18 < kanzure> yandex source code leak https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34525936 https://arseniyshestakov.com/2023/01/26/yandex-services-source-code-leak/ and now they are open-sourcing some stuff https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35261043
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13:21 < muurkha> fenn: that's interesting, I hadn't heard that
13:22 < muurkha> about CGIS
13:22 < muurkha> CIGS
13:22 < fenn> there hasn't been much actual deployment of CIGS in space unfortunately
13:23 < muurkha> or anywhere else
13:23 < fenn> this was demonstrated by JAXA in 2009
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13:23 < muurkha> yeah, I think you could buy CIGS commercially for a while
13:24 < muurkha> but then silicon got cheaper than CIGS, so all we really got out of it was enabling the witch-burners to claim that solar cells are full of cadmium
13:25 < muurkha> I might be wrong, maybe it was some other thin-film PV tech that was being listed on Solarserver
13:25 < fenn> witches are renewable
13:25 < muurkha> we are
13:27 < muurkha> so I was thinking that the main attraction of orbital power was that you wouldn't be limited by the surface of Earth
13:28 < muurkha> which means GEO rather than LEO
13:28 < muurkha> but if these calculations are in the ballpark, maybe with Starship you can actually get power to be 20× cheaper per watt by gathering it on orbit instead of on the ground where you need to deal with pesky things like atmosphere, rain, hail, night, and clouds
13:29 < fenn> well you could also get it to be cheaper by gathering it in the sahara desert
13:30 < muurkha> in the sahara you still need glass covering the silicon to protect it from wind and sand
13:30 < fenn> another neglected idea is simply reflecting light with orbiting mirrors to power generating sites at high latitudes
13:30 < muurkha> the silicon is 100μm thick nowadays but the glass is 4000μm thick which makes it more expensive
13:31 < fenn> mirrors wouldn't need to be in GEO, and could serve multiple sites around the world when your primary site is occulted by the earth
13:31 < muurkha> we could call it Project Antmagnifier
13:31 < fenn> there was some concern about bird deaths and circadian rhythm disruption
13:32 < fenn> also clouds would still be a problem
13:33 < muurkha> clouds wouldn't be a problem for very long in areas receiving 30 suns of irradiance, unless you started boiling a lake or something
13:34 < fenn> hm i suppose PV wouldn't need to be in GEO either, and you could maybe store energy as orbital kinetic energy with an electrodynamic tether, but i have no idea what the efficiency on that conversion looks like
13:34 < fenn> and the changing orbital parameters of a huge space facility would be a headache for everyone else
13:34 < muurkha> this kind of thing is also a concern with the standard rectenna approach: you can't do too much more irradiance than the sun even in RF, or your "inefficiency" starts to look like an industrial disaster
13:35 < muurkha> you could just publish the changing orbital parameters on a website like NORAD does
13:35 < fenn> that's what starlink does (spacetrack.org)
13:36 < fenn> space-track.org
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13:42 < fenn> ok there's a problem with my idea to use electrodynamic tethers as energy storage: you'd always be reducing energy over the same location on earth, but adding it everywhere else, which means your eccentricity will always be increasing
13:43 < fenn> you'd have to pair it with batteries at least
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13:44 < fenn> and then you might as well only use batteries
13:45 < fenn> if there were two power-downlink sites on opposite sides of the planet it would balance out
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14:41 < fenn> this research paper suggests 4kW/kg space based solar arrays are possible, based on 17kW/kg bare solar film, https://www.spacefuture.com/archive/early_commercial_demonstration_of_space_solar_power_using_ultra_lightweight_arrays.shtml
15:26 < fenn> maybe thrusting off-prograde could solve the eccentricity problem
17:04 < kanzure> peter voss has moved to austin
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17:43 < hprmbridge> CheekyMonkey> Interesting paper. The late Ray Peat and Matt Blackburn talk about how lipofuscin is a major cause of aging and Blackburn has a protocol to reduce it. The paper mentions how 7-ketocholesterol contributes to lipofuscin and my belief is that 7-KC is one of the most interesting areas of anti-aging to work since it's involved with so many different causes of aging and that once we solve the problems
17:43 < hprmbridge> CheekyMonkey> caused by 7-KC we will be a lot closer to solving aging.
