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00:55 -!- Topic for #hplusroadmap: biohacking, nootropics, transhumanism, open hardware | this channel is LOGGED: http://gnusha.org/logs | https://diyhpl.us/wiki | not quite sponsored by george church | banned by the MIT media lab and the FDA
00:55 -!- Topic set by fenn [~fenn@user/fenn] [Fri Mar 25 06:29:19 2022]
00:55 [Users #hplusroadmap]
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00:55 -!- Channel #hplusroadmap created Wed May 19 06:51:36 2021
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06:26 < L29Ah> https://img2.joyreactor.cc/pics/comment/countryballs-Комиксы-1021994.jpeg
06:52 < kanzure> single biological neurons are computationally complex https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.16922
06:59 < kanzure> "Single cortical neurons as deep artificial neural networks" https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/613141v2
07:09 < kanzure> probably cheaper than the rothberg ultrasound handheld https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?tab=all&searchText=portable+handheld+ultrasound+pocket
12:20 < muurkha> interesting thing about the dughof interview in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kAmgdEjq2eYQkB5PP/douglas-hofstadter-changes-his-mind-on-deep-learning-and-ai
12:20 < muurkha> > The interviewer then asked him how important these developments are. "Are they as important as the Industrial Revolution? Is there something analogous in history that terrified people?" Hinton thought for a second and he said, "Well, maybe as important as the wheel."
12:20 < muurkha> so an interesting thing about the wheel
12:21 < muurkha> in Western Africa (Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc.) during the early modern period, they didn't use the wheel
12:23 < kanzure> https://astera.org/molecular-systems/
12:23 < muurkha> but obviously they'd been in transitive cultural contact with wheel-using cultures for 6000 years
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13:37 < kanzure> .wik sahara sea
13:37 < EmmyNoether> HTTPError: HTTP Error 404: Not Found (wik:100)
13:38 < kanzure> .wik Sahara Sea
13:38 < EmmyNoether> "The Sahara Sea was the name of a hypothetical macro-engineering project which proposed flooding endorheic basins in the Sahara Desert with waters from the Atlantic Ocean or Mediterranean Sea." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_Sea
15:21 < darsie> Make Sahara salty again?
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21:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> So, I've been thinking about the humans as heat engines thing again. I think the issue I have is that it's probably a matter of definition. Humans are heat engines if we use a lose definition. We operate at a specific temperature and expend enormous energy to stay at that temperature. 10 times more than if we were cold blooded. This heat allows certain reactions to take place that could normally
21:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> never take place. These reactions allow us to move. You could say that Work is traditionally only defined as taking place at Force * Distance. However, without converting oxygen and carbon to maintain a specific temp, there would be no movement over distance and no Work could take place. By deduction, humans are heat engines QED
21:41 < hprmbridge> Eli> Chemical PE turns into KE. Maybe the steps are more convoluted in a human than in an ICE. But, they follow the same principle.
21:42 < hprmbridge> Eli> And if anyone disagrees, I challenge you to a UFC Musk-Zuck-style cagematch, which is how all scientific debates should be settled.
21:58 < muurkha> haha
22:00 < hprmbridge> Eli> I haven't read this report personally, but I was thinking, can't the government just mandate lighter colored roof shingles for new houses? It would cost nothing and it would reflect a lot of heat energy away from the earth. The "technology" is not advanced and has existed for years.
22:00 < muurkha> well I guess if you redefine standard terms to meanings you just made up, you can demonstrate the truth of any assertion.  That's glory for you!
22:01 < hprmbridge> Eli> we redefine standard terms all the time. And it's not necesarily bad science.
22:02 < muurkha> Eli: maybe do a Fermi estimate of total terrestrial insolation, annual construction activity, and existing roof albedo
22:02 < hprmbridge> Eli> maybe redefine is the wrong word. let me redefine that ...
22:02 < muurkha> sometimes, as in this case, it isn't science at all :)
22:03 < hprmbridge> Eli> for example, I can't find a definition for entropy that every physicist agrees on
22:04 < muurkha> did you read the Jaynes paper linked in the previous discussion?
