| --- Log opened Sun Jan 17 00:00:07 2016 | ||
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| lkjhfr | also, your scrollback hasn't been pushed out by messages | 00:57 |
|---|---|---|
| lkjhfr | https://irssi.org/documentation/settings/#scrollback_time | 00:58 |
| lkjhfr | this means that scrollback is shrinking all the time, even if people aren't posting messages | 01:00 |
| lkjhfr | it shrinks down to scrollback_lines after scrollback_time | 01:01 |
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| kanzure | accelerating expansion of the scrollback does not bode well for cosmological outcomes | 01:21 |
| lkjhfr | for five hours after 500 messages after the message from pasky that message wasn't yet 24 hours old, which means that it was pushed out by time | 01:33 |
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| lkjhfr | kanzure, is it because we can't use it as an argument against flooding? | 02:28 |
| archels | gotta love it when people include the words "an accidental finding" in the title of their paper | 02:57 |
| archels | .title http://www.hoajonline.com/stemcells/2054-717X/2/3 | 02:59 |
| yoleaux | Fulltext | Reversal of hair greying following autologous adipose mesenchymal stem cell transplantations: a coincidental finding | Stem Cell Biology and Research | 02:59 |
| justanotheruser | maaku: is there any reason I should be skeptical of opencog? I am looking into it's design, and I think it's kind of beautiful | 03:09 |
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| justanotheruser | I am a bit skeptical about all its moving parts. | 03:12 |
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| archels | .gc "deterministic.chaos" | 03:34 |
| yoleaux | archels: Sorry, that command (.gc) crashed. | 03:34 |
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| FourFire | > What about those alien megastructures? Schafer is unconvinced. “The alien-megastructure idea runs wrong with my new observations,” he says, as he thinks even advanced aliens wouldn’t be able to build something capable of covering a fifth of a star in just a century. | 04:00 |
| FourFire | I find that claim to be too conservative... | 04:00 |
| FourFire | The cryonics possibilities in europe were rather unfortunate last time I checked | 04:02 |
| FourFire | > <maaku> i wonder if one could reasonably harvest resources to create computronium from coronal mass ejections | 04:03 |
| FourFire | with fusion, everything is possible | 04:03 |
| FourFire | you just need to sacrifice a lot of energy to suppass Iron | 04:03 |
| pasky | xentrac: i have similar feelings about the backlog, but i honestly can't remember, you'll have to take a peek at the logs | 04:05 |
| FourFire | > <Houshalter> I believe that superintelligent humans would likely be bored, depressed, or wire headers. or some combination of them | 04:12 |
| FourFire | The bored, depressed, wireheaders will promptly filter themselves out of the population | 04:12 |
| FourFire | > <Houshalter> maaku, i am. but i won't change inot a different person, even over a thousand years. i will learn a lot, but my brain structure and personality will be about the same | 04:13 |
| FourFire | How old are you? | 04:13 |
| FourFire | Like, how long do you remember being conscious? | 04:14 |
| lkjhfr | i like bored and depressed. much better than stupid and annoying | 04:17 |
| FourFire | > <streety> one issue with unburdening the immune system so it is free to "take care of more useful things" is the hypothesis that this is a primary cause of the increasing incidence of allergies and auto-immune diseases | 04:21 |
| FourFire | there's some resaerch with strong evidence that absence of symbiotic gut bacteria increases allergic reactions | 04:22 |
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| lkjhfr | the ones that constitute dental plaque are the same that are supposedly synbiotic as a gut flora, it doesn't mean that it's good idea to keep them on teeth | 04:24 |
| FourFire | lkjhfr, but maybe we can keep them off teeth and in the gut at the same time? | 04:26 |
| lkjhfr | and those are left on teeth only because people eat processed foods, eating sweet fruits like apples actually cleans the teeth | 04:27 |
| cluckj | hygiene hypothesis | 04:56 |
| Diablo-D3 | well except the problem is | 05:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | we keep eating high sugar foods, which causes bacterial growth of the wrong kind of bacteria | 05:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | and then we compound the problem by using commercial detergents and floruide | 05:08 |
| streety | It is definitely important that the right bacteria be in the right place in the right quantity. Poor oral health causes problems but you don't want to swing too far in the opposite direction either | 05:16 |
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| kanzure | that's strange, i don't ever remember being conscious | 07:25 |
| kanzure | bitfury 16nm asic chip demo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zPpj1JYw38 | 07:27 |
| Diablo-D3 | whos fabbing it | 07:31 |
| Diablo-D3 | because no one is doing 16nm for small time stuff yet | 07:32 |
