--- Log opened Sun Jul 16 00:00:00 2023
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12:53 < hprmbridge> fennfoot> @jason.crawford: i had a dream that i slept in my car in the parking lot of the progress studies institute. got in late the previous night for the conference. i worriedly pressed at the wet acoustic foam lining the hard top convertible roof, re-seating the window seal and working the toggle latch repeatedly until it felt like it was seated properly, idly wondering which mechanism entry this was
12:53 < hprmbridge> fennfoot> represented by in SKDB. then i got out and double checked the signage to make sure i wouldn't get towed, clutching the yellow backpack i had been carrying around since middle school and my paperback copy of "logarithmic growth" - a classic. i trudged across the wet autumn leaves on the vast wooded estate towards the former church...
12:57 < fenn> in reality my car is not so cool, there is no progress studies institute, i lost the backpack, SKDB doesn't have any mechanism representations, and i haven't even read logarithmic growth. so i guess it's progress?
13:01 < fenn> it's fine though, you can get most of the utility of the book from just the title
13:01 < fenn> reading more has diminishing returns
13:01 < fenn> *rimshot*
13:01 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I audibly sighed.
13:03 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> However on the topic of logarithmic growth etc upon my compulsive googling I ran into this post: https://calculatedcontent.com/2015/01/16/the-bitcoin-crash-and-how-nature-works/ and went down a rabbit hole of renormalization group in finance
13:04 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I suspect if you use proper priors you could use higher order expansions of the renormalization group to get really good predictive fits
13:06 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I wonder if you could use a proper Bayesian filtering setup to predict crashes and somehow profit. I suspect something about option mispricing close to the critical time is probably exploitable
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13:31 < fenn> i'm glad the history of technology class is free for the .000001% of the population that really deserves it
13:42 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> ?
13:42 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Sorry that didn't parse
13:47 < fenn> jason is teaching a class about technological problems and their solutions through the ages, and it's free for students of the academy of thought and industry, a montessori school with ~100 students with a $5k/mo tuition cost
13:48 < fenn> problems and their technological solutions*
13:52 < fenn> have we automated the grading of papers yet?
15:15 < kanzure> "From second thoughts on the germ theory to a full-blown host theory" https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301186120 (at some point science will have to admit we have already moved on to an era of inflammology)
17:55 < fenn> might be doing some maintenance, irc-discord bridge may go down
18:09 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2023/07/16/the-next-frontier-for-large-language-models-is-biology/?sh=7084e79b6f05
18:11 < hprmbridge> kanzure> see also https://twitter.com/geochurch/status/1680714270869168130
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19:35 < hprmbridge> jkhales> Exciting, but the Q for me is where they are going to get all the data.
19:35 < hprmbridge> jkhales>
19:35 < hprmbridge> jkhales> LLM's allow you to trade cleverness in model design for massive data.
19:35 < hprmbridge> jkhales>
19:35 < hprmbridge> jkhales> So the trick is how to set the problem up so you produce a lot of data.
19:35 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it seems like a way of saying we are out of ideas really
19:42 < fenn> it's a way of saying "shovel some of that hype money over in this direction prrease"
19:42 < fenn> biology has metric fucktonnes of data
19:42 < hprmbridge> kanzure> biology is hard, but I'm sure adding regulatory barriers will fix everything
19:43 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yeah but is it useful data
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22:42 < hprmbridge> Eli> They seem to be claiming it will come from rapid sequencing among other things
22:43 < hprmbridge> Eli> As the price of sequencing decreases, I could see a major increase in data
22:48 < hprmbridge> Eli> This sort of sounds like alphafold on steroids. I’m curious how much of this will translate to reality. There’s probably a large combinatorial space of possible proteins that does absolutely nothing
22:49 < hprmbridge> Eli> And getting drugs through the fda can be incredibly difficult based on erooms law
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--- Log closed Mon Jul 17 00:00:01 2023