--- Log opened Tue Dec 22 00:00:43 2015
00:11 < superkuh> Heh. Interesting. I feel the same way about people who have had children.
00:15 < maaku> Eh.. maybe my point didn't get across. Two points actually:
00:17 < maaku> (1) A part of transhumanism deals with either creating minds (AI) or hive minds, or otherwise enabling or constraining the capabilities of future intelligences, often with concern for desireable outcomes.
00:18 < maaku> There is a segment of the population who already has experience creating new minds and guiding towards desirable outcomes: parents. Non-parents talking about things like friendlyness in AI or hive minds or whatever is a bit like virgins talking about sex.
00:20 < superkuh> I'm not sure I believe the premise that there'll be an equivalence between strong AI and children. People who have children are compromised in the sense that they'll do almost anything, even irrational things, to do what they perceive as protecting them.
00:20 < maaku> (2) Having the responsibility for caring for and guiding development another human life changes your ethics and priorities. You become a different person with different priorities after bonding with a child you are responsible for..
00:20 < pompolic> what if (2) is bad
00:20 < superkuh> Yes, exactly #2. They become compromised.
00:21 < pompolic> sounds like you're just switching to a different set of biases
00:21 < pompolic> actually disregard that last sentence; that's insufficient justification
00:21 < maaku> Exactly. I am a parent, btw, so I'm suspect of the judgement of those who are not.
00:22 < maaku> not different biases, different base values
00:24 < maaku> superkuh: the flip side is that a parent would take seriously protective measures to prevent their kids from becoming AI-food
00:24 < maaku> and not take risks a nihilist might
00:26 < maaku> So yeah, if someone tells me they are "childfree" and just got their tubes tied, yes I'll second-guess their ability to effectively and safely reason about exitential risks
00:26 < maaku> They've got no skin in the game.
00:26 < pompolic> what if they want to live forever
00:27 < maaku> pompolic: what's that a response to?
00:27 < pompolic> counterargument to having no skin in the game
00:28 < maaku> pompolic: ah but it is human nature to have a higher threshold for risk taking when it's just yourself on th eline
00:29 < superkuh> And for parents to hold back progress in order to create stability for their offspring.
00:30 < pompolic> seems like you want parents if you want to make type 1 errors and nihilists if you want to make type 2 errors
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01:07 < fenn> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proactionary_principle
01:16 < maaku> fenn: ?
01:22 < Diablo-D3> and what if we dont want to make mistakes at all?
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01:23 < Diablo-D3> http://zerocarbzen.com/2015/12/21/zero-carb-interview-matt-shepherd/
01:25 < pompolic> Diablo-D3: precisely. i was being flippant
01:32 < Diablo-D3> http://www.biochemsoctrans.org/content/28/6/883.long
01:34 < Diablo-D3> http://www.biochemsoctrans.org/content/ppbiost/28/6/883.full.pdf
01:34 < Diablo-D3> actually there, the full pdf
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04:26 < pasky> maaku: there's plenty of people who are pretty bad parents and don't care much for their kids, and there's plenty of people who care deeply about this world or other people in it even if they don't have children; and I actually suspect the proportions are so large that parenthood carries little information in the end
04:27 < maaku> pasky: I doubt that. But what can I say? "If you were a parent you'd understand." Not helpful so I'll stop engaging.
04:29 < pasky> fair enough :)
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05:55 < kanzure> "Bitcoin's mining difficulty has increased by 41.9% over the last 30 days" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10774204
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07:20 < gnusha_> https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=96844c4b Bryan Bishop: fix sipa's name >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/gmaxwell-sidechains-elements/
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08:35 < AdrianG> kanzure: is it even possible for a nation state to 51% attack?
08:39 < kanzure> selfish mining showed how you don't even need 51%, you need ~33% ish
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09:10 < AdrianG> well.
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09:11 < AdrianG> we could be being attacked with 33% right now then. there is an "unknown" pool of 18%
09:15 < maaku> bitfury is brining online a data center with hashing capability equal to the entire bitcoin network as of a few weeks ago
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09:21 < xrr> I would think it is at least easy to recognize the attack. Top of the current chain gets replaced
09:27 < kanzure> that's not so easy to recognize; that's normal bitcoin blockchain behavior. although lots of reorgs are less normal. but there probably wouldn't be that many reorgs even in an attack scenario like this.
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09:33 < kanzure> .title https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10777505
09:33 < yoleaux> Camera Zapping: Using Lasers to Temporarily Neutralize Cameras | Hacker News
09:39 < xrr> Hmm, wouldn't time make a difference though? Normal differences would sync up quickly, wouldn't grow beyond a block or two, while a double spender would bury a transaction with some ten blocks to get a purchase confirmed and then remove the transaction. No?
09:50 < maaku> xrr: there are many more attacks than that
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10:04 < AdrianG>  archels: degrees of consciousness? like coma scales?
10:11 < archels> yeah, exactly that
10:11 < archels> .wik Glasgow coma scale
10:11 < yoleaux> "The Glasgow Coma Scale or GCS is a neurological scale that aims to give a reliable, objective way of recording the conscious state of a person for initial as well as subsequent assessment." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_coma_scale
10:36 < AdrianG> archels: thats just so you can triage/sort patients
10:37 < AdrianG> it doesnt help to understand conciousness except on a very rudimentary level
10:39 < Diablo-D3> archels: I wonder where I fall on that
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10:43 < xrr> maaku: I guess an attacker can block any transaction from getting confirmations. That would be more difficult to detect
10:43 < maaku> xrr: right
10:43 < xrr> Also, 51% power can mine 100% of blocks? Fun
10:43 < maaku> yup
10:43 < maaku> but that's detectable
10:44 < maaku> the censorship angle is a larger systematic risk
10:44 < maaku> it explicitly defeats the entire purpose of bitcoin
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10:45 < Aurelius_Work2> Hmmm
10:45 < Aurelius_Work2> I wonder if I could get a job working on power BI
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10:47 < gnusha_> https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=f167c7a3 Bryan Bishop: fix two minor typos >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/hong-kong/bip99-and-uncontroversial-hard-forks/
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10:58 < archels> AdrianG: it quasi-maps onto fundamental neurological functions
10:59 < archels> as such it is appropriate to the mind uploading field
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11:55 < nmz787_i> sup
11:56 < kanzure> annoyed about lack of results docs uploaded to clinicaltrials.gov
11:57 < kanzure> confused about lendingclub claims
12:03 < nmz787_i> /me imagines lendingclub has something to do with baby seals and rental agreements
12:06 < kanzure> well you're not wrong
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12:22 < AdrianG> kiva default rates sound too good to be true.
12:23 < Diablo-D3> heh, lending club is hilarious
12:23 < Diablo-D3> literally, a bunch of dudes were like HEY PROSPER SOUNDS AWESOME, LETS COPY IT
12:23 < Diablo-D3> and bam they legitimized prosper by cloning it
12:25 < AdrianG> what tells you its a clone?
12:25 < AdrianG> their scoring/risk management could be entirely different.
12:26 < Diablo-D3> AdrianG: a company that crowd sources their loan funding
12:27 < Diablo-D3> AdrianG: and they both use essentially the same risk management
12:27 < Diablo-D3> both company with federal laws on loan origination
12:27 < AdrianG> Diablo-D3: how do you know about the second part?
12:27 < Diablo-D3> because?
12:27 < AdrianG> risk management isnt entirely transparent.
12:27 < Diablo-D3> federal law on loans is a gigantic fucking tome
12:28 < Diablo-D3> that no one understands but a special breed of lawyer
12:28 < Diablo-D3> both of them have to meet the minimum of the law, and that minimum is very very very fucking high
12:28 < Diablo-D3> both are lower than if a bank was playing with its own money
12:28 < Diablo-D3> but its still pretty fucking up there
12:29 < AdrianG> i have a hunch. there is probably a direct correlation - the thicker the tome, the more profitable is the economic area being regulated.
12:29 < Diablo-D3> yup
12:29 < Diablo-D3> and subcorralary to that
12:29 < Diablo-D3> the thicker the tome, the more congressional fuckery going on
12:30 < Diablo-D3> but that doesnt mean we shouldnt regulate the almighty fuck out of them
12:30 < Diablo-D3> I mean, look at what one tiny change caused, the whole glass steagal fuckup
12:30 < Diablo-D3> major banks completely fucked themselves and caused the US equivalent to the lost decade
12:31 < Diablo-D3> Im all for major corporations being profitable, but they actually have to _be_ profitable
12:31 < Diablo-D3> temporally local profits at the cost of total profits is not a winning strategy
12:33 < Alcyius> maaku, while I can somehow see what you're going at, even people who aren't parents can still tell when someone is being a bad parent. Their thoughts on the matter can't be entirely discarded
12:33 < AdrianG> major banks completely fucked up everyone else, and then took their money via treasury too
12:33 < AdrianG> small correction ^
12:33 < Alcyius> Though, there is always a failsafe
12:33 < Diablo-D3> AdrianG: well no, they fucked themselves
12:33 < Diablo-D3> lets say they did it for personal profit
12:33 < Diablo-D3> which they did
12:33 < Diablo-D3> plus or minus
12:33 < Alcyius> For instance, create something the AI enjoys more than the real world, and withold it unless the AI performs to our ethical standards
12:34 < Diablo-D3> their wealth is now at a total negative of real value
12:34 < Diablo-D3> because the dollar is devalued
12:34 < Diablo-D3> so the difference between the rich and the poor is greater, ergo they are "richer"
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12:34 < Diablo-D3> but the actual purchasing power of their wealth is now lesser than it was
12:34 < Diablo-D3> theft of money on such a large scale is largely a lose-lose situation
12:36 < nmz787_i> deep UV LEDs are still around $200 a piece (in the mid 200nm range)
12:36 < nmz787_i> not terrible for a high-cost instrument... but still killer for low-cost DNA analysis
12:36 < AdrianG> nmz787_i: what power?
