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| dgenr8 | inevitably some will use near-miss blocks, IBLT, or any kind of miner pre-acknowledgement to assign greater confidence to those unconfirmed txes | 08:42 |
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| nwilcox | What is IBLT? | 08:48 |
| kanzure | "near-miss blocks" sounds like "nearly missed but not missed by narrow margin", whereas i think you want "near-and-missed blocks"... i suppose "weak blocks" eliminates this confusion, contradicting what i said yesterday in here. doh. | 08:49 |
| kanzure | nwilcox: invertible bloom lookup tables, https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/e20c3b5a1d4b97f79ac2 | 08:50 |
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| kanzure | oh, i only said that historically people called them "near blocks", not that i think the term was better. so that's good. | 08:51 |
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| nwilcox | kanzure: danke. | 08:54 |
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| Eliel | well, weak blocks do serve as proof of what transactions some miners are attempting to include. | 09:29 |
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| kanzure | "Comments on a formal verification of polarssl" http://blog.regehr.org/archives/1261 | 09:50 |
| gmaxwell | kanzure: I thought it was interesting that it's hard to tell from the post that they're using frama-c. | 09:52 |
| gmaxwell | (also from the writeup, in fact) | 09:53 |
| gmaxwell | I've used frama-c on libsecp256k1 some, though no where near as extensively as that analysis. | 09:53 |
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| psztorc | Why Ethereum has no use-cases: http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/contracts-oracles-sidechains/ | 12:07 |
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| gmaxwell | psztorc: unrelated; I wanted to ask you wrt your proposals for prediction markets to decide blocksize outcomes-- why do you think this doesn't instantly become an "all pay auction"? It seems to me to be exactly that: once you've bet on a particular outcome your utility is always increased by betting more on it so long as your bet improves your ability to be on the winning side. | 12:19 |
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| psztorc | Well the bet does not improve your ability to be on the winning side. | 12:24 |
| psztorc | What do you mean by win? | 12:25 |
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| psztorc | One often-overlooked thing about markets is that, while some people may prefer a certain outcome, all people prefer to have more money. | 12:26 |
| psztorc | I wrote a tiny paper about PM manipulation here: http://www.truthcoin.info/papers/5_PM_Manipulation.pdf | 12:26 |
| psztorc | The 'real time' Augmentation thing doesn't apply in this case, but the earlier comments do. | 12:26 |
| psztorc | Here is a debate on this very subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb-6ikXdOzE | 12:27 |
| psztorc | It is an experimental idea, I'm not saying it is nirvana or that we should blindly do whatever the market says. | 12:28 |
| psztorc | But I am claiming that it is the current best governance proposal. | 12:28 |
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| kanzure | "on a particular outcome"- map/territory issues aside, enumerating reasonable counterbalanced outcomes seems very difficult. i think it's more likely that a prediction market is especially useful when a set of requirements or constraints are met about the problem type, outcome representation types and their legitimacy or validity, and then certain incentives of the participants. and then presumably a large set of problems fall outside ... | 12:31 |
| kanzure | ... of this territory. but would be useful to know which problems are definitely squarely inside in a secure way. | 12:31 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: If the prediction is used to determine the outcome it does improve your ability to be on the winning side. | 12:32 |
| gmaxwell | To be clear, this comment was narrowly directed on actually using information from such a prediction to influence an outcome. | 12:32 |
| kanzure | ((same about "what can be securely/correctly decided" can be asked about votes/election choice setup or something.)) | 12:32 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: Yes, the name is commonly changed from "prediction markets" to "decision markets" in that case. | 12:33 |
| psztorc | I'm happy to answer questions, but I'd just be clumsily repeating what I wrote before or items from the debate. | 12:34 |
| psztorc | If you go into any market with a lot of money, you will be able to temporarily move the price...people will wonder "Does he know something?" | 12:34 |
| psztorc | This is the meta-knowledge point...they will be trying to puzzle out your reasoning. If they conclude that your reasoning was a manipulation attempt they will be happy to trade against it. | 12:35 |
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| kanzure | btw, have you seen predictionbook or (unrelatedly) http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/futurism/Changing%20the%20frame%20of%20AI%20futurism:%20From%20storytelling%20to%20heavy-tailed,%20high-dimensional%20probability%20distributions.pdf | 12:35 |
