--- Log opened Sat Nov 07 00:00:18 2015
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02:50 < kanzure> hmph
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03:38 < nsh> .title http://www.e-flux.com/journal/death-wall-extinction-entropy-singularity/
03:38 < yoleaux> Death Wall: Extinction, Entropy, Singularity | e-flux
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03:46 < ButaTine> kanzure, did you dwell on my questions about social pressure, RE: agency motivation
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06:18 < kanzure> ButaTine: brainwashing? yes. just need elaborate 10-12 hour pow-wow.
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06:43 < kanzure> since lesswrong has banned me, i'll just have to ask here: what's the name of the concept they know which goes like "when thinking about a thing, you should choose the thoughts that you would have regardless of your actual context"?
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06:50 < kanzure> "the sum of the probabilities of the data in all possible hypotheses"
06:50 < kanzure> hmm that's not quite what i was thinking
06:52 < kanzure> not bayesian inference either
06:53 < kanzure> http://lesswrong.com/lw/54u/bayesian_epistemology_vs_popper/
06:54 < kanzure> "Popper's philosophy is not falsificationism, it was never the most popular, and it is fallibilist: it says ideas cannot be definitely falsified. It's bad to make this kind of mistake about what a rival's basic claims are when claiming to be dethroning him. The correct method of dethroning a rival philosophy involves understanding what it does say and criticizing that."
06:56 < kanzure> "A pretty good overview is the Popper book by Bryan Magee (only like 100 pages)."
06:56 < kanzure> http://fallibleideas.com/
06:58 < kanzure> "As you can see, justification leads to an infinite regress. There is no end to the justifications needed. The way out of this mess is to stop seeking justifications at all. Instead, we can pursue knowledge as I describe it above: imperfect but useful ideas, which we don't claim are justified, but we do improve as much as we can, and remove as many errors as we can from. In this way, our knowledge is our best ideas so far. What's wrong ...
06:58 < kanzure> ... with that? A common question is if we don't accept justifications, then how can we ever take practical action when we don't have a justified, true belief about which action is best. This is easy. We should act on our best ideas. What else would we do? Act on ideas we consider inferior?"
07:04 < kanzure> "OK so regresses are a nasty problem. They totally ruin all justificationist epistemologies. That's basically every epistemology anyone cares about except skepticism and Popperian epistemology. And forget about skepticism, that's more of an anti-epistemology than an epistemology: skepticism consists of giving up on knowledge." well that doesn't seem right.. hm.
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07:07 < kanzure> this is a very strange step-by-step breakdown of popperian epistemology http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/551/popperian_decision_making/
07:11 < kanzure> i sort of disagree with "Astrology also conflicts with "our ideas". That is not in itself a compelling reason to brush up on our astrology." because you should be able to refute astrology, not just ignore it.
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07:17 < kanzure> "Justification is a mistake. The request that theories be justified is a mistake. They can't be. They don't need to be." hrmm
07:34 < kanzure> the focus on criticism there is odd; probably they are using a different meaning than "critical theory" nonsense.
07:34 < kanzure> well anyway; that's still not the thing i wanted. :-(
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08:44 < kanzure> "eliminating some of the unchosen alternatives shouldn't affect the selection of x as the best option" (independence of irrelevant alternatives)
08:44 < kanzure> er... close? maybe?
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08:49 < kanzure> oh geeze i think the thing i was looking for might be "timeless decision theory"
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09:07 < kanzure> oh interesting, perhaps that idea was actually from wei dai http://lesswrong.com/lw/334/another_attempt_to_explain_udt/
09:08 < kanzure> "At the core, Wei Dai's idea is to boldly proclaim that, counterintuitively, you can act as if there were no fact of the matter whether it's Monday or Tuesday when you wake up. Until you learn which it is, you think it's both. You're all your copies at once. When you're faced with a decision, you find all copies of you in the entire "multiverse" that are faced with the same decision ("information set"), and choose the decision that ...
09:08 < kanzure> ... logically implies the maximum sum of resulting utilities weghted by universe-weight. If you possess some useful information about the universe you're in, it's magically taken into account by the choice of "information set", because logically, your decision cannot affect the universes that contain copies of you with different states of knowledge, so they only add a constant term to the utility maximization."