12:37 < kanzure> convince me that any of this is high-signal
12:38 < Diablo-D3> nmz787_i: define deep
12:38 < Diablo-D3> oh wait you did
12:38 < Diablo-D3> sorry, my brain is fucked up today
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12:46 < Alcyius> My MRI got insurance approval
12:46 < Alcyius> Finally
12:48 < gnusha_> https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=94355d2e Bryan Bishop: even more segwit video >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/hong-kong/segregated-witness-and-its-impact-on-scalability/
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12:50 < nmz787_i> AdrianG: the last prices I got were for 5 mA or so
12:51 < nmz787_i> so if you wanted to do a 260nm to 280nm absorbance ratio (which is the standard 'pretty good' routine analysis) you'd need two LEDs, so $400 plus few dollars for a photodiode and arduino clone or whatever, maybe a battery holder and a housing
12:52 < nmz787_i> $500 for a fake nanodrop is still pretty reasonable
12:52 < nmz787_i> but a real nanodrop can do a whole spectrum, not just the two wavelengths
12:54 < kanzure> http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s---SBN_lgf--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1462685970574979110.jpg
12:55 < Diablo-D3> kanzure: thats no zaku boy, no zaku!
12:56 < kanzure> go away
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13:03 < nmz787_i> kanzure: is that a real thing from the new movie?
13:03 < nmz787_i> by thing I mean droid
13:04 < kanzure> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSSTdD5WwAEzy2G.jpg
13:04 < AdrianG> nmz787_i: whats the cheapest FTIR setup ?
13:05 < Diablo-D3> nmz787_i: no, someone put artoo's head on a zaku.
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13:29 < nmz787_i> AdrianG: not sure, the FTIR I have was $50... but it is unsable as-is... though it appears the electronics I did get are fine, I think I just don't have the control unit for it
13:31 < nmz787_i> AdrianG: if you're talking DIY... they basically consist of a photodiode, a voice coil, a nice stable laser (HeNe gas is preferred, though maybe some solidstate are good enough today) and interferometer and or beam combiners, some mirrors, some salt windows... and the IR source (a hot glowing filament of wire)
13:31 < nmz787_i> so you could probably rig one up for $500-1000 not including all the leg work
13:32 < nmz787_i> the salt windows might be the hardest to find, or DIY... the mirrors also need to be high quality, parabolic or curved, and gold coated I think
13:32 < nmz787_i> and driving the voice coil probably needs to be pretty precise, or at least very repeatable
13:33 < nmz787_i> (since that changes the path length, and creates harmonics)
13:33 < Diablo-D3> woah, people build their own spectrometers?
13:33 < nmz787_i> Diablo-D3: yes, here is one project of mine for UV VIS https://hackaday.io/project/1342-open-spectrometer
13:33 < nmz787_i> there is another person on hackaday.io that was working on raman
13:34 < nmz787_i> (which I was aiming to produce a detector of sufficiently low noise to enable)
13:34 < nmz787_i> (though we had no collaboration other than a few comments back and forth on their project page)
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13:48 < AdrianG> nmz787_i: you bought ftir for 50 bucks?
13:55 < nmz787_i> yeah like 4 years ago from a recycler... mainly just to rip it apart... but when you power it on, the laser fires right up and the voice coil starts its reciprocating dance
13:56 < nmz787_i> I was moving books from my garage to my office/electronics-lab this past weekend, and knocked into the FTIR which was under a tarp... didn't realize til the next day that I had a gash on my shin where i knocked into the device
13:56 < nmz787_i> heavy ass beast
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13:59 < kanzure> to mitigate "technical" risk in a venture capital funded project, why isn't the trend to give up more equity for the funding? probably there's a floor or ceiling for how much risk you can buy by that method, hm.
14:00 < nmz787_i> equity in something that fails doesn't yield value, so maybe in terms of risk no amount of equity makes things better
14:00 < kanzure> there is value in equity in failed ventures- usually at least liquidation preferences regarding the physical assets and other stuff....
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15:31 < kanzure> "Can financial engineering cure cancer?" http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/CanFECureCancer2013.pdf
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15:33 < xentrac> there was a girl a few years back who built a raman spectrometer for her high school science fair, nmz787_i
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15:34 < kanzure> "Commercializing biomedical research through securitization techniques" http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf
15:34 < xentrac> nmz787_i: interesting the choice of the Propeller to get deterministic timing easily
15:36 < xentrac> I also didn't know about hackaday.io.  thanks!
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15:38 < xentrac> how much did the TCD1304AP cost?  digi-key doesn't list it
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15:41 < xentrac> heh, "With increased CAD and computational ability, optical design has been able to take the mirrors and the grating and merge them into one optical element."  that one optical element sounds challenging to fabricate?
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15:42 < Diablo-D3> Sounds like they're just 3D printing the object at least partially using computer aided problem solving
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15:44 < xentrac> Diablo-D3: we are not in the Diamond Age and therefore you cannot "3D print" optics
15:44 < xentrac> yet
15:45 < Diablo-D3> I dunno
15:45 < Diablo-D3> you might actually be able to
15:45 < xentrac> essentially all of the instrument-grade diffraction gratings in the world come from the Grating Lab, which cuts masters in glass with three grating engines, one built by the hands of Michelson himself
15:45 < Diablo-D3> ahh, theres that
15:45 < Diablo-D3> that sounds like that entire industry is...
15:45 < xentrac> someday, yes; today, no
15:45  * Diablo-D3 puts on sunglasses
15:46 < xentrac> your humor is not adding to the signal level in this channel and is likely to result in you being banned
15:46 < kanzure> correct
15:46 < Diablo-D3> fine =/
15:47 < Diablo-D3> I couldn't think of a good pun anyways
15:47 < xentrac> the actual gratings that are distributed are molded from the glass masters through several intermediate stages
15:47 < xentrac> the process is very demanding because it must preserve the surface detail of the grating down to a small fraction of the wavelength of light
15:48 < Diablo-D3> xentrac: okay so....
15:48 < Diablo-D3> its basically integrated circuit manufacturing
15:48 < xentrac> the necessary capabilities have a lot in common with IC manufacturing, but the process is completely different
15:49 < Diablo-D3> well, I was thinking along the lines of how features are now measured in low single digit nanometers
15:51 < Diablo-D3> and UV lithography is basically boned because features are now smaller than the wavelength of the UV light they're using
15:51 < kanzure> xentrac: let me know when i should ban him.
15:53 < xentrac> kanzure: I was trying to prevent him from being banned by giving him an extra warning so he could correct himself
15:53 < Diablo-D3> ?
15:55 < Diablo-D3> So you're going to ban me for talking about nano-scale fabrication techniques?
15:56 < Diablo-D3> Especially since, apparently, they use/will be using EULV lithography for diffraction grating manufacturing?
15:56 < xentrac> now that sounds interesting
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15:57 < xentrac> I haven't heard of it though
15:57 < xentrac> link?
15:58 < Diablo-D3> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanolithography
15:58 < Diablo-D3> surprisingly there
15:58 < Diablo-D3> it doesn't have a ref though, so meh
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16:01 < Diablo-D3> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron-beam_lithography
16:01 < Diablo-D3> now that is pretty interesting
16:04 < Diablo-D3> xentrac: so those diffraction grates you're interested in are for IR?
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16:05 < Diablo-D3> why is that the only company that produces them?
16:06 < Diablo-D3> it looks like something they could repurpose old semiconductor equipment for, doesn't it?
16:06 < xentrac> Diablo-D3: the relevant criteria are "bandwidth" and "signal-to-noise ratio".  we all probably already know that UV lithography is running into problems due to wavelength, for example, and that the current process node is 14nm (not yet low-single-digit nanometers)
16:07 < xentrac> so saying those things is not super endearing :)
16:09 < Diablo-D3> Okay? Normally its considered rude to start talking about such things without context.
16:09 < xentrac> Richardson Gratings (the current owner of the Grating Lab) is the only company that produces research-grade gratings because reproducing more gratings from the master is very cheap, but making the master is very difficult
16:09 < xentrac> oh, I'm answering this: 23:55 < Diablo-D3> So you're going to ban me for talking about nano-scale fabrication techniques?
16:10 < kanzure> those megafunds would probably have better results by just buying the fda itself, or influencing the political process to make drug approval cheaper overall. once you accumulate $30 billion, a bunch of options open up.
16:10 < Diablo-D3> Yes, and threatening to ban people for trying to understand the problem by comparing it to other problems also isn't good for the snr.
16:10 < kanzure> although getting new laws passed costs way less than $30 billion
16:11 < xentrac> there is a company doing specialty gratings with a scanning-beam process: http://www.plymouthgrating.com/Products/Products%20Page.htm
16:11 < xentrac> but I still want to know how nmz787 is planning to produce the optics for their spectrophotometer, because if they have a better way, that's super awesome
16:12 < xentrac> I mean, it suggests that there are important manufacturing capabilities that I don't know about, which is a really important thing for me to find out about :)
16:14 < xentrac> the PGL results I linked above are fairly crude by some measures compared to the blazing achieved by Richardson
16:16 < Diablo-D3> xentrac: well, Im pretty sure nmz787 can't do IR plates in his basement and/or garage... so yeah, I'm wondering too
16:18 < xentrac> you might be surprised at what nmz787 can do in his basement ;)
16:18 < Alcyius> *sigh*
16:18 < Alcyius> Why
16:21 < xentrac> this is the nearest semiconductor manufacturing process to the process used for gratings: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanoimprint_lithography
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16:38 < kanzure> megafund proposal relies on an awfully large amount of intellectual property law ("research-backed obligations").
