--- Log opened Tue Feb 06 00:00:51 2024
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01:30 < hprmbridge> Eli> I honestly think this study was blown out of proportion. It’s a small n-value that needs to be repeated. And even if it did do something to increase adult plasticity, Valproate is not the stuff you want to take to do it. It can jack up your androgen system and also cause liver failure. If you’re on it you must regularly get blood panels to watch out for this stuff. If this study actually can be
01:30 < hprmbridge> Eli> replicated, it would be more useful to find out the actual MOA instead of just guessing. Maybe it’s HDACi or maybe something else. Way too early to say. But an understanding of the MOA would allow for an actual drug target with a less dirty drug.
01:33 < hprmbridge> Eli> Let us know how it looks and how bright it is. My mom would love something like this
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02:05 < nsh> .m https://twitter.com/QiaochuYuan/status/1754730995008557230
02:05 < AugustaAva> ​twitter: <QiaochuYuan> somebody help me finish this i’ve only got four lines in me ␤  ␤ —- ␤  ␤ there once was a man who thought himself clever, ␤ who spreadsheeted love like a fiscal endeavor, ␤ who tallied his lovers as profits or loss, ␤ and once he found better he’d give them the toss https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFoOifYacAAKfWP.jpg
02:17 < nsh> some half decent replies too
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04:03 < hprmbridge> Eli> Isn’t this just approaching love from the perspective of an economist?
04:08 < hprmbridge> Eli> Economists do a lot of mathematical simulations that make them seem like psychopaths. In fact, there are tests where psychopaths and economists score very similarly
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06:27 < nsh> has vanishingly little to do with love, economics or mathematics
06:30 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> What annoys me about Yud isn't that he's putting numbers to things, as I more or less agree that in principle everything could be quantified using bayesian epistemology and utility functions. But we aren't logically omniscient and our minds don't have direct access to subjective probabilities nor direct utilities. So Yud's whole P(doom) and "I will trade up under condition XYZ" is total bullshit
06:30 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> because he's making precise formal statements using variables that can't be practically calculated/reported/measured
06:30 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> It's all applying precision without accuracy
06:32 < nsh> bullshit is too kind. bullshit is what a used-car salesman will tell you. this is taking the grossly misapplied appropriation of scientific rigour to the extreme of becoming a cultural hazard
06:32 < nsh> it's equal parts pitiful and contemptible 
06:32 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Bayes isn't gonna magically ignore garbage in garbage out
06:33 < nsh> when a 'sports scientist' throws out percentages you can just sort of squint and say they're probably not going to hurt anyone
06:33 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Thing is I think he's probably done the most damage to AI safety going, MIRI was a money sink that dropped all practical lines of research and focused on jerked off about Yud's magic UDT
06:33 < L29Ah> i find my probabilities estimation skill quite decent // https://manifold.markets/a2bb/calibration
06:33 < nsh> but this became an actual way people with serious jobs and the ability to do harm started thinking
06:34 < L29Ah> it's more a question of skill that is often overlooked due to how language is/is used in the culture, than an innate property of humans
06:36 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> To be honest I had an argument with some people who were totally against EA, and like EA as a sociological blob is shit. But the general strategy of specifying goals and then trying to find the most efficient way to achieve said goals is just common sense, it's just EA doesn't actually do that. Fundamentally when arguing about some moral project once you agree on the "ought" statements, everything
06:36 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> from there on can be fairly rigorous. If you don't have a logical argument to persuade me your plan is going to achieve some goal that is agreed upon i'm not gonna support it
06:40 < nsh> 'Ye shall know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles? Even so every good tree bringeth forth good fruit; but a corrupt tree bringeth forth evil fruit. A good tree cannot bring forth evil fruit, neither can a corrupt tree bring forth good fruit. Every tree that bringeth not forth good fruit is hewn down, and cast into the fire. Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them.'
06:41 < nsh> (unless perhaps verbiage is considered a fruit)
06:41 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> The other important issue with Yud's approach is that "bayesian decision theory" is in principle optimal but for computers and human decision makers compute/thinking time has a cost. You can expend 10x more time finding the optimal pricing of an option at but if you take to long the price has moved and your computation was wasted. You fundamentally need to coarse grain and choose your precision
06:41 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> tolerance because your decisions take place in time
06:45 < nsh> indeed, almost nobody at the top of their game is deliberative, with perhaps the exception of judges and diplomats. competence is generally concomitant with the elimination of conscious deliberation - absorption into a state of flow that results from accumulated experience honed into reflex and wisdom, unburdened by ratiocination. 
06:45 < nsh> rationality is the exactly the kind of thing that manifests in the absence of actually doing something well
06:46 < nsh> nobody doing something well has sufficient time of all that naval gazing and pontification
06:46 < nsh> (exemplifying as i am)
06:49 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> Well if you have a situation where you have a non-trivial problem of strategy some degree of deliberation is necessary, however once strategy is decided it should only need revision given new unexpected data (also if you are "clever" your strategy should be like a decision tree). However for a lot of tasks like logistics a lot of the computational deliberation has been automated, for example in
06:49 < hprmbridge> alonzoc> supply chain network design
07:29 < hprmbridge> Eli> I don’t really know who you’d is or the context of the tweet. Just that economists use math model love markets, which seem to correspond well enough to what we see in reality. We can calculate the stable system of mating preferences
07:31 < hprmbridge> Eli> Actually biologists model the stable state of mating preferences too
07:48 < alethkit> How plausible is it to engineer bacteria that enjoy consuming tartar?
