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07:24 < tromp> quiz: how long does it take on avg for a newly announced tx to find its way into a block? A: 5min B: 15min C: neither
07:30 < justanotheruser> tromp: its probably not *exactly* either of thtose values
07:30 < Eliel> if you insist on putting my answer with the quiz parameters, then C. But look here for the real answer https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time?showDataPoints=false&timespan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
07:31 < justanotheruser> Eliel: that implies that blockchain.info has some way of knowing exactly when a tx was announced
07:31 < justanotheruser> I suppose that if it is working it probably isn't *that* far off
07:31 < tromp> http://gendal.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/a-simple-explanation-of-bitcoin-sidechains/ says 5 min, which struck me as way off
07:31 < Eliel> justanotheruser: it's close enough
07:32 < justanotheruser> tromp: well thats just silly
07:33 < justanotheruser> ignoring not being confirmed into a block and no difficulty changes, it is 10 min on average
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07:34 < Eliel> justanotheruser: the average in practise seems to have been hovering between 6 and 8 minutes lately.
07:34 < justanotheruser> Eliel: what has the average block time been hovering at?
07:35 < Eliel> no graph of that, unfortunately.
07:35 < justanotheruser> doesn't it make senses that the avg conf time should be 10 minutes though?
07:35 < tromp> its on avg X/2 min till the next solved block, at which point miners include the new tx, and then another X to solve that block
07:35 < justanotheruser> maybe they count tx they haven't seen yet as 0min
07:35 < tromp> where X is presumed to be 10min
07:35 < justanotheruser> tromp: no, it is 10min on average until the next block is solved
07:36 < tromp> ah, good point
07:36 < tromp> so, then the answer is 20min?
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07:37 < justanotheruser> It should be 10min I think. That seems to be a bit of a paradox though
07:38 < justanotheruser> At every moment you are 10min from the next block on average, however, blocks on average are 10min apart and not all tx for the next block come 0min after the last black
07:39 < justanotheruser> s/paradox/confusing problem for me/
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07:47 < dgenr8> justanotheruser: they don't all have to take 10 min to make that the average; often times they wait longer.
07:47 < dgenr8> not only is the exponential ditribution memoryless, it is the unique distribution with this property
07:57 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: I understand it is an average, I still don't understand what the average confirm time is
07:59 < justanotheruser> On one hand, the the block time is 10 minutes on average and tx generation is probably approximately a uniform distribution, therefore there should be an approximately equal number of transactions each minute that a block isn't found meaning an average of 5 minutes.
07:59 < justanotheruser> However, when I generate a transaction, it is 10 minutes until the next block arrives on average, not 5 minutes.
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08:01 < justanotheruser>  There's clearly something I'm missing.
08:02 < helo> negativity bias?
08:02 < dgenr8> tx generation is a poisson process itself (totally different from tx propagation which I find to be close to lognormal)
08:03 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: generation? It is probably a normal process o_O
08:04 < helo> or maybe miners don't continuously recreate their blocks while searching for a solution, so most transactions broadcast during the mining of block X make it into block X+1
08:04 < justanotheruser> helo: I am working on the assumption that they do
08:04 < justanotheruser> maybe I should ask in #math
08:05 < dgenr8> how could average time to inclusion be any different from average time to next block?  nobody knows whether you xmitted a tx, or just said "now!"
08:06 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: the fact that all the transactions for block 10000001 aren't broadcasted at the same time as block 10000000 is proof that the average time to inclusion is smaller than the average time to next block
08:07 < kanzure> huh? "inclusion" means what here
08:08 < dgenr8> justanotheruser: that assumes block 1 comes exactly 10 min after block 0
08:08 < justanotheruser> kanzure: getting the first confirmation
08:08 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: does it?
08:08 < justanotheruser> I don't see how it does
08:09 < dgenr8> you're dividing by 10 to get the average
08:09 < justanotheruser> am I?
08:09 < justanotheruser> I'm not trying to find an average.
08:09 < justanotheruser> At least right now
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08:11 < dgenr8> sorry, you're dividing by n, expecting to get 10, but that does not mean they all have to be 10
08:11 < justanotheruser> I don't see what part of my statement assumes all blocks are 10 minutes
08:11 < dgenr8> the trial is repeated many times
08:12 < justanotheruser> the trial is repeated many times and every time, the difference in time between the blocks should be greater than the time the average tx in that block took to get confirmed because not all tx in block 1 were made immediatly as block 0 was broadcasted.
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08:20 < dgenr8> that is true, the average confirm time for a tx in a block is inter-block-time / 2.  but the global average time to inclusion is 10 min (also assumes constant hash power, not just constant difficulty)
08:21 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: How do you define global average time?