16:40 < xentrac> it would probably work better to start a research cult
16:40 < xentrac> only problem is that it would be banned in China
16:40 < kanzure> xentrac: http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf this one
16:41 < kanzure> i am not particularly impressed by existing answers to high-risk project financing... "high-risk" is sorta handwavy too; was the laser "high risk"?
16:41 < xentrac> right
16:42 < xentrac> how big is Harvard's endowment?
16:43 < kanzure> 36 billion
16:44 < xentrac> so basically they're proposing a university funded by its tech transfer office?
16:44 < xentrac> or does Harvard not issue bonds?
16:44 < nmz787_i> xentrac: TCD1304 series are about $10, easily had on aliexpress and ebay... I think there is some licensing thing that prevents their sale on digikey or something, I'm not too sure... I once heard they might have been discontinued and all sales were of old-stock... but that was years ago and hard to believe since they're still just as easily available (and also there is no replacement/substitute product)
16:45 < nmz787_i> xentrac: 3D printed optics has been demonstrated... not great, but OK
16:45 < xentrac> nmz787_i: really?  including gratings?
16:46 < xentrac> $10 is pretty amazing. we are living in the future
16:46 < kanzure> xentrac: they are proposing a megafund structure where the bonds have a high chance of high yield by funding ~150 pre-clinical-trial products.
16:47 < xentrac> yes, so I see
16:47 < xentrac> although "high chance of high yield" is almost a contradiction ;)
16:47 < kanzure> well, i mean, high chance of 10-12% yield
16:48 < nmz787_i> xentrac: http://hackaday.com/2014/12/13/3d-printed-lenses-open-up-possibilities/
16:48 < nmz787_i> I think that is the one I was thinking of
16:48 < nmz787_i> also e-beam lithography is old news
16:48 < nmz787_i> as is ion beam litho
16:48 < xentrac> well, it still might turn out to be useful
16:49 < kanzure> even if harvard endowment fund did issue regular bonds or something, not sure how to answer your question
16:49 < xentrac> "all lenses require some form of polishing to become optically clear. It was printed with a 50 micron resolution"
16:49 < nmz787_i> and while many gratings come out of Richardson (now absorbed by.... Edmund optics I think) there are other (read non-US) suppliers/manufacturers
16:49 < xentrac> so that's about three orders of magnitude too coarse to print a grating with
16:49 < nmz787_i> right, that's why the post is title "lenses"
16:49 < nmz787_i> not gratings ;)
16:49 < xentrac> (or nine orders if you're counting voxels)
16:49 < nmz787_i> but gratings have been made DIY too
16:50 < xentrac> yeah, but I don't think the other suppliers have a significant fraction of the research market, do they?  even overseas
16:50 < xentrac> indeed
16:50 < nmz787_i> http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/optics/photolithography/High%20resolution,%20low%20cost%20laser%20lithography%20using%20a%20Blu-ray%20optical%20head%20assembly.pdf
16:50 < xentrac> I mean, one of the three ruling engines in the Grating Lab was a Do It Yourself by Michelson in 1910
16:50 < nmz787_i> that isn't really sub-micron... but gratings nonetheless
16:51 < xentrac> 450nm feature size could work if you were only doing infra4red
16:51 < xentrac> but for infrared spectroscopy everyone does FTIR anyway
16:51 < nmz787_i> xentrac: well gratings/grisms etc are far from consumer items... so the market isn't very transparent or open
16:51 < kanzure> xentrac: i would say one of the differences is that harvard isn't chasing yield
16:52 < kanzure> and harvard isn't chasing commercialization
16:52 < xentrac> kanzure: I am sure that Harvard's administrators are quite enthusiastic about maximizing the future size of their endowment
16:53 < xentrac> but the bonds are a big difference
16:53 < kanzure> the administrators might be, but as an institution they are not studiously applying their knowledge towards optimizing themselves as a technology development and infrastructure deployment superleague.
16:53 < kanzure> why big difference?
16:53 < xentrac> also, Harvard is more careful about its survival than the yield
16:54 < kanzure> if their endowment is 36 billion then they probably only have a few billion/year to play with
16:55 < xentrac> because if you can actually get pension funds to accept 3% yields on your research-backed bonds, you can bring to bear enormous amounts of money on the problem
16:55 < xentrac> whatever the problem is
16:55 < xentrac> and that's why Elon Musk owns the majority of the rooftop solar panels in California
16:55 < kanzure> these papers are looking at 10-12% returns
16:55 < kanzure> over 10-15 year period
16:56 < kanzure> (for $30 billion-ish. does not seem to be accessible for lower amounts of capital)
16:56 < Diablo-D3> Okay, so, what exactly are you doing with these?
16:56 < xentrac> yeah, I know they're proposing higher returns
16:56 < Diablo-D3> the FTIR spectrometers
16:56 < xentrac> but you aren't going to get pension funds to invest in bonds at 10%
16:56 < kanzure> xentrac: whynot?
16:57 < Diablo-D3> uh, what bond is going to be 100% failproof and pay 10%?
16:57 < xentrac> yields and risks are inversely related
16:57 < Diablo-D3> exactly
16:57 < kanzure> have you read the paper?
16:57 < xentrac> I haven't finished it yet
16:58 < kanzure> they are aiming for a default probability of 0.4%
16:58 < Diablo-D3> this is why most funds like this just invest in government bonds, most of them federal
16:58 < xentrac> but the general idea is that if your bonds are really low-risk, you won't have to pay 10% to get people to buy them
16:58 < xentrac> and if you are paying 10% to get people to buy them, then they will conclude that they aren't really low-risk
16:58 < Diablo-D3> if the US government defaults, well, we have muuuuch larger problems to deal with than a couple kids going to college
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16:58 < kanzure> "This default probability is comparable to the historical realized 10-year default rates of the highest-rated category of debt (Aaa) from 1920 to 2010, according to the bond-rating agency Moody’s
16:58 < kanzure> [25]."
16:59 < xentrac> and if they are wrong about that risk, then someone else will do the same thing and make a lot more money by paying 3% on similar bonds
16:59 < Diablo-D3> btw, why is the fund trying to manage that risk itself?
16:59 < Diablo-D3> isn't that a waste of the fund's time and money?
17:01 < xentrac> Diablo-D3: I am reading http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf
17:01 < xentrac> the first five or so pages are about that
17:02 < Diablo-D3> So this is about, what, forming a fund that just uses low risk investments to fund research?
17:02 < Diablo-D3> Oh wait, no
17:02 < Diablo-D3> Its about making a portfolio of projects to reduce risk
17:03 < Diablo-D3> That is more of the silicon valley angel investor shotgun effect than I'd like to see
17:03 < Diablo-D3> xentrac: I added it to my read list
17:04 < kanzure> well, idea is to see if there is a feasible way of funding large-scale high-risk projects like orbital telescopes, dyson spheres, large-scale cryonics facilities, whole brain emulation work, brain uploading depositories and scanning tech, etc.
17:05 < kanzure> if we are having such significant problems with basic medicine then even highly-likely-to-eventually-be-feasible things like dyson spheres are going to be even more painful to make happen
17:05 < Diablo-D3> Well, the problem with that is most people are simply not well enough educated to handle such concepts
17:05 < Diablo-D3> And I'm saying that from personal experience
17:05 < xentrac> kanzure: interestingly this paper mentions MIT raised US$0.75B in 100-year bonds in 2011
17:05 < kanzure> gah please go the fuck away
17:05 < xentrac> at 5.6%
17:05 < kanzure> Diablo-D3: you are very very low-signal and i would like you to leave
17:06 < Diablo-D3> What the hell man
17:06 < Diablo-D3> You can't just say everything you disagree with is low signal
17:06 < kanzure> fuck you for assuming i disagree with any of that shit, wtf
17:06 < kanzure> no i want you to leave because you are low-signal, not because i fucking disagre3e
17:07 < Diablo-D3> Okay, so, how are you going to convince investors to invest into moonshots when reasonably average people won't even buy electric cars
17:07 < Diablo-D3> That isn't "low signal", that is a relevant problem
17:07 < justanotheruser> what
17:08 < Diablo-D3> What the paper xentrac linked to seems to more cover "what to do with the money, and how to best protect it against individual project failure" and less about actually getting money to invest into such projects in the first place
17:08 < kanzure> that is not a relevant problem; it's not even a problem.
17:09 < nmz787_i> tbh I didn't understand why xentrac mentioned in the first place that Diablo-D3 was low signal... I mean I thought the joke about '... day' and "puts on sunglasses" was funny and not noisy... if anything it made the subject interesting because it was humourous
17:09 < kanzure> no he has been here for days smelling up the place
17:09 < nmz787_i> Diablo-D3: FTIR is for doing chemical analysis
17:10 < kanzure> xentrac: i wonder why they wanted to do 100 year bonds
17:10 < Diablo-D3> kanzure: I feel like I know you from somewhere else
17:10 < xentrac> kanzure: this paper's "megafunds" is sounding more and more like a higher-risk version of a research university
17:11 < kanzure> xentrac: but again though, harvard isn't focused on tech development, engineering and deployment. and yet they are a research university. so i don't think the comparison works out?
