2015-08-04.log

--- Log opened Tue Aug 04 00:00:30 2015
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TaekI have never seen this before:00:22
Taekhttps://www.cs.utexas.edu/users/lorenzo/bar.html00:22
gmaxwellI've talked about BAR model in here a fair number of times in the past; never seen that particular page; see (at least some of) the papers there. It's a useful model, I think.00:29
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lmatteisis this real https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3frht4/satoshi_nakamoto_moved_today_for_the_first_time/ ?09:40
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frankenminthttps://blockchain.info/address/1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb109:49
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andytoshilmatteis: yes, but probably #bitcoin until (if ever) more information comes out09:49
andytoshii don't think anyone here was responsible for those transactions09:49
frankenmintprice movement today09:49
frankenminti mean coins movement but I'm certain that we could see market reaction to this as well,09:50
andytoshimarket reaction is definitely OT here09:50
frankenmintsorry09:50
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fluffyponyandytoshi: oh sorry, it was me, my finger slipped when I was trying to play SatoshiDice09:52
fluffypony:-P09:52
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btcdrakBC.i go home you're drunk.09:54
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btcdrakmaraoz: so that's an attack on the blockexplorers?09:56
fluffyponyseems that way09:57
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maraozbtcdrak: so it seems. bc.i is the only affected explorer afaik10:00
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fluffyponybtcdrak: "Relayed by IP Blockchain.info"10:05
fluffyponyso there's that10:05
frankenminthmm, I was thinking, if BTC hyptothetically could choose its own blocksize on its own, how would it work?10:06
frankenmintwould it be forward thinking or lazy?10:06
btcdrakRIP anyone relying on BC.i's API and accepts zeroconfirms10:06
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lmatteisandytoshi: before saying "yes" you should wait confirmations ;)10:21
andytoshilmatteis: well, it was a real bc.i link :)10:22
andytoshibut yes, lesson learned, i thought this was too extreme a bug even for bc.i10:22
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GAitI can't say I've seen worse but my first reaction was to check other block explorers and my node10:23
fluffyponywell this is blockchain.info10:27
fluffyponythey deserve to be stripped of the name on account of incompetence10:27
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Tiraspol^10:30
nshandytoshi, hey have you looked into multiprover models much?10:32
nshfor zero-knowledge consensus, that is10:33
andytoshinsh: not at all, sorry10:35
andytoshii suppose multisignatures are a special case of that10:36
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nshhmm10:36
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nshi suspect there are definite efficiency savings, but you then have a problem of ensuring no collusion in some interactive proof, or you have a more abstract problem of facilitating non-interactive proofs with composition10:38
nshi was hoping that you might be able to avoid trusted setup using multiple provers, but that seems overly optimistic10:38
nsh(PCPs can be dispensed with, but from what I saw, it was still under a CRS model)10:39
andytoshi:/ i've been really out of the loop on zero-knowledge proving in 2015, all my crypto stuff has been ECC related.10:40
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andytoshithough fwiw nothing has jumped out at me from eprint.iacr.org in that time10:40
* nsh nods10:40
nshthere's also this, which i missed last year:  ZØ: An Optimizing Distributing Zero-Knowledge Compiler  -- http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/livshits/papers/pdf/usenixsec14.pdf10:40
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nsh'Probabilistic proofs and the collective epistemic goals of mathematicians'   ah, science <310:55
nshcited by 'Are there Psychological Species?'10:56
nsh.title http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-46803-6_1110:58
yoleauxLinear Secret Sharing Schemes from Error Correcting Codes and Universal Hash Functions - Springer10:58
nsh(can you find the pdf for this, kanzure?)10:58
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fluffyponyssh whoami.filippo.io11:09
fluffyponyclever11:09
fluffypony(related blog post: https://blog.filippo.io/ssh-whoami-filippo-io/)11:10
fluffyponyalso particularly relevant for anyone who uses github and ssh on the same box11:10
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arubifluffypony, awww :((11:16
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MRL-Relay[shen] We tried to use that to find your GitHub username, but we          |11:31
MRL-Relay[shen]     |  couldn't :( maybe you don't even have GitHub ssh keys, do you?11:31
MRL-Relay[shen] haha11:32
fluffyponylucky you, you've escaped identification11:33
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MRL-Relay[shen] hrm my keys may be more recent than the dataset ran for11:38
MRL-Relay[shen] "I started running the streamer on 2014-12-27 and now 2015-01-09 I have quite a few keys:"11:38
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psztorcSalutations12:42
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psztorcI've written a blog post you might enjoy, arguing that "Nothing is cheaper than Proof-of-Work".12:42
psztorchttp://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/12:43
andytoshihi paul :)12:44
psztorchi andy : )12:45
nshty12:46