22:04 < fenn> i know entropy when i see it (haha only serious)
22:05 < muurkha> it has a great section about that
22:08 < hprmbridge> Eli> Seems to be a bit over the place. Some estimates saying it could reduce global temp by up to 2-3 degrees C, but that is for a super reflective roof, i think. There are some synthetic tiles that look good that have a reflectivity value of ~30% that look decent. https://e360.yale.edu/features/urban-heat-can-white-roofs-help-cool-the-worlds-warming-
22:08 < hprmbridge> Eli> cities#:~:text=The%20systematic%20replacement%20of%20dark,2%20degrees%20Celsius%20or%20more.
22:10 < muurkha> no, nobody has provided such a high estimate
22:10 < hprmbridge> Eli> I have not. My personal definition of entropy is that it is that "nature trends towards the most probably state". But, you would get 30 diffferent definitions if you read 30 different text books.
22:10 < muurkha> that page says it could "lower heat wave maximum temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius or more" inside of cities
22:10 < muurkha> not lower the global temp
22:11 < muurkha> Eli: I recommend reading the Jaynes paper, but maybe first read Wikipedia.  lots of textbooks are full of errors nobody can correct
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22:12 < hprmbridge> Eli> ```the creation of lighter land surfaces “could help to lower extreme temperatures… by up to 2 or 3 degrees Celsius” in much of Europe, North America, and Asia, says Sonia Seneviratne, who studies land-climate dynamics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, and is co-author of the new study.``` – in the link cited
22:13 < muurkha> yes, but she's talking about specifically inside of cities, and specifically about extreme temperatures, not average temperatures
22:15 < hprmbridge> Eli> in any case, it's sort of a free lunch
22:17 < muurkha> it's not, no
22:18 < muurkha> the effect is about four orders of magnitude smaller than you claimed
22:18 < hprmbridge> Eli> like i said, it's a free lunch. free is independent of size
22:19 < muurkha> if a lunch is, say, a 300-gram sandwich, four orders of magnitude smaller would be 30 milligrams.  a free breadcrumb.
22:19 < muurkha> and it's far from free
22:19 < muurkha> you're talking about setting up a government bureaucracy staffed with people whose job it is to regulate the colors of shingles
22:19 < muurkha> paid for from tax money
22:20 < muurkha> and working by denying building permits until the proper color of shingles is being used
22:20 < muurkha> do you know what happens when you deny building permits?  homelessness.
22:21 < muurkha> the US is kind of the poster child for this: due to a historically unprecedented level of red tape around building, it has levels of homelessness whose only historical precedent is natural disasters and war refugees
22:22 < hprmbridge> Eli> Easy solution: excise tax on shingles based on reflectivity. We already have a bureaucracy that currently measures shingle reflectivity.
22:23 < hprmbridge> Eli> So easy. And reducing extreme heat in cities is absolutely not a bad idea.
22:23 < muurkha> and it's not a well-thought-out regulation, either; it imposes extra burdens on, for example, passively cooling water by pumping it up onto the roof during the night, which an architect friend of mine used in a LEED 5 certified building he designed
22:24 < muurkha> and if you want to get passive solar gain in winter by putting up passive solar collectors on your roof instead of shingles?  Building permit denied.
22:24 < muurkha> Also if you put Tesla's solar shingles on your roof.  They won't be reflective enough.
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22:25 < muurkha> Probably regular rooftop solar panels would also be forbidden, as would the traditional low-cost gravel roofs used on flat roofs in, for example, New Mexico.
22:25 < hprmbridge> Eli> solar panels already get major subsidies which costs the tax payers money. and they suck. have you ever done the math on those?
22:25 < muurkha> Because even if the gravel has high albedo, it isn't legible to the bureaucrats.
22:26 < muurkha> yes, I've done the math on those quite extensively, and whether they get subsidized or taxed depends on locality and time period.
22:27 < muurkha> Right now their ROI is very high without subsidies except in very polar areas like Germany or England.
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22:27 < muurkha> And all of this forever in exchange for, optimistically, delaying global warming by 0.002 degrees, which is roughly three weeks at the expected rate of climate change.
22:28 < hprmbridge> Eli> ok, I'm not sure how you're calculating that, but when I do the math, the Net Present Value of solar panels is terrible compared to investing the same amount on money in an index fund.
22:29 < hprmbridge> Eli> unless you install it yourself? otherwise, terrible investment for society
22:29 < muurkha> you're probably pricing your solar panels at overinflated retail prices of a dollar a watt
22:30 < muurkha> and assuming the house keeps running on 120VAC instead of 12VDC, and can't load-shift from night to day, so you figure in oversized inverters and battery banks.