17:11 < xentrac> well, that isn't all they do, but they do do that
17:11 < Diablo-D3> Harvard does make money off of some of the things they have funded research into
17:12 < xentrac> I think the bigger issue is that 0.4% risk of failure over 10 years is a 25-year MTBF, which is pretty short for a research university
17:12 < kanzure> Diablo-D3: yes we all know about tech transfer offices. please, please go away.
17:12 < Diablo-D3> kanzure: look, I'm normally a nice guy, but if you're going to keep doing that, I'm going to put you on ignore
17:12 < kanzure> i don't care if you are nice. i'll ban your ass.
17:12 < xentrac> and of course Harvard gets more funding from its alumni than from its tech transfer office, rigght?
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17:13 < Diablo-D3> Yes, and continually interrupting the conversation about how you don't like what I'm saying is not really helping the snr is it?
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17:14 < kanzure> xentrac: i have no idea if that's the case or not
17:14 < Jonathan> hah
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17:16 < xentrac> (harvard may not be the best university to look at, but clearly the proposed "megafunds" are more like Harvard or MIT than they are like Antioch College)
17:17 < xentrac> total cash receipts from giving (mostly from alumni I suppose) in 2015 were US$1B: http://finance.harvard.edu/files/fad/files/harvard_financialreport_fy15.pdf?m=1446124347
17:17 < kanzure> tech transfer office surely pulls more revenue than $1B ? maybe not......
17:18 < xentrac> I was thinking "surely less"
17:18 < kanzure> other issue is that in hyper-competitive environment of low-risk investment opportunities at many scales and magnitude, high-risk probably never has a chance. government funding doesn't really solve this either.
17:19 < xentrac> but so far I am not finding any mention of their tech transfer revenues in this report at all
17:19 < kanzure> why would you go for surely less ? i mean maybe because harvard, but iirc stanford for example makes a buttload from patents.
17:19 < kanzure> a dirty nasty buttload
17:19 < xentrac> I don't think it's that large of a buttload though
17:19 < xentrac> and Stanford itself is a bit of an outlier there, much as is Harvard on endowment size
17:20 < nmz787_i> Diablo-D3: I agree that kanzure's comments about snr actually degrade it
17:20 < kanzure> well i mean we should be okay with hand-waving about a slightly imaginary university that has similar traits
17:20 < xentrac> sorry for contributing to that, nmz787_i
17:20 < kanzure> page 8 http://www1.hw.ac.uk/kescotland/media/Technology%20Transfer%20at%20Stanford.pdf
17:20 < nmz787_i> but I guess I am not here lately enough to smell 'the stink' as he put it
17:20 < kanzure> "$100 billion dollars in revenue or approximately half of the Silicon Valley revenue is spin-off from Stanford University"
17:21 < xentrac> one thing that may not be captured by these figures is that Stanford (and maybe Harvard) may demand equity in spinoffs, rather than direct payment
17:21 < xentrac> sure, but how much of that value do they capture?
17:21 < kanzure> oh hell
17:21 < kanzure> hm
17:22 < xentrac> Diablo-D3 points out http://www.statnews.com/2015/12/21/harvard-faculty-scientific-research/ which says US$13M annually
17:23 < xentrac> anyway, so the "megafunds" idea is kind of to run a biotech-focused research university entirely off its securitized tech transfer revenues with an MTBF of about 25 years?
17:23 < xentrac> no, what am I saying?
17:24 < xentrac> 0.4% / 10 years is .04% per year, or 2500 years MTBF, which to me sounds like somebody's been hitting the crack pipe
17:24 < xentrac> ain't nobody got a 2500-year-MTBF organization out there.  not the Pope, not the Japanese Emperor, nobody.
17:26 < xentrac> but that's okay if we're just talking about 0.4% for the lowest-risk tranche or something?
17:28 < nmz787_i> wait, isnt the catholic church pretty close to 2500 years?
17:29 < nmz787_i> they're the most successful business when viewed in a certain way
17:29 < xentrac> it's close, but do you really think its likely lifespan from today is *another* 2500 years?
17:29 < xentrac> assuming no "institutional wearout", which may be unreasonable
17:30 < xentrac> I mean there were a lot of similar institutions around when it was born, most of which have since been destroyed
17:30 < xentrac> so you have to correct for survivorship bias
17:30 < xentrac> I don't think we can count Saudi Arabia as a survival of the Nestorian church, for example
17:31 < nmz787_i> I can't find the article I was thinking of
17:31 < xentrac> (also, they lost most of their assets a few times, which would have been a problem if they had securitized those assets to investors...)
17:32 < nmz787_i> the article was more of a comparison
17:32 < nmz787_i> talking about steady growth (using membership instead of revenue)
17:32 < nmz787_i> but that basically growth has been consistent for like 2000 years
17:33 < xentrac> I can believe that.  and Pope Bergoglio seems like he might correct its recent decades of falling below the trend line
17:34 < xentrac> but what about the Nestorians and the Byzantines?
17:34 < xentrac> or for that matter the Zoroastrians and the Mithraists
17:36 < nmz787_i> you're speaking "foreigner" to me
17:36 < nmz787_i> I suck at history pretty much
17:37 < nmz787_i> I am pretty sure the non-US guy I work with knows more about US presidents than I do
17:38 < cluckj> also jews
17:38 < cluckj> been around for kind of a while
17:41 < cluckj> the catholic church isn't 2500 year MTBF either, they've had a few
17:42 < xentrac> Judaism still exists as a religion, but not a church in the sense of an institution that can hold assets
17:43 < xentrac> this segment about drug-royalty investment companies is really interesting; I didn't know these existed
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17:45 < cluckj> hmm
17:45 < xentrac> it's strange that they think that Royalty Pharma invested US$5.8 billion over 8 years and yet their proposed "megafund" could be viable with much higher-risk assets with only US$35B
17:45 < xentrac> you'd think it would be more like a factor of 10 difference
17:47 < cluckj> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies
17:48 < xentrac> if we take "companies" in general as our reference population, I think the MTBF is about 30 years
17:48 < xentrac> but the hazard function is far from constant, with much higher risk in the first few years
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17:49 < kanzure> what is origin of interest in 2500-year-MTBF or MTBF?
17:50 < xentrac> 0.4% risk of default over 10 years implies MTBF ≥ 2500y
17:50 < cluckj> risk calculations? which are a recent thing
17:50 < xentrac> p.11
17:53 < kanzure> yea i suppose more generally, diversification is a lousy risk mitigation scheme. ultimately you have to mitigate actual risks through methods other than weird financialization.... like actual study, engineering, hard work, that sort of thing.
17:53 < kanzure> which... uh, requires funding.
17:54 < kanzure> wait i think i'm stuck in an infinite loop
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17:56 < xentrac> a more interesting question is whether diversification might *increase* risk
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17:56 < xentrac> I mean essentially the researchers at the "megafund" would be employees of a largish company (thousands of employees)
17:56 < kanzure> depends on what diversification really means--- ultimately many engineering problems have similar underlying principles or solutions
17:57 < xentrac> the organizational techniques to make such large organizations manageable are somewhat at odds with the needs of innovation
17:57 < kanzure> there has not been much experimentation with top-down strategic planning for scientific achievement
17:57 < kanzure> there are very few research orgs that have tried this; myelin repair foundation is one of the more prominent examples that comes to mind.
17:58 < kanzure> sens foundation is another example sorta- although they sorta suck at strategy and funding compared to myelin repair foundation i think? not sure.
17:58 < cluckj> big government research projects?
17:58 < kanzure> http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/open-science-summit-2010/scott-johnson-myelin-repair-foundation/
17:59 < kanzure> "The reason why we show these circles.. is that basic science is pretty random. There's no research plan. No disease organization actually has a research plan. They put out a request for proposals, they peer review those, and those that get the highest ratings, that's what gets funded. Most academics would say that it should be random, since you can't know where they are going. Well, in some cases you want to be outcome directed"
17:59 < kanzure> so in particular i mean the random grant submission process heh
18:00 < kanzure> by picking a strategy you can focus on some very particular questions and hypotheses and work towards either validating some models or rejecting the entire premise, as quickly as possible
18:01 < kanzure> this requires you to be good at speculation and theory and science and knowledge, but that does not seem like an overly burdensome requirement.
18:01 < cluckj> it is, seemingly, all about the benjamins
18:02 < xentrac> 01:57 < kanzure> there has not been much experimentation with top-down strategic planning for scientific achievement
18:02 < kanzure> darpa tends to have some strategy, though. so that's an interesting place to look.
18:02 < xentrac> seriously?  what about DARPA, SBIR grants, the Manhattan project...?
18:02 < cluckj> ^
18:02 < kanzure> yes yes i just said darpa, cool your hyperjets :P
18:02 < xentrac> I was typing too slow!
18:02 < kanzure> sbir grants though- not sure why you bring those up here?
18:02 < cluckj> those are outcome-based though?
18:02 < cluckj> DARPA is like "we need a killer robot to do X"
18:03 < kanzure> no darpa also does broader stuff
18:03 < cluckj> or "we need a big-ass bomb"
18:03 < xentrac> a lot of SBIR grant RFPs are for scientific achievements
18:03 < kanzure> like they did something approximating "make me 'sudo make me a sandwhich'" (their ifab initiative)
18:03 < kanzure> and they have their 100 year colonization starship thingy
18:03 < xentrac> the problem is that most of that stuff is kind of incremental
18:03 < kanzure> why is that problematic?