nshi object to referring to how economics do anything as the correct way, even where it might be12:47
nsh*economists12:47
psztorcit isn't a general claim, of course, just one about measuring costs12:48
* nsh nods12:50
nsh.wik Spearman correlation12:52
yoleaux"In statistics, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient or Spearman's rho, named after Charles Spearman and often denoted by the Greek letter  (rho) or as , is a nonparametric measure of statistical dependence between two variables. It assesses how well the relationship between two variables can be described using a monotonic function." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spearman_correlation12:52
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nsh--12:55
nsh( Did you know that Bitcoin uses extremely strong randomness to select the creator of the next block? The randomness discourages collusion among block creators, making double-spend attacks unreliable. The randomness is so strong that no one can predict who will find the next block, or even when the next block will be found! )12:55
nsh-- you link to the distribution that's used to predict when the next block will be found...12:55
psztorcI know, I thought it was conceptually the closest12:56
nshi'm just suggesting that claiming it can't be predicted is a bit misleading12:56
c0rw1nwell it can't be predicted exactly ...12:56
psztorcgood point, I'll add "exactly"12:56
nshthe fact that the period of block discovery converges on 10m modulo the cut corners of difficulty increases is kinda important to bitcoin working nicely12:56
* nsh nods12:56
nshcut corners of *hashpower increases12:57
andytoshii really like the couple paragraphs after "Is a “Work-Independent” protocol possible?", i think this is something people have trouble understanding12:57
andytoshii do think your definition of P2P will be called "too strong" by people advocating (partially) centralized solutions; hopefully they will at least have to be honest that this is what they're doing12:58
andytoshi"This is because Miners are the most able to double-spend, and these coins are the easiest to double-spend, and so they need to be held to standards which are extra-conservative" is sorta true but not why we have the maturity time12:59
c0rw1ndepends how blind you want the distribution to be exactly, but "infinitely" doesn't exist that's totally right12:59
andytoshiit's easiest for miners to double-spend, but they can double-spend anything with the same ease12:59
andytoshithe reason we have the maturity period is that in case of reorg, coinbase transactions are -gone-, even without malicious behaviour12:59
psztorcOk thanks13:00
nshpsztorc, 'Earned $2000. After expenses and repayment, $230 was earned as compensation for specialized labor attention and risk-compensation.' how do you calculate that split?13:00
andytoshiwell, i guess if the same miner produced both forks the coinbase could be the same13:00
nshoh, nm13:01
lmatteisin Vitalik's "On Stake" article, he states that a PoS system "no one gains any benefit from making more than one attempt per account per second" using a PoS algorithm such that SHA256(prevhash + address + timestamp) <= 2^256 * balance / diff. i'm confused by this. couldn't one peer try many future timestamps to find the "smaller" value and therefore claim13:03
lmatteisthe block?13:03
c0rw1nthen what's preventing anyone from makint 10k accounts?13:03
c0rw1n*making13:03
fluffyponypsztorc: great article13:04
lmatteisi guess that other peers won't accept timestamps in the future?13:05
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psztorcthank you!13:06
nshi don't think it's entirely fair to say that large capital deposit illiquidity doens't have a temporary deflationary effect. i don't believe it's socially useful, but it may be argued to exist to a certain extent13:09
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nshpricing reflects circulating currency, not theoretically future circulating currency, but it's not quite that simple either13:11
nshactually, you address this is in the following paragraph13:12
psztorci get that a lot13:12
fluffyponylol13:14
psztorcit sounds funny, but I actually seriously wonder if there's something wrong with the writing13:14
waxwingyes nice article, problem is how do we get people not like the ones in this channel to understand it ? :)13:15
* nsh smiles13:15
nshstart a cryptocurrency where you earn coins via comprehensive recruitment13:16
nsh*evangelism maybe13:16
fluffyponywaxwing: you don't, PoS makes sense "intuitively" if you aren't used to thinking adversarially. Convincing people otherwise is...ugh...so much effort. The only way they learn is to get burned.13:16
nshasimov wrote a book once called "a choice of catastrophes" going into the various ways humanity might see its end13:17
nshsomeone could do a project where they create a successful of pedagogical altcoins that all fall to the various theoretical dangers in clear and theatrical ways13:17
nshsounds like a lot of effort though13:18
waxwingfluffypony: well, that's a reasonable point but otoh in matters of money i feel like people understand that you can't just rely on fuzzy warm feelings. free market principles are widely understood. I think it's a failure to believe that physics can be involved that's the problem.13:18
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fluffyponywaxwing: what I mean is that most people are disinterested in learning and understanding13:18
fluffyponythat's not to say there aren't willing teachers, but how often is the "read the logs" post beaten here? people are lazy :-P13:19
nsh.wik abatement technology13:20
yoleaux"Disambiguation: Abatement" — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abatement13:20