| Diablo-D3 | all of the 14/16nm stuff is being used by intel, amd, more amd, nvidia, and samsung | 07:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | oh and qualcomm for snapdragons | 07:35 |
| Diablo-D3 | and the joint intel/micron factory is churning out 16nm flash at that size | 07:36 |
| nsh | i bet i could fabricant 100 nomometers | 07:44 |
| nsh | meanwhile: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4081593/ | 07:45 |
| nsh | .title | 07:45 |
| yoleaux | Soma-to-Germline Transmission of RNA in Mice Xenografted with Human Tumour Cells: Possible Transport by Exosomes | 07:45 |
| nsh | all up in your central dogmas, killin' ur 'sumptions | 07:45 |
| * Diablo-D3 fabricates 100 omnommeters | 07:45 | |
| Diablo-D3 | nsh: construct additional pylori | 07:46 |
| nsh | okay, but i'm almost out of pylorum-bricks | 07:46 |
| FourFire | nsh, really? | 07:47 |
| nsh | nah, they're made out of common | 07:48 |
| nsh | .wa total mass of bacteria on earth | 07:48 |
| yoleaux | Earth: weight: bacteria: weight: (data not available) | 07:48 |
| nsh | pft | 07:48 |
| Diablo-D3 | heh, probably at least triple digit thousands of tons | 07:48 |
| nsh | ~30-40% of earth-life is microbial | 07:48 |
| nsh | and there's a whole heap of that kicking about | 07:49 |
| nsh | keep that wheel a-turnin | 07:49 |
| FourFire | anyone think there's any point in trying to produce this: http://memory.oyhus.no/ (patent is expired, I know the guy) | 07:49 |
| nsh | .title http://www.sdearthtimes.com/et0998/et0998s8.html | 07:49 |
| yoleaux | ET 9/98: First-ever estimate of total bacteria on earth | 07:49 |
| nsh | FourFire, good luck coding the microprocessor for wear-levelling that.... | 07:50 |
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| FourFire | nsh, if it's cheap enough, I figure you could just something stupid like mirror everything internally in the device and test for dead cells upon read | 07:50 |
| * nsh nods | 07:51 | |
| FourFire | so if it's 10x cheaper, make it 1/3 the price and use the cells | 07:51 |
| nsh | ECCs go a long way | 07:51 |
| FourFire | still, 10s of terabytes of flash in one device... | 07:51 |
| Diablo-D3 | "The team thus found that the total amount of bacterial carbon in the soil and subsurface to be yet another staggering number, 5 X 10**17 g or the weight of the United Kingdom." | 07:51 |
| Diablo-D3 | but it doesn't say the total weight damnit | 07:51 |
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| lkjhfr | and... all of this carbon is fixed by plants that grow out of soil | 09:06 |
| kanzure | https://petertodd.org/2016/soft-forks-are-safer-than-hard-forks | 09:07 |
| kanzure | http://earlz.net/view/2016/01/16/0717/analyzing-the-56-million-exploit-and-cryptsys-security | 09:07 |
| lkjhfr | i expected that firt link to be about plastic vs metal forks | 09:09 |
| maaku | justanotheruser design no, code yes. They make too many compromises, and the implementation is not self reflective | 09:14 |
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| justanotheruser | The implementation doesn't follow their specification maaku? | 12:17 |
| maaku | justanotheruser: ben goertzel has written a >1k pages book, in two volumes, called "engineering general intelligence". you can find pdfs online | 12:18 |
| justanotheruser | Yes, I have downloaded vol 2 | 12:19 |
| justanotheruser | in what sense isn't their implementation self reflective | 12:19 |
| maaku | that outlines "CogPrime" which is an abstract AGI design based on the integrative approach -- a bunch of "narrow AI" algorithms working together in concert on a single shared backbone in order to patchwork-style cover all the bases | 12:19 |
| maaku | that is a solid idea | 12:19 |
| maaku | i take some issue with a few of their implementation choices, e.g. PLN instead of a more accurate probabalistic graph update mechanism a la Pearl | 12:20 |
| maaku | or using DeSTIN instead of the much more capable deep learning tools that are coming out of Google/Hinton | 12:21 |
| maaku | but that's not so important | 12:21 |
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| FourFire | ok, trying to figure out open source, PCIe passthrough virtualization software, being more confused... | 12:21 |
| maaku | the big issue with OpenCog (as a proposed implementation of CogPrime) is that all these algorithms are implemented in C++ and Python in a way that is totally opaque | 12:22 |
| FourFire | so far I've rounded it down to kvm, and Xen(server) | 12:22 |
| maaku | to the running mind that is. it can't self-improve | 12:22 |
| lkjhfr | would it be easy for the ai to self-improve if it didn't know c++ or python in the first place? | 12:29 |
| lkjhfr | or is it about hot-plugging, which not many people even think about these days, not understanding the process of linking | 12:33 |
| maaku | lkjhfr: no i don't mean anything like that. the context you are probably missing is that CogPrime involves shared data structure for its knowledge base, which includes an executable specification | 12:38 |
| maaku | to accomplish evolutionary learning of new programs, for example | 12:38 |