18:03 < cluckj> something that is coincidentally outcome-based, but is in practice very focused on basic research?
18:04 < xentrac> I mean, the outcomes of scientific discoveries 10 or 20 years out are really hard to predict
18:04 < xentrac> so it's hard to top-down plan what you need to research *today* with objectives half a century out
18:04 < kanzure> well yes but- i mean, presumably you don't focus on magical thinking, you focus on good speculation with good assumptions and good mental arithmetic
18:04 < xentrac> right, but that may not actually work
18:05 < kanzure> i think that's what post mortems are for, "oops we forgot that we needed a null hypothesis"
18:05 < xentrac> I mean you could have argued that the Correspondence Principle showed that lasers were impossible
18:06 < kanzure> "You want to prove the total task will work even if the subtasks fail, and otherwise abandon it. Then you want to prove each subtask is impossible, and replace it appropriately and re-plan integration as quickly as possible (etc etc). It's not as big a deal to structure things perfectly if you have infinite resources and can parallelize everything, which is how the space shuttle and particle colliders are built."
18:06 < xentrac> even if you knew that the confocal microscope would be a really great way to use lasers if they could exist
18:06 < kanzure> "The big danger is doing the non-failfast steps first with one person. If one component has a major problem, that means one node is unexpectedly big. In practice, people replace that component with another component rather than delay, or engineer around it, or just accept the delay. But the overall delay is not due to delay along a specific path--it's due to multiple delays, some on every critical path."
18:07 < kanzure> ("with one person" as in the person architecting and implementing the damn thing (needs to look at the actual details and make sure there's no large splotches of infeasibility))
18:07 < cluckj> the upcoming scientific funding paradigm is going to be changing from big institutional science to individual entrepreneurship, which might be an improvement
18:07 < xentrac> but there's no way that you would have predicted in 1952 that lasers would lead to supermarket barcode scanners, CD-ROMs, high-bandwidth fiber-optic communication, and consumer-level laser-cut wood
18:08 < kanzure> in the 1920s there was someone that wanted a telescope-based optical internet based on libraries that had lots of mirrors and mechanical switches
18:08 < kanzure> pneumatic relay networks were around since forever
18:08 < xentrac> or for that matter atomic clocks
18:08 < cluckj> now we have fiber networks and DLPs
18:08 < xentrac> (and GPS...)
18:09 < xentrac> sure, optical long-distance communication has a history spanning millennia
18:09 < xentrac> .wik heliograph
18:09 < yoleaux> "A heliograph (Greek: Ἥλιος helios, meaning "sun", and γραφειν graphein, meaning "write") is a wireless solar telegraph that signals by flashes of sunlight (generally using Morse code) reflected by a mirror. The flashes are produced by momentarily pivoting the mirror, or by interrupting the beam with a shutter." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliograph
18:09 < kanzure> i'm not sure if you would have needed to assume or know about lasers though
18:10 < xentrac> no, what I'm saying is that even if you could know that lasers were *possible* in 1952, instead of being tricked by a naive reading of the Correspondence Principle into labeling them as "magical thinking"
18:10 < kanzure> non-laser alternatives seem plausible
18:10 < kanzure> what's so bad about avoiding lasers?
18:10 < xentrac> you wouldn't have been able to predict the effects of actually achieving lasers
18:10 < kanzure> presumably lasers would still happen (just not because of you :p)
18:10 < xentrac> sure, possibly
18:11 < kanzure> ok so you mean trying to come up with arguments for working on lasers
18:11 < xentrac> although if you take that perspective, in the limit we should not worry about anything and just let other people do all the work
18:11 < xentrac> but I'm not saying avoiding lasers is bad
18:11 < kanzure> i think that framing of the problem is sorta wrong though-- like, "how do we fund the development of brain uploading/scanning/whatever" is a much different question than "hmm how do we commercialize this theoretical physics result?".
18:12 < xentrac> I'm saying that it's hard to plan scientific achievements top-down because you don't know in advance what's possible and what's not, and for that matter what will happen
18:12 < kanzure> i think you can have very strong boundaries around what you know is possible
18:12 < kanzure> there's a lot that we know is possible, we just don't have exact answers on how to get there, but we can definitely be systematic in our approach for identifying reliable paths or routes
18:12 < xentrac> sure, in the late 1800s Kelvin showed that it was impossible for the Sun to be more than a few million years old
18:13 < xentrac> I agree about the brain-uploading question --- we know some of the things we will need to figure out
18:13 < kanzure> that's not a helpful example- the analogy is sorta useless to me, how am i supposed to make a tech thingy that requires the sun to be less than a million years old...
18:13  * cluckj eats his Thomas Kuhn book, whole
18:13 < xentrac> heh
18:13 < kanzure> or s/supposed to make/supposed to imagine
18:14 < xentrac> well, a working tokamak or even Farnsworth fusor requires the "impossible" things to happen that allowed the sun to be more than a few million years old
18:14 < kanzure> btw what was his reasoning for impossibility
18:15 < xentrac> he knew the sun's mass from the period of the Earth's orbit, the Earth's mass, and the gravitational constant
18:16 < xentrac> so he calculated the potential energy of that mass falling in from infinity, which was surely where the Sun's energy output came from, and its output
18:16 < kanzure> so he was looking at sun mass burn rate?
18:16 < xentrac> well, he didn't know of a mechanism by which the sun could be burning mass
18:16 < xentrac> that wasn't discovered for several decades more
18:16 < xentrac> he knew the answer was wrong, FWIW
18:17 < kanzure> because astronomy and stars and light years more than a few million?
18:17 < xentrac> because it was known that the Earth was several billion years old and had been populated by plants for a good fraction of that
18:17 < kanzure> oh that is a less fun reason that he knew he was wrong. oh well.
18:17 < xentrac> no, actually the Milky Way was all that was known of the universe at the time, and it's pretty small
18:17 < xentrac> they didn't realize there were other galaxies
18:18 < xentrac> cf. Kuhn above
18:18 < xentrac> anyway so we can work on the problems we think will help with brain uploading
18:18 < xentrac> but it might turn out that the things that actually help most are the ones we can't yet tell will help
18:19 < kanzure> so actually i am not so interested in brain uploading of any particular individual..... i'd be fine with very rough approximation that seems to boot up anything between bonobo-level general cognitive ability and human-level general cognitive ability. the specific memories i'm much less interested in.
18:19 < xentrac> which means that a non-top-down-planned invisible college would get to them first
18:19 < cluckj> there are some that help a lot, and predictably, like refrigeration
18:19 < xentrac> yes
18:19 < cluckj> or vaccinations
18:19 < xentrac> the best modern example is probably the Japanese Fifth Generation Computing Project
18:19 < cluckj> or (currently) antibiotics
18:19 < cluckj> yeah, fuckin' computers too
18:20 < xentrac> where top-down planning prevented Japan from achieving much of anything in computing in the 1980s
18:20 < kanzure> maybe they just had poor planners though?
18:20 < kanzure> get fucking john von neumann in charge of this shit, damn
18:20 < xentrac> sure
18:20 < xentrac> heh
18:21 < xentrac> I don't know if you heard but the good doctor is dead
18:21 < xentrac> antibiotics is a good example of the uncertainty: we have this new family of antibiotics that might turn out to work well and last long enough to allow us to design new ones
18:21 < kanzure> there's lots of alternatives in antibiotics land; they just take a while to get worked on. igem keeps unturning new ways to do antibiotics. i wouldn't worry aobut that.
18:21 < cluckj> antibiotics is a great example too, because there's more than one 'paradigm' to kill bacteria
18:22 < xentrac> but it might turn out that bacteria develop resistance to them faster than we expect and that phage therapy or even diamondoid nanobots would have been a better approach
18:22 < kanzure> nah there's lots of stuff you can do to make sure that resistance is not easily-achievable.
18:22 < cluckj> bacteriophages are one way too, and that approach died with the soviet union
18:22 < xentrac> or I don't know some kind of immune supplementation
18:22 < xentrac> I think there are stll Russian clinics that do phage therapy, cluckj
18:22 < kanzure> bacteria have high parallelism but they have zero ability to surpass super-large energy gaps on the evolutionary landscape
18:22 < cluckj> I think you can still buy them OTC in russia
18:23 < xentrac> kanzure: that seems likely to be correct, but bacteria keep surprising us
18:24 < kanzure> when have they surprised us
18:24 < kanzure> antibiotic resistance has not been surprising
18:25 < xentrac> horizontal gene transfer was discovered in 1951 but it wasn't until the 1990s, for example, that it was recognized as a major driving force of bacterial evolutio
18:25 < kanzure> what?
18:25 < kanzure> so they put the estimate an order of magnitude too low. so what?
18:26 < xentrac> and we keep finding bacterial species that are progressively more extremophilic, surpassing previously hypothesized limits on extremophilia
18:26 < xentrac> although fortunately those are rarely pathogenic
18:26 < cluckj> haha
18:26 < cluckj> Taq polymerase
18:26 < kanzure> fusion answer was a good answer earlier
18:26 < cluckj> speaking of unintended outcomes of extremophile research
18:27 < xentrac> yes, that's a good answer too
18:27 < kanzure> buuuut i don't think kelvin was trying to build a nuclear reactor
18:27 < cluckj> it's an unknown unknown thing
18:28 < xentrac> no, just like I'm not trying to build an antigravity or time-travel or FTL machine
18:28 < kanzure> engineering shows us that planning actually works and we can achieve results, even when we don't know the exact format of all of the components (such as in software, where you don't have full clarity on every single detail at the very beginning).
