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[~cbeams@chello084114181075.1.15.vie.surfer.at] has quit [Changing host] 07:01 -!- cbeams [~cbeams@unaffiliated/cbeams] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:16 -!- rdponticelli [~quassel@gateway/tor-sasl/rdponticelli] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:20 -!- jokosh [~sark@37-252-108-40.ip.skylogicnet.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:24 < tromp> quiz: how long does it take on avg for a newly announced tx to find its way into a block? A: 5min B: 15min C: neither 07:30 < justanotheruser> tromp: its probably not *exactly* either of thtose values 07:30 < Eliel> if you insist on putting my answer with the quiz parameters, then C. But look here for the real answer https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address= 07:31 < justanotheruser> Eliel: that implies that blockchain.info has some way of knowing exactly when a tx was announced 07:31 < justanotheruser> I suppose that if it is working it probably isn't *that* far off 07:31 < tromp> http://gendal.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/a-simple-explanation-of-bitcoin-sidechains/ says 5 min, which struck me as way off 07:31 < Eliel> justanotheruser: it's close enough 07:32 < justanotheruser> tromp: well thats just silly 07:33 < justanotheruser> ignoring not being confirmed into a block and no difficulty changes, it is 10 min on average 07:33 -!- DougieBot5000 [~DougieBot@unaffiliated/dougiebot5000] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:34 < Eliel> justanotheruser: the average in practise seems to have been hovering between 6 and 8 minutes lately. 07:34 < justanotheruser> Eliel: what has the average block time been hovering at? 07:35 < Eliel> no graph of that, unfortunately. 07:35 < justanotheruser> doesn't it make senses that the avg conf time should be 10 minutes though? 07:35 < tromp> its on avg X/2 min till the next solved block, at which point miners include the new tx, and then another X to solve that block 07:35 < justanotheruser> maybe they count tx they haven't seen yet as 0min 07:35 < tromp> where X is presumed to be 10min 07:35 < justanotheruser> tromp: no, it is 10min on average until the next block is solved 07:36 < tromp> ah, good point 07:36 < tromp> so, then the answer is 20min? 07:37 -!- zooko [~user@c-67-190-86-140.hsd1.co.comcast.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:37 < justanotheruser> It should be 10min I think. That seems to be a bit of a paradox though 07:38 < justanotheruser> At every moment you are 10min from the next block on average, however, blocks on average are 10min apart and not all tx for the next block come 0min after the last black 07:39 < justanotheruser> s/paradox/confusing problem for me/ 07:40 -!- eristisk [~eristisk@gateway/tor-sasl/eristisk] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 07:41 -!- dgenr8 [~dgenr8@unaffiliated/dgenr8] has quit [Read error: Connection reset by peer] 07:41 -!- eristisk [~eristisk@gateway/tor-sasl/eristisk] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:42 -!- dgenr8 [~dgenr8@unaffiliated/dgenr8] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:42 -!- hashtag_ [~hashtag@CPE-69-23-221-39.wi.res.rr.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:47 < dgenr8> justanotheruser: they don't all have to take 10 min to make that the average; often times they wait longer. 07:47 < dgenr8> not only is the exponential ditribution memoryless, it is the unique distribution with this property 07:57 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: I understand it is an average, I still don't understand what the average confirm time is 07:59 < justanotheruser> On one hand, the the block time is 10 minutes on average and tx generation is probably approximately a uniform distribution, therefore there should be an approximately equal number of transactions each minute that a block isn't found meaning an average of 5 minutes. 07:59 < justanotheruser> However, when I generate a transaction, it is 10 minutes until the next block arrives on average, not 5 minutes. 08:00 -!- AaronvanW [~ewout@ip51cd0972.adsl-surfen.hetnet.nl] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 08:01 < justanotheruser> There's clearly something I'm missing. 