07:49 < kanzure> separate from the canaries vaccine thing?
07:50 < alethkit> yes
07:50 < alethkit> lantern bioworks only targets caries
07:50 < alethkit> this is focused on removing calculus (so mostly for periodontal reasons)
07:52 < L29Ah> tartar is poorly permeable and strong due to calcification, isn't it?
07:53 < L29Ah> i don't see how would you consume it without consuming enamel
07:53 < L29Ah> and pre-calcification it's just food remains stuck into bacteria-secreted slime iirc
07:54 < alethkit> L29Ah: it has an organic component too
07:57 < alethkit> there does seem to be a separate species that causes periodontitis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porphyromonas_gingivalis
08:25 < hprmbridge> kanzure>  https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1064664282450628710/1204462947389149194/image0.jpg?ex=65d4d288&is=65c25d88&hm=c9a99a4dfb8a04ea5b4445979878b54edcd78bb08fb2f88ca41562db2e849416&
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10:05 < hprmbridge> Eli> Economists and biologists “do it with models” 😎
10:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> I’ll show myself out
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11:05 < hprmbridge> kanzure> what's with the high school essay report voice https://youtu.be/xNmbvaUzC8Q?si=qXb4vc2db-dzroEn
11:28 < hprmbridge> kanzure> this '125% better' stuff is just a way of self-reporting an anxiety disorder, sorry
11:35 < hprmbridge> kanzure> the spreadsheet morality tweets really blew up https://twitter.com/RuxandraTeslo/status/1754594479774855660
11:35 < hprmbridge> kanzure> and particularly https://twitter.com/RuxandraTeslo/status/1754434271815536725
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13:10 < fenn> where can i make out with someone from roatan who received the the magic bacteria
13:10 < fenn> for science
13:12 < fenn> lumina didn't create the technology; what are we paying them $5k for exactly?
13:13 < fenn> the s. mutans vaccine/probiotic
13:15 < L29Ah> 22:10:02]<fenn> where can i make out with someone from roatan who received the the magic bacteria
13:15 < L29Ah> i've seen a few mentions on manifold.markets from the users
13:15 < L29Ah> it happens to also host manifold.love with the ~same user base
13:16 < fenn> interested in: recombinant engineered microbes and their hosts
13:19 < L29Ah> https://tinystash.undef.im/il/UXKz5b8iFSuwpK9mauUkDYDfauLXWZrzeC7yUQamXfmKu3mnrbUQFejbj3d9aTmgmHan6J2dhVqFHDuHK45GfuE.png
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15:28 < hprmbridge> kanzure> if society rejects genetically modified peoples, then we ought to at least grant them a homeland where they can go
15:28 < hprmbridge> kanzure> sanctuary isn't so bad of an idea
15:50 < hprmbridge> Eli> Roatan has been kind of weird to me. What do you call anarchy-libertarians who want to bring Western architecture and air conditioning and a laptop class to a developing country? Not trying to knock it but wouldn’t living with no electricity or plumbing with your own farm in Somalia be more of the paradise they are looking for?
15:53 < L29Ah> Somalia people with guns aren't very fond of libertarian values it seems
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15:57 < hprmbridge> Eli> Isn’t that the most libertarian thing? You get to own whatever gun you want.
15:57 < hprmbridge> Eli> Do they allow personal RPGs on Roatan?
15:57 < L29Ah> the most libertarian thing is people around you respecting your property rights
16:05 < hprmbridge> Eli> I don’t really want to get into a political/economic debate here. Obviously the government will take foreign investment for a state within a state , and in return, the people on the island will outsource the legal monopoly of violence, which is how you maintain property rights, to the Honduran government.
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18:21 < hprmbridge> kanzure> "Promotion of natural tooth repair by small molecule GSK3 antagonists" https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39654
18:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://openinterpreter.com/ llm/vision model to operate computers from natural language input
18:25 < hprmbridge> kanzure> natty language to python interpreter https://github.com/AbanteAI/rawdog
18:27 < hprmbridge> kanzure> "We spoke with Lockbit ransomware group regarding the allegations of murder. Lockbit administration staff said they never explicitly stated they wanted the XSS administrator murdered - they said they will do as they deem fit when they get his personal information." https://twitter.com/vxunderground/status/1755029185423196396
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18:36 < hprmbridge> kanzure> .gpt4 pde5 inhibitors and intelligence
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18:57 < fenn> .gpt4 pde5 inhibitors and intelligence
18:57 < fenn> lazy
18:59 < gptpaste> ​PDE5 inhibitors, such as sildenafil (Viagra), tadalafil (Cialis), and vardenafil (Levitra), are a class of medications primarily used to treat erectile dysfunction and, in some cases, pulmonary arterial hypertension. They work by inhibiting the enzyme phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5), which leads to an increase in cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) levels, causing relaxat - https://bin.gy/sectiadnec
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--- Log closed Wed Feb 07 00:00:51 2024