2012-05-27.log

--- Log opened Sun May 27 00:00:22 2012
makoIs there anyone capable of simulating a human and a convincing environment for it, who would have trouble predicting roughly what that human would do anyway?00:44
makoIs such an entity plausible?00:44
yashgarothby entity do you mean the simulator or the simulatee(?)?00:46
yashgaroththe copout answer is that you could run a separate instance of the simulation and see what happens, but I doubt that's what you mean00:48
makosimulator.00:50
makoAh that was downright ambiguous wasn't it.00:51
yashgarothmostly just calvinist00:52
makoExplain calvinism and how it applies to post-organic scenarios.00:55
JayDuggerI second mako's comment.00:55
yashgarothoh, I thought it was some broader philosophical reference to predestination00:56
JayDuggerAlright. That makes sense.00:56
makoPredestination, no, who cares about that.00:56
JayDuggerYou'd have been better off saying "predestination."00:57
makoMy concern is that there are certain things we should never reveal about how we work until we're sure we're not in a simulation.00:57
JayDuggerhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvinism#Five_points_of_Calvinism00:57
yashgarothehh, calvinism's only famous for that really, but you're right00:57
makoOr.. Well, a particular kind of simulation.00:57
JayDuggerYou might have meant total depravity, for all I knew.00:57
yashgarothwhat sort of things, and to whom would we reveal them?00:58
JayDuggerOnly famous for that? Not when my sister has a theology degree, it isn't.00:58
yashgarothheh00:58
JayDuggerAnyhow, $0.02 for the off-topic jar.00:58
yashgarothkanz doesn't appear to be awake so let's indulge in some philosophy00:59
JayDugger<Kicks rock> I refute it thus.01:00
makoSay some post-organic alien wanted to know if, given the chance, a human-derivative being would trash undisturbed life-supporting planets. Now, if they exist, they must have decided they don't want anyone doing that or we'd be trashed by now. If we revealed in a simulation that given the slack, we would violate their rules, it would be in their best interest to thwart our attempts to ascent before we can even understand why they're doin01:03
makog it.01:03
JayDuggerAnd?01:03
makoWe probably have ways of determining whether we've passed the point of simulatability.01:04
yashgaroththose aliens are probably too crippled by the question of whether they themselves are living in a simulation to worry about us01:05
JayDuggerDo you lie awake at night worrying that you actually exist as a brain in a vat?01:05
makoI laugh.01:06
makoI laugh when these things occur to me.01:06
makoI'm proposing that if we were heinous treaty-breakers, we should hold off on revealing it externally till we know for sure that any galaxy in which our essential nature would be a relevant, simulation-worthy matter, would not be able to simulate us.01:08
JayDuggerAnd how do you propose to enforce that?01:08
makoJust by telling people this. I expect a lot of intelligence from those powerful enough to matter.01:09
makoOf course the question is moot, because we are a benevolent species that would never break any treaties#01:09
mako*wonk*01:09
JayDuggerAnd powerful intelligent people will inevitably and indefinitely act in their own long-term best interest?01:09
makoThey don't have indefinate simulation power.01:10
makoIf they did, we wouldn't be worth getting concerned about.01:10
makoHm..01:11
yashgarothand how do we definitively determine how much simulation power they have01:11
makoConsider all universes in which our nature would be a worthwhile matter. If none of these universes could simulate us, we can break as many treaties as we like.01:11
makoI think I've hit a wall.01:12
JayDuggerPerhaps.01:12
makoThis just got too convoluted.01:12
yashgarothso can I safely break treaties if I'm wearing a foil hat? cuz I'm meeting with russia next week and I plan to fuck them over01:13
makoThere are, of course, other factors that come into play when it comes to shitting in the pool.01:14
makoBut if russia could be were simulating you now, I'd say you're already fucked, because if this conversation wasn't in their simulation, simulation you would have already acted out, and you're about to walk straight into their reaction to that.01:15
yashgarothah but I already simulated their reaction, and01:16
makoIf I could simulate 300 russians and their approximate environment, I'd just simulate myself at 2000x instead.01:17
mako2000:300, that doesn't make sense, I apologize.01:18
yashgarothI try not to simulate myself too often, it dulls the mind01:20
makoDepends where one places ones'self.01:21
yashgarothhave you considered taking the discussion to lesswrong? I'm sure it'd be right up their alley, what with all the, ahem, self-simulation that goes on there01:24
makoI'm still not sure it's worth thinking about.01:25
makoOr rather, I suspect I might be able to prove that it's not worth thinking about.01:26
yashgaroththat's true of most philosophy, I find01:26
makoYeah..01:27
yashgarothwhether or not the universe is a simulation is irrelevant; even if you can somehow prove it isn't, that doesn't give it any greater meaning01:28
makoWell no, if we can guess the nature of our simulators, that could be instructive on what we should try to do for a slim chance of escaping.01:29
makoBut I'd say it's overwhelmingly likely we can't. Ever.01:30
yashgarothI'll hold off on trying to guess until we're capable of simulating a universe ourselves01:30
yashgarothand on that note, I shall adjourn for the night01:34