22:30 < fenn> if you're comparing solar panels to index funds you're doing an entirely different calculation
22:30 < muurkha> or maybe you're just doing the calculation for Glasgow or something, where they really aren't worth it.
22:31 < hprmbridge> Eli> its not the panels that are expensive. Its the labor to install the panels. And then if you want to redo your roof at some point, you have to rehire labor to uninstall and then reinstall the panels, which results in an even worse investment.
22:31 < muurkha> fenn: I think it's quite reasonable to calculate NPV of index fund investing and solar panels in order to figure out which would be a better investment
22:32 < fenn> but it has nothing to do with global warming
22:33 < muurkha> well, in this case we were discussing a stupid proposal to forbid dark-colored roofing in order to reduce global warming by reflecting sunlight into space, which would plausibly prohibit rooftop solar
22:33 < fenn> yes i read
22:33 < muurkha> Eli was saying that rooftop solar was a thing people shouldn't want anyway
22:34 < fenn> a variation on the stupid proposal to reduce sunlight and pretend that ocean acidification isn't a thing
22:34 < muurkha> yes, but a particularly stupid variant of it because the effect would be so insignificant
22:34 < hprmbridge> Eli> not prohibit, place tax on less-reflective tiles.
22:34 < muurkha> well, that was the modified proposal
22:35 < fenn> yesterday i was looking at high resolution images of earth from space. the typical metropolitan area is sort of light grey
22:35 < fenn> anyway it's a tiny land area
22:35 < muurkha> yes
22:36 < hprmbridge> Eli> And why are you so confident in this calculation? Isn't the prred
22:36 < muurkha> Fermi estimation
22:37 < fenn> because i literally just looked at the picture showing the answer in concrete terms i can understand
22:37 < muurkha> "concrete" is a good term there
22:37 < hprmbridge> Eli> How do you do a fermi estimation when chaos theory math is involved?
22:38 < muurkha> it isn't
22:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> it appears to me that the global warming model is pretty complex and has a number of non-linear variables. How do we estimate temperature by 2100?
22:40 < fenn> here's a large picture of the earth from noon today. see if you can spot the cities: https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/FD/GEOCOLOR/20231751650_GOES16-ABI-FD-GEOCOLOR-10848x10848.jpg
22:43 < muurkha> you're talking about increasing the albedo of rooftops in urban areas from, say, 0.8 to 0.95, which the journalist who wrote the article you linked claimed would reduce the peaks of heat waves by 2°.  building roofs are maybe half of the 2% of the planet's surface that's urban, so we're talking about reflecting an extra 0.15% of incoming sunlight
22:44 < muurkha> effectively reducing the brightness of the sun to 99.85% of its current brightness, optimistically assuming that the new shingles also don't have lower nighttime infrared emissivity
22:45 < fenn> passively cooled roof paint is a good idea though. high albedo and high IR emissivity will even cool during the daytime, reducing electricity usage
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22:45 < muurkha> yes, and it doesn't need a government mandate to spur adoption
22:46 < muurkha> if you reduce the temperature of 2% of the planet by 2°, you've lowered the temperature of the planet by 0.04°, but that's during the peak of a heat wave; roughly those are about 1% of the time, so that's roughly 0.0004°
22:47 < muurkha> which is a few weeks on the global warming trend
22:47 < fenn> i don't know how to do the math, but it's a tiny hammer, and the thing about tiny hammers is knowing exactly where to hit
22:47 < muurkha> in conclusion, don't get your information from journalists
22:48 < fenn> solar panels can and should be made highly IR emissive for improved efficiency
22:49 < muurkha> they get paid for persuading you there's a new crisis or revolution every week and for their writing style, not for knowing things
22:49 < muurkha> people who know things aren't going to work as journalists, they're going to build stuff
22:49 < muurkha> they also aren't going to be on IRC
22:50 < hprmbridge> Eli> ya, idk, Im not really seeing the downside to seeing a 2 degree C reduction in temperature in urban areas for no cost.
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22:54 < hprmbridge> Eli> also, I'm very curious about your solar panel numbers. Is this self-installed on a roof? Are you comparing the investment NPV to an index fund?