08:02 < helo> negativity bias? 08:02 < dgenr8> tx generation is a poisson process itself (totally different from tx propagation which I find to be close to lognormal) 08:03 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: generation? It is probably a normal process o_O 08:04 < helo> or maybe miners don't continuously recreate their blocks while searching for a solution, so most transactions broadcast during the mining of block X make it into block X+1 08:04 < justanotheruser> helo: I am working on the assumption that they do 08:04 < justanotheruser> maybe I should ask in #math 08:05 < dgenr8> how could average time to inclusion be any different from average time to next block? nobody knows whether you xmitted a tx, or just said "now!" 08:06 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: the fact that all the transactions for block 10000001 aren't broadcasted at the same time as block 10000000 is proof that the average time to inclusion is smaller than the average time to next block 08:07 < kanzure> huh? "inclusion" means what here 08:08 < dgenr8> justanotheruser: that assumes block 1 comes exactly 10 min after block 0 08:08 < justanotheruser> kanzure: getting the first confirmation 08:08 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: does it? 08:08 < justanotheruser> I don't see how it does 08:09 < dgenr8> you're dividing by 10 to get the average 08:09 < justanotheruser> am I? 08:09 < justanotheruser> I'm not trying to find an average. 08:09 < justanotheruser> At least right now 08:09 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 08:10 -!- pen [~linker@113.161.87.238] has quit [Ping timeout: 255 seconds] 08:11 < dgenr8> sorry, you're dividing by n, expecting to get 10, but that does not mean they all have to be 10 08:11 < justanotheruser> I don't see what part of my statement assumes all blocks are 10 minutes 08:11 < dgenr8> the trial is repeated many times 08:12 < justanotheruser> the trial is repeated many times and every time, the difference in time between the blocks should be greater than the time the average tx in that block took to get confirmed because not all tx in block 1 were made immediatly as block 0 was broadcasted. 08:14 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has left #bitcoin-wizards [] 08:18 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 08:19 -!- fanquake [~anonymous@unaffiliated/fanquake] has quit [Quit: fanquake] 08:20 < dgenr8> that is true, the average confirm time for a tx in a block is inter-block-time / 2. but the global average time to inclusion is 10 min (also assumes constant hash power, not just constant difficulty) 08:21 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: How do you define global average time? 08:22 < dgenr8> expected time from any point until next block (which doesn't depend on whether I pressed some send button or not) 08:23 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: That doesn't make sense to me. How can the average tx take 5 minutes to get into a block, while a tx I make will take 10 minutes on average 08:24 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 258 seconds] 08:26 < justanotheruser> Ignoring "I" make 08:26 < justanotheruser> How can the average tx take 5 minutes when any tx I select should have been 10 minutes from confirmation on average 08:28 -!- EasyAt [~EasyAt@unaffiliated/easyat] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 08:28 < dgenr8> the first is an average over the txes in just 1 block. Even that is 10 min if you pick the block randomly (and subject to the other assumptions we are making) 08:30 < dgenr8> you can't say "the average takes 5 min". You can say the average inside a block is inter-block-time / 2 08:33 < justanotheruser> the average over the txes in just 1 block should be less than the difference in the blocks 08:35 < tromp> can we assume that txs in block x were announced between blocks x-2 and x-1? 08:36 < kanzure> no 08:37 < wumpus> tromp: not in bitcoin, transaction can linger in the mempool for ages until they're included in a block 08:39 < justanotheruser> wumpus: for this problem we are assuming all tx get confirmed in the next block 08:39 < tromp> ok. but if we do assume that, then on avg, from tx announcement to 1st confirm is twice avg block interval, right? 08:40 < justanotheruser> tromp: maybe, but on average at any moment of time the next block should be 10 minutes away 08:41 < tromp> yes. just like when flipping coins forever, you always expect 2 flips to the next head 08:42 -!- pen [~linker@118.68.194.143] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 08:52 -!- andytoshi [~andytoshi@unaffiliated/andytoshi] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 08:52 -!- andy-logbot [~bitcoin--@wpsoftware.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 244 seconds] 08:57 -!- cbeams [~cbeams@unaffiliated/cbeams] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 09:10 -!- adam3us [~Adium@c31-67.i07-8.onvol.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:17 -!- eristisk [~eristisk@gateway/tor-sasl/eristisk] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 09:20 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:23 -!- Nomos7 [~textual@pool-71-163-233-84.washdc.east.verizon.net] has quit [Quit: My MacBook Pro has gone to sleep. ZZZzzz…] 09:24 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 09:28 -!- napedia [~napedia@unaffiliated/napedia] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:33 -!- porqupine [~t@72.92.159.52] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:35 -!- Adlai [~Adlai@gateway/tor-sasl/adlai] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 09:36 -!