--- Log opened Sat Jan 13 00:00:27 2024
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13:14 < hprmbridge> jay_dugger> Hello everyone
13:15 < Lando-SpacePimp> HUGGEES
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16:15 < hprmbridge> kanzure> synthetic biology and machine learning https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acssynbio.3c00760
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18:17 < hprmbridge> kanzure> why again is the CIA funding this? https://www.forbes.com/sites/allbusiness/2024/01/08/fundraising-for-long-time-horizon-startups-how-ben-lamm-raised-225-million/?sh=21001ae64c64
18:29 < fenn> biowarfare, rapid vaccine development, etc
18:29 < fenn> the mammoth is just a demo of their tech stack
18:30 < hprmbridge> kanzure> ah yes, the mammoth wars?
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18:41 < fenn> i never saw anything really compelling, but maybe they are just playing their cards close to the chest, only to be shown to potential investors
18:41 < fenn> "now with more AI!"
18:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> We'll live in age where mammoths have a tech stack.
18:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> But de-extinction is a missnomer as the resultant mammoth will be a synthetic creature based ontop of shards of mammoth dna and contemporary elephant. So it's also demoing the ability to create completely synthetic creatures if not from the ground up atleast with considerable modifications
18:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Why wouldn't governments etc be interested in a bioinformatics suite needed for a project like *that*
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19:22 < muurkha> perhaps because they can't tell the difference between that and ESP, time travel, and orbital mind control lasers
19:23 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Okay you do have a point. They've invested in some complete bunk before. Seriously I can't believe they managed to get funding for ESP research
19:32 < hprmbridge> Eli> Bringing back mammoths in the next few years eh? Might be an Elon musk time schedule
19:35 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Probably the plan for the one I read about ages ago was to use asian elephants as surrogate mothers, issue is asian elephants are already under threat so to take up some of their reproductive capacity to bring back mammoths is (1) problematic and (2) slow to get to the population you want I suspect
19:35 < muurkha> ESP research is one of those things where in retrospect it's easier to know it was stupid
19:36 < muurkha> of course it contradicted things "everybody knew" about how the universe worked
19:36 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> That was my main issue with it, like if they had a viable proposed mechanism I'd see it
19:37 < muurkha> but so did heavier-than-air flight, the first world war, women's suffrage, the theory of relativity, the atomic bomb, and the AK-47
19:37 < Hooloovoo> we were able to exclude the null hypothesis because it's bullshit
19:37 < muurkha> when Becquerel reported his anomalous results from uranium fogging photographic plates, nobody had a viable preserved mechanism
19:38 < Hooloovoo> it's been like a hundred fifty years
19:39 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I'd argue the atomic bomb and AK-47 were all founded on principle known before the actual engineering got done.
19:39 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Heavier than air flight a lot of the understanding developed after the fact I think. And I'd argue sociological events aren't comparable because they were always possible within the framework of thought it's just bias and willful ignorance prevented people from seeing
19:40 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> WW1 was predicted by many, famously Bismarck on his deathbed basically argued something in that area would set of a Domino effect
19:40 < Hooloovoo> in high school history they teach the powder keg model
19:41 < Hooloovoo> it didn't actually matter which archduke was asassinated. europe was going to war no matter what
19:41 < muurkha> Hooloovoo: things are often a lot more obvious in retrospect ;)
19:42 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> muurkha: also becquerel did observe a repeatable phenomenon and talked about it he didn't get CIA blackproject funding out the gate, it took until the Manhattan project for that
19:42 < muurkha> agreed, but the CIA didn't exist at the time, and also he was French
19:42 < muurkha> sure, at an engineering level, the AK-47 didn't involve any physical principles more novel than guncotton
19:43 < muurkha> but at a political level, it turned the logic of colonialism on its head
19:43 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Hooloovoo: yeah powder keg is basically right, the pre-WW1 idea from international relations of maximising entanglement and interrelationship was doomed to failure and it took some insightful people to predict it and it happened regardless
19:44 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Oh the AK-47 was. Well affordable violence
19:44 < muurkha> the assumption that a small, well-equipped army from a rich country could kill any number of poor illiterate peasants from a third-world country, because (as the famous satirical poem goes) "we have got / the Maxim gun / and they have not"
19:44 < muurkha> without taking significant losses
19:44 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Well tell the Zulus that lol
19:45 < muurkha> the Zulus lost
19:45 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> But yeah general principle pre-ak was more or less correct
19:45 < muurkha> as long as they had spears instead of AK-47s
19:45 < Hooloovoo> that's been proved wrong-ish several times due to guerilla warfare. but still
19:45 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> muurkha: was disputing no losses
19:45 < muurkha> that began to change in the Korean War and was most conspicuously overturned in the Vietnam War
19:45 < muurkha> true!  they did inflict significant losses
19:46 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Yeah and so did the horrible "meta" of guerilla and insergent warfare begin
19:46 < muurkha> it wasn't clear until well into the Manhattan Project how well the chain-reaction thing was going to work
19:47 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> And it's only gotten better now we have drones
19:47 < muurkha> there were a lot of very difficult engineering challenges to overcome
19:47 < muurkha> ahead of time it wasn't predictable that they would be tractable
19:47 < muurkha> probably without computers some wouldn't have been
