--- Log opened Fri May 05 00:00:52 2023
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05:03 < hprmbridge> kanzure> guardians v3 plays the "the only allowed genetic engineering is for purposes of evil, and also trying to make things better is evil" trope.
05:04 < hprmbridge> kanzure> society has really overplayed "genetics bad".
05:18 < kanzure> "Founders Fund, the venture-capital firm he started in 2005, made one of its earliest investments in Halcyon Molecular, which aimed to defeat aging"  didn't know it was one of their earliest investments.
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13:17 < hprmbridge> nmz787> Verilog and systemverilog around these parts
13:30 < hprmbridge> nmz787> @gourneau what was the vectorization flow you did on the chat log lines before feeding them as context to the llm?
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14:38 < kanzure> apparently trezor bip32 is not bip32? https://github.com/trezor/trezor-firmware/issues/1749 (hi saurik!)
14:47 < fenn> let's play a game. please do not answer if you have read about the problem already. Q. Consider two coins and a bell that rings whenever any of them comes up HEAD. What is the correlation between the two coins, given that the bell rang?
14:50 < kanzure> so the scenario is that the bell has buzzed?
14:52 < fenn> yes
15:01 < Betawolf> I don't understand the question. What are you correlating? All you know is that one of the coins has come up heads.
15:02 < Betawolf> (assuming it's not one of those 'aha but the bell can ring for other reasons as well' questions)
15:02 < kanzure> well it's "when any of them" not "when one of them"
15:03 < Betawolf> I wasn't implying 'only one'. One or both of the coins has come up heads.
15:03 < fenn> the bell rings if both coins come up heads
15:04 < Betawolf> But what are we meant to correlate?
15:06 < fenn> describe how much often one coin comes up heads, given that the other coin came up heads and the bell rang
15:06 < fenn> how often*
15:10 < Betawolf> there's no relationship. If the other coin came up heads, the bell would ring no matter what this coin produced. The coins could be anything from perfectly correlated to perfectly anticorrelated and the same situation would be observed. 
15:15 < Betawolf> I feel like I must be missing the point.
15:24 < jrayhawk> 2/3 chance of anticorrelation, 1/3 chance of correlation.
15:25 < jrayhawk> this presupposes certain structures of causality, however
15:27 < fenn> jrayhawk please elaborate how you arrived at that answer
15:29 < jrayhawk> overall chances are 2/4 and 2/4; a bell being rung eliminates only the tails/tails case.
15:30 < jrayhawk> this assumes the coins are considered by the bell-ringer in parallel
15:30 < jrayhawk> if they are considered in sequence, then it is no correlation
15:32 < Betawolf> hmm, I see. 3 outcomes cause the bell-ringing premise, 2 of those are consistent with anticorrelated outcomes, 1 with correlated outcomes.
15:34 < jrayhawk> i assume this problem is deliberately underspecified to suss out how people think about operational sequencing
15:36 < fenn> the problem derives from this tweet with no context and getting it wrong and not understanding what the hell is going on https://twitter.com/yudapearl/status/1654396859925041153
15:42 < Betawolf> I find Pearl's answer strange, because it assumes the thing that I thought the question was asking us to determine.
15:44 < jrayhawk> lol
15:45 < fenn> pearl is snarking at how dumb GPT-4 is, his audience is other statistics professors
15:47 < Betawolf> Like, "On this evidence, are these coins independent? Well, we assume they are independent, so yes."
15:52 < jrayhawk> probably better that they be locked up in ivory towers and never let anywhere near anyone's money
16:07 < hprmbridge> nmz787> https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669519
16:08 < hprmbridge> nmz787> Material and patterning innovation: the foundation for Moore’s law extension
16:08 < jrayhawk> "This DOI cannot be found in the DOI System."
16:09 < jrayhawk> did the bridge eat some part of the URL? https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669519
16:09 < fenn> Q. imagine an OR gate which is incapable of taking the input 00. is this OR gate biased?
16:14 < muurkha> just to be perfectly meticulous about the truth, Pearl is a professor in UCLA's computer science department; https://samueli.ucla.edu/judea-pearl/ describes him as "PROFESSOR OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND DIRECTOR OF THE COGNITIVE SYSTEMS LAB"
16:15 < muurkha> UCLA also has a department of statistics, and he is not part of it
16:16 < muurkha> but it is certainly true that he has published research on statistics
16:17 < muurkha> and for example https://www.cs.york.ac.uk/equality-and-diversity/heroes-of-computer-science/professorjudeapearl/ describes him as "Chancellor's professor of computer science and statistics"
16:17 < fenn> when i read the question, i thought he was a physics professor and this was some sort of metaphor for quantum entanglement or a trick question relating to it
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16:19 < muurkha> no, he's the guy who revolutionized how people think about Bayesian statistics and causality
16:19 < muurkha> stumping GPT-4 with the Monty Hall problem is 100% on-brand for him
16:21 < hprmbridge> nmz787> the way people mark tweets as part of a series, made me think GPT4 responded correctly (the trailing 1/3 on the first tweet)
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16:22 < hprmbridge> nmz787> hmm, maybe the DOI is written wrong https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/conference-proceedings-of-spie/PC12497/PC1249704/Material-and-patterning-innovation--the-foundation-for-Moores-law/10.1117/12.2669519.full
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--- Log closed Sat May 06 00:00:53 2023