waxwingseriously; most are literally incredulous when they first discover that bitcoin is fundamentally based on electrical power. see for example I Kaminska's old article with a title something like "Is this how money dies? With thunderous CPUs?"13:20
nshunfuck-the-planet-tech, presumably13:21
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psztorcMarkets are a conveyor of information...such that people will have to agree with you, even without replicating your experiences or reasoning.13:28
psztorcBut we already have coinmarketcap with Bitcoin outperforming by like a factor of 200 and that doesn't persuade anyone either13:28
waxwingagreed13:28
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tromp_lmatteis: future timestamps will be accepted only later; thos in distant future may be ignored14:19
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tromp_c0rw1n: splitting your balance doesnt help you satisfy that equation14:21
c0rw1nyeah i misparsed14:23
c0rw1nsry :(14:23
lmatteistromp_: say i just create a whole chain by myself, with entirely new transactions and blocks from the very beginning. are checkpoints the only thing stopping this from happening?14:24
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tromp_well, the very beginning could be defined by an ICO genesis, it's not fair to call that a checkpoint14:27
tromp_you still need to get hold of enough old private keys to rewrite history14:28
tromp_eg. by hacking a wallet hosting exchange14:29
andytoshilmatteis: on bitcoin checkpoints will prevent this in practice, but it's not necessarily true that all nodes have the same checkpoints. what actually blocks you is the amount of work you'd have to do to beat the total chain work14:29
lmatteisandytoshi: yep and that's obvious in pow. unclear in vitalik's implementation14:30
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andytoshioh, sorry, i wasn't following the context of the discussion14:30
helowow, that paper...14:31
nshICO genesis, tromp_?14:33
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nshoh, initial coin offering14:34
tromp_yep, like what NXT had14:36
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lmatteistromp_: but with keys wouldn't you only have access to that block? you wouldn't be able to generate the other blocks after it... or would you?14:36
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tromp_you can make arbitrarily many blocks with arbitrarily many txs transferring stake among the accounts for which you have privkeys14:40
lmatteishrm ok14:41
lmatteisso wouldn't a user that sold all his currency, go back and do this?14:42
gmaxwellOr give sell his old empty keys to someone else who will.14:43
gmaxwellSure.14:43
gmaxwellI mean, most of the time most people don't care to attack.  Though generally we don't regard things secured by indifference as very secure.14:43
gmaxwelllmatteis: you've been coming in here every couple weeks since Sep 18 2014 and asking about POS; burning out a bunch of people on this subject who were already tired of explaining it multiple times. I really do think you'd benefit from carefully reading and contemplating the materials that were directed to you the very first time you joined the channel.14:45
lmatteisok yes. it was more a question regarding vitalik's blog post. but i'll stop14:47
* nsh smiles14:48
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Taekhttps://github.com/DavidVorick/Simulations/blob/master/Unlimited%20Blocksize/main.go15:00
TaekI made a block propagation manipulate simulation15:00
Taek*manipulation15:01
Taekthe results and conclusion are at the bottom of the file, the setup is at the top15:01
Taekthe results weren't as interesting as I was hoping15:01
TaekI think it ultimately takes some pretty extreme network bandwidth asymmetry in order for a miner to encourage mining centralization via unlimited blocksize manipulation15:02
nshwhat is the limiting factor?15:05
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Taeknsh: my setup has 6 nodes, 3 with 40gbps links to eachother, and the rest of the graph is fully connected at 1gbps15:11
Taekthe 40gbps nodes have 25% hashing power each15:11
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Taek40gbps vs. 1gbps is a pretty big disparity, and I don't think the results would be interesting if it was only 2x difference15:12
* nsh nods15:12
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gmaxwellTaek: uh. that looks bogus, go compare to sipa's simulator.  (As an aside; 40gbps? come on.)15:22
Taekwhat looks bogus about it? (there are datacenters with 40gbps connections, I know it's a stretch but it didn't seem entirely unworldly. Do you think it was also too generous to give the 'weak' miners a 1gbps conenction?)15:24
gmaxwellTaek: (as an aside; another thing to keep in mind is that since mining is perfect competition a 1% difference in blockchain concentration can be a 50% increase in profit.)15:25
gmaxwellTaek: because your fully meshed network for 40gbps connections (assuming it was distributed around the world) would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a month.15:26
phantomcircuitgmaxwell, more than that...15:26
phantomcircuitasia/africa are crazy expensive to get bandwidth15:26
gmaxwellI'm being generous because it's been a few years since I was involved in building such things. :)15:26
TaekI am skeptical that a 1% difference in revenue would blow up to 50% difference in profit, but fully aware that there is a large multiplier15:26
TaekI also believe that's Sipa's simulation of adding only a 2mbps conenction between the mining groups is overly-strict15:27
phantomcircuitTaek, the profit margin on mining long term approaches zero15:27
phantomcircuita 1% difference will be enormous15:27
gmaxwellTaek: that was based on an actual measurement (to china); but you're free to change it and try different situations.15:28
