--- Log opened Sun Jun 13 00:00:06 2021
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09:33 < harding> yanmaani: your idea is a bit underspecified.  Given the genesis block time stamp of 1231006505, the current best block time of 1623601764, and the current height of 687429, what is your algorithm for getting us to a difficulty anywhere near the current difficulty of 21047730572451.55 ?
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10:58 < yanmaani> harding: Current algorithm is to set the difficulty such that new_diff = old_diff * (600s / observed_block_time), right?
11:02 < yanmaani> My idea is to set new_diff = old_diff * (600s / observed_block_time) * ((current_time + 2wks - implied_timestamp) / 2wks), where implied_timestamp = genesis_timestamp + (height * 600). If the chain is "running ahead" (too early), the difficulty will go up, which makes the block time go up.
11:03 < yanmaani> In plain English, if average hashrate across this difficulty period continues for the whole of the next difficulty period, the block timestamp at current_height+2016 will equal current_time+86400*14.
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17:11 < harding> yanmaani: with your idea, if blocks were produced fast last period and difficulty went up, then blocks were produced at an exact average of 10m/block in this period, wouldn't that still cause a difficulty increase next period since we still seem to be running ahead?  In other words, I think your function tries to bring difficulty back down to 1, whereas the current function is memoryless and doesn't bias the result.
17:55 < yanmaani> harding: correct.
17:55 < yanmaani> this would result in more consistent average blocktimes, though
17:59 < roconnor> The Bank of Canada has been basically having the same debate of (the current) inflation rate targetting versus price level targeting which instead would target that meeting a CPI target over time.
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17:59 < roconnor> The advatage of targeting is that the long term expected value of CAD become more certain, making long term contracts denominated in CAD even more predicable.
18:01 < roconnor> Similarly targeting the genesis block delta in Bitcoin would make its emission schedule also more predictable.
18:01 < _aj_> harding: i think you'd do   new_difficulty = (exp_tot_time / cur_tot_time) * old_difficulty  -- so you wouldn't bring difficulty back down to 1
18:02 < roconnor> I don't have any real understanding of which targeting is better philosphically nor which one may or may not have technical concerns (regarding stability of difficulty adjustments, etc).
18:03 < _aj_> harding: you'd get a much slower ramp up though; if hashpower went x10 after bitcoin had been running for a decade, you'd only increase difficulty by 0.05% rather than 10x
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18:04 < _aj_> err, 0.3% maybe
18:06 < _aj_> roconnor: could be interesting to have an average of both factors -- so that if hashrate changes suddenly you react quickly, but when it's constant, you end up doing level targetting to get back on schedule
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18:37 < yanmaani> _aj_: Why would difficulty be brought to 1?
18:38 < yanmaani> In the steady state, observed_block_time = 600, and (current_time - implied_timestamp) = 0 => new_diff = old_diff * (600/600) * ((0 + 2wks)/2wks) = old_diff * 1 * 1 = old_diff
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19:03 < _aj_> yanmaani: harding was saying it would, i was saying it wouldn't
19:04 < yanmaani> _aj_: Wait, is there something wrong with my algorithm?
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21:34 < harding> roconnor: in the case of Bitcoin, long-term targeting normalizes both the currency emission rate and the available block space.  Although having a more predicitable upper bound on block storage requirements is nice, I think it might kind of suck in practice if every period of significantly increased hash rate (probably low fees) is followed by a few periods of significantly reduced block space (probably high fees).  The current algorithm makes 
21:34 < harding> the minimum amount of block space available at any given time more predictable at a cost of making the emission schedule (in real time terms) less predictable.  That seems like a reasonable tradeoff to me.
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--- Log closed Mon Jun 14 00:00:37 2021