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14:12 < proofofkeags> What is the current State of the art thinking around the issue of declining block subsidy and "sufficient" cost of deep reorgs?
14:13 < proofofkeags> I was just reading rusty's commentary here: https://rusty-lightning.medium.com/the-cost-of-bitcoins-security-419bc3c82e00
14:15 < proofofkeags> There's this tendency to believe that the problem is 120 years away but the reality seems that the rate will be "practically zero" very soon even if it isn't "actually zero" for another 120years
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14:16 < proofofkeags> On a positive note we see fees making up approximately 15% of the total reward today, which is far from negligible. But I was wondering what the brightest minds in the space thought about this particular issue.
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14:19 < belcher> iv been tracking fees as a % of miner revenue (averaged over many time periods including 2016 blocks) and they've been hovering at about 10% for months and months
14:19 < sipa> i have honestly no clue what will happen
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14:20 < belcher> its very interesting because though the fees themselves have been volatile, they drop at the weekends and rise on monday morning, but if you average over 2 weeks it seems pretty stable, at least since ~july 2020 when i started looking
14:20 < belcher> its often said that "fees need to rise" which im not sure about, its also possible that the difficulty drops, right?
14:20 < sipa> why oh why did i parse "2016 blocks" as "blocks from the year 2016"?
14:23 < proofofkeags> if difficulty drops the question becomes what liability to the network at large does the idle mining hardware pose?
14:23 < proofofkeags> and does the presense of double sha256 altcoins mitigate this?
14:24 < proofofkeags> there doesn't seem to be any "right" amount of hashpower, but I do often wonder what happens if hashpower declines 51% off of ATH
14:24 < sipa> i expect in a long-term steady state that exchange rate as well as common feerates will be much less volatile than now
14:25 < sipa> and in such a setting there wouldn't be much reason why miners are operational but turned off due to economics
14:26 < proofofkeags> are you suggesting by "operational" that the materials are effectively recycled?
14:28 < sipa> no, i mean: in a steady state with little variation in income, all current-generation hardware that exists will always be on
14:28 < sipa> you wouldn't turn it off because the next block is temporarily not profitable enough to mine for
14:28 < sipa> i thought that was the concern you're referring to
14:28 < proofofkeags> no
14:28 < proofofkeags> I'm referring to the declining subsidy
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14:29 < proofofkeags> that if certain miners can no longer compete with smaller margins, that the hardware goes offline "permanently"
14:29 < proofofkeags> where it can be repurchased for strategic reorgs by malicious actors
14:30 < sipa> hmm, good question
14:30 < sipa> advances in hardware should increase power efficiency, which can compensate at least somewhat the reduction in subsidy
14:30 < sipa> (plus, if subsidy isn't taken over by other mining income - whether that's tx fees or something else - we'll have a problem regardless)
14:31 < proofofkeags> how much do we have left from thermodynamic first principles?
14:31 < proofofkeags> I was under the impression that the tech was getting more efficient at a palpably declining rate
14:31 < proofofkeags> but I also am not a hardware guy
14:32 < sipa> ASICs had to catch up with the state of the art in silicon tech, which i believe they pretty much have by now
14:33 < sipa> but silicon tech is still improving, just at a much slower rate than ASICs have had the economic incentive to catch up
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14:34 < sipa> (but, i'm also not a hardware person)
14:35 < sipa> as far as theoretical limits goes... you're referring to something like https://abstrusegoose.com/219 ?
14:36 < proofofkeags> ha, maybe? I'm not sure exactly what I'm referring to, I just know that a lot of the challenges faced in modern silicon design is around defeating fundamental physics properties moreso than actually getting the things built
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14:39 < proofofkeags> the claim that tech improving can cancel out the effect of declining subsidy in such a way that it has a roughly cancelling property to guard against idle hardware would imply that we'd have to double hashpower efficiency every 4 years
14:47 < darosior> proofofkeags: block reward != block subsidy. Subsdidy being cut by half does not mean block reward is
14:54 < proofofkeags> darosior: fair point, I suppose fees are unlikely to ever *decline*, so at 10% fee makeup (per belcher's analysis), it would only be a .45^-1 decline in 2024, with subsequent halvings having less and less pronounced effects
14:56 < proofofkeags> sorry, just a 45% decline, and the inverse would be needed for hardware efficiency in order to compensate
14:59 < belcher> this current fee rise in the last few months is probably due to the bull market, in a bear market fees would go down too most likely
15:00 < darosior> I think the concern is also (probably mainly?) about the regularity of the fee backlog rather than its actual size
15:01 < darosior> proofofkeags: if you dig a fair bit you can find interesting old Bitcointalk / ML post on this matter
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15:02 < darosior> Since that didn't evolve much in the past years i believe the discussions are still relevant
15:02 < proofofkeags> I can look, but do you have any keywords or tips to aid the search?
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15:18 < darosior> proofofkeags: something like https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-May/008091.html is probably a good start
15:18 < proofofkeags> perfect, thank you
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--- Log closed Sat Feb 06 00:00:37 2021