| maaku | the way you would close the loop in cogprime is to implement all these algorithms in that language, within the system | 12:39 |
| maaku | so it can use the same concept-learning techniques to learn better implementations of itself | 12:39 |
| justanotheruser | maaku: The program could have its own source code known though? I don't see why you would need to shove the source code into every openCog application | 12:42 |
| maaku | justanotheruser: sure, that's just the boil-the-ocean approach | 12:42 |
| maaku | justanotheruser: we'd have to take an AI all the way to the level of budding computer scientist in order to reliably make any changes to its own source code | 12:45 |
| pasky | we can't self-improve (in that sense) either, is that really an issue? | 12:46 |
| justanotheruser | whats the problem with that? | 12:46 |
| maaku | whereas the alternative is to represent the AI algorithms within its own concept-learning language, so it learns newer algorithms for itself in the same way that it learns better representations and better classifications | 12:46 |
| maaku | you get a feedback loop very early on that way | 12:46 |
| maaku | (and an architecture like GOLUM is an example of how you would do so with relative safety) | 12:47 |
| xentrac | pasky: it's a significant difference: that's the difference between us staying at the same level of intelligence for three million years and slightly-subhuman artificial intelligences turning themselves into extremely-superhuman ones within a matter of years, months, days, or seconds | 12:47 |
| pasky | but that's not that realistic, is it? | 12:48 |
| maaku | days or seconds was not realistic | 12:49 |
| maaku | but the basic idea is | 12:49 |
| FourFire | ok so apparently Nvidia support is shitty for all alternatives | 12:50 |
| maaku | a hard takeoff on the order of months is plausible in a breakout scenario (low probability anyway), years under controlled circumstances | 12:51 |
| xentrac | nobody knows what is realistic | 12:51 |
| xentrac | and my limited experience programming things that do optimization or search is that apparently small improvements can have surprisingly large effects when they affect the base of an exponential function | 12:52 |
| lkjhfr | it doesn't look like that book is free | 12:53 |
| maaku | xentrac: nonsense. it only takes longer because there's a limiter. what would that limiter be? | 12:53 |
| lkjhfr | does this mean that there is a language that in which programs can be represented which ai will already know? | 12:54 |
| maaku | argument from incredibility is not valid. why would it take longer? | 12:54 |
| maaku | (i know it won't happen in seconds because of computational limits, and not days or weeks because of logistical limits, but why not months?) | 12:54 |
| lkjhfr | s/language that in/language in/ | 12:54 |
| maaku | lkjhfr: yes, that is a component of the CogPrime design | 12:55 |
| xentrac | hmm, you seem to be thinking that I think a hard takeoff in months is implausible | 12:55 |
| maaku | it has a built-in programming language called 'combo' -- my own design has a much more expressive VM language, but same principle | 12:55 |
| xentrac | but I was saying the opposite: that a hard takeoff is entirely plausible, and that not only months but even seconds are plausible timescales | 12:55 |
| maaku | xentrac: i thought that's what you said in response to me. i think months is the lower end of plausible but not probable | 12:56 |
| lkjhfr | is that language already designed? how strict is it? | 12:56 |
| maaku | xentrac: eh. you can count the number of cpu/gpu cycles available in 1 day. it's a finite number | 12:56 |
| maaku | and given my familiarity with the types of algorithms involved I highly doubt anything meaningful could be accomplished in that timeframe | 12:57 |
| maaku | i admit that's an argument from gut feeling, but we're talking orders of magnitude difference... | 12:57 |
| xentrac | right. what I can't count is the minimal number of cpu cycles needed to improve an AI algorithm. I am sure your estimate is more informed than mine | 12:57 |
| xentrac | but I think there's an enormous amount of uncertainty | 12:58 |
| maaku | xentrac: for each of the components (e.g. deep learning neural net training, combinatorially complex probabalistic reasoning, etc.) these sorts of things often accomplish single results with hours of work on large clusters of workstations | 13:00 |
| maaku | an AGI self-improvement cycle would involve such work to consider such a change, then equivalent or more work to evaluate changes in various simulated environments | 13:00 |
| maaku | and it will probably consider many options before making a single incremental change, so multiply by some small constant | 13:01 |
| lkjhfr | so... opencog is free, but the book is not | 13:01 |
| maaku | xentrac: add those up and we're already talking about days or a week of effort per cycle | 13:02 |
| maaku | not all improvements will be paradigm shifts, but some will be. we're still talking many weeks, a few months before it surpasses its creators assuming it doesn't break and need to be debugged which is the real most likely outcome | 13:04 |
