--- Log opened Fri Jun 09 00:00:17 2017
00:01 < adam3us> sipa if samon is right and the hysteresis human feedback loop is weak, this would result in more stable fees without shooting up each time the price increases, and waiting for pain point for users to slowly fumble around, or services adjust their fixed fee pricing etc.  some services dont care so much because user pays even.  even big services with millions of users.
00:01 < adam3us> s/samon/samson/
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00:15 < waxwing> btcusd does not enter into the picture, but btc/purchasing power does. usd is a decent proxy (or eur, whatever you prefer).
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01:14 < adam3us> yes but the question is specific. there is a direct mechanical driver between recent fees in satoshis/byte and current estimate. but there is only a weak, reactive and mostly indirectly (via often non-cost exposed) intermediaries on the hysteresis to normalise in purchasing power terms. therefore i suspect samson is right and this is artificially driving fees higher than otherwise
01:15 < sipa> if that's the case, the fee market is not working
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01:44 < adam3us> sipa minimally in a rising BTCUSD market, with a mechanical driver, and a weaker reactive on the downside - a few people who now how or even have direct control (not set by their fee agnostic service provider who is passing the fee on to them, their only means to lower fee is to complain or switch service provider which may have a high switching cost), then it will be like petrol prices
01:45 < adam3us> ie if there the price of crude oil goes up, pump prices instantly go up, when crude oil falls there's a hysteresis while people start nudging prices down by shopping around, if they are price sensitive, it takes a while for competition to push prices down.
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03:39 < stevenroose> I don't know how fee estimation currently works, but it's not working very well. It's not working well with price boosts and not working well with tx/mempool bursts
03:41 < stevenroose> A day of overflowing mempools and blocks full of high fee txs (whether or not artificially created by miners) causes everyone to overpay for a whole week
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04:31 < kanzure> are there good numbers about "overpay for a week"?
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04:40 < stevenroose> kanzure, I don't have any
04:42 < mryandao> maybe its worthwhile visiting the idea of including a TTL for bitcoin transactions?
04:43 < mryandao> so I can just commit however much txfee, and by TTL if it has not yet been confirmed, at least I know its been dropped from mempool and I can try again with a new fee
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04:43 < stevenroose> even though that's not how a ttl should work, it is not possible using scripting
04:44 < stevenroose> recently bumped into that. it's possible to set a date from which a tx can be accepted, but not after which it cannot be accepted
04:44 < stevenroose> so you could not use a checklocktime-like thing to make your tx invalid after a certain block
04:44 < stevenroose> (even though that's ofc not how you would like to do a TTL :D)
04:45 < mryandao> does op_csv work with unix-timestamps?
04:48 < bsm117532> I'm a bit afraid of a run on the bank: fee event where market participants decide fees are too high and that causing them to transfer their assets to another coin/class.  We're approaching the point were fees are exceeding reasonable transaction fees and spreads on other assets like stocks.
04:49 < kanzure> "reasonable transaction fees" ?
04:50 < bsm117532> On a dollar basis, when tx fees exceed that of other asset classes...
04:50 < kanzure> nah how about something that is an internal defintion only, like looking at small outputs that are becoming unspendable or something
04:51 < bsm117532> Speculators don't give a shit about that. ;-)
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04:56 < mryandao> does bitcoin give a shit about speculators?
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05:11 < bsm117532> The price certainly does.  And as a matter of system engineering, banks are engineered to handle excess load (e.g. via FDIC insurance) but we have nothing to buffer fees in a sell-off event.  They'll spike like crazy.  (regardless of the cause of the sell-off event)
05:12 < bsm117532> And the fact that fees are unrelated to the magnitude of value transfer, only the highest BTC holders will be able to get their funds transferred.  Others will have to wait for the fee to fall.
05:18 < instagibbs> bsm117532, you can't exit if you can't move your coins ;)
05:38 < Taek> instagibbs: playing the long game
05:39 < Taek> adam3us: I've been thinking about fee markets and hysteresis a lot the past few weeks, and there are I think a few things worth noting
05:40 < Taek> https://bitcoinfees.21.co/
05:40 < Taek> 0-1 confirmations takes a fee of 300 sats, yet there are plenty of transactions above 540 sats. 200 sats gets you in within 8 blocks
05:40 < Taek> that's a huge spread
05:40 < Taek> Miners can pretty easily screw with this just by refusing to mine low value transactions every once in a while
05:41 < Taek> The way fee estimation currently works, if you want to get into the next block, you'll way over-estimate if a miner is maliciously trying to push up fees
05:41 < Taek> second thing, estimation doesn't consider the current tpool at all
05:42 < Taek> and I think that's super valuable information, because ultimately it's the 1mb of highest fees that's going to make it into the next block, modulo secret deals and shenanigans
05:42 < waxwing> maybe somewhat interesting to people http://randomwalker.info/publications/bitcoin-obfuscation.pdf
05:43 < Taek> So I'm going to say we've got a 'loose' fee market - people are often way overpaying to get into blocks, where if they were willing to take a 25% risk of missing their 1 block target, they'd be able to cut fees by 1/3 or more
05:44 < Taek> And I'd also posit that a loose fee market results in much worse inflation, because people see that it takes 500 sats to get into a block (that's what bitcoinfees.21.co is recommending), and so that's where they set their mental bar for what is reasonable
05:44 < kanzure> Taek: you could ask users to draw a probability density curve for how many confirmations they want how quickly :P
05:45 < instagibbs> Taek, I'm kidding of course. Aggressive RBF will become the norm in the future.