19:48 < Hooloovoo> didn't the first bomb (the uranium gun one)  only have like a 15/16 or something chance of detonation
19:48 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Oh yeah but you could in principle point to a mechanism and go "given this model a uniforms uranium 235 sphere Xcm in radius would be super critical"
19:48 < muurkha> oh, sure.  but if you tried to assemble it by hand it would just make a blue flash and kill you
19:48 < muurkha> not destroy a city
19:48 < Hooloovoo> if they didn't get a neutron decay at the right time it would fizzle and do basically nothing
19:48 < muurkha> dunno, Hooloovoo, it's possible.  I don't remember that
19:48 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> You can actually solve for uranium sphere criticality more or less analytically
19:49 < muurkha> for a contrasting picture, consider fusion energy, which has been obviously possible since the 01950s (since H-bombs do it) but so far has proved to be infeasible from an engineering perspective
19:49 < muurkha> similarly, passenger rockets to the antipodes
19:49 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> It's a pain and I dislike calculus calculations but it's doable
19:50 < muurkha> more recent examples of things that lots of experts confidently predicted were impossible include YouTube and most things that LLMs do
19:50 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Oh well fusion energy is viable if you have a big (like very big) underground blast chamber and detonated a H bomb in it every now and then and used the heat flux to warm water
19:50 < muurkha> 25 years ago the conventional wisdom was that video over the internet was impossible
19:50 < muurkha> 20 years ago the conventional wisdom was that it was possible, but only peer-to-peer
19:51 < muurkha> 17 years ago YouTube started
19:51 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> They're only impossible in logistics though, it's always has an in principle mechansim. And iirc the p2p is mostly about cost of hosting many many outgoing video streams
19:51 < muurkha> alonzoc: nobody has demonstrated that working, but I agree that it ought to
19:51 < muurkha> right, exatly
19:51 < muurkha> *exactly
19:52 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> LLMs I'll kinda give you but scaling laws were known for a while which is what spurred the investment to build giant models. You have a proposed mechanism you can use to justify investment of millions dollars of compute
19:53 < muurkha> it's been a gradual process of discovery
19:53 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Also I'm still skeptical of scaling laws the asymptotics of a bayesian learning algorithm generalisation error (aprox equal to loss) should be O(1/n) with n being dataset size
19:53 < muurkha> ten years ago was before even AlphaGo, which was of course not an LLM, wasn't it?
19:54 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Yeah before alpha go
19:54 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> That I defenitely will give you
19:54 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> AlphaGo *was* a suprise
19:54 < muurkha> yes, AlphaGo started in 02014
19:55 < muurkha> says Wikipedia.  which, btw, is another thing that obviously wouldn't work, until we tried it
19:55 < muurkha> Wikis in general are another thing that obviously wouldn't work
19:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> AlphaGo was unexpected but there wasn't a reason a large neural net MCTS setup wouldn't work it was just potentially not going to.
19:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Wikis I'd agree with more as they're surprising
19:56 < muurkha> Bitcoin was also known to be impossible before it was done
19:56 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I think that was more people misunderstanding Byzantine fault tolerance results
19:57 < muurkha> Dan Kaminsky famously argued that it must be insecure because it violated Zooko's Triangle, which led to Aaron pointing out that it actually showed a way to solve Zooko's Triangle
19:57 < muurkha> it wasn't *misunderstanding* exactly
19:58 < muurkha> http://www.aaronsw.com/weblog/squarezooko
19:58 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Or well people tend to over extrapolate quite benign theorems
19:58 < muurkha> Bitcoin in fact doesn't solve the classical consensus problem
19:58 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Take that bloody "well regulator theorem"
19:58 < muurkha> not familiar
19:59 < muurkha> but the Bitcoin consensus is only ever probabilistic, and economic in nature
19:59 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Famous result in control theory and the papers not to good but it's basically a case of lot's of people read the title and saw it was published and basically took the title as true
19:59 < muurkha> history-rewriting attacks have frequently been successful on small cryptocurrencies
19:59 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Well there are consensus algorithms with non-probabilistic finality
20:00 < fenn> orbital mind control lasers are real tho
20:00 < fenn> it costs $100/mo
20:01 < muurkha> that's just what they want you to think
20:01 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Absolute finality gaurentees are all the rage these days. No potential for going back and changing things etc. they require PoS or basically any system where you have an appointed validator set not PoW but they're formally verified
20:01 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Lot's of people saw classic results and over extrapolated what types of systems they restrict
20:02 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> fenn: yeah they're called short form content social media
20:02 < muurkha> I'm still not sure PoS is brain-in-a-jar-resistant
20:03 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> It's resistant up until someone get >33% of the wealth
20:03 < muurkha> if you're a brain in a jar, you might be confused about who has >33% (or >90%) of the wealth
20:04 < muurkha> suppose you're bringing up a new node and you reach out to connect to the existing network, but unbeknownst to you, 95% of the nodes you talk to are NSA sybils
20:04 < muurkha> Bitcoin PoW is resistant to this situation (though, obviously, not if 95% is 100%) but I'm not convinced PoS is
20:06 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> If you're network has a complete history it's not really an issue because so long as someone can show me the finalised consensus path from the genesis I'll be convinced. So long as I can get the genesis block of a well built PoS system you should be good
20:07 < muurkha> how do you tell the true genesis block from the false ones?