| lkjhfr | it's almost like linux and minix :) | 13:04 |
| xentrac | yeah, things being broken is always the mots likely outcome :) | 13:04 |
| maaku | so this back of the envelope calculation arrives at a number that is six to seven orders of magnitude more than "seconds" | 13:05 |
| maaku | which is why I don't give much credence to hard takeoffs | 13:05 |
| maaku | that changes as computing advances though (an argument for doing AGI now, not later) | 13:06 |
| xentrac | you could just as easily say that the fact that deep-learning NN training takes hours across a large cluster is an argument that AGI is not yet practical | 13:07 |
| maaku | In 30 years that number will have reduced to seconds. | 13:07 |
| FourFire | ended up giving up, going to try KVM Lubuntu Host, Lubuntu Guest | 13:08 |
| xentrac | you need either much better hardware (your 30 years) or much faster software to get that number down before seconds-scale hard takeoff is possible, agreed | 13:08 |
| lkjhfr | but by then there will be invented new algorithms that everyone will want to embed in theirs ai | 13:08 |
| xentrac | but the much faster software might be possible | 13:08 |
| FourFire | maaku, if you can make an application well optimized then you might be able to reduce the problem to ASICs | 13:09 |
| FourFire | of FPGAs | 13:10 |
| FourFire | current old lithography is only going to get cheaper | 13:10 |
| xentrac | much faster hardware in much less than 30 years is also conceivable but less likely | 13:11 |
| maaku | xentrac: getting a little off topic, but this is the core of what bugs me about MIRI and FAI x-risk activists generally. The argument is made that we should stop work on AGI and instead work on solving the much harder FAI - | 13:12 |
| lkjhfr | http://goertzel.org/EGI_vol1..pdf.zip http://goertzel.org/EGI_vol2..pdf.zip | 13:13 |
| maaku | - but the 30 years spent doing that would mean there's no capacity left for safe engineering | 13:13 |
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| maaku | If you are worried about AGI x-risk, then do what you can to get AGI written -now-, ASAP | 13:13 |
| drethelin | you seem to have completely missed the point | 13:17 |
| xentrac | I understand your argument, and it may be correct | 13:18 |
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| xentrac | it is contingent on hardware improvement being at least a necessary, if not a sufficient, AGI success factor | 13:19 |
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| maaku | drethelin: me? perhaps so | 13:21 |
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| Alcyius | anyone want to watch Mr. Nobody? | 13:23 |
| lkjhfr | fun fact: there are over 5000 links to pdfs in the logs | 13:24 |
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| Alcyius | Psuedo time travel film about the last man to die in a future where everyone is immortal | 13:24 |
| Alcyius | https://rabb.it/r/jy5im1?i=xW9ERLCMhjtY | 13:24 |
| Alcyius | Link if anyone's interested | 13:24 |
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| streety | lkjhfr: what are the most common topics? or domains? | 13:39 |
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| maaku | Alcyius another fun movie is "the man from earth" | 13:41 |
| Alcyius | Has anyone here read Stranger from a Strange Land | 13:42 |
| Alcyius | My mom keeps trying to get me to read it | 13:42 |
| Diablo-D3 | its a very good book | 13:42 |
| Diablo-D3 | I read it when I was 12 | 13:43 |
| lkjhfr | streety, most were posted by kanzure, so i'd guess it would be something about treating and enhancing humans | 13:44 |
| streety | might be interesting to try and extract topics | 13:46 |
| streety | It seems we occasionally focus on particular areas for a while then change focus. | 13:47 |
| maaku | That's a weird book for your mom to push. | 13:51 |
| lkjhfr | streety, i'm not sure it would be about treating and enhancing humans, there is just so many different things | 13:52 |
| streety | yes, the conversation does touch on a wide variety of topics | 13:52 |
| lkjhfr | pdftk could read the titles | 13:53 |
| lkjhfr | something would be needed to grep bare links to make download list for wget | 13:53 |
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| cluckj | stranger in a strange land? | 13:58 |
| maaku | Maybe your mom is less conservative than mine :) | 13:58 |
| lkjhfr | i just launched wget | 13:59 |
| lkjhfr | this will crash the whole internet, i am sure of it | 13:59 |
| Alcyius | maaku, my mom was a pro domme | 13:59 |
| Alcyius | My mom is about as not conservative as you can get | 13:59 |
| maaku | Most of Heinlein's books deal with, uh, non traditional families/relationships. Stranger in a strange land in particular. | 14:00 |
| maaku | Heh, cool. | 14:00 |
| maaku | Oh had to Google what that meant. Your mom must be awesome. | 14:01 |
| lkjhfr | wget won't do, i need something that downloads in parallel | 14:01 |
| cluckj | lol | 14:01 |
| catern | haha | 14:01 |
| catern | you're like that guy from questionable content!! | 14:01 |