18:09 < docl> well one thing to consider is putting a lot of thin mirrors up and focusing them on an area of land, converting it to electric on the ground. sunlight's angle is about 1% so 10kkm -> 100km wide spot. thermal management a challenge, but with that kind of power you don't need great efficiency for it to be economic
18:11 < docl> another thought I had is to use solar mirror heating to steer hurricaines around. if you use mirrors that reflect UVC and scatter everything else, you could selectively zap the top of the atmosphere and produce localized heat by ozone photolysis
18:11 < muurkha> this is also helpful if you are encountering political resistance; you can put the 100km wide spot over the capital of the resistors
18:11 < muurkha> that's why I said we should call it Project Antmagnifier
18:12 < muurkha> CheekyMonkey: what paper?  Not the one fenn linked
18:12 < docl> need some kind of crypto governance system
18:14 < docl> actually UVC targetting should make it less useful for frying the surface but more useful for steering tropical storms
18:15 < hprmbridge> lachlan> yeah UVC won’t get through the atmosphere
18:15 < fenn> cheekymonkey was referring to: "Lipofuscin as the main driving force of current age-related disease:  justification and strategies for removal" https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202208.0229/v6
18:16 < docl> so it's safer, but you are throwing away most of the light energy. OTOH if it lets you stabilize the position and parameters of tropical storms, you can gather energy via wind/wave turbines
18:18 < fenn> mumble mumble solar pumped laser
18:18 < fenn> of course then you are really getting into star wars territory
18:19 < muurkha> even just the orbital concentrating mirrors are already star wars territory
18:19 < muurkha> for future reference, carbonating milk was a bad idea
18:25 < muurkha> the sun is 6.794 × 10⁻⁵ steradians but a 1%-dense orbital mirror array would be 6.28 × 10⁻² steradians, right?
18:26 < muurkha> so you could focus 1100 suns, 1.1 MW/m², on the ants
18:28 < docl> well filling 1% of the sky would take a lot of mirrors. I was thinking just doing equivalent area for +1kW/m^2.
18:28 < muurkha> that's 1800° I think?  hot enough to melt steel and quartz, though not alumina
18:29 < muurkha> that's what I mean about star wars territory
18:29 < muurkha> check my math?
18:32 < muurkha> fenn: your nostalgia about the lost age of technology will appreciate https://patrickcollison.com/fast and https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/when-did-new-york-start-building if you haven't seen them already
18:33 < muurkha> are you writing that up somewhere btw?
18:34 < docl> I haven't written it up anywhere apart from old twitter threads
18:35 < muurkha> I meant fenn!  but I'd also be interested in the UVC hurricane control writeup
18:37 < docl> lol wasn't sure
18:39 < fenn> i wasn't aware i had a nostalgia about the lost age of technology
18:40 < muurkha> we've talked about it often, how nothing has been built since 01972
18:41 < muurkha> I mean approximately
18:41 < fenn> this was a good counterpoint to my theory that the technological singularity happened in 1969: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
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18:41 < fenn> basically it says that exponential growth continued until then, but stopped
18:42 < fenn> maybe all the dark budget resources going to the secret war against the goa'uld
18:42 < muurkha> he's mostly talking about financial stuff
18:44 < muurkha> the most obvious financial things that happened around 01971 were the temporary suspension of the gold convertibility of the dollar beginning on 01971-08-15 and the 01973 oil crisis
18:45 < muurkha> maybe I should say "the end of Bretton Woods"
18:49 < fenn> "peer review" did it, heh
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19:03 < muurkha> but there were a lot of things going on in the US: the end of the Vietnam War, LSD, Timothy Leary's jailbreak, MKULTRA, the Weather Underground, OPEC, the Manson and My Lai convictions, the end of Apollo, the founding of NASDAQ and FedEx and Greenpeace, Earth Day, COINTELPRO was revealed by the Citizens' Commission, the defunding of the Boeing 2707, the nationalization of US passenger rail service 
19:03 < muurkha> (which had mostly died), Nixon declared the War on Drugs, the Supreme Court allowed the publication of the Pentagon Papers, Project Gutenberg was founded, Nixon visited China and dropped the trade embargo (and shortly afterwards PRC replaced Taiwan in the UN), the UK canceled their Black Arrow space program, Intel shipped the 4004
19:03 < muurkha> and you could make an argument for how most of these things were connected to the change of economic regime
19:04 < muurkha> but I think switching to a fiat currency is the most likely relevant one
19:07 < fenn> "the data was collected with the a priori assumption that abandoning the Bretton Woods agreement lent an unprecedented and unaccountable agency to nation states (particularly the United States thanks to the US dollar’s position as a global reserve currency) in their ability to expand money and credit."