18:28 < kanzure> well we know how to build a time traveling machine damn it
18:28 < xentrac> (although Kelvin was a great scientist and I am just a punter)
18:28 < cluckj> just gotta go FTL
18:28 < kanzure> no you don't need faster-than-light for time travel, sigh
18:29 < cluckj> there are probably easier ways of time traveling, but we can't even think of what they are because of our current understanding of physics
18:30 < cluckj> I won't say epistemology because 'philosophy'
18:30 < kanzure> huh? no, they are known.
18:30 < kanzure> there are at least two widely known ways to do forward-only time travel
18:30 < kanzure> three, if you are okay with the slow method joke answer
18:30 < xentrac> sure, I meant backward time travel :)
18:30 < cluckj> ^
18:30 < kanzure> cheaters.
18:30 < xentrac> I think talking about "forward-only time travel" in the context of "time travel" also kind of qualifies as a "joke answer" :)
18:31 < cluckj> lol
18:31 < kanzure> maybe i'm a time clown
18:33 < kanzure> anyway i still tihnk that planning and strategy seems to work
18:33 < kanzure> and focusing on correctness seems to help (i really do think john von neumann would have conducted a better research strategy)
18:35 < xentrac> yeah, I think focusing on correctness and focusing a good part of our effort on things that are strategically important is a good idea
18:35 < kanzure> it's a shame that we have to bother to actually say such generic obvious things
18:35 < kanzure> well i guess they are not always obvious
18:36 < cluckj> I agree it's important too
18:36 < cluckj> I think finding ways to increase and foster serendipity is better :)
18:38 < xentrac> I think we need both
18:38 < cluckj> ^
18:38 < xentrac> which I think is not obvious to kanzure :)
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18:39 < cluckj> the latest scientific knowledge production regime is about focusing on expanding current understandings in order to profit from them
18:40 < kanzure> not really... it's very poorly structured for that.
18:40 < xentrac> fortunately the Invisible College of Hackademia is here to fill the gap :)
18:41 < cluckj> hah
18:41 < cluckj> it's not so invisible anymore
18:41 < kanzure> hackademia sounds like a rare blood disease
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18:41 < kanzure> i hope there's a treatment
18:42 < kanzure> iirc not even the soviet five year plans were based on merits :-/
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18:45 < xentrac> well, that's good; it means your idea might not be disastrous ;)
18:47 < kanzure> huh?
18:47 < cluckj> MTBF on soviet five-year plans is about 5 years
18:49 < xentrac> if you went back and discovered that the Soviets had been doing the kind of top-down innovation planning you want to do, and it turned out to be a disaster, then you would have significant though not definitive evidence that it was a bad idea
18:50 < kanzure> why would you have to go back to find that out, though?
18:50 < xentrac> I mean, they certainly didn't leap and bound ahead of the US on innovation; they did make some advances, like the phage therapy mentioned above and a few other things, but mostly they were behind the US
18:51 < kanzure> instead of going back in time let's just check the old trusty soviet patent database instead http://patents.su/
18:51 < xentrac> by "went back" I meant in the sense of reading old records, not literally using time travel
18:51 < cluckj> lol
18:55 < kanzure> oh right, those were economic plans
18:55 < kanzure> not necessarily science
18:55 < cluckj> centralized planning wasn't just for economics iirc
18:55 < kanzure> or engineering
18:55 < kanzure> trying to find.
18:55 < xentrac> unfortunately I don't even read Cyrillic, much less Russian, so things like http://patents.su/1976 are hard for me to make much sense of
18:56 < kanzure> amateur
18:56 < xentrac> heh
18:57 < kanzure> laser cutter status?
18:58 < cluckj> scientific research is kinda part of the economy :\
18:58 < kanzure> yes but i dunno level of actual planning of science
18:58 < kanzure> maybe it was just per-institution funding
18:59 < kanzure> "more science towns. yeah, that sounds good." - stalin 1
19:00 < kanzure> so wikipedia does not seem to have a copy of any of the actual plans??
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19:00 < xentrac> "katushekki made of dvuhdiski mandrel vnuny leash skpri aid tube sliding iCal Katushev ayuscha I am smiling possibilities 5 us, the shaft frames cal pipes, and the Rhone are equipped with one another nom soedinenIzvestna sliding mandrel for winding electrical coils of the authors."
19:00 < kanzure> sigh of course they don't.
19:00 < kanzure> i bet these were "proprietary".
19:01 < kanzure> how can you execute the plan if you can't even get a copy
19:01 < xentrac> my laser cutter status is that I have an apparently-working workflow from PostScript to MDF objects but I need to try a bunch more things
19:02 < kanzure> how many fires so far?
19:02 < xentrac> I lost most of the last week to an unexpected digestive illness
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19:02 < xentrac> several, but none that didn't blow out immediately
19:02 < kanzure> hm.
19:05 < xentrac> I also hacked together some stuff with JS and SVG because my PostScript interaction loop time is only going to get worse
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19:13 < xentrac> I find PostScript a little frustrating in that, despite pathforall, your access to the generated geometry is still fairly limited
19:14 < xentrac> if you want to find out, for example, whether and where two paths intersect, your options for doing so are limited and inefficient, despite the fact that the RIP has to implement that operation in order to implement clippath and fill
19:14 < xentrac> it's not quite as bad as the situation with OpenSCAD
19:16 < xentrac> I guess I should quit whining and try other systems, like Antimony and Blender
19:16 < xentrac> or BRL-CAD, as nmz787 suggested
19:19 < maaku> xentrac: how was it known the Earth was several billion years old before radioisotope testing?
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19:21 < xentrac> hmm, I'm not sure
19:21 < cluckj> was it?
19:21 < xentrac> it was
19:22 < cluckj> probably thermodynamics?
19:22 < maaku> I'm not questioning it -- I seem to recall the same trivia that Kelvin knew his gas-law estimation of the Sun's age was wrong
19:23 < maaku> but never thought to ask why he knew that
19:23 < xentrac> http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-age-of-the-sun-and-the-earth/ talks about it a bit
19:23 < xentrac> also says Kelvin's estimate was 32000 years!
19:24 < xentrac> it was the sun's future that he thought was limited to 300,000 years, not its past
19:25 < xentrac> then Thomson derived 22M years as its age
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19:27 < xentrac> I think this Scientific American article may date from before the discovery of fusion
19:30 < xentrac> "if the sun consists of a fraction of one per cent of radium, this will account for and make good the heat that is annually lost by it"
19:33 < xentrac> "As yet this substance has not been found in the sun, but the presence of helium, combined with the fact that helium may be obtained from radium, renders the presence of radium in the sun quite probable"!
19:34 < xentrac> so that's the state of knowledge in 1908
19:34 < xentrac> and it seems rather that Kelvin had persuaded the geologists that their estimate of billions of years as the age of the earth was clearly wrong
19:35 < kanzure> not sure whether radium/helium was sufficient reason
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19:37 < xentrac> well, you would think that the miraculous energy production of radium would have been enough to persuade him
19:38 < xentrac> but no, Kelvin bent over backwards to defend the idea that radium (and by extension other similar "radio-active" phenomena) probably didn't heat either the Earth or the Sun
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19:45 < docl> the ironic thing is that it might be easier to make a Dyson Sphere than a lot of the things we're trying to do, such as small-scale nuclear fusion or curing cancer. the Dyson Sphere only really needs a self replicating robot plus a scalable orbital organizational scheme. who knows how complicated curing cancer or fusing atoms will turn out to be?
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19:47 < xentrac> I worry that part of my enthusiasm for your point, docl, stems from my personal enthusiasm for bootstrapping self-replicating machinery :)
19:48 < xentrac> since the other two parts of the problem, distributed-system design and launching the machinery into a solar orbit, are eminently feasible
19:49 < kanzure> i am not actually interested in curing cancer
19:49 < Alcyius> Besides the fact that "curing cancer" is like saying that you want to "cure virus"
19:49 < docl> I feel like the concept of nanoassemblers has gotten way too much press. macroscale robotic replicators are just as possible, and depend a lot less on unknown hand wavy stuff.
19:50 < kanzure> why worry about amount of press?
19:50 < cluckj> just cure diabetes
19:50 < kanzure> brain uploading conveniently cuts out all of these problems
19:51 < kanzure> but you get different problems instead
19:51 < kanzure> possibly easier problems
19:51 < kanzure> especially if you are willing to chuck out memory and other junk like that
19:52 < cluckj> I like my brain right where it is
19:52 < kanzure> brain uploading isn't necessarily about *your* brain... let's set the sights a little bit lower. any brain would do, really.
19:53 < xentrac> docl: a lot of problems go away if you can assemble things atom by atom
19:53 < xentrac> I mean, there's a reason the SAE defines criteria for dozens of different kinds of steel
19:54 < docl> true enough
19:54 < kanzure> think of the health insurance savings of brain uploading
19:54 < kanzure> and healthcare savings
19:54 < xentrac> nearly each of them is optimal for some use, and often its merit exceeds that of other kinds of steel for that use by an order of magnitude or more
19:55 < xentrac> if you're assembling things out of bulk materials, you have to confront all of that complexity
19:55 < nmz787> i saw some mention of postscript
19:55 < xentrac> (and this is before you get to annealing vs. tempering vs. case-hardening...)
19:55 < docl> it's just that whenever the topic of self-replicating robots comes up people immediately jump to nanobots. and that's technically a different question. I mean, maybe we actually need to do terascale experimentation before we can get to the point of nanoassemblers.