phantomcircuitiirc 2mbps is actually double the actual rate due to packet loss + tcp15:28
gmaxwellTaek: getting the 50% blowup just requires mining be operating on a 2% margin over operating costs. We spent much of 2012 at that level.15:28
gmaxwellI think in general trying to look for bandwidth dependance here though is stupid; because there is no necessary dependance at all.15:30
TaekIn general, investors will not invest in anything that has a lower profit margin than the S&P500, because they could have a higher profit margin just by sitting on the stock market.15:30
TaekFor that reason, I don't think profit margin would ever go to 015:30
phantomcircuitTaek, there's a delay between ordering hardware and the hardware being installed15:31
gmaxwellTaek: fuzzy thinking. The hardware is already there. You insert $1 and get $1.02 in a fairly short timescale. People happily (?) buy bounds with interest rates lower than that.15:31
phantomcircuitbecause of that the real profit margin will actually tend towards zero15:31
c0rw1nalso a delay between investment and dividends no?15:31
c0rw1non the Market15:31
phantomcircuitnot to mention that there's enough people out there with "free" power that anybody paying for it is guaranteed to go to zero15:32
phantomcircuitc0rw1n, that's not the basis upon which most people invest in equities markets15:32
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Taekit's definitely a fuzzy thing to reason about. I wouldn't put money behind any of my claims15:32
phantomcircuitTaek, bitcoin mining is a classic perfect market15:32
gmaxwellAnd there are plenty of reasons that it will be dragged lower e.g. due to power surpluses.  In any case, it's a big multiplier regardless of what it is it is exactly.15:32
phantomcircuithttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_market15:33
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c0rw1nlast time i looked it was flatly impossible to buy asics at prices under their fabricator's projection of their returns, free electricity or no :-(15:33
phantomcircuitindeed it's probably the only one that's ever existed15:33
gmaxwellAnd so then you get faced with the question of "hm, should I move my hashpower to megapool X to get 1%*huge_multipler more profit?" the answer is hell yes. :)15:33
phantomcircuitc0rw1n, i suspect that antminers cost of production is significantly below their sale price15:34
phantomcircuitbut they are now an effective monopoly player15:34
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phantomcircuitif you'd like to change that im accepting donations towards an open source bitcoin mining asic... so far i have collected $0.0015:36
phantomcircuit:P15:36
c0rw1nthere were projects on btctalk like two years ago...15:37
c0rw1nhmm15:37
c0rw1nsomething somehing distributed assurance contract15:37
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Taekhuh. I never thought about adding bitcoin mining facilities to power plants to soak up overflow power15:38
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Taekthat might prove to be even more effective than Tesla's wall battery15:38
phantomcircuitTaek, that's likely the eventual direction of the market; but that could take decades15:38
phantomcircuitespecially as most of the excess power is coming from nuclear stations15:38
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phantomcircuitand they have unique security requirements15:39
AdrianGbut that would only allow miners run at certain times.15:40
AdrianGisnt 21.co trying to do something similar with their chips15:40
AdrianGsuck up excess electricity in return for airmiles or something lol15:40
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AdrianGTaek: i think plenty of people invest in things that yield much less than sp500.15:43
Taekbonds is a good example15:44
AdrianGnot just bonds.15:44
AdrianGrental real estate for example15:44
AdrianGyields are lower, but so is the risk.15:44
AdrianGreal estate market in general is huge, much bigger than sp500.15:44
AdrianGyet you have no shortage of investors of all sorts.15:45
gmaxwellTaek: people already use mining for overflow power on industrial sites (often industrial power is billed at $$$ for peak  plus e.g. 2 cents per kwh. So when the machines are off, the miners are on... eating into that big peak)15:45
AdrianGthen you have mutual funds, income trusts, etc etc etc.15:45
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nshheh15:45
nshmining as variable power cost amortization15:45
nshactually, i think it was discussed before15:46
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psztorcI tried to figure out what 21.co was up to, and failed.15:56
psztorcBut it occured to me that they'd have my phone mine while it was plugged into the wall and fully charged (like from 4 to 7 AM).15:56
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AdrianGwhy not space/water heaters17:00
gmaxwellbecause the marginal cost of additional area on a chip when you're already building and packaging a chip is fairly low.17:02
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AdrianGit is, but you can still use the waste heat from large numbers of chips to heat buildings.17:20
AdrianGin some parts of the world, the furnaces are on for like 9 months straight.17:20
gmaxwellSure but thats optimizing for the user's costs, not the mfg cost...17:21
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AdrianGi am not sure how they are going to sell "pay higher electricity bill, get some magic internet money"17:24
AdrianGtiny amounts of both, to the point of negligible?17:24
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azariahpsztorc: nice post, comments also turning out to be interesting :)17:28
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