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| psztorc | The set of people willing to do this includes "all who love money" which is always larger than "those who prefer a certain outcome". | 12:36 |
| kanzure | hmm paper link does not show the probability distribution math, so neverimnd on that link. anyway the basic idea there was that prediction models can use probability distributions, which is not surprising but interesting to bother. | 12:37 |
| gmaxwell | Sorry, I have written what you wrote on the subject. But I couldn't extract how it isn't an all-pay auction. I think thinking in terms of manipulation is perhaps too loaded. If you are a rational actor your position is improved by betting on the side with the largest payoff for you. You can just sit down and compute a payoff matrix... I suppose you can argue that a decision outcome is not an al | 12:37 |
| gmaxwell | l-pay-auction if more than some threshold partitipants are not income maximizing (are altruists). | 12:37 |
| psztorc | kanzure: I agree that "the agenda-setter" is still in charge (why censorship-resistance is important), and that the outcome must be post hoc measurable (actually a good restriction). | 12:38 |
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| psztorc | "by betting on the side with the largest payoff for you" this I agree with, but I claim that "the largest payoff for you" is the same for everyone. | 12:39 |
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| psztorc | If you are trying to guess a future number, it will be the same number for everyone. | 12:40 |
| psztorc | Either August 2016's Bitcoin exchange rate is $400 or it isn't. | 12:40 |
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| psztorc | Again, some people might have private valuations which are different from the $400 (perhaps some above, some below), but all people can make money by moving the forecast closer to $400. | 12:43 |
| psztorc | That was the first comment made in the debate video. | 12:43 |
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| psztorc | By an audience member. | 12:43 |
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| psztorc | Although, it isn't a great debate, because one guy gets crushed and the audience are mostly on the leader's side as well. | 13:03 |
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| amiller | one of the main conclusions of this blogpost is that sidechains are OK platforms for oracles and ethereum / anything else is *not* | 13:31 |
| amiller | the reasoning for this seems specious to me... i think it hinges on the idea that ethereum miners are oblivious to the content of contracts (e.g., they will even mine *socially harmful* contracts that lower everyone's value), whereas sidechains miners are sophisticated (they will not mine a sidechain if it causes some overall network harm) | 13:33 |
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| amiller | the main example of a "socially harmful" contract you care about is one that *duplicates* some prediction market, causing people to lose faith in oracles of any kind at all.... let's say that's fine for now | 13:35 |
| psztorc | amiller: Thanks for reading. | 13:35 |
| psztorc | Ethereum miners would need to check each *individual* contract, that defeats the purpose of a general-purpose anything. | 13:35 |
| psztorc | Miners can converge on one oracle-provider-sidechain (as they have with one value-provider chain) | 13:36 |
| amiller | the details of the socially harmful contract don't seem to matter at all btw, it could just as well be a "criminal smart contract" or something else | 13:36 |
| amiller | but i still can't see any fundamental difference to the available actions or information / coordination available to potential ethereum miners or sidechain miners.... your argument is really about some distinction here between the two kinds of miners | 13:37 |
| psztorc | Eth contracts can't be censored, even if censorship were built into the design, new contracts just add more and more obfuscation | 13:37 |
| psztorc | no it is not | 13:38 |
| amiller | psztorc, the sidechains design makes it quite easy to add new sidechains and get them merge mined too.... can't those also be obfuscated | 13:38 |
| psztorc | miners can mine my own oracle project Truthcoin, and know that it is incentive compatible without checking anything at all | 13:38 |
| psztorc | that is why I brought up the fact that I only expect around 5 or 6 | 13:38 |
| psztorc | miners will censor new sidechains by default | 13:39 |
| psztorc | opposite of Eth | 13:39 |
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| amiller | i see, i guess it's unclear exactly how new sidechains would be launched and how people would decide to mine on them... i can imagine something like a market for new merge-mineable sidechains, and some software that automatically tries to merge mine anything it can without having to manually read its details | 13:43 |
| amiller | or mining pools that compete to merge mine the most stuff possible | 13:44 |
| amiller | i think you're saying that these made up scenarios are unlikely to occur, and miners will either scrutinize possible sidechains to mine, and only mine them once it's clear it's a good idea | 13:44 |