22:57 < fenn> there are still people who know things on IRC. just not as many as there used to be
22:58 < fenn> i didn't see anything really wrong in the yale article that eli linked
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23:06 < fenn> clearly the world needs more giant silver airships lumbering through the skies over our cities
23:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> ```Modification of urban albedos reduces summertime urban temperatures, resulting in a better urban air quality and building air-conditioning savings. Furthermore, increasing urban albedos has the added benefit of reflecting some of the incoming global solar radiation and countering to some extent the effects of global warming. In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban
23:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). Using reflective materials, both roof and the pavement albedos can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60% (a U.S. potential
23:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills). On a global basis, our preliminary estimate is that increasing the world-wide albedos of urban roofs and paved surfaces will induce a negative radiative forcing on the earth equivalent to removing ~22 - 40 Gt of CO2 from the atmosphere. Since, 55% of the emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere, removal of 22 - 40 Gt of CO2
23:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> from the atmosphere is equivalent to reducing global CO2 emissions by 40 - 73 Gt. At ~$25/tonne of CO2, a 40 - 73 Gt CO2 emission reduction from changing the albedo of roofs and paved surfaces is worth about $1,000B to 1800B. These estimated savings are dependent on assumptions used in this study, but nevertheless demonstrate considerable benefits that may be obtained from cooler roofs and
23:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> pavements.``` – https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc933566/m2/1/high_res_d/962706.pdf
23:10 < hprmbridge> Eli> IDK about the claimed reduction in cooling buildings. From my understanding, that's mostly a function of how the roof is built. eg, how did you design your attic? That's based on talking to shingles people a few weeks ago. And it's also based on my a priori biases of how roofs are built and just thinking about it.
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23:21 < fenn> eli perhaps you should figure out why roofs are not white already
23:22 < hprmbridge> Eli> Apparently they are in some places. Texas is not a fan of them for style reasons lately. But they were more popular in Texas in the past, and still popular in Florida from what I was told
23:25 < fenn> somehow i don't see big government forcing people to do things for environmental reasons going over well in texas
23:26 < fenn> it would be more effective to show how it costs less
23:27 < fenn> anyway this is not #politics
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23:43 < fenn> global CO2 emissions is 50 Gt/yr so painting all the roofs white and all the streets grey would save about 1 year, which is not nothing
23:44 < fenn> on the other hand, this makes people feel like useful action is happening, when it's not really solving the problem
23:46 < fenn> this reminds me of telling people to turn off the water when brushing your teeth, because look at this big number
23:46 < fenn> lots of people doing a small thing has a small effect, even though the large numbers are unfamiliar to our everyday experience
23:47 < hprmbridge> Eli> Wouldn’t have to tax it much for every builder to switch over. Builders are notoriously cost averse. $50/roof might convince most of the industry to switch. And you still have the option to use dark shingles. So it’s voluntary.
23:48 < fenn> taxes are not voluntary
23:49 < hprmbridge> Eli> It’s voluntary to pay the pigouvian tax
23:49 < fenn> how about raising money to subsidize roof paint instead
23:49 < fenn> you could voluntarily pay builders to paint roofs white
23:51 < hprmbridge> Eli> I’m not opposed. Surely it would be more effective than the solar panel subsidies on roofs. Those things are basically an oligarch money laundering fund unless you self-install
23:51 < fenn> hilarious
23:51 < fenn> who do you think is enforcing the high cost of installs
23:53 < hprmbridge> Eli> It’s a property of the installation. Every roof install is custom. Custom engineering = expensive. They would have to rethink roofs to make it cost effective. Have some sort of standardized panel connector on every new build or something
23:54 < hprmbridge> Eli> If they could do that to allow a super painless install it could potentially work
23:55 < fenn> don't they just screw brackets onto the roof into the rafters?
23:55 < hprmbridge> Eli> It’s not that simple.
23:56 < hprmbridge> Eli> All roofs are different. You have to worry about leaks. Angles. Inconsistent home wiring. Etc …
23:57 < fenn> "Are you NABCEP PV Certified?"
23:58 < hprmbridge> Eli> I noticed when Elon came out with his carbon 0 plan I didn’t hear him mention anything about solar panels and he owns a panel company. He was talking about heat pumps. So I think even he knows it’s dumb.
23:58 < fenn> we actually have a solar installation business owner in the discord (not currently online)
23:59 < fenn> what specifically is dumb
23:59 < hprmbridge> Eli> But this is all my own opinion. I’m not certified in anything. Just did the math and couldn’t believe the results I got. It could potentially make sense on open land where you lay the panels down. That would be super easy. It also works if you don’t trust the Texas grid (reasonable)
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