| Alcyius | In some ways yes | 14:01 |
| Alcyius | But she's also a con artist and not the best mother | 14:01 |
| cluckj | decent, albeit old, taste in scifi | 14:02 |
| cluckj | that's good at least | 14:02 |
| Alcyius | Also, the movie lineup this year looks great | 14:02 |
| Alcyius | Remakes and sequels to a bunch of classics, some new properties that are looking pretty good | 14:02 |
| maaku | Wget can be configured to do that | 14:03 |
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| cluckj | if you want weird families and relationships nothing can beat octavia butler's xenogenesis | 14:05 |
| Alcyius | I actually | 14:05 |
| Alcyius | Think I have a copy of that | 14:05 |
| TMA | Alcyius: Stranger from a Strange Land is remarkable piece of sci-fi even discounting the relationship matter; it's one of those books that is pleasant to read AND makes you think | 14:05 |
| cluckj | it's aka lilith's brood | 14:05 |
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| lkjhfr | turns out there is less than 5000, around 4700 - there were many duplicates | 14:07 |
| lkjhfr | around 1500 are hosted on diyhplus and heybryan | 14:08 |
| maaku | TMA true of most classic Heinlein | 14:09 |
| maaku | Wouldn't paperbot have the rest? | 14:10 |
| TMA | maaku: yeah. one of the reason my friend said: "I would read a telephone directory if it were written by Heinlein" | 14:14 |
| maaku | Hahaha. And true. | 14:15 |
| cluckj | lol | 14:15 |
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| kanzure | i believe i have read telephone directories that were _not_ written by heinlein. what of it? | 14:23 |
| lkjhfr | who is paperbot? | 14:26 |
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| lkjhfr | 2015-11-30.log:12:07 < chris_99> i think paperbot has been dead for a while? | 14:30 |
| lkjhfr | http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/paperbot/wiley-error.txt | 14:30 |
| lkjhfr | paperbot has 940 pdfs, and those are included in those 1500 from diyhplus | 14:34 |
| kanzure | https://github.com/kanzure/paperbot | 14:35 |
| lkjhfr | ah, so this means that paperbot pulled pdfs from links that didn't lead directly to pdfs | 14:41 |
| lkjhfr | it's still 4700 pdfs then | 14:42 |
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| maaku | kanzure Melbourne telephone directory circa '60s would be a good one to memorize. Its where the CIA pulls their alias names from | 14:51 |
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| drethelin | maaku if that's generally known why wouldn't they change it | 15:04 |
| maaku | I'm sure its different now but they wouldn't burn all the old identities. Was at least the case through the 90's | 15:05 |
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| drethelin | do you really think people are maintaining the same identity for 55 years? | 15:07 |
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| lkjhfr | i am downloading ~1 pdf per second with ~80% success rate | 15:14 |
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| lkjhfr | no, thats 20% error response rate, there are also domain lookup errors and authentication failures | 15:22 |
| lkjhfr | 50% success rate | 15:22 |
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| kanzure | old identities are definitely maintained. useful to have lots of built-up history. | 15:34 |
| kanzure | great now i am suspicious about all the old people i know in melbourne | 15:34 |
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| lkjhfr | http://dunno.sdf-eu.org/titles.txt | 16:25 |
| lkjhfr | this is just pathetic | 16:25 |
| lkjhfr | and this is from 1gb of pdfs | 16:25 |
| lkjhfr | a better idea would be to use sets of words commonly used in materials of given category to categorize it | 16:28 |
| lkjhfr | do statistics of these words and check which category they match best | 16:29 |
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| lkjhfr | "We must incrementally build up the capabilities of intelligent systems, having complete systems at each step of the way and thus automatically ensure that the pieces and their interfaces are valid." | 16:51 |
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| lkjhfr | there is so much different stuff | 16:57 |
| lkjhfr | all kinds of stuff | 16:57 |
| docl | FourFire: the idea that you would need more than a few decades to make a dyson sphere is a persistent myth. you don't actually even need planetary disassembly as a prereq -- you could surround the sun with thin sail-like solar collectors using the mass of a large asteroid. | 17:01 |
| docl | If you stuck to 1.0 AU, a sphere with the density of a thousand sheets of graphene would be the mass of Pallas. | 17:03 |
| Diablo-D3 | well theres another thing | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | you'd spend the first decade manufacturing manufacturing. | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | then you'd build the dyson sphere on this star | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | within another decade | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | and then already have your gear headed towards the next star | 17:06 |