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| psztorc | yes | 13:44 |
| psztorc | miners prefer mining more-valuable Bitcoin to less-valueable Bitcoin | 13:45 |
| rusty | psztorc: But merge mining is "free" so I suspect the level of discernment for miners will be proportionally low. | 13:46 |
| amiller | the above is presumably true for ethereum miners as well... the distinction must be about something other than plain rationality | 13:46 |
| psztorc | rusty: If it were free I would agree, but in the post I argue that it is not free. | 13:46 |
| psztorc | amiller: what is true for ethereum miners as well? | 13:47 |
| amiller | psztorc, that they prefer to mine more-valuable Ether than less-valuable Ether | 13:48 |
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| psztorc | amiller: do you not see a difference, to miners, between A] 3 sidechains each with a 1000 elements, and B] a single chain with 3000 elements? | 13:48 |
| tromp__ | for sidechains with a different PoW, each peg into the sidechain would need to contribute to a sidechain mining fund from which miners can be paid?! | 13:48 |
| psztorc | miners *would* prevent Eth-death if they could, but they cannot (or rather, they can by just not mining Eth and mining something else) | 13:48 |
| psztorc | tromp__: did not understand | 13:49 |
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| tromp__ | i'm just pondering about how sidechains could work with a different PoW | 13:49 |
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| psztorc | I discuss it in the post | 13:50 |
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| psztorc | would you like that in Pegged or in NonPegged? | 13:50 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: a failure to deliver a secure decenteralized system does not result in an immediate market failure, and because of the history of tech progress parties involved in mining seem mostly to have very short term planning horizons. | 13:51 |
| tromp__ | ok, let me go read your oracles article... | 13:51 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: short term enough to 51% attack? : ) | 13:51 |
| gmaxwell | tromp__: I don't understand your question. There is nothing special about making the POW different. | 13:51 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: perhaps not, but certantly short term enough to create tremendous vulnerability to that. Saying "51% attack" is fantastically uninformative, fwiw. | 13:52 |
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| rusty | psztorc: "The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them." Interesting idea, but I fear it's a second-order effect. First order effects will dominate the Ethereum story. | 13:53 |
| gmaxwell | We do have concrete evidence, e.g. ghash with ~30% hashpower being used to pull a finney attack on a bitcoin user to the tune of 1k btc lost. | 13:53 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: I agree, call it what you like, either the miners ban Parasites or they do not. Disabling the oracle is comparable to finney attack. | 13:54 |
| gmaxwell | They claim their systems were compromised. Which actually makes my point: perhaps not so short term to attack on their own, but plenty short term to create huge risk and then "oh no, how supprised we are!" when the risk results in harm. | 13:54 |
| tromp__ | gmaxwell: ah yes, sidechain miners can be incentivized purely by fees, irrespective of PoW | 13:54 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: That is only one user. This is akin to full-scale 51% attack on everyone. | 13:55 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: I'm missing some of the context here, but for many (most?) oracle usage it's possible to make indistinguishable transactions which cannot be preemptively blocked without substantially censoring all usage of the system. | 13:55 |
| psztorc | rusty: did not understand | 13:56 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: on the finney attack it could have been concurrently run against any number of users; but why bother when you can hit one and make 1k btc? :) | 13:56 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: obviously an escalation of the attack to 10-block reorg theft from everyone is much harder to get away with | 13:57 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: unclear. _After_ the attack I spoke about, that pools' hashrate continued to go up for months until it had roughly half the network hashrate. | 13:58 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: re "censoring whole system" that is the point I'm trying to make, the inter-relationships will pool up into rare big individual chains | 13:58 |
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| psztorc | gmaxwell: you're saying a mining pool can deliberately cause a 10-block reorg, steal tons of money, and remain in business / not be whacked? If so, why don't we see this more often? | 13:59 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: It's important to be crisp here: An absense of attacks is not evidence of security except in the weakest possible sense. One of the reasons for this is activation energy (e.g. takes effort to evaluate, plan, and pull off an attack). | 14:01 |