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makoConcern that our behavior at a gestational stage, such as the one we're in now, would not predict our behavior at a dangerous stage. In that case it's not worth thinking about.01:54
makoConcern that the only thing worth thinking about is the acquisition of thinking enhancement tools.01:56
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kanzuremako: if you are interested in behavior optimization for a simulated universe, let me introduce you to my cult07:15
kanzurei wonder if i should redeploy those old websites.. it's a shame that they aren't immediately obviously a mockery of cults07:16
strangewarpSimulation is worth thinking about; in terms of ancestor-simulation and Big Universe resimulation, it may be likely. But because of the mechanics of those two possibilities, it's useless to worry about it.07:38
strangewarpNow, distributed brute-force resimulation in a Big Universe system may make cryonics irrelevant; but cryonics would still be useful to propagate versions of you in contexts you are more likely to care about. So /shrug07:40
chris_99have you read Nick Bostrom's articles on simulation07:41
chris_99i thought they were pretty interesting07:42
Urchinbig universe resimulation is a bit of a shot in the dark imo07:42
Urchinwho knows what kind of life forms you're going to end up with07:42
strangewarpUrchin: That's why I give it the caveats, yeah07:42
strangewarpchris_99: I ought to read them again; I may have glazed over parts of them07:42
Urchinalso, using it for imortality purposes doesn't make sense in the least07:43
strangewarpUrchin: In Big Universe, you'd end up with every physically possible set of lifeforms that can come to exist under rational topology07:44
strangewarpRelying on it for immortality purposes is a bit dodgy until it's definitively proven or disproven though, yes07:44
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strangewarpDefinitely serves as succour for us H+ intellectuals without cryonics or capital, though08:16
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kanzurestrangewarp: why don't you have capital?08:23
kanzuresounds like a silly thing to optimize for08:24
kanzuredose anyone have a plug-and-play symbolic regression package, possibly for R or python?08:31
kanzurei'm considering https://github.com/natekupp/ffx08:34
ParahSailinscipy stats08:36
kanzureParahSailin: i'm not aware of any symbolic regressors in scipy08:37
ParahSailinwhat was that famous symbolic regression one08:39
ParahSailineureqa08:40
strangewarpkanzure: Mostly because of dumb mistakes and emotional silliness that happened when I was younger. But with any luck I'll be more successful now.08:41
kanzureParahSailin: yeah, i know about eureqa :) i'll try that when ffx fails and/or annoys me too much08:42
ParahSailinwhat you regressin?08:42
kanzurestrangewarp: i wasn't trying to imply that capital==success, mind you08:42
strangewarphmm, noted08:42
kanzureParahSailin: nothing important; it's actually something i should be able to figure out on my own, but i have about ~300 test cases and not much progress08:43
kanzureParahSailin: i'm trying to extract an equation from eight variables in each of these 300 test cases08:43
kanzureerm, i mean, a formula that will work in each of these 300 cases, using these eight variables08:43
kanzureunfortunately there might be two formulas across this dataset (half the samples might be governed by a separate algorithm) but i'm not sure how to deal with this eventuality08:44
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ParahSailinwhats the data set09:16
kanzureParahSailin: pokemons09:18
kanzurealso: it looks like this ffx library was written by an electronic design automation company. neat.09:18
ParahSailinthere are only 300 pokemen?09:19
kanzureParahSailin: no, there's this part of the ROM that i'm disassembling for their weird map drawing algorithm.. they have "infinite maps" because maps connect to each other, and these map connections have some properties like a window and a 'connection strip pointer' that is- presumably- calculated from variables of the two maps involved09:20
kanzureParahSailin: see the diagram near the end here http://ximwix.net/mirrors/rhdn/index.php@topic=6427.0.html#msg10232909:20
kanzurehaha.. -17.8 + 0.224*connected_map_width * connected_map_height + 0.223*yoffset * connected_map_width + 0.194*connected_map_height * strip_length + 0.0380*yoffset * strip_length09:22
kanzurewell this can't be right09:22
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kanzuregeeze maybe i'm using it wrong. it can't even figure out "x+y+z".09:42
ParahSailinheh09:43
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kanzureParahSailin: eureqa found it immediately (at least, the x+y+z case)09:56
kanzureneuro-sys: hi.09:56
neuro-syshi kanzure09:57
ParahSailinsometimes the famous package is famous because it works pretty well10:18
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kanzuredamn, and here i was really hoping to talk with "mangoat12"12:43
kanzurewell, sort of.12:43
kanzureoh it's Guest88746.12:43
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kanzure"processes for "Turning silicon into machine-readable form". Nohl actually has an open source package to help do it."13:36
kanzure"Go read Tarnovsky's blog, where he has blogged about extracting keys from silicon"13:36
kanzurehrmm.13:36
kanzurehttp://www.flylogic.net/blog/?p=2513:36
kanzurei don't think that's it. any ideas?13:36
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