19:07 < docl> muurkha: if you compare to the sun you're implicitly assuming a distance where the entire earth gets hit from each satelite. a closer swarm reflects less energy per unit of sky angle used because it's confined to hitting less of the planet ("only" 100km wide in my proposal's case). diameter of earth is 12000km, so the distance to pump energy at the max rate would be from 1.2Mkm, as any further means 
19:08 < docl> the spot size exceeds planet size. at that point you basically simulate 1% of the surface of the sun in temperature
19:14 < muurkha> not the entire earth, no, just one point on the earth
19:15 < muurkha> and not each satellite, just the ones that are visible
19:15 < muurkha> if they're in LEO that could be a tiny fraction of the total
19:16 < muurkha> and I don't think "1% of the surface of the sun" is correct
19:17 < muurkha> it's 1% of the irradiance of having the entire sky filled with mirrors reflecting the sun surface, but 1% of the irradiance doesn't mean 1% of the temperature
19:18 < muurkha> my reasoning is that the spot on the Earth will heat up until it is emitting just as much power by glowing incandescently as it is absorbing from the sunlight; until then it will be in disequilibrium and heat up further
19:18 < docl> hmm. I think 1% of the sky may follow from the other numbers I'm using, but I'm not sure. mainly I'm thinking if you reflect from n meters away you get a spot size 0.01n wide
19:18 < muurkha> so you can use the Stefan–Boltzmann law to figure out how hot it needs to be to radiate away that much power
19:20 < muurkha> are you talking about beam divergence?  I guess that is a significant factor I wasn't thinking about, unless the orbiting mirrors all have a large apparent size than the sun or moon
19:21 < docl> yeah, it's kind of the main thing I'm thinking about. to get an equivalent heating to the noon sun, you need about equal area in orbit as you do on the ground, and that area is very specific to distance because of the angle of the beam divergence
19:22 < docl> so 2km wide would work from 200km distance. problem then is that you can't get continuous power as the satellites only spend so much time overhead and are partly shaded
19:23 < muurkha> originally I was thinking of a lot of satellites with a very small apparent area, like a sky full of morning stars
19:24 < muurkha> it's a confusing coincidence that the sun is about 0.01 radians of divergence and I was talking about filling 0.01 of the sky with mirrors
19:25 < muurkha> but yeah if the satellites had small apparent area, the reflection would be very diffuse on the ground
19:26 < muurkha> like, a 10-cm-across satellite at 200km LEO altitude would project a 2-km-across image of the sun on the ground
19:26 < muurkha> becasuase the divergence of the 0.0093 radian sunlight over that 200 km is 1.86 km ≈ 2 km
19:27 < fenn> with small mirrors you also get to worry about diffraction
19:37 < muurkha> yeah, but they have to get pretty small before the diffraction gets close to being as bad as the divergence of raw sunlight
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20:17 < fenn> relativity space's terran-1 rocket, the first methane fueled orbital rocket to launch. livestream, t-8 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzA0lIwh19c
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21:17 < fenn> oh and for the record i think a high temp superconducting tokamak such as MIT's ARC fusion reactor will become commercially viable in the next decade, putting most of these schemes to rest
21:22 < fenn> uh oh, commonwealth fusion can't get more high temp superconductor tape due to sanctions on russia
21:33 < hprmbridge> cpopell> I actually think the thing that happened in the 1970s is energy per capita started going down
21:33 < fenn> it leveled off
21:34 < fenn> https://wtfhappenedin1971home.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/energy-per-capita.png
21:35 < hprmbridge> cpopell> Everyone calculates these differently; I'd need to figure out which is a better metric
21:35 < hprmbridge> cpopell> but here's another
21:35 < hprmbridge> cpopell> https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=US
21:36 < hprmbridge> cpopell>  https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1064664282450628710/1088320219275079730/image.png
21:36 < fenn> looks more like energy went down in 2008
21:36 < hprmbridge> cpopell> Wonder what the difference between energy per capita and energy use kg of oil per capita is
21:37 < fenn> my graph was for the G7 countries, yours was for US only
21:37 < hprmbridge> cpopell> yah but there's a similar one for the US
21:38 < hprmbridge> cpopell> https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC?locations=US here's electric power consumption - I guess if electric power consumption stayed up, but energy use went down, that was all in industrial energy? hmmm
21:38 < fenn> cars burn a lot of oil
21:39 < hprmbridge> cpopell> well, that's the thing - oil usage equivalent per capita went down, while electric stayed up
21:39 < hprmbridge> cpopell> Anyway, \o/, we finally submitted to the app store(s) tonight
21:39 < fenn> what's your app?
21:40 < hprmbridge> cpopell> we're an SEC registered RIA crypto-roboadvisor, and basically one of/the first (hard to keep track of everyone) tool to stay automatically rebalanced in assets. actual assets, separately managed accounts, not omnibus
21:41 < hprmbridge> cpopell> launching backed by gemini, but we have full self custody on our roadmap
21:42 < fenn> good time to launch heh
21:42 < hprmbridge> cpopell> decent time to launch, horrid time to raise
21:44 < hprmbridge> cpopell> but it's my belief people should be able to get diversified exposure to digital assets the same way they can to emerging markets
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23:30 < hprmbridge> cpopell> anyone know more about Kraken losing Plaid ACH?
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23:51 < jrayhawk> is bob still in here
23:57 < jrayhawk> oh, looks like we lost him in the libera transition
--- Log closed Thu Mar 23 00:00:18 2023