--- Log opened Tue Jul 04 00:00:31 2023
--- Day changed Tue Jul 04 2023
00:00 < hprmbridge> Eli> Dumb, as in, poor investment for individuals to make a difference in the environment if the are in urban areas.
00:01 < fenn> because they can just buy solar power from a solar farm instead?
00:02 < fenn> tesla also sells solar roof tiles. maybe elon had a conflict of interest. (i have no idea what carbon plan 0 is)
00:03 < hprmbridge> Eli> The amount of money that goes towards installation and not energy production is absurd. Now, I don’t know what industry standard I’d as I have never built a nuke or coal plant or anything, so I don’t feel comfortable talking about that. But, yeah, solar panels laid on the ground in the desert or something might be a much better investment.
00:04 < fenn> i just can't believe that screwing brackets into a roof is actually expensive
00:04 < fenn> there's something else going on
00:04 < hprmbridge> Eli> Yeah I didn’t hear anything about solar panels or tiles in his talk, unless I missed it
00:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> Basically your federal subsidy for the panel is going to installers. You could have a positive roi, but not as great as with the equivalent investment in an index fund. And the fund had less risk! If your solar equipment company goes out of biz, which happens, sorry bro
00:06 < fenn> the panels are still on the roof
00:08 < fenn> even if you can't get part identical replacements, something equivalent will be available. presumably you're talking about inverters, grid tie, and load management equipment
00:08 < hprmbridge> Eli> Equipment breaks down. Apparently people have had major problems with this
00:08 < hprmbridge> Eli> So, I’m not sure it’s as easy as you would think it would be
00:09 < muurkha> fenn: rooftop work is expensive because it kills a lot of people
00:09 < muurkha> it's not just rooftop solar panels.  roofing is expensive too for the same reason
00:10 < fenn> full roof replacement is $10k for an average home
00:10 < muurkha> I doubt it, but maybe near you
00:10 < fenn> ripping all the shingles off and putting all the shingles on seems like a lot more work
00:10 < fenn> i just used the first search result
00:11 < fenn> i don't like leaving numbers floating when there's an easy estimate available
00:11 < fenn> average solar panel install is $20k
00:12 < muurkha> per watt?
00:12 < muurkha> oh, per house?
00:12 < muurkha> plausibly those are averages over different populations
00:12 < fenn> equipment is 45% and installation is 55%
00:13 < hprmbridge> Eli> I think part of the issue with solar companies going out of business is what happens to the warranty?
00:14 < muurkha> I'm pretty sure if my neighbors could make US$11k by installing solar panels they'd be doing it left and right.  i'm hoping to sign a lease on an two-bedroom apartment this week for US$160 per month 
00:14 < fenn> so going by these numbers, it costs more just to install the panels than it does to re-do an entire roof
00:14 < muurkha> install solar panels on one house and you'd get paid five years' rent
00:14 < muurkha> so I'm pretty sure that in an absolute sense this US$20k number is nonsense
00:15 < fenn> that was the total cost including panels
00:15 < muurkha> right, 55% of US$20k would be US$11k, which is five years' rent
00:16 < fenn> i suspect the installation costs are less in argentina
00:16 < muurkha> I suspect that the average installation costs overall are close to what they are in Argentina
00:17 < muurkha> so you'll get installation cost estimates that vary by orders of magnitude when you average over different areas
00:18 < hprmbridge> Eli> Also, I’m not sure anyone has figured out who is paying for the recycling issue: https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power
00:19 < hprmbridge> Eli> So, that’s why I say it is sort of an oligarch subsidy. Although many of these oligarchs go out of biz all the time
00:20 < fenn> the data i'm seeing doesn't vary by an order of magnitude
00:20 < fenn> 2x at most
00:21 < muurkha> there isn't a recycling issue, don't be stupid
00:21 < hprmbridge> Eli> There’s not?
00:23 < fenn> "According to a 2021 study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, solar panels themselves make up only 12% of the total cost of a solar panel installation; the other 88% comes from other equipment like inverters and wiring, as well as elemenets like labor, installer profit, and supply chain costs."
00:24 < muurkha> the article says IRENA's 78 million tonne number might need to be bumped by 50%?  that's 117 million tonnes.  that's a sphere 440 meters in diameter for the entire world's solar panel waste
00:24 < fenn> somehow i'm reminded of the space industry. the bottom fell out of the launch costs but everyone continued painstakingly shaving grams off the payloads
00:24 < hprmbridge> Eli> Some of these panels have lead and cadmium. So someone is gonna have to pay to recycle or clean that up.
00:25 < muurkha> nobody puts lead in their solar panels, and cadmium was only ever a trace element.  nobody is going to pay to recycle or clean it up.