| gmaxwell | In the example I gave for ghash-- they orphaned tons of blocks, performing 1-deep conflicts would be quite easy for them, and yet they didn't even while controlled by an actively malicious party. Why not? There were lower hanging fruit. | 14:02 |
| tromp__ | are there any online graphs of reorg lengths (at least those > 1) over time? | 14:03 |
| psztorc | gmaxwell: "An absense of attacks is not evidence of security except in the weakest possible sense." Interesting, this is probably the first time I disagree with you. | 14:04 |
| gmaxwell | Most of the large mining pools right now own lots (likely most; hard to say) of their own hashpower; the only "wacked" mechensim generally available against such a party is changing the POW algorithim. | 14:04 |
| psztorc | The environment/context in which this stuff takes place is so complex that I reject analytic solutions categorically. | 14:04 |
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| gmaxwell | psztorc: I have a lot of information which is not generally available publically on that subject which may contribute to a difference in perspective. | 14:05 |
| gmaxwell | (I am not discounting your view on that basis, but just observing it as a potential source of disagreement) | 14:05 |
| psztorc | An absence of attacks *is* evidence of security (how strong depends on the "motive and opportunity"), and motive can be epistemologically unmeasureable. | 14:06 |
| psztorc | is some* evidence | 14:06 |
| gmaxwell | It is a very weak and high variance evidence, at best I think. But yes, not zero evidence-- if nothing else than because of obvious reasons. | 14:07 |
| psztorc | Motive is hard but that's the great thing about this anonymous e-cash | 14:07 |
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| gmaxwell | at the end of the day criminality is very costly. Even if enforcement is weak, it is alienating. Humans are not simple income maximizers. I could have likely extracted many millions of dollars of income from vulnerabilities I have discovered, but among the costs of that (including substantial risks from slipups getting me caught), I couldn't really be friends with any of you... and I view that | 14:09 |
| gmaxwell | as much more valuable than the money. | 14:09 |
| psztorc | Ok, and we're all very grateful. | 14:10 |
| kanzure | his point isn't that you should be grateful, but rather that others might not make the same tradeoffs he has picked for himself | 14:11 |
| gmaxwell | yea, sure, well it's also true for many other people, I'm not saying I'm special. In any case, just pointing out that motivational structures weaken attacks as a security measure. | 14:11 |
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| kanzure | fwiw you should have picked the money, all you'll get from me is a bunch of lousy bookmark linkspam and some under-reviewed source code :-) | 14:11 |
| gmaxwell | Another example is brainwallets, we have clear evidence that people who crack brainwallets intentionally avoid sweeping small amounts (And even coordinate among each other) in order to avoid alerting users prematurely. | 14:12 |
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| psztorc | Now that I really can't believe. | 14:12 |
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| psztorc | There's no way that coordination like that can be sustained. | 14:12 |
| gmaxwell | It's true! whats really awesome is that sometimes you see them sending messages to each other using the bc.i message feature "Hey idiots, don't sweet tiny amounts or else the users won't put real amounts in!" | 14:13 |
| kanzure | psztorc: if you sweep a small amount too early, you might miss out on larger deposits | 14:13 |
| phantomcircuit | gmaxwell, that's not true anymore; but it certainly was true | 14:13 |
| psztorc | Of course you might, but who decides who gets the larger deposit? | 14:13 |
| gmaxwell | dunno if it's sustainable... but you'll see addresses that previously had a stream of very small deposits then an orgy of replace-by-fee going after large deposits. | 14:13 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: they bid with replace by fee! | 14:13 |
| psztorc | And as the larger deposits get Prisoner's Dillemma'ed, how can it not unwind to the smaller deposits | 14:14 |
| gmaxwell | or at least try to. | 14:14 |
| phantomcircuit | that happened recently with the coinwallet.eu stuff | 14:14 |
| phantomcircuit | a bunch of people were fee sniping each other in a loop with replace by fee | 14:14 |
| phantomcircuit | the huge spike to 240k transactions/day on bc.i and other sites was from them connecting to a replace by fee node and observing this | 14:14 |
| psztorc | That would not be coordination, though. It is actually the opposite. | 14:15 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: the coordination is on not sweeping tiny amounts. | 14:15 |
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| gmaxwell | I suspect it works because of non-linear utility... who cares about a few 0.00001 amounts of whatever.. plus the fact that common brainwallet usage seems to be making a few very small test payments... so it's a very good strategy for everyone to delay. | 14:16 |
| kanzure | and once you sweep a tiny amount, you have to wait until a not-previously-used brainwallet gets used in the future | 14:16 |
