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[Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 05:24 -!- GAit [~GAit@2-230-161-158.ip202.fastwebnet.it] has quit [Quit: Leaving.] 05:29 < Taek> https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election 05:29 < Taek> the sum of these bets is substantially more than 200 cents 05:30 -!- wallet42 [~wallet42@nz112l16.bb11352.ctm.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 05:31 -!- matsjj [~matsjj@p5B209D9C.dip0.t-ipconnect.de] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 05:34 < aj> Taek: you can buy the top 11 "no" shares for $9.43 for a guaranteed pay off of $10... only about 6% ROI though 05:35 -!- atgreen [~green@CPE687f74122463-CM00fc8d24cab0.cpe.net.cable.rogers.com] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 05:36 -!- matsjj [~matsjj@p5B209D9C.dip0.t-ipconnect.de] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 05:36 < Taek> Was poking around because I've been reading this: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~kroll/papers/weis14_prediction.pdf 05:37 < Taek> one of the mechanisms discussed is the ability to buy 1 share of each result for $1 05:37 < Taek> each 'yes' answer, rather 05:37 -!- wallet42 [~wallet42@nz112l16.bb11352.ctm.net] has quit [Quit: Leaving.] 05:38 < Taek> that would make arbitrage of over-confident markets extremely easy 05:38 < Taek> similarly, you can sell 1 'yes' share of each result for $1, which makes arbitrage of under-confident markets equivalently easy 05:40 -!- dEBRUYNE [~dEBRUYNE@56-197-ftth.onsbrabantnet.nl] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 05:40 < aj> if you sold 11 "yes" shares, you'd only be risking $1 (in return for $1.57 i guess), but afaics you'd have to lock up $11 to actually do it, which would be a pita 05:43 < Taek> for historical purposes: http://imgur.com/06DowRI 05:44 -!- GAit [~GAit@2-225-115-92.ip175.fastwebnet.it] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 05:52 < Taek> Is it safe to say that censorship-resistance is a prerequisite for decentralization? 05:53 < Taek> In the case of Bitcoin, invalid blocks are actively censored by the entire network 05:54 < Taek> though I don't think that helps answer the original question 06:05 -!- GAit [~GAit@2-225-115-92.ip175.fastwebnet.it] has quit [Quit: Leaving.] 06:12 -!- kgk [~kgk@173-167-115-138-sfba.hfc.comcastbusiness.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:12 < aj> Taek: i think you could be decentralised without being censorship resistant. take SMTP but then have NSA log all unencrypted connections, and block connections from anyone unpopular eg 06:17 -!- kgk [~kgk@173-167-115-138-sfba.hfc.comcastbusiness.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 06:18 < Taek> aj: got cutoff after 'unpopular eg' - but I think I agree with what you are saying 06:19 < kanzure> "invalid blocks" don't get in, but "valid blocks that don't win" also don't get in; there was a proposal floating around that all winning blocks should include a hash of some of the competing blocks or something. 06:19 < kanzure> or er... was it a hash of an invalid block. hm. 06:20 < Taek> there have been at least a few proposals involving including the hashes of non-winning blocks, I believe Ethereum uses this to some extent 06:21 < kanzure> was looking for papers yesterday re: stock markets where the orders and trading are based on probability distributions of preferences. same question for auction houses and auction games. didn't find anything interesting but also didn't look very hard. 06:21 -!- metamarc [~cypher@97.95.172.50] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:21 -!- metamarc [~cypher@97.95.172.50] has quit [Changing host] 06:21 -!- metamarc [~cypher@unaffiliated/agorist000] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:29 -!- Starduster [~guest@unaffiliated/starduster] has quit [Read error: Connection reset by peer] 06:29 -!- Starduster [~guest@unaffiliated/starduster] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:32 -!- matsjj [~matsjj@p5B2093ED.dip0.t-ipconnect.de] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:33 -!- Starduster [~guest@unaffiliated/starduster] has quit [Read error: Connection reset by peer] 06:33 -!- Starduster [~guest@5ED11658.cm-7-2a.dynamic.ziggo.nl] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:33 -!- Starduster [~guest@5ED11658.cm-7-2a.dynamic.ziggo.nl] has quit [Changing host] 06:33 -!- Starduster [~guest@unaffiliated/starduster] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:36 -!- matsjj [~matsjj@p5B2093ED.dip0.t-ipconnect.de] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 06:41 -!- frankenmint [~frankenmi@71-222-57-192.ptld.qwest.net] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 06:42 -!- frankenmint [~frankenmi@71-222-57-192.ptld.qwest.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 06:44 < jgarzik> kanzure, related plug and wizards material - bitcoin-specific auction - https://github.com/jgarzik/auctionpunk 06:46 < Taek> the readme is not terribly helpful :P 06:46 < aj> kanzure: hash of invalid block was an anti-SPV-mining thing i think? 06:47 -!- frankenmint [~frankenmi@71-222-57-192.ptld.qwest.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 255 seconds] 06:47 < kanzure> jgarzik: yeah you should do quick readme for that 06:48 -!- sparetire_ [~sparetire@unaffiliated/sparetire] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:00 -!- frankenmint [~frankenmi@71-222-57-192.ptld.qwest.net] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:03 < jgarzik> kanzure, Taek: done 07:04 < kanzure> guess you can go home early now 07:05 < kanzure> "First Price Sealed Bid auctions" 07:05 -!- kyuupichan [~Neil@14.3.53.102] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 07:20 -!- zooko [~user@2601:281:8001:26aa:c4eb:4233:eafe:137e] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:22 < jgarzik> it will improve quite a bit once CLTV is rolled out 07:35 -!- nessence [~alexl@109.174.174.90] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 07:36 -!- nessence [~alexl@109.174.174.90] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:39 < Taek> knosys page for 'Decentralized Prediction Markets': https://github.com/DavidVorick/knosys/blob/master/Decentralized%20Prediction%20Markets.md 07:41 -!- nessence [~alexl@109.174.174.90] has quit [Ping timeout: 272 seconds] 07:42 -!- NLNico [~NLNico@unaffiliated/nlnico] has joined #bitcoin-wizards 07:51 -!- nessence [~alexl@109.174.174.90] has joined 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