09:12 < kanzure> "Steve Rayhawk also figured out that it had to do with impossible possible worlds."
09:13 < kanzure> i sorta doubt i picked this up from wei dai
09:15 < kanzure> "AFAIK, Timeless Decision Theory doesn't have anything to say about the reality of time, only that decisions shouldn't vary depending on the time when they are considered." well yes.. and most contexts. but this does not seem to be explicit here.
09:15 < kanzure> seems that i am even more confused than before i looked, i regret everything
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10:19 < maaku> hahahaha
10:20 < maaku> kanzure: TDT actually makes sense when you look at how it works. to Yudkowsky's credit it is actually explained in terms of probabalistic graphical models
10:20 < maaku> UDT on the other hand I'm still trying to get a constructivist understanding of, because it's only really explained in a hand-wavy philosophical way
10:21 < maaku> and yes to your original question, it is TDT you are thinking of
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10:23 < maaku> also on the topic of LW, wonderful quote from hairyfigment: "Option 3: most human beings would (at best) drug inconvenient people into submission if they had the power, and the ones talking as if we had a known way to avoid this are the ones who look naive."
10:23 < maaku> (he knows what's up)
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10:30 < bfproxy> Hello.
10:31 < bfproxy> Nobody talks in this channel why?
10:31 < maaku> i just did, like 7 minutes ago
10:32 < maaku> bfproxy: see the logs in the topic
10:33 < bfproxy> I was not here 7 minutes ago.
10:47 < bfproxy> Post another topic pls.
10:47 < bfproxy> So I can join.
10:47 < kanzure> type /topic
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11:44 < QuadIngi> kanzure, tCDS paper I read before: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0028393210002319
11:46 < QuadIngi> also kanzure, do you have an answer to my earlier question about what exact forms of social pressure motivated you?
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13:24 < FourFire> > i sort of disagree with "Astrology also conflicts with "our ideas". That is not in itself a compelling reason to brush up on our astrology." because you should be able to refute astrology, not just ignore it.
13:25 < FourFire> I sort of disagree with being forced to be able to refute everything if you have better things to do
13:26 < kanzure> huh? the refutation is simple: "i have better things to be doing at the moment, and i'm not going to check until later"
13:27 < FourFire> "No I don't want to learn the precise etymology and politically correct social sustainability chains of logic in order to tell you why the fact that you pretend to be offended by people not taking your "voidfluid" gender tag seriously is complete bullshit"
13:28 < FourFire> kanzure, cool, if that qualifies then I can save soo much time (which I already do) without feeling guilty about it (which I presently do).
13:28 < kanzure> which thing do you feel guilty about in particular?
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13:29 < FourFire> kanzure, have you thought up some concrete forms of social pressure which work in making you more productive?
13:29 < kanzure> are you asking multiple times as some elaborate form of joke? what's wrong with the other four times i've answered?
13:30 < FourFire> guilt: not being intellectually rigorous in deciding which people are so far below the sanity waterline as to be a toxic use of my time, and therefore not even giving them a chance to argue otherwise (not that they would)
13:30 < kanzure> i have mentioned brainwashing, peer shaming, and getting better friends.
13:31 < kanzure> FourFire: so you feel guilty that you don't treat yourself well...?
13:31 < FourFire> (I just mass categorize vast swathes of people as "not worth my time this century")
13:32 < FourFire> peer shaming + getting higher quality peers/friends seem to be interlinked
13:32 < FourFire> I'm attempting to encourage singrana to become higher status so that they can rightfully shame me into doing the same...
13:33 < FourFire> (I have mild hopes that a boot strapping towards our mutual "potential" can ensue)
13:33 < kanzure> status is the only way you can be shamed? what about by reasoning.
13:33 < FourFire> quick example?