| lkjhfr | an asteroid would be enough to collect the energy, not to store it | 17:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | to only use your dyson sphere building army once | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | is a waste | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | you'd want to build the army here | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | build the first dyson sphere here | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | have the army build two or three more armies | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | and then send them off in opposite directions | 17:08 |
| Diablo-D3 | building dyson spheres, 3-4 every decade | 17:09 |
| Diablo-D3 | and start building larger systems to take stars apart that dont have enough matter around them to build spheres | 17:09 |
| lkjhfr | why haven't i known this channel for so long | 17:09 |
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| lkjhfr | i have this one question i already wanted to ask a day or two ago | 17:10 |
| lkjhfr | has there any research been made towards von neumann molecular machines that wouldn't be restricted by water freezing and boiling temperatures that would be suitable for outer space? | 17:11 |
| Diablo-D3 | research? yes | 17:12 |
| Diablo-D3 | results? not so much | 17:12 |
| Diablo-D3 | nanoscale engineering like that is still in the future | 17:12 |
| Diablo-D3 | and Im not sure if I can realistically say near future, or just future future | 17:12 |
| Diablo-D3 | so Im just goign to go with future future | 17:12 |
| docl | I've been more focused on macroscopic von neumann systems. not that we won't ever have nano versions of that concept, but in theory we can make large scale systems using known tech. | 17:14 |
| docl | one variant of this would be printing everything in place using an "omnivorous" process that can work with a variety of materials. | 17:15 |
| docl | http://www.molecularassembler.com/KSRM/3.14.htm | 17:15 |
| docl | the idea is essentially a large scale mass spectrometer with 3d printing capabilities. | 17:16 |
| docl | it wouldn't be very efficient though -- replication times were estimated at 3 years. everything gets superheated to a plasma in order to separate the elements out, which results in a lot more waste heat than the chemical processes we usually use. | 17:17 |
| lkjhfr | to build stuff from asteroid most useful would be some kind of asteroid eating bacteria | 17:19 |
| lkjhfr | but it couldn't be earth bacteria, because these have very narrow working temperature range | 17:20 |
| docl | you could put a bag around the asteroid so it holds water, bake it a little so it releases moisture, then colonize it with something. maintaining the right temperature would just be a matter of mirrors (also, water itself is something of a thermal battery since it makes ice or steam by absorbing or releasing a lot of energy) | 17:21 |
| docl | there's also a process for extracting nickle using carbon monoxide, the Mond Process. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mond_process | 17:26 |
| docl | it can be used on iron as well. so you could get purified nickle-iron relatively easy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonyl_metallurgy | 17:28 |
| lkjhfr | media often report news regarding water in space, and i just don't understand how important it is, would it really be impossible to have organism that would work without water? is the hydrogen essential somehow? | 17:28 |
| docl | there's water in c-type asteroids. yes you need it for all life as we know it, but it's not that rare and is recycleable. | 17:31 |
| docl | c-type asteroids are essentially asphalt. so they have some rocks, and a lot of hydrocarbons. rocks are full of oxygen. so if you cook them, you get water as part of the result. | 17:32 |
| lkjhfr | but the only life we know is one that we happened to live besides | 17:33 |
| docl | there is a sci-fi series on syfy called The Expanse, which has a lot of political drama about water. the people living in the asteroid belt are somehow dependent on shipments of ice from Saturn. it's one of the less plausible elements of the show, since belters would necessarily live in enclosures with the ability to recycle water. | 17:35 |
| docl | there could hypothetically be life based on other elements. but hydrogen has some unique properties that make it unlikely that it would be totally non-hydrogen-based. look up hydrogen bonds. those are the bonds between hydrogen-containing molecules, for example what makes ice crystals hexagonal. | 17:36 |
| docl | I think I've seen some proposals of NH3 (ammonia) based life, or methane based. those are extremely common forms of hydrogen in the gas giant planet moons. the gas giants themselves are of course largely made of hydrogen (as is the sun, obviously) | 17:38 |
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| docl | most plastics are hydrogen based. there are some exceptions though, such as fluorocarbons (like PTFE, aka teflon). pretty sure they use a hydrocarbon precursor to make that stuff though. | 17:40 |