00:25 < muurkha> it's just not an issue.
00:26 < muurkha> if we were to divide those 117 million tonnes by the current world population, it works out to 15 kg of used solar panels per person, almost entirely tempered glass.
00:27 < muurkha> totally inert materials: silicon, silver, glass, EVA, copper.  waste is a nonissue
00:27 < hprmbridge> Eli> ‘’’The first, lead, is widely used for soldering electronic components together. Each standard solar panel contains about 14 grams of lead [1]. That means about 4,400 tons of lead were used to make the 92 GW of solar panels installed in 2018 [2]. This is a large amount but still comparatively small relative to the 9,000,000 tons used for batteries each year. But for an industry focused on
00:27 < hprmbridge> Eli> sustainability, the goal is to remove lead altogether. By 2026, solar manufacturers plan to reduce the use of lead-based solder to less than 50% of panels [3] and to use lead in less than 20% cell manufacturing [4]. These numbers should continue to shrink until lead is removed from the solar supply chain.’’’
00:28 < hprmbridge> Eli> IMO, there is no safe level of lead you can consume
00:28 < muurkha> that's bullshit too
00:29 < hprmbridge> Eli> Ok
00:29 < muurkha> I mean it's just obsessive innumerate nonsense
00:30 < fenn> ingesting lead is bad, but if panels end up in a landfill the lead isn't going anywhere
00:30 < muurkha> you don't think 15 ppb is safe?  maybe not.  0.015 ppb?  probably.  0.000015 ppb? at some point you have to say "yes"
00:31 < hprmbridge> Eli> It’s likely a continuum. Bad to worse.
00:31 < hprmbridge> Eli> There is no level of lead I’m ok with. And I say that knowing I ingest lead all the time
00:31 < fenn> it's a symptom of distrust in corrupt authorities that have lied about similar issues in the past, and continue to lie
00:31 < muurkha> lead is 14 ppm of the earth's crust naturally
00:32 < muurkha> on average
00:32 < fenn> that doesn't mean the lead is 14 ppm in the water
00:32 < muurkha> no, 15 ppb is the US EPA's limit level for drinking water, which might be too high
00:33 < hprmbridge> Eli> Just based on leads MOA in the body, my bias is that I would be happy to have none of it in my system.
00:33 < muurkha> you can't have none of anything in anything.  everything is contaminated with everything else.
00:33 < hprmbridge> Eli> I agree
00:34 < fenn> we'll get there some day
00:34 < fenn> atoms are real
00:34 < muurkha> at some point we're talking about reducing the levels of lead in a brick from 1000 times lower than natural levels to a million times lower.  it's just dumb.
00:34 < fenn> "real numbers" are not real
00:35 < muurkha> and IIRC most solar panels are already lead-free because of RoHS
00:35 < fenn> RoHS has an exemption for solar panels
00:35 < muurkha> oh?  I didn't know that
00:35 < muurkha> apparently IDNRC
00:37 < fenn> "should not prevent the development of renewable energy technologies that have no negative impact on health and the environment and that are sustainable and economically viable." https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:174:0088:0110:EN:PDF
00:39 < fenn> ugh how do page numbers even work
00:39 < fenn> anyway search the pdf for "photovoltaic panels"
00:40 < muurkha> https://sinovoltaics.com/learning-center/certifications/eu-rohs/ says RoHS limits lead to 1000ppm in solar panels (which, yes, could be 14 g per panel)
00:41 < fenn> maybe that's why they're so damn heavy
00:42 < muurkha> https://sinovoltaics.com/learning-center/certifications/china-rohs/ says China has enacted a similar rule for products sold and produced in China
00:42 < hprmbridge> Eli> based on doing business with china, I would say I trust nothing they say when it comes to regulations
00:43 < hprmbridge> Eli> you can just pay the inspectors money and they leave
00:43 < hprmbridge> Eli> theyre kind of like america in the 1800s
00:43 < muurkha> https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/07/the-weekend-read-taking-the-lead/ says about 12 g of lead per module
00:44 < muurkha> in America in the 1800s they didn't criminally prosecute executives for pollution
00:44 < hprmbridge> Eli> prosecuting people is a recent thing.
00:44 < hprmbridge> Eli> I think they just rounded up a few people to make an example of them
00:45 < muurkha> looks like I was totally wrong about lead being in the panels
00:45 < hprmbridge> Eli> but, in general, corruption is just a form of doing business over them.