08:22 < dgenr8> expected time from any point until next block (which doesn't depend on whether I pressed some send button or not)
08:23 < justanotheruser> dgenr8: That doesn't make sense to me. How can the average tx take 5 minutes to get into a block, while a tx I make will take 10 minutes on average
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08:26 < justanotheruser> Ignoring "I" make
08:26 < justanotheruser> How can the average tx take 5 minutes when any tx I select should have been 10 minutes from confirmation on average
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08:28 < dgenr8> the first is an average over the txes in just 1 block.  Even that is 10 min if you pick the block randomly (and subject to the other assumptions we are making)
08:30 < dgenr8> you can't say "the average takes 5 min".  You can say the average inside a block is inter-block-time / 2
08:33 < justanotheruser> the average over the txes in just 1 block should be less than the difference in the blocks
08:35 < tromp> can we assume that txs in block x were announced between blocks x-2 and x-1?
08:36 < kanzure> no
08:37 < wumpus> tromp: not in bitcoin, transaction can linger in the mempool for ages until they're included in a block
08:39 < justanotheruser> wumpus: for this problem we are assuming all tx get confirmed in the next block
08:39 < tromp> ok. but if we do assume that, then on avg, from tx announcement to 1st confirm is twice avg block interval, right?
08:40 < justanotheruser> tromp: maybe, but on average at any moment of time the next block should be 10 minutes away
08:41 < tromp> yes. just like when flipping coins forever, you always expect 2 flips to the next head
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10:06 < jtimon> how will you enforce the transaction to be included in the next block?
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10:09 < justanotheruser> jtimon: we aren't. It is a theoretical question based on incorrect assumptions
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10:23 < heath> gavinandresen: i haven't used yard in awhile
10:23 < heath> wrong channel
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10:50 < jgarzik> justanotheruser, jtimon: It is an interesting question to examine, from the standpoint of decoupling transaction selection from miners
10:50 < jgarzik> Also a dangerous question to examine ;p
10:51 < justanotheruser> I will probably ask this math phd I know the answer. It probably could be solved with basic probability knowledge, but I can't figure it out. Probably something involving join poisson and uniform RVs
10:52 < justanotheruser> *joint
10:53 < jgarzik> Fundamentally it visits the same areas as synchronized mempools and such...  coming to a consensus on what you should be coming to a consensus on.
10:53 < jgarzik> and plenty of dangers and edge cases already know from poor mempool proposals
10:54 < jgarzik> *known
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10:54 < justanotheruser> this isn't really a proposal, it is just a tricky math question
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11:16 < tromp> jgarzik: you can find my cuckoo paper, as i submitted it last night, at https://github.com/tromp/cuckoo/blob/master/cuckoo.pdf?raw=true
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11:21 < nsh> .wik Erd ̋os-R ́enyi model
11:21 < yoleaux> "In graph theory, the Erdős–Rényi model is either of two closely related models for generating random graphs, including one that sets an edge between each pair of nodes with equal probability, independently of the other edges." — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s%E2%80%93R%C3%A9nyi_model
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11:21 < kanzure> tromp: i was reading that yesterday actually..
11:22 < kanzure> i suppose i should have noted the date
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11:54 < jgarzik> tromp, cool
11:54  * jgarzik makes a note and heads out
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14:09 < |n|> hey
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14:09 < |n|> does someone know about any theory on bitcoin
14:10 < |n|> not cryptography
14:10 < helo> can't say, i've never been on bitcoin before
14:10 < |n|> more cypherpunk/philosophy
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14:12 < kgk> you could read some of Nick Szabo's early work on crypto-currency back in the 90's
14:13 < kgk> it's interesting to gain some perspective from the ideas back then and how it led to bitcoin today
14:14 < |n|> yea i just wanted to say
14:14 < |n|> something like szabo
14:14 < |n|> only newer
14:15 < |n|> if there is anything going on
14:17 < andytoshi> |n|: there is probably some cool stuff in http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/bitcoin/ ... also some discussion in https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/alts.pdf
14:17 < yoleaux> 25 Oct 2014 22:03Z <nsh> andytoshi: new log layout on https://botbot.me/freenode/bitcoin-wizards/ is kinda neat (with infinite scroll) but linkable anchors to lines is pretty essential
14:17 < yoleaux> 26 Oct 2014 22:29Z <nsh> andytoshi: if your website down?
14:18 < andytoshi> nsh: hey, my website has been down (and with it my screen session) for most of the last 4 days
14:18  * nsh nods
14:18 < andytoshi> we had some network hardware failures and i was trying to rebuild it through family members by telephone, not fun :)
14:18 < nsh> :(
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14:18 < andytoshi> plus there were several power outages
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14:19 < |n|> thx
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14:21  * andy-logbot is logging
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14:36 < kanzure> nsh: http://gnusha.org/bitcoin-wizards/
14:36 < kanzure> i also have earlier logs but haven't split them up or uploaded them
14:37 < kanzure> and also there's no linkable lines. so in conclusion this solves exactly none of your requirements.
14:37  * nsh nods
14:37 < nsh> i'll have another go at cleaning up sbp's script for loggy
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--- Log closed Tue Oct 28 00:00:32 2014