| lkjhfr | found it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry | 17:42 |
| docl | note that most of those are alternate hydrogen compounds, not non-hydrogen | 17:44 |
| docl | another thing to remember is that hydrogen is very lightweight per atom. so transporting it around is not such a big deal compared to oxygen. | 17:46 |
| docl | there's lots of oxygen in every asteroid, so if you have a big tank of earth-sourced hydrogen your chemical rocket or manufacturing process that needs water can still benefit a lot. 1 atom of oxygen weighs 16 times that of hydrogen, so water is 8 times as much oxygen by mass. | 17:48 |
| docl | I mentioned hydrogen bonds... one of the cool things about those is how much effect they have on phase change properties of chemicals. that is, for example when ice melts or water boils, the energy it soaks up or (releases when the processes are reversed). this holds to a lesser degree with other hydrogen compounds like ammonia. | 17:51 |
| docl | that's why they use ammonia (NH3) in refrigerators, and why water evaporation is used for cooling nuclear plants. | 17:53 |
| docl | despite all that, do we really need water/hydrogen for space based manufacturing? I think probably not, if we are okay with the process being an energy hog. like I said, heat it to plasma, then you can separate it out without chemical bonds getting in the way. the final particle stream can then be directed to a cold target where it will stick. | 17:58 |
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| docl | I wonder what the energy cost is to sort 1 ton of random rock into its constituent elements using a mass spectrometer type mechanism? | 18:26 |
| docl | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust | 18:28 |
| docl | 300 ppm of rubidium, for example, is 300 grams. it sells for $25/gram, so that's $17500 worth. | 18:29 |
| streety | that won't be evenly distributed throughout the crust though | 18:32 |
| streety | the enthalpy of formation would be a good place to start for the energy cost of sorting by mass spec | 18:32 |
| superkuh | And in that other 1 ton of stuff you have lots of "toxic" stuff you have to pay >>17k for proper disposal of. | 18:33 |
| superkuh | Kind of the problem with rare earth mining. | 18:33 |
| docl | If you have purified mercury, thorium, and so on, can you not sell them? | 18:38 |
| superkuh | No one is buying thorium. Even the US DOE is trying to get rid of it's giant stockpile of refined thorium. | 18:41 |
| superkuh | The one or two operating rare earth mines in the US have big problems getting rid of it. It costs them a lot. | 18:42 |
| docl | maybe just mix it into another ton of silica sand in the natural proportions to turn it back into rock? | 18:43 |
| superkuh | Regulations do not work like that. | 18:45 |
| docl | coal is something like $20/ton and yields around 20 GJ/ton. unless we are talking about a stronger chemical bond than CO2, the energy cost for separating out the elements can't be that much higher (without a rather major level of inefficiency being factored in). | 18:46 |
| xentrac | superkuh: oh, that's interesting! | 18:46 |
| docl | so if we have to pay double to turn the toxic component back to rock, it potentially wouldn't be that big of a deal. | 18:46 |
| xentrac | docl: in addition to the raw energy cost, there's also an entropy cost due to the elements being diluted, but it's very small in absolute terms | 18:47 |
| docl | you can also get silica sand for $50/ton, so if you were trying to produce oxygen and silicon, with an energy cost near that of $20 worth of coal, it's possible in theory. note that metallurgical grade silicon sells for $2/kg, so you could turn out $1000 worth even if it isn't ultra-pure. | 18:53 |
| Diablo-D3 | so.... | 18:53 |
| Diablo-D3 | you're making glass? | 18:53 |
| docl | nah, silicon is a metal | 18:54 |
| Diablo-D3 | yeah but you said silicon and oxygen | 18:54 |
| docl | glass is silicon dioxide and such | 18:54 |
| docl | pull the oxygen out and you get the metal | 18:54 |
| docl | so you get two products. maybe just release the oxygen, or maybe trap it in a tank and sell it. | 18:55 |
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| docl | (silica sand is silicon dioxide as well) | 18:56 |
| docl | given the above, our tech for refining materials must really suck. like, we must be getting only 2% efficiency when all is said and done. | 19:01 |
| docl | altogether, there are 184 grams of rare earth elements in a given ton of earth (184 ppm). http://geology.com/usgs/ree-geology/ | 19:06 |
| AdrianG | pretty good amount | 19:07 |
| AdrianG | probably much higher proportion in trash dumps. | 19:07 |
| superkuh | Some of the Thorium molten salt reactor talks have a good explanation of the economics of this and why it is not feasible in the current regulatory environment. | 19:08 |
| AdrianG | thorium? | 19:09 |
| maaku | An element that can be fissioned, is way more abundant than Uranium, requires less processing, makes less radioactive waste, but unfortunately doesn't make weapons grade material as a side product | 19:11 |