00:46 < muurkha> but I still think it's not worth worrying about
00:47 < fenn> lead free modules are 0.1% less efficient and 0.5% more expensive
00:48 < fenn> “For fully integrated module manufacturers with an annual capacity of one gigawatt, however, this is a million euros less profit. Since manufacturers already have tight margins, that’s too much,” says Neuhaus. “That’s why they’re not switching.”
00:48 < muurkha> not 0.1% less efficient, 0.1 percentage points less efficient
00:49 < muurkha> which is about 0.5% less efficient
00:49 < fenn> you're going to have to explain that one
00:51 < fenn> it's a 19.9% efficient panel instead of a 20% efficient panel?
00:54 < fenn> anyway these are tiny numbers and it's probably worth the industry fixing the issue just so anti-solar messaging has one less lead bullet to use as ammunition
00:56 < fenn> it would add 0.06% to the install cost
00:56 < fenn> that's $6
00:57 < fenn> i'm surprised california hasn't mandated lead free panels yet?
01:00 < muurkha> right, exactly
01:02 < fenn> it would probably cost $600 to certify that the panels are lead free
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01:02 < fenn> just a wild guess
01:13 < muurkha> or maybe $20k
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01:28 < fenn> this paper claims that standard 20% efficient solar panels are equivalent to increasing albedo by .08 because they convert sunlight into electricity instead of heat, and also because they offset energy imports. they specifically contrast this to painting things white: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep43938
01:32 < fenn> tbh i don't really get it
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01:37 < fenn> the energy is going to be turned into heat eventually
01:48 < muurkha> yes, it will
01:49 < muurkha> probably immediately, but perhaps hundreds of km away
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07:27 < uzkruh> Will human civilization ever advance to a point that it's existence is justified?
07:27 < hprmbridge> kanzure> will you ever advance to the point where your questions are justified?
07:28 < hprmbridge> kanzure> did you read the responses last time or are you just asking for kicks?
07:31 < uzkruh> I didn't see any responses; was disconnected
07:31 < hprmbridge> kanzure> read the logs
07:36 < uzkruh> Hmm
07:36 < uzkruh> Logs say "no"'
07:36 < uzkruh> Buddhism still correct
07:37 < uzkruh> No amount of advancement will make organic life other than monstrous
07:39 < uzkruh> Annihilation of the biosphere is morally justified for eliminating suffering; all happiness is at the expense of others.
07:39 < uzkruh> Bring on the nukes
07:48 < hprmbridge> kanzure> why not do uplifting instead, to eliminate suffering other than through extinction
07:48 < uzkruh> Is that possible?
07:49 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://www.hedweb.com/
07:49 < uzkruh> Ah, I remember this site
07:51 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://discord.com/channels/1064664281993461820/1064664282450628710/1081759095855529994
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07:52 < hprmbridge> kanzure> http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2009/03/uplifting-animals-yes-we-should.html
07:52 < hprmbridge> kanzure> http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/will-we-uplift-other-species-to-sapience.html
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07:55 < uzkruh> Sapient species suffer the most
07:56 < uzkruh> Why not engineer Dream Apes?
07:56 < uzkruh> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diaspora_(novel)
08:09 < nsh> (equally we might just as well cease denying the sentience of all nondual reality)
08:09 < nsh> (which takes remarkably little work, thought an amount of practice)
08:09 < nsh> *though
08:12 < uzkruh> Then reality must be destroyed
08:16 < nsh> gesundheit
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09:25 < TMA> no need to destroy reality. it looks like it will eventually destroy itself
09:27 < TMA> just by increasing entropy
10:36 < jrayhawk> Biology is exponential growth and competition over shared resources. Suffering is intrinsic to resource limitation and competition. Harm minimization as a primary moral paradigm always ends in anti-biotism. Instead of minimizing harm, maximize good. Find value/meaning in something outside of suffering. You can associate reward with almost anything. You might need outside help to bootstrap it.
10:51 < jrayhawk> Almost everyone would prefer to avoid & externalize moral accountability rather than help you develop values and meaning. From those people you will learn to similarly avoid & externalize moral accountability. Their kindness tears down your capacity to take on responsibility. Find people who help build you up.
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11:57 < hprmbridge> thesimu> hey, I just joined this server. I am working with @ml3 and @jonahwei .
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11:58 < kanzure> hello thesimu
12:02 < kanzure> about us: https://diyhpl.us/wiki/hplusroadmap
13:36 < fenn> "what many pet owners would like is not for animals to be Uplifted to even near-human sapience... without first increasing their lifespan. I mean, take the most visible American pet: the dog. On average they live a little over 12 years. And then they're gone."
13:37 < fenn> "how would an intelligent sentient animal feel knowing that their life is so much shorter than that of humans? Imagine if you only had 20 years to learn all you could before you died... and the first six years of that was still being a toddler and learning the basics?"