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19:56 < nmz787> I am trying to load some postscript into inkscape to convert to vectors to try out on my small laser etcher
19:56 < xentrac> yeah, that's my old-fashioned masochism, nmz787
19:56 < kanzure> really tiny small laser etcher? or conventional consumer laser etcher.
19:56 < xentrac> maybe try running it through ps2eps first if you're having trouble, nmz787?
19:56 < nmz787> kanzure: both
19:56 < nmz787> well i had to install the latest inkscape version
19:56 < nmz787> lets see what happens now
19:57 < xentrac> I'm pretty sure even sodipodi had EPS import
19:57 < nmz787> i also don't know how to tell if inkscape actually outputs vectors or not
19:57 < kanzure> one of my mentors was involved in original postscript specification stuff, i think.
19:57 < nmz787> since I see this: http://blog.linuxgrrl.com/2013/08/12/how-to-produce-vector-eps-with-cmyk-color-using-free-software/
19:57 < xentrac> (pstoepsi is an alternative if ps2eps doesn't work)
19:57 < nmz787> i rememeber inkscape not producing vectors reliably years ago too
19:58 < kanzure> btw i told xentrac about your svg laser cutter test file
19:58 < docl> I think maybe there's a problem with trying to do everything "optimal"... you need it to be functional, but not necessarily optimal in the early stages of bootstrapping. you can bother with optimizing later on when you have a lot of factories working in parallel with each other.
19:58 < kanzure> dis one http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/diybio/mccorkle_tomkins-tinch_microchannels.svg
19:58 < xentrac> yeah, I looked at the test file and didn't think it helped with what I wanted to find out
19:58 < xentrac> docl: agreed
19:58 < nmz787> kanzure: yep... coreldraw was much more reliable
19:58 < kanzure> docl: we should ping freitas and complain about lack of progress. maybe he has something since AASM and kinematic self-replicating machines.
19:59 < kanzure> coreldraw--- i actually used that with my laser cutter. i completely forgot about that.
19:59 < xentrac> yeah, everybody runs their laser cutters with coreldraw
19:59 < nmz787> damn, I am in windows and ps2eps is easier to get on linux.... (i got here because I couldn't mount my windows partition from linux as it was in hibernate state)
20:00 < xentrac> kanzure: it would be interesting to hear what freitas is up to
20:00 < xentrac> nmz787: install it in cygwin or a virtual machine
20:00 < docl> kanzure: that would be awesome. Dani Eder is the only person I'm aware of that actively developing this area
20:00 < kanzure> dani eder keeps ignoring me, i hate him
20:00  * xentrac gives kanzure a hug
20:00 < docl> darn
20:00 < xentrac> I have no idea what else to recommend for vector format conversions on MSWindows, nmz787
20:01 < kanzure> all i demand is total domination over space matter and time what is so hard to appease about this
20:01 < nmz787> xentrac: rebooting will be easier than messing with cygwin
20:01 < xentrac> ps2eps (and friends), pstoepsi (and friends), pstoedit, and pstools are the things I have found useful in the past
20:01 < kanzure> docl: i think that eventually we'll figure out a good way to do http://gnusha.org/skdb but so far it has been hard to find people willing to review and speculate about easier ways to solve these problems.
20:02 < kanzure> docl: skdb was originally a way to get a bunch of hardware packages and then do search over the graph to find self-replication
20:02 < xentrac> yeah, I know
20:02 < kanzure> turns out though that self-replication sort of randomly happens if you just randomly populate a board with different operations,
20:02 < kanzure> http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/ai/The%20evolution%20of%20self-replicating%20computer%20organisms%20-%20A.%20N.%20Pargellis.pdf
20:02 < xentrac> we're just so far from that right now
20:03 < kanzure> which might have interesting implications for self-replication
20:03 < kanzure> erm i mean hardware self-replication
20:03 < kanzure> ... hardware self-replication *bootstrapping* in particular
20:03 < xentrac> yes.  unfortunately the hardware world is full of inconvenient conservation laws, plus the Third Law, which make that harder
20:04 < kanzure> origin of life stuff (like via andrew ellington etc) has shown that many rna origins were of the type to support simple self-replication precursors similar to that computational simulation (er, except, with actual molecules and polymer chemistry and stuff)
20:05 < kanzure> but that probably benefited from immensely massive parallelism
20:05 < kanzure> hooking up random bits of hardware until self-replication precursors emerge... does not seem productive.
20:05 < kanzure> s/emerge/happen
20:06 < xentrac> I don't think self-replicating hardware from natural materials will be that hard
20:06 < xentrac> I feel like I kind of have a handle on the problem now
20:06 < kanzure> also, we already have (biological) self-replication so we should probably continue hijacking that
20:06 < kanzure> what sorta handle?
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20:07 < kanzure> i wonder if freitas' book cites nick szabo's clay clanking replicator.
20:08 < xentrac> well, you probably want planar semiconductor fabrication, just because it's so many orders of magnitude ahead of the alternatives
20:08 < kanzure> alright. so that probably requires spatial light modulation somewhere...
20:09 < kanzure> and lithography things.
20:09 < xentrac> sure, but SLM is just planar semiconductor fabrication
20:09 < xentrac> you might be able to get by at low efficiency with direct laser writing too
20:09 < kanzure> do you have additional parts of the answer? or just that :p
20:09 < xentrac> but you need to be able to smelt bulk silicon and aluminum
20:10 < xentrac> aluminum can answer nearly all structural and conduction needs adequately, except springs
20:11 < xentrac> 6061 aluminum is aluminum alloyed with magnesium and silicon, so you need magnesium for that; I'm not sure if a plain aluminum-silicon alloy is adequately strong, but it's certainly better than just plain aluminum
20:11 < kanzure> i agree that planar semiconductor fabrication is a useful piece of the puzzle. planar manufacturing in general seems to simplify many parts of the overall problem space.
20:12 < kanzure> although i haven't figured out how to do planar manufacturing of multi-kilo-newton engines or actuators
20:13 < xentrac> well, most of the fabrication of electric motors or generators is already planar
20:14 < xentrac> Jacques Mattheij's automated fabrication tool for his windmill project was just a CNC plasma torch table
20:15 < xentrac> low-frequency magnetic machines like that benefit enormously from high-permeability alloys, though, and those are almost all iron-based
20:15 < xentrac> so if you can avoid that entirely, it simplifies the picture a lot
20:16 < xentrac> you can get actuators or motors out of piezoelectric or magnetostrictive materials, but you can also get them entirely out of coils of aluminum wire — at the cost of low efficiency
20:18 < xentrac> you can do all kinds of structural and machinery stuff just cutting shit out of sheets of aluminum and jamming it together
20:19 < docl> seems like having cheap access to a large vacuum chamber would make it a lot easier to design stuff optimized for space/lunar conditions.
20:20 < kanzure> in 2007 for some reason i spent a tremendous amount of time looking into the design and fabrication of ultra-high vacuum chambers.
20:20 < kanzure> this was actually how i ended up meeting and then forgetting azonenberg's roommatte long before he met azonenberg..... oops.
20:20 < kanzure> *roommate
20:21 < xentrac> so you need aluminum smelting cells, for which you need a reactor to produce cryolite, and graphite; silicon smelting and zone refining; general-purpose furnaces for materials processing; high-precision robot arms; and cutting torches
20:21 < xentrac> I'm not sure if you can get by without lasers
20:21 < xentrac> I mean, practically
20:22 < kanzure> ((context: it wasn't until much later that i realized that azonenberg's roommate person was someone i had met previously; i thought i only knew azonenberg because of azonenberg things.))
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20:22 < xentrac> normal silicon smelting consumes charcoal in an arc furnace
20:23 < docl> kanzure: did you find any good designs for making really big hard vacuum chambers? maybe it would help to put remote controlled robots on the inside and let hackers remotely try to create projects using them.
20:23 < xentrac> I'm handwaving a bit about the chemical plant process design aspects, but I feel like they are fairly well understood
20:24 < docl> xentrac: it seems like lasers let you get out of a lot of stuff, like arc welders or drill bits.
20:24 < kanzure> damn... no results: http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/atom_holography_notes.html
20:24 < xentrac> yeah, although plasma torches get you out of drill bits to some extent too ;)
20:24 < xentrac> you need a pretty big fiber laser to not need a drill bit for aluminum though
20:25 < xentrac> I think a drill bit might be a better bargain
20:25 < kanzure> 16:18 < pmetzger> doing SPM based nano bootstrap requires UHV I think, though Merkle has talked about using systems with pure argon atmospheres during bootstrap.
20:25 < kanzure> 16:19 < kanzure> hehe with a good page on how to construct an atom laser: http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/atom_holography_notes.html
20:25 < docl> hmm. 3d printing the preforms for fiber optics is a thing now
20:25 < kanzure> from http://gnusha.org/logs/2010-06-15.log
20:26 < kanzure> 16:17 < kanzure> i was looking into building UHV chambers a few years ago
20:26 < kanzure> 16:17 < kanzure> i was super interested in bose-einstein condensates
20:26 < kanzure> 16:18 < kanzure> for some reason it turned into a von neumann probe page for me http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/
20:26 < kanzure> 16:18 < kanzure> because i was interested in atom holography
20:26 < kanzure> 16:18 < kanzure> has some good uhv howto links on that page though :)
20:26 < kanzure> huh.