- Adlai [~Adlai@gateway/tor-sasl/adlai] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:36 -!- porqupine [~t@72.92.159.52] has left #bitcoin-wizards [] 09:50 -!- mkarrer_ [~mkarrer@93.Red-83-40-234.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 09:52 -!- mkarrer [~mkarrer@100.Red-83-40-235.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 265 seconds] 09:54 -!- jedunnigan [~jedunniga@us2x.mullvad.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:00 -!- zooko [~user@c-67-190-86-140.hsd1.co.comcast.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 244 seconds] 10:04 -!- mkarrer [~mkarrer@135.Red-83-60-151.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:05 -!- lizka [~liz@li59-64.members.linode.com] has quit [Quit: Leaving] 10:06 < jtimon> how will you enforce the transaction to be included in the next block? 10:06 -!- mkarrer_ [~mkarrer@93.Red-83-40-234.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 10:08 -!- jisno [~jiss@li59-64.members.linode.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:09 < justanotheruser> jtimon: we aren't. It is a theoretical question based on incorrect assumptions 10:13 -!- wiretapped [~wiretappe@gateway/tor-sasl/wiretapped] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 10:13 -!- damethos [~damethos@unaffiliated/damethos] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:13 -!- wiretapped [~wiretappe@gateway/tor-sasl/wiretapped] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:16 -!- AaronvanW [~ewout@ip51cd0972.adsl-surfen.hetnet.nl] has quit [Ping timeout: 265 seconds] 10:17 -!- andytoshi [803e1028@gateway/web/freenode/ip.128.62.16.40] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:19 -!- andytoshi [803e1028@gateway/web/freenode/ip.128.62.16.40] has quit [Client Quit] 10:20 -!- llllllllll [~lllllllll@37-251-2-42.FTTH.ispfabriek.nl] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:23 < heath> gavinandresen: i haven't used yard in awhile 10:23 < heath> wrong channel 10:25 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:31 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 258 seconds] 10:36 -!- david_ [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:37 -!- Nomos7 [~textual@pool-71-163-233-84.washdc.east.verizon.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:37 -!- AaronvanW [~ewout@ip51cd0972.adsl-surfen.hetnet.nl] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:44 -!- david_ [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has left #bitcoin-wizards ["Leaving"] 10:47 -!- andytoshi [~andytoshi@wpsoftware.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:47 -!- andytoshi [~andytoshi@wpsoftware.net] has quit [Changing host] 10:47 -!- andytoshi [~andytoshi@unaffiliated/andytoshi] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:50 < jgarzik> justanotheruser, jtimon: It is an interesting question to examine, from the standpoint of decoupling transaction selection from miners 10:50 < jgarzik> Also a dangerous question to examine ;p 10:51 < justanotheruser> I will probably ask this math phd I know the answer. It probably could be solved with basic probability knowledge, but I can't figure it out. Probably something involving join poisson and uniform RVs 10:52 < justanotheruser> *joint 10:53 < jgarzik> Fundamentally it visits the same areas as synchronized mempools and such... coming to a consensus on what you should be coming to a consensus on. 10:53 < jgarzik> and plenty of dangers and edge cases already know from poor mempool proposals 10:54 < jgarzik> *known 10:54 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 10:54 < justanotheruser> this isn't really a proposal, it is just a tricky math question 10:57 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has left #bitcoin-wizards [] 10:58 -!- jaekwon [~omni@75-101-96-71.dsl.static.fusionbroadband.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:03 -!- zwischenzug [~zwischenz@33.Red-79-158-209.staticIP.rima-tde.net] has quit [Read error: Connection reset by peer] 11:05 -!- zwischenzug [~zwischenz@33.Red-79-158-209.staticIP.rima-tde.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:08 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:09 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has left #bitcoin-wizards [] 11:10 -!- justanotheruser [~Justan@unaffiliated/justanotheruser] has quit [Ping timeout: 244 seconds] 11:16 < tromp> jgarzik: you can find my cuckoo paper, as i submitted it last night, at https://github.com/tromp/cuckoo/blob/master/cuckoo.pdf?raw=true 11:19 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:20 -!- coke_face is now known as AdrianG 11:21 -!- crowex [~crowex@host-78-147-106-214.as13285.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:21 < nsh> .wik Erd ̋os-R ́enyi model 11:21 < yoleaux> "In graph theory, the Erdős–Rényi model is either of two closely related models for generating random graphs, including one that sets an edge between each pair of nodes with equal probability, independently of the other edges." — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s%E2%80%93R%C3%A9nyi_model 11:21 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has left #bitcoin-wizards [] 11:21 < kanzure> tromp: i was reading that yesterday actually.. 