| superkuh | https://t.co/DpXsRQWal9 - Video of the SpaceX first stage rocket landing back on the drone ship. It landed... but one of the legs didn't lock. So it tipped after landing then exploded. | 19:11 |
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| docl | a lot of rees seem to sell for less than a dollar per gram on the commodities markets, some more (scandium $15/g for example). if the average is around $1/g, 184 grams is only $184. that is a lot less valuable than the silicon or rubidium. | 19:27 |
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| AdrianG | maaku: i know what thorium is. why cant molten reactors be approved? | 19:41 |
| maaku | I don't think the molten reactors specifically are the problem | 19:42 |
| docl | costs for disposal of nuclear waste run around 200,000 euros per cubic meter. thorium is denser than water, so 12 grams is less than 12 cubic centimeters. 12 cubic centimeters of waste costs 24 eurocents to dispose of. | 19:42 |
| docl | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants#Waste_disposal_costs | 19:42 |
| AdrianG | nuclear "waste"...what nonsense. | 19:43 |
| AdrianG | we just need fast neutron nukes. | 19:44 |
| docl | fast neutrons scare people for some reason. | 19:48 |
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| docl | one possible reason mass spec type omnivorous refining would be opposed is that it makes it too easy to enrich fissile uranium. there are around 10 ppb fissile uranium in granite, since it's 1.6 ppm uranium which is 0.7% u-235. | 20:02 |
| docl | assuming you need to burn 1 ton of coal per ton of refining, at $20/ton, that would cost $2000 for 10 grams worth. luckily, it is probably not possible to get anywhere near that efficient. | 20:03 |
| docl | *20,000 | 20:03 |
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| AdrianG | docl: fast neutrons scare people because you can make bombs with those reactors. | 20:12 |
| docl | yup | 20:15 |
| docl | now that you've brought up the topic of nuclear physics, I'm actually a little worried that talk of general-purpose element refining carries x-risk. | 20:18 |
| docl | maybe it's the type of thing that should only be developed secretly by well-vetted teams :/ | 20:19 |
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| AdrianG | too late, its out of the bag. | 20:33 |
| AdrianG | israel built hundreds of nuclear bombs in a single 5-6 story building? | 20:33 |
| AdrianG | im quite amazed actually iran was using centrifuges. sounds almost ancient. | 20:34 |
| maaku | Iraq was using calutrons | 20:37 |
| maaku | Go figure | 20:38 |
| maaku | AdrianG what do you mean? Israel has no bombs! | 20:38 |
| AdrianG | right, and im sure vanunu wasnt working on anything like that either | 20:48 |
| AdrianG | must've been tried for taking selfies at work | 20:48 |
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| kanzure | .title https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10921773 | 22:16 |
| yoleaux | WebTorrent – BitTorrent over WebRTC | Hacker News | 22:16 |
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| kanzure | grr why isn't simonster on irc this is like the one time i want to message him | 22:23 |
| kanzure | "Deep neural networks rival the representation of primate inferior temporal cortex for core visual object representation" http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003963 (2014) | 22:25 |
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| kanzure | "the main person that Satoshi wanted to hand this off to, if I understand correctly, was Hal Finnel. but he got ALS. and died." | 22:44 |
| kanzure | welp so much for that plan | 22:44 |
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| AdrianG | very unfortunate. | 22:48 |
| AdrianG | we'd be better off with Hal. | 22:48 |
| AdrianG | http://gizmodo.com/an-ai-program-in-japan-just-passed-a-college-entrance-e-1742758286 | 23:10 |
| pompolic | >gawker | 23:18 |
| lkjhfr | i think i know why that water and hydrogen is part of all life: it's needed for competition, it's allowing each cell to eat another one and to rebuild itself | 23:20 |
| lkjhfr | it's not worth looking for | 23:20 |
| kanzure | given sufficiently large random memory initialized with random opcodes, sequences of self-replication tend to be found with high probability, independent of details like single-protonated atoms or whatever. | 23:23 |
| kanzure | see http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/ai/The%20evolution%20of%20self-replicating%20computer%20organisms%20-%20A.%20N.%20Pargellis.pdf | 23:24 |
| pompolic | how high? | 23:26 |
| * pompolic reads | 23:26 | |
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| maaku | AdrianG: we'd be better off with the system creator not "handing off" to anyone | 23:37 |
| -!- ArturShaik [~ArturShai@212.97.2.228] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] | 23:39 | |
| kanzure | maaku: that sounds an awful lot like a vote for the dead guy :-) | 23:45 |
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| --- Log closed Mon Jan 18 00:00:08 2016 | ||
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