13:34 < kanzure> "you should feel bad because you are over-estimating the utility of protein folding simulations" with slightly more teeth
13:35 < FourFire> (at times I have tried to drop a couple of reality filters: realizing in part how fucked up the world is, and in turn realized that I wouldn't be able to sustain such a point of view for extended time without... mental damage)
13:36 < FourFire> so yeah most accute forms of shaming fall back into me admitting that I am  insufficiently competent to overcome $challenge
13:38 < FourFire> yes, for your example: "I am unlikely to do anything of significant utility for others within my lifetime, so it's no big waste if my longterm project comes to nothing, because it will mean that the possibility has been explored without absorbing a different scientist of greater capability" (which would have happened if I didn't do this)
13:38 < kanzure> challenges don't have agency and they don't check your competence level
13:39 < FourFire> of course the above view is very defeatist, and just now I realize I can feel some mental block there somewhere, but I don't currently know what shape it is :/
13:39 < kanzure> when others claim that they have some innate difference that allows them to handle something that you "can't", you should be extremely skeptical. these sorts of things are very hard to know, i think it's also known as the genetic fallacy or something.
13:40 < kanzure> nope wrong fallacy "A Genetic Fallacy is a line of "reasoning" in which a perceived defect in the origin of a claim or thing is taken to be evidence that discredits the claim or thing itself."
13:40 < FourFire> Oh, well I claim the opposite: that I am innately not capable for some reason
13:40 < Pompolic> "Are you a bad enough dude to rescue the president"
13:41 < FourFire> You could call it, a false attribtuion bias, with my whole life as the observation period
13:42 < FourFire> but damnit, I care about things and want to fix my failings if they can be fixed!
13:43 < kanzure> "someone else will do it" is true sometimes but not always. and whether someone else does a "thing" doesn't really matter, since this isn't a game about who can do unique things or whatever.
13:44 < TMA> FourFire: earlier, you have admitted to drop your reality filters sometimes only to reinstate them later to prevent possible mental damage. I would like to know, whether you have some method/technique to reinstating the filters
13:45 < FourFire> TMA, simple: I just admit that my model of reality is incoherent, and intentionally doublethink about everything
13:46 < FourFire> I have a strong belief in the optimization power of evolutionary systems, terrible designers though they may be, they are good at producing things which can survive
13:46 < TMA> FourFire: does the "intentional doublethink" mean that the filterless state keeps popping out spontaneously?
13:47 < kanzure> all biological things die. they don't survive at all. and there's a huge amount of mutation from one generation to the next.
13:47 < FourFire> My mind is a product of evolution, and arguably, one of the more advanced systems produced by earth evolution
13:47 < kanzure> immune systems are fairly complex
13:48 < FourFire> TMA, only if I encourage it; I tend not to dwell on it, I don't need to, but I do strongly fear becoming mentally incapacitated, say from drugs, because I have already decided that being in a state of "having a better model" is mentally unhealthy with my current ability to change the world.
13:48 < TMA> FourFire: I do ask because my more bothersome dropped filters keep themselves dropped to a crippling effect.
13:49 < FourFire> I imagine that being trapped, in a "more real" state of observing reality would be unpleasant.
13:49 < FourFire> TMA, that's unfortunate, do you feel a moral requirement to keep it that way, or are you adequately selfish enough to protect your mind even if it means a detriment to the rest of humanity?
13:51 < FourFire> kanzure, yes, sure, it's a terrible design, but it works better than previous designs, on average, and there is hope that the current generations will be able to modify themselves sufficiently.
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13:53 < TMA> FourFire: It has never occured to me to pose it as a question of selfishness. It might be even helpful. Thank you.
13:54 < FourFire> TMA, if it helps, imagine that you being mentally healthy means you can be more productive in working on the most important goals, even if you don't see them clearly 100% of the time.
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14:00 < FourFire> kanzure, I'm not sure what you imply by saying " "someone else will do it" is true sometimes but not always. and whether someone else does a "thing" doesn't really matter"
14:01 < FourFire> I meant to say before that, that by pursuing (perhaps too fervently) genetic algorithms of protein simulations (which I don't believe I really am, actually) I'm taking up the space of someone who is doing that.
14:02 < FourFire> if I wasn't then maybe someone else, who could be of more use, working on something else would be doing it instead (and if it's a dead end, like you seem to partially imply, then that would be a bad thing)
14:11 < TMA> FourFire: you doing something does not prevent others doing the same
14:12 < FourFire> TMA, yes, I noticed that I was working under this assumption without realizing it until I said it.
14:14 < FourFire> If it was well publicised amongst the transhumanist/radical medical research community that "people are already working on this" then perhaps some potential researchers would be encouraged to either work on something else which is going unexplored, or cooperate with the existing researchers.