20:09 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Well bitcoin has that problem to to some extent, you need some ground truth be it the bitcoin protocol being implemented properly etc
20:09 < hprmbridge> alonzoc>
20:09 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> The genesis state would be part of the protocol like a network id, it becomes a magic number like you have in your elliptical curves
20:10 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> If I build off the wrong genesis I don't think there is any way I can switch to the bitcoin mainnet under their branch selection
20:10 < muurkha> I guess you're right about that
20:10 < muurkha> *elliptic curves
20:12 < fenn> the true genesis block has the most work piled on
20:13 < fenn> oh, proof of stake. good luck with that
20:15 < fenn> has mozilla or someone timestamped root certs on the blockchain
20:16 < fenn> there ought to be some way to bootstrap cert trust
20:17 < muurkha> the true tip has the most work piled on
20:17 < fenn> if there are different genesis blocks, they're not branches of a tree
20:17 < muurkha> but if someone gives you a different genesis block with more work piled on, that's probably just a different cryptocurrency
20:18 < fenn> or a false bitcoin
20:18 < fenn> it's just semantics
20:19 < muurkha> I mean, in practice, I don't think that a Bitcoin client that starts off with the wrong genesis block will ever switch to the right one, which is what alonzoc asserted and contrary to what I was previously asserting
20:19 < muurkha> I haven't done the experiment though
20:20 < muurkha> it's not just semantics, though.  we're actually talking about different predictions that can be empirically verified
20:25 < fenn> the original batch of "altcoins" were exactly this
20:25 < muurkha> I think that's correct, although they might have changed the code to only use their new genesis block
20:45 < fenn> new LK99 paper:
20:45 < fenn> .t https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999
20:45 < EmmyNoether> [2401.00999] Possible Meissner effect near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite
20:50 < fenn> could just be chasing ghosts
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21:52 < hprmbridge> fodagut> There is strong theoretical justification for LK99 being a superconductor. There is also strong theoretical reasons to believe that none of the manufacturing methods attempted last summer were making real LK-99
21:53 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> You refering to the DFT sims? Iirc they only suggested something interesting was going on with LK-99
21:53 < hprmbridge> fodagut> muurka: the genesis block is hard coded. You can’t reorg to a different one in any version of bitcoin.
21:55 < hprmbridge> fodagut> Yes and no. I’m referring to the bank gaps intrinsic in an apatite structure with strictly alternating copper/lead atoms along the main backbone.
21:56 < hprmbridge> fodagut> DFT sims show this should have superconducting properties, although the sims aren’t accurate enough to guarantee this.
21:56 < muurkha> fodagut: thanks for the confirmation
21:56 < muurkha> do you mean "band gaps"?
21:56 < hprmbridge> fodagut> Yes ducking autocorrect got me.
21:57 < hprmbridge> fodagut> No manufacturing process described in the literature should make strictly alternating atomic arrangements though.
21:57 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Yeah that's the downside with DFT sadly anything better would be a "very" expensive computation
21:58 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> I guess you just gotta assemble it atom by atom then
21:58 < muurkha> what, like dolomite?
21:58 < muurkha> perish the thought
21:58 < hprmbridge> fodagut> That’s the plan!
21:59 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Wasn't there also something about necessity of sulfur contamination or something
22:00 < hprmbridge> fodagut> I’d have to reread the papers.
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23:53 < Ashstar> I just watched "searching for Bobby Fisher" again. Great movie. Made me realie we all have sparks of Genius in us, some more capable of tapping into it, focusing, disciplining ourselves towards that
23:56 < Ashstar> intelligence is a potential that we have, that so many waste on shit
--- Log closed Sun Jan 14 00:00:28 2024