11:22 < kanzure> i suppose i should have noted the date 11:24 -!- jaekwon [~omni@75-101-96-71.dsl.static.fusionbroadband.com] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 11:33 -!- Dizzle [~diesel@70.114.207.41] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:35 -!- davidlatapie [~david__@m83-191-176-91.cust.tele2.ee] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:42 -!- justanotheruser [~Justan@unaffiliated/justanotheruser] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:42 -!- heath [~ybit@unaffiliated/ybit] has quit [Ping timeout: 250 seconds] 11:48 -!- justanotheruser [~Justan@unaffiliated/justanotheruser] has quit [Ping timeout: 250 seconds] 11:48 -!- damethos [~damethos@unaffiliated/damethos] has quit [Quit: Bye] 11:49 -!- justanotheruser [~Justan@unaffiliated/justanotheruser] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:49 -!- grandmaster is now known as dansmith_btc 11:50 -!- zooko [~user@67-6-128-167.hlrn.qwest.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:54 -!- cbeams [~cbeams@unaffiliated/cbeams] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 11:54 < jgarzik> tromp, cool 11:54 * jgarzik makes a note and heads out 11:54 -!- NewLiberty [~NewLibert@2602:304:cff8:1580:c56b:1dd3:2f98:2bef] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 12:02 -!- heath [~ybit@131.252.130.248] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 12:03 -!- Nomos7 [~textual@pool-71-163-233-84.washdc.east.verizon.net] has quit [Quit: My MacBook Pro has gone to sleep. 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quit [Ping timeout: 245 seconds] 14:09 < |n|> hey 14:09 -!- KingCoin [~KingCoin@unaffiliated/kingcoin] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:09 < |n|> does someone know about any theory on bitcoin 14:10 < |n|> not cryptography 14:10 < helo> can't say, i've never been on bitcoin before 14:10 < |n|> more cypherpunk/philosophy 14:11 -!- wizkid057 [wk@unaffiliated/wizkid057] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 14:12 < kgk> you could read some of Nick Szabo's early work on crypto-currency back in the 90's 14:13 < kgk> it's interesting to gain some perspective from the ideas back then and how it led to bitcoin today 14:14 < |n|> yea i just wanted to say 14:14 < |n|> something like szabo 14:14 < |n|> only newer 14:15 < |n|> if there is anything going on 14:17 < andytoshi> |n|: there is probably some cool stuff in http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/bitcoin/ ... also some discussion in https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/alts.pdf 14:17 < yoleaux> 25 Oct 2014 22:03Z andytoshi: new log layout on https://botbot.me/freenode/bitcoin-wizards/ is kinda neat (with infinite scroll) but linkable anchors to lines is pretty essential 14:17 < yoleaux> 26 Oct 2014 22:29Z andytoshi: if your website down? 14:18 < andytoshi> nsh: hey, my website has been down (and with it my screen session) for most of the last 4 days 14:18 * nsh nods 14:18 < andytoshi> we had some network hardware failures and i was trying to rebuild it through family members by telephone, not fun :) 14:18 < nsh> :( 14:18 -!- KingCoin_ [~KingCoin@unaffiliated/kingcoin] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:18 < andytoshi> plus there were several power outages 14:18 -!- KingCoin [~KingCoin@unaffiliated/kingcoin] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 14:18 -!- KingCoin_ is now known as KingCoin 14:19 < |n|> thx 14:21 -!- andy-logbot [~bitcoin--@wpsoftware.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:21 * andy-logbot is logging 14:24 -!- woah [~woah@75-101-111-82.dedicated.static.sonic.net] has quit [Quit: My MacBook Pro has gone to sleep. ZZZzzz…] 14:27 -!- Dizzle__ [~diesel@70.114.207.41] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:29 -!- Dizzle [~diesel@70.114.207.41] has quit [Disconnected by services] 14:29 -!- Dizzle__ is now known as Dizzle 14:29 -!- Guyver2 [~Guyver2@guyver2.xs4all.nl] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 14:32 -!- Aquent is now known as Aquent1 14:36 < kanzure> nsh: http://gnusha.org/bitcoin-wizards/ 14:36 < kanzure> i also have earlier logs but haven't split them up or uploaded them 14:37 < kanzure> and also there's no linkable lines. so in conclusion this solves exactly none of your requirements. 14:37 * nsh nods 14:37 < nsh> i'll have another go at cleaning up sbp's script for loggy 14:41 -!- woah [~woah@75-101-111-82.dedicated.static.sonic.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:44 -!- Burrito [~Burrito@unaffiliated/burrito] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 14:45 -!- rdponticelli [~quassel@gateway/tor-sasl/rdponticelli] has left #bitcoin-wizards ["http://quassel-irc.org - Chat comfortably. 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