14:14 < FourFire> but I'm hardly advertising it at all, so that point is irrelevant.
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14:21 < FourFire> kanzure, I talked to that quantum physicist I know, he claims to have made a breakthrough in intelligent searches through designspace, is this a topic of interest to you?
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15:36 < fenn> "choose the thoughts that you would have regardless of your actual context" just sounds like being aware of your cognitive biases and correcting for them
15:38 < fenn> otherwise it might be some kind of over-generalizing rule following tendency
15:40 < kanzure> not just cognitive biases, but also contextual things like "why would it possibly matter what day of the week it happens to be" or "hey we could have thought of this idea like 80 years ago but we didn't, and the reason why not are all a bunch of mundane trivial boring reasons"
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15:43 < fenn> you want foresight for free
15:44 < fenn> there are a lot of things that could be thought about; people tend to think about the things that are important to them
15:44 < fenn> this introduces an immediacy bias; things that you can affect immediately seem more important because of hyperbolic discounting
15:45 < fenn> as a result we tend not to think about far future concerns
15:45 < kanzure> that would be nice
15:45 < kanzure> i'd also take very cheap foresight costs
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15:45 < kanzure> jojack sent me the clinical trial seat selling idea link because i was asking about funding mechanisms for very long-term projects
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15:46 < fenn> with your cryo example, we could have been breeding humans for cryo since the 1860's or whatever but there was enough uncertainty about the future that any possibly concern that cryo might not be difficult is immediately handwaved away with magic future technology
15:47 < kanzure> huh? you mean like how people handwave "well once we have molecular nanotech robots in our bloodstream..... in 30 years..." ?
15:47 < fenn> but there are a zillion more pressing things to breed humans for and those were what got promoted first
15:47 < kanzure> and then use this as an excuse to not bother with $hardstuff
15:47 < TMA> in a sense really long term foresight is trivial -- there is not much interesting happening after the thermal death of the universe
15:47 < fenn> yeah except back then it was like "in 1990 pluto will be exporting unobtanium so spaceships can travel at 10 times the speed of light"
15:48 < kanzure> 1860s?
15:48 < fenn> well SF had not really taken off in the 1860's
15:48 < fenn> i guess worries about a malthusian explosion was the futurism of the day (?)
15:49 < kanzure> oh right, and 1860s because, darwin stuff, etc.
15:49 < fenn> because refrigeration was invented around then
15:49 < kanzure> origin of species was 1859 hehe
15:51 < fenn> 1850s vapor compression refrigerators were commercialized
15:53 < fenn> well they had lamarcke before darwin so it still could have made sense to try selective breeding
15:54 < fenn> probably also lots of cold bath exercises too
15:54 < kanzure> when did egg/embryo freezing happen?
15:54 < fenn> 1949
15:54 < kanzure> hm!
15:55 < fenn> "Controlled-rate and slow freezing are well established techniques pioneered in the early 1970s which enabled the first human embryo frozen birth (Zoe Leyland) in 1984."
15:55 < fenn> heh Zoe
15:55 < fenn> .ety zoe
15:55 < yoleaux> Zoe: "fem. proper name, Greek, literally "life" (see zoo-)." — http://etymonline.com/index.php?term=Zoe
15:56 < kanzure> maybe we were freezing cell lines earlier than 1949
15:56 < kanzure> i sure hope so
15:57 < kanzure> wikipedia article on "petri dish" is very short. worse than random high school essay on history of petri dish.
15:57 < fenn> timeline of cryobiology: http://cryobiology.synthasite.com/history.php
15:58 < fenn> wow this is terrible, nevermind
15:59 < kanzure> .wik Julius Richard Petri
15:59 < yoleaux> "Julius Richard Petri (May 31, 1852 – December 20, 1921) was a German microbiologist who is generally credited with inventing the device known as the Petri dish after him, while working as assistant to bacteriologist Robert Koch." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Richard_Petri
15:59 < kanzure> seems around 1880 they might have been refrigerating petri dishes?