| psztorc | I know but if they plan to betray each other in Round 2, and no one can be sure they'll win Round 2, why would they bother cooperating in Round 1 (given the uncertain nature of even reaching a Round 2)? | 14:16 |
| kanzure | and also, those that dissent from this coordination are unlikely to stay around long enough to get the income to have larger brainwallet cracking farms, although i don't think we have seen this effect play out yet | 14:16 |
| gmaxwell | psztorc: because the gain in round 1 is so small that the round 2 payoff, even with all of its uncertanty is still better. | 14:17 |
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| psztorc | Ok, but I feel a little bit like a victim of bait-and-switch here | 14:17 |
| psztorc | I was promised amazing high-cost coordination among anonymous e-cash thieves | 14:18 |
| gmaxwell | hah | 14:18 |
| psztorc | : ) | 14:19 |
| _biO_ | is the recent 21.co launch an appropriate topic for this channel? | 14:19 |
| gmaxwell | Another point about attacks is that the people with the skill needed to pull off complex technical attacks can easily satisify their money related needs without resorting to anti-social or clearly unlawful activities; and I suspect that causes a motivational change towards non-money incentives. | 14:19 |
| gmaxwell | _biO_: sure, or at least technical discussion related to it. | 14:20 |
| _biO_ | what's your takeaway? | 14:20 |
| phantomcircuit | _biO_, that they have 0.16J/Gh chips | 14:21 |
| phantomcircuit | :P | 14:21 |
| MRL-Relay | [tacotime] is the ECDSA hardware accelerated in the device? | 14:21 |
| kanzure | "They plan to charge money to people's electricity bills and pay no fee" but really, just put a wallet on a chip, pay to the wallet out of the funds collected by selling the device, problem solved and no mining required. fwiw i don't think this is a very wizardly topic. | 14:22 |
| psztorc | 21.co, making everyone a bitcoin node (yet without? informed consent) | 14:22 |
| kanzure | ("21 can issue those people a credit line secured by the ability to charge arbitrary, limited amounts to their electricity bills") | 14:22 |
| MRL-Relay | [tacotime] Well, I mean, I'd love to read about a hardware implementation of secp256k1 signing/verification. But as far as I can tell these things just hash. | 14:23 |
| MRL-Relay | [tacotime] Not a lot has come out on that aside from that 2012 paper afaik. | 14:24 |
| gmaxwell | tacotime: I don't think hardware acceleration of that is really all that interesting. | 14:25 |
| MRL-Relay | [tacotime] I guess I'm mostly interested in performance, but yeah, the algorithms are probably all from 20+ years ago. | 14:26 |
| gmaxwell | Mostly because worst case verification is an important system metric in a way that best case isn't. If you want fast ECDSA verify, haswell chips await you already. :) | 14:27 |
| MRL-Relay | [tacotime] Right, that makes sense. | 14:27 |
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| gmaxwell | also there is likely a lot of room left on arm for software optimization. | 14:28 |
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| gmaxwell | On 64bit arches libsecp256k1 is perhaps spitting distance from as fast as its going to go, but on 32-bit arm I wouldn't be shocked to see another 2x speedup (e.g. from using the SIMD units). | 14:28 |
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| phantomcircuit | gmaxwell, 2x from wumpus's asm branch or 2x from master? | 14:46 |
| gmaxwell | phantomcircuit: the former. (wumpus' asm itself is ~2x, at least on a8) | 14:50 |
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| phantomcircuit | ok so 4x from master | 14:50 |
| phantomcircuit | yeah that seems reasonably likely | 14:51 |
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| STRML | Am I completely crazy or has 21 Inc just wasted $125MM | 15:05 |
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| phantomcircuit | STRML, that is definitely off topic :P | 15:07 |
| bsm1175321 | I'm sure it's being discussed in #bitcoin | 15:08 |
| STRML | Yeah, probably. From a tech standpoint it seems completely crazy in any case. | 15:08 |
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| kanzure | "A critique of the CAP theorem" http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.05393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10253711 | 16:28 |
| kanzure | "Well, guaranteed consistency requires coordination and if your coordination mechanism is over a network, then the speed of your writes will be multiple factors of your network latency." | 16:28 |
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| CodeShark | kanzure: it seems that paper isn't so much criticising the CAP theorem itself but rather issues with lack of precise terminology | 17:18 |
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| phantomcircuit | kanzure, yes there's a direct trade off between disaster resilience and write latency | 17:30 |
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| wumpus | yes there is qutie some scope for optmizing secp256k1 on ARM further, I was surprised that asm-optimizing one function had tht much impact | 23:46 |
| wumpus | quite* | 23:46 |
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| --- Log closed Tue Sep 22 00:00:35 2015 | ||
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