13:38 < fenn> "What we need to do is to unlock longevity in animals. We need to breed longer-living animals... and animals that live a healthy life for longer, not just living the last five years needing constant care.
13:38 < hprmbridge> kanzure> how about an animal intelligence competition
13:39 < fenn> does X prize have one of those yet
13:40 < hprmbridge> kanzure> no
13:42 < fenn> what if roy batty were a bat
13:43 < fenn> "a species called Brandt's bat weighs only about seven grams, yet lives for over 40 years in the wild"
13:43 < fenn> this is especially weird because bats have heightened metabolism
13:44 < muurkha> fenn: progeria is a thing too
13:45 < muurkha> the bat is pretty surprising
13:45 < fenn> what are you saying about progeria?
13:47 < muurkha> people with progeria die around 20 despite still spending about six years being a toddler and learning the basics
13:49 < fenn> yes, that sucks. some people get sick and die sooner than others
13:49 < muurkha> it'd be better if we could cure progeria but I don't think anyone has ever seriously suggested that a person with progeria would be better off if you destroyed their higher brain functions with psychosurgery in infancy
13:49 < fenn> again with the absurd logical equivalences
13:49 < muurkha> so this just seems like status quo bias and perhaps the kind of antibiotism jrayhawk alluded to stemming from negative utilitarianism
13:50 < fenn> what do you tell roy batty then?
13:50 < fenn> "sucks to be you, would you rather never have existed at all? we can't go back and change anything though"
13:50 < muurkha> "please let me live"
13:53 < fenn> hypothetical scenario A: a new cloning technique enables creating arbitrarily many new humans, but they have an epigenetic defect that causes progeria. do you make lots of clones with progeria?
13:53 < muurkha> exactly.  closely analogous to the dog thing
13:55 < fenn> uh.. the answer is obviously "no" right?
13:56 < fenn> am i guilty of status quo bias?
13:56 < fenn> anti-biotism?
13:57 < fenn> i'd rather not live in a barn yard, waiting to die with no hope, while just barely preferring life over death
13:57 < muurkha> isn't that how you've spent your entire life already?
13:58 < fenn> no?
13:58 < fenn> life could be a lot better, sure
13:59 < muurkha> maybe the difference is that you're proposing to pen the clones up in a barnyard for some reason?
14:00 < fenn> i was vaguely gesturing at the barnyard paradox in utilitarianism
14:00 < fenn> which doesn't exist on this timeline, unfortunately, but i'm sure you can figure it out
14:02 < fenn> i wasn't created with the expectation of being miserable
14:05 < fenn> https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/repugnant-conclusion/
14:05 < muurkha> I don't think the progeria clones would be either; that seems to be begging the question
14:09 < fenn> well i don't know anyone with progeria. are they happy? miserable? feeling doomed or grateful?
14:10 < muurkha> they seem to be only slightly more depressed than average people, from what I can tell from interviews
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15:15 < fenn> probably not relevant to the root cause of aging but it might go somewhere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farnesyltransferase_inhibitor
15:16 < fenn> lonafarnib is a first in class drug used to treat hutchinson-gilford progeria
15:31 < fenn> and on the other side of the spectrum, "Her condition -- so rare that there is no name for it -- will be showcased in "My 40-Year-Old Child," a one-hour TLC documentary ... follows Gabby and her family, as well as Nicky Freeman, a middle-aged Australian in the body of a 10-year-old, as they try to unravel the medical mystery."
15:33 < fenn> "Their chromosomes are normal, but they all have cognitive deficiencies. Gabby is blind and will never speak."
15:38 < fenn> "If somebody said to me, 'I could fix her,'" her father said, "I would tell them, she's not broken."
15:39 < fenn> brooke greenberg died at age 20, a small child
16:04 < hprmbridge> kanzure> or mario bosco's panhypopituitarism
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18:38 < L29Ah> pretty sure pet owners won't like their uplifting to near-human level of intelligence since it would open them up for slavery criticism and would endanger their godlike reputation in their pets' brains
18:39 < L29Ah> why would anyone have pets when one can cooperate and live together with human{,s}?
18:39 < hprmbridge> kanzure> aren't we all slaves to reality tho
18:40 < L29Ah> it's irrelevant to ethics and public policy
18:41 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it's like those monkey laborers. for all you know that's their ticket out of monkey poverty but you want to discuss the ethics of it all...
18:42 < hprmbridge> kanzure> (the thailand monkey labor)
18:45 < L29Ah> i don't, i just tell that it would be a problematic consequence of uplifting
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--- Log closed Wed Jul 05 00:00:50 2023