16:00 < kanzure> " In 1881, Koch decided to try growing bacteria on solid media so he could more easily separate (and, more importantly, clearly observe and identify) different strains of bacteria in a single culture. He initially used gelatin spread on a flat piece of glass. However, in 1887 his assistant Petri made the advance of using a flat, coverable dish which they soon developed into the object we are familiar with today"
16:00 < kanzure> "However, the dish may have been invented slightly earlier by a Slavonian scientist named Emanuel Klein (1844-1925) who did his research in England. Klein had written a then-influential textbook titled Micro-organisms and Disease. The third edition of the book was written in 1885 and contained a description of a dish nearly identical to the one Petri was supposed to have invented."
16:01 < fenn> fascinating~
16:01 < kanzure> well, i only mention this because presumably you would think "what about freezing other components" if you are storing bacteria in a freezer.
16:02 < fenn> i don't know why you think they were storing bacteria in a freezer
16:02 < kanzure> uh, where do you store your bacteria?
16:03 < fenn> you stab a needle into a vial full of nutrient agar and the bacteria colonize the agar under the surface
16:03 < fenn> on the shelf
16:03 < kanzure> you store dishes in the freezer and then you thaw when you want to continue with your colonies
16:03 < fenn> no
16:03 < kanzure> otherwise the colonies die
16:03 < kanzure> or interfere with each other
16:03 < kanzure> or you accidentally breath on them
16:04 < kanzure> the shelf. hmph.
16:04 < kanzure> for your amusement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insect_winter_ecology
16:04 < fenn> we never put bacterial colonies in the refrigerator for storage, fwiw
16:05 < fenn> sometimes it was done for the purpose of getting cells at the right stage of life cycle so they would grow faster when you were ready to start (this was more important with yeast)
16:08 < kanzure> well, okay
16:08 < kanzure> i don't think that lamarckian evolution + refrigerators would have been enough
16:08 < kanzure> (for the idea)
16:09 < fenn> if i were alive in the 1860's i'd probably agree that unobtanium would negate the need for cryobiology in spaceflight and we should have conquered aging and disease by then too
16:10 < fenn> IN THE YEAR 2000...
16:10 < kanzure> yeah human civilization can be pretty disappointing
16:11 < kanzure> to be fair, once uploading works at all, or any form of brain scanning, or any form of brain emulation, most cryobiology is going to be unnecessary except for actual biological transport reasons (like terraforming or whatever)
16:12 < kanzure> wait am i committing the same error
16:13 < fenn> yes
16:13 < kanzure> i feel like since i am more pessimistic about instantaneous travel that i get a pass on this being the same kind of error
16:14 < fenn> people love magic bullets
16:15 < kanzure> yeah i keep buying those as gifts for
16:15 < kanzure> oh you mean the other kind
16:15 < fenn> once ___ works at all, ____ is going to be totally unnecessary
16:15 < fenn> in practice, technology stays around forever
16:16 < kanzure> once semiconductors work, abacuses are going to be totally unnecessary
16:16 < fenn> people still use abacuses :\
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16:17 < fenn> anyway you shouldn't just look at the benefits of a new technology and completely ignore its downsides when making predictions about what the future will look like
16:18 < fenn> lots of people will refuse to get their brain sliced into pickled sushi topping
16:18 < kanzure> well if it works at all i would imagine very long (or unlimited) recovery period because that shit's gonna bust you up
16:18 < fenn> better than being "dead"
16:18 < fenn> "digitally undead"
16:19 < kanzure> preliminary afterlife trial period, would be called second life but that trademark's already taken
16:21 < kanzure> mike darwin expressed a lot of concern about half-life and radiation damage and decay
16:24 < fenn> yeah
16:24 < fenn> chain reactions are a bitch
16:24 < fenn> (free radical damage from radiation)
16:26 < fenn> dear self, i'm really living it up here in elysia pro 2.0 enjoying views of synthetic vistas and maximizing utility per processor cycle
16:27 < fenn> u should totes sign up for ever
16:27 < fenn> sincereley, - me
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16:50 < FourFire> "<fenn> you want foresight for free" I think to some extent, with active exploratory thought you can get some for free.
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16:51 < FourFire> that's how I eventually broke myself of becoming a complete conspiritard/free energy nut
16:53 < fenn> i think you just disproved yourself
16:55 < FourFire> well not for free obviously, but cheaply
16:55 < FourFire> fenn, why is your site's version of permutation city truncated?