05:45 < Taek> I mean, users are going to draw curves that simply aren't realistic. You can't guarantee yourself getting into the next block no matter what you pay - if the next block the miner just decides 'empty' is the good thing to do, there's nothing you can do about it
05:45 < kanzure> oh you want the wallet to do this by default..?
05:46 < Taek> yeah I think so
05:46 < Taek> most users just put the fee that their wallet tells them
05:46 < Taek> and the wallet operators generally don't like receiving emails about failed confirmations, so there's strong bias to overpay
05:46 < Taek> the strong overpay bias of course results in a fast upward sprial, where I think a lot of it is probably not needed
05:47 < Taek> Hysteresis: The current system looks backwards at previous blocks with a half life of 350 blocks? Something like that
05:47 < Taek> https://gist.github.com/morcos/d3637f015bc4e607e1fd10d8351e9f41 346 blocks it seems
05:47 < Taek> A halflife of several days is going to mean that there's no response at all to things like reduced pressure at night
05:47 < instagibbs> Taek, 3 time horizons to choose from
05:47 < instagibbs> with 3 different halflifes
05:47 < Taek> ah ok
05:48 < instagibbs> (for 0.15)
05:48 < Taek> user chooses? I still think that's really not the way to go
05:48 < Taek> because ultimately, there's exactly one fee value that will get you in for fastest and cheapest
05:48 < instagibbs> getting off-topic, but no theres a raw API and a "smart" one
05:48 < Taek> ah ok
05:49 < Taek> not off topic I think, how users interact with the system is absolutely going to drive the fee rates
05:50 < Taek> We haven't had a chance to delpoy it yet, but with Sia we're experimenting with a transaction pool based fee system
05:51 < Taek> basically you adjust the recommended fee based on what's in your transaction pool
05:51 < Taek> the blocks are used as a fallback to make sure you aren't grossly off-target
05:51 < instagibbs> seems sane for picking a range, RBF often will be needed due to bursty blocks
05:52 < Taek> intending to aggressively use rbf is probably a good strategy to keep fees low
05:52 < Taek> if you know the mempool is empty, you can try a low fee. If you see it starting to fill up, you can go ahead and rbf it up a bit
05:52 < Taek> What you really need is to ask users what fee they are comfortable paying, and then let the wallet play whatever games it can to get a fee that's as low as possible
05:53 < Taek> and then the wallet knows when it's hit a fee that it can't increase anymore, and the user has been priced out
05:53 < Taek> also, something you may not be aware, but  there are definitely users in the wild who set fees with the intention of waiting 3 days or more for their first confirmation
05:53 < mryandao> why not have a user commit to a fee, and introduce a "limited lifetime" for 0-conf tx?
05:54 < Taek> I know a guy who typically uses 20 sats as his fee, and he usually gets in within a week
05:54 < mryandao> then when said validity time expires, a user can know that all mempools will have discard said tx and they'll try again with a different fee
05:54 < instagibbs> mryandao, bramc has proposed a mechanism like that, but it's not reorg safe
05:55 < instagibbs> a reorg might permanently invalidate a tx chain, which in general is frowned upon as a design decision in Bitcoin
05:55 < Taek> it's also more complicated than you want a typical user interacting with
05:55 < Taek> they just want to know that their transaction is going to go through, and in some (strict or casual) timeframe
05:56 < instagibbs> fwiw it may make perfect sense in a no-reorg situation like federated chains
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06:43 < Taek> instagibbs: you can solve the issue with a mandatory timelock
06:44 < Taek> imagine that you set a deadline on a transaction at 6 blocks from now. In doing so, you also get an implied timelock that's 86 blocks forward on that output
06:44 < Taek> this follows the miner rule of needing to wait 80 blocks, that's where I'm pulling the number from
06:44 < Taek> or, I guess it wouldn't need to be 86 exactly, it could just be 80 forward from whatever height the txn gets confirmed
06:45 < Taek> this eliminates the risk of invalidating tx chains
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07:18 < Taek> adam3us: Displaying users fees in terms of dollars instead of btc might help, but when the btc price goes up people's willingness to pay high fees will also go up because they will feel richer
07:18 < Taek> really, I feel like we should instead build a mechanic around figuring out the max a person is willing to pay, and then otherwise using market mechanics to drive the fee as low as possible
07:18 < Taek> I'm pulling together a more comprehensive proposal, will post in a few
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09:11 < Taek> adam3us, instagibbs: https://gist.github.com/DavidVorick/ba17fb7db50b9270d1c2131ff425422b
09:11 < Taek> ^ proposal for fee estimation that imo will result in much lower fees, and *also* fewer stuck transactions
09:12 < Taek> a nice thing about this proposal is that the proposed fee value should drop quickly as the demand for txns drops
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09:25 < kanzure> Taek: perhaps send to bitcoin-dev mailing list.
09:26 < Taek> ah, maybe. It's been pretty garbage lately >.<
09:27 < kanzure> unfortunately my mandate is not to moderate for signal-noise ratio :( otherwise i'd ban everyone sure.
09:29 < Taek> I think the snr is bad enough at this point that we're losing a lot of high-signal discussion, b/c it feels like wasted time
09:29 < mryandao> ^ hah, I couldn't even keep up with the reading
09:29 < Taek> important devs don't even bother reading it anymore, and that's pretty much the last thing you want on a dev mailing list
09:29 < instagibbs> It makes me want to switch to batch mode again :/
09:31 < kanzure> well, if there's a mandate to ban the hell out of everyone, i'll do it.
09:31 < Taek> kanzure: who makes mandates?
09:32 < kanzure> last time, it was users that asked for some moderation around the inflammatory nonsense, and then *poof* moderation existed (me)
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--- Log closed Sat Jun 10 00:00:18 2017