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17:21 < kanzure> probably a philosophical statement by greg egan about the nature of recursion or something like that
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17:38 < kanzure> he claimed to have a solution to various half-life problems, but i wasn't typing that conversation and i don't remember
17:40 < kanzure> what happened to "send mostly robots" that makes cryonics suddenly better for interstellar travel?
17:45 < kanzure> for an upload convincing outsiders about the veracity of claims you could use pgp and multi-party computation protocols, like outsourcing a fraction of the computations to another computing cluster for verification. or you can use obfuscated garbled circuits so that you can have reasonable assurances that the cloud environment is not modifying your software.
17:46 < kanzure> in the multi-party signing schemes and multi-party computation schemes, it is important that the other parties aren't on the same cloud platform thingy
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17:56 < maaku> kanzure: many of those schemes are like 10k less efficient than the actual computation though
17:57 < kanzure> i dunno if that's a good excuse!
17:57 < kanzure> if you have trusted hardware..... but who has trusted hardware?
17:58 < maaku> we do :)
17:59 < kanzure> maaku: does it get weird working with so many people that hate ducktyping?
18:00 < maaku> at first .. but I think they've won me over
18:01 < kanzure> i still prefer ducktyping, but i also prefer software that can be written in a single day and is as simple as possible
18:01 < kanzure> correctness has its place but surely not all software has that requirement?
18:01 < kanzure> if users are going to shoot themselves in the foot, let them. they should have read your source code anyway.
18:02 < kanzure> and if foot shooting is still happening, that sounds like a bug in the api or lack of simplicity or lack of communication of what your pile of code is really supposed to do.... not a typing issue.
18:02 < maaku> it's a failing of current software dev infrastructure that we can't write correct, strongly typed software as fast or faster than we write ductaped Python
18:03 < maaku> but yeah my coworkers are a bit too anti-ducktyping
18:03 < maaku> "this damn thing isn't working ... oh because it's written in Python"
18:03 < maaku> ...
18:03 < kanzure> andytoshi unfriended me after hearing my opinions here the other day over dinner :-)
18:04 < maaku> re: typing?
18:04 < maaku> andytoshi needs to get off his high rust horse :P
18:04 < maaku> (and try Haskell :P )
18:05 < andytoshi> :P
18:05 < kanzure> petertodd writes good python
18:06 < andytoshi> i have tried haskell
18:06 < andytoshi> i find it very slow to write. i understand there is some sort of hump i have to get over
18:06 < kanzure> i think most people just learn haskell by necessity after switching to xmonad
18:07 < andytoshi> heh, my window manager config is in .... python
18:07 < kanzure> hilarious
18:07 < andytoshi> oh, no, it's in bash
18:08 < andytoshi> i used to have a python one and it'd leak memory somehow
18:20 < maaku> in all seriousness it is a seductive and plausible argument that we are in the midst of a security apocalypse right now, and verifiable computing is the only real hope of a way out
18:21 < maaku> it's just got a long, long ways to go..
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18:23 < JayDugger> maaku, how long ago did you first hear that argument?
18:24 < maaku> well the idea is very old but I think undeniable evidence for it only really showed up post-Snowden
18:25 < maaku> although the real issue isn't just adversarial security but also just plain old reliability
18:25 < maaku> JayDugger: here's the link I've been sending people to recently https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca0DWaV9uNc
18:26 < JayDugger> Thank you. Those are fair points, but I hoped you'd answer with a date.
18:27 < JayDugger> Or a duration.
18:29 < maaku> the distant mists of time? it's an idea that's older than I am, and I can't remember not being aware of it
18:31 < maaku> i mean verifiable computing research is a bunch of old farts on porch chairs saying "ducktyping? you're going to shoot your eye out kid!" and then being proven right 30+ years later
18:32 < maaku> it's just not been a realistic prospect until the last few years, now that we have verified compilers, microkernels, and CPUs
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18:35 < kanzure> .title
18:35 < yoleaux> Why are computers so @#!*, and what can we do about it? [31c3] - YouTube
18:36 < JayDugger> Great title.
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18:47 < kanzure> wonder how old the oldest polymerase molecule happens to be. their half-life can't be zero, after all..
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