20:26 < xentrac> (also apparently zone refining won't give you electronics-grade silicon)
20:27 < xentrac> (so a bit of what I said above is wrong)
20:27 < kanzure> huh did i have a data loss event
20:28 < xentrac> (hmm, maybe it will give it to you and is just not used nowadays because the other methods are more efficient)
20:29 < kanzure> i should read the logs
20:30 < maaku> yeah was about to tell you regarding the 404
20:31 < xentrac> kanzure: I'm not finding Szabo's clay-clanking-replicator proposal
20:32 < kanzure> 199x post to some usenet newsgroup
20:32 < xentrac> well, I did find a 199x Szabo clanking replicator post
20:32 < xentrac> but it was about legos
20:33 < kanzure> i seem to mention it here https://groups.google.com/d/msg/openmanufacturing/Sdwr1W1JqNo/zcKmFrgCRjQJ
20:33 < kanzure> maybe not
20:33 < xentrac> clay is pretty nice if you can get it; you can build furnaces for firing clay out of clay
20:33 < kanzure> "Excerpts from KSRM on "closure engineering" -- http://groups.google.com/group/openmanufacturing/msg/4ff7a92e2425dde2 "
20:33 < kanzure> "szabo: no results found" (for openmanufacturing) whaaaat
20:34 < kanzure> god damn time slips wtf
20:34 < xentrac> I don't think it will work very well on orbit between Mars and the asteroid belt
20:34 < kanzure> "In 1998, Chris Phoenix suggested a general idea for a macroscale replicator on the sci.nanotech newsgroup, operating in a pool of ultraviolet-cured liquid plastic, selectively solidifying the plastic to form solid parts. Computation could be done by fluidic logic. Power for the process could be supplied by a pressurized source of the liquid."
20:34 < kanzure> "In 1995, Nick Szabo proposed a challenge to build a macroscale replicator from Lego(tm) robot kits and similar basic parts. Szabo wrote that this approach was easier than previous proposals for macroscale replicators, but successfully predicted that even this method would not lead to a macroscale replicator within ten years."
20:34 < kanzure> chris phoenix proposal http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&selm=6f0nui%248ih%241%40news.nanospace.com
20:34 < kanzure> nick szabo proposal http://www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/macro.html
20:35 < kanzure> 404....
20:35 < xentrac> that's the one I just read
20:35 < kanzure> i have a backup of lucifer.com but it's just something i stole in 2014 so it wont have this
20:35 < kanzure> http://web.archive.org/web/20000305141204/http://www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/macro.html
20:35 < xentrac> yeah
20:36 < kanzure> To: extropians@waterville.warwick.com, if-sci@lucifer.com
20:36 < kanzure> i was not aware of an extropians mailing list on that server
20:36 < maaku> docl: maybe work on sand-crawlers across the sahara, shitting out roads and fiber optic cables?
20:36 < kanzure> merely these things http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/irc/extropians/
20:36 < maaku> docl: more interesting as a target is a self-replicating lunar base imho
20:37 < xentrac> wouldn't be surprising if *.warwick.com aliased to a single mail routing system
20:37 < maaku> but the digital matter of nanotech is so much easier to work with
20:38 < xentrac> the desert is more accessible
20:38 < kanzure> yeah i don't see anything about a clay clanking replicator
20:38 < kanzure> this seems like something fenn will remember though
20:38 < xentrac> subterranean realms also
20:39 < docl> well, if you can 3d print the preforms and the drawing tower, and also create a laser from the fiber, then all you need is for everything else to be dependent on the laser(s).
20:39 < xentrac> agreed
20:40 < xentrac> you need erbium refining or something for the fiber, don't you?  or are there less exotic phosphors that can work adequately?
20:42 < erasmus> I want a 3D printer
20:42 < erasmus> but the large ones are still expensive
20:42 < erasmus> if I had one then I could make this  https://github.com/OpenBCI/Ultracortex/tree/master/Mark_3
20:43 < xentrac> I'm less and less enthusiastic about 3D printers, even as they get better
20:43 < kanzure> capthindsight is all about 2d printers and 6-axis 2d printers. so you're in good company. (oops i guess not; where did he go?)
20:43 < xentrac> honestly that particular thing looks like you could do a nearly equally good job by cutting holes in a baseball cap
20:44 < xentrac> the dry electrodes are the interesting part, and they aren't printable
20:45 < xentrac> (and the circuit board, which likewise)
20:47 < docl> what purpose does the erbium serve? does it simply generate light of the desired frequency?
20:48 < docl> it seems like you could simply use an optical filter to grab the desired frequency from sunlight.
20:48 < xentrac> it fluoresces
20:48 < xentrac> a laser works by having a "population inversion" among atoms capable of emitting light at the desired frequency
20:49 < xentrac> normally most of those atoms are in their ground state, so photons of that energy are more likely to be absorbed (exciting an atom) than to be emitted (allowing an excited atom to relax to the ground state)
20:49 < xentrac> which means that as light travels through regular glass, for example, gradually more and more of the red and blue parts of the spectrum are absorbed by different excitable atoms
20:50 < xentrac> if you "invert" these populations, so that more of the atoms are in the excited state than in the ground state, emission becomes more likely than absorption, and the object glows instead of absorbing light
20:51 < xentrac> in a laser, this happens in a process called "stimulated emission", which was super obvious when I read Feynman but now I can't explain adequately
20:51 < xentrac> suggesting a fluency illusion I need to debug
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20:52 < xentrac> so what you do is that first you "pump" the emitting atoms, so that most of them are excited, and then you either wait or you hit the laser with a small stimulus pulse
20:52 < xentrac> you can pump them in lots of ways
20:52 < xentrac> sunlight is one
20:53 < maaku> xentrac: there isn't an economic need for self-replicating robots anywhere on Earth though, even the desert
20:53 < xentrac> but the intensity of the sunlight matters
20:53 < maaku> it makes tremendous sense for lunar resource development, however
20:53 < xentrac> maaku: not until about 2025 maybe?
20:53 < maaku> why 2025?
20:54 < kanzure> seems to be large need for biological self-replicating robots on earth. non-biological self-replication would also be very helpful, such as for tooling and equipment reasons.
20:54 < maaku> kanzure: helpful, but i'm talking opportunity costs because tech is expensive
20:54 < kanzure> although previously many manufacturing implements were the result of dead biological self-replicators
20:54 < kanzure> oh right opportunity cost. right, right.
20:54 < maaku> note price to delivery to lunar surface is about $40k/lb
20:54 < maaku> and only in small quantities
20:54 < maaku> and thanks to the wonder of impact dynamics, the regolith is a fine powder of various ores
20:55 < xentrac> that's about the time photovoltaic production starts to amount to a significant part of human energy production
20:55 < maaku> xentrac: so have a human built factory building tons of solar panels, and people setting them up ... not sure why the robotic complications are necessary
20:55 < docl> if you could actually make them work, there be plenty of demand for Earth based self-replicating robots.
20:56 < xentrac> or I guess human marketed energy production
20:56 < docl> it's basically free money, power, goods, equipment...
20:56 < xentrac> maaku: did you see the wired article about the single-purpose CNC mill whose purpose I won't mention?
20:56 < maaku> docl: you are significantly more optimistic than me at its ability to operate without intervention :)
20:56 < kanzure> was the purpose to annoy me? i bet it was to annoy me.
20:57 < xentrac> heh, no, it was to avoid triggering keyword filters
20:57 < maaku> hahaaha (and no, I didn't)
20:57 < xentrac> the guy talked about the enormous difference between trying to do the machining by hand and doing it on the CNC mill that did the same thing
20:57 < xentrac> basically because he isn't a master machinist he had no hope of completing the task by hand
20:58 < xentrac> a Santa Claus Machine could eliminate human poverty if people aren't denied access to it
20:58 < xentrac> although given how Wikipedia is less popular than cat photos I'm not sure how well people will use it
21:00 < kanzure> so what you're saying is the lego instruction booklet generator needs to include cat pics?
21:00 < maaku> xentrac: you seem young. youthful enthusiasm is good. don't get dissuaded by old farts like me that are too cynical to think such ideas would work
21:00 < kanzure> xentrac is older than dirt
21:00 < xentrac> heh, I'm 39
21:00 < docl> maaku: if we're talking about partially automated factories, the reason there's demand on earth is because nobody wants to launch an untested concept to the moon.
21:00 < xentrac> and that's only in this body!
21:01 < maaku> hah! ok. I'm only 31
21:01 < kanzure> buncha old farts in here
21:01 < maaku> docl: well yeah, obviously you test it here on earth
21:02 < maaku> I'm just doubtful an economic argument can be made for use on earth vs alternatives
21:02 < xentrac> the flip side of the santa claus machine is that if it can self-replicate solar panels then you can manage a lot more concentration of wealth if it doesn't require employees to man the factory
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21:02 < maaku> i mean obviously if the tech was fully developed and bug-free, it'd get used
21:02 < maaku> but you'd run out of funding getting to that point
21:02 < xentrac> which is also an economic argument: as founders and investors of the startup, you get to keep all of the value it produces, instead of paying the majority of it to employees
21:03 < xentrac> this is the kind of economic structure that has historically led to disasters like Anaconda Copper and Nauru
21:03 < maaku> whereas even if you have to use remotely operated vehicles driven by people at mission control to debug a lunar self-replicator, and a fully-staffed regolith analog lab where you try stuff out, it's still cheaper than sending smelters and other industrial equipment to the moon
21:04 < docl> well you can't necessarily test everything on earth because stuff that relies on low gravity doesn't work here. Also, vacuum chambers of the size that were talking about tend to be kind of expensive. at some point it might actually be a lot cheaper to simply test it in space.
21:04 < maaku> xentrac: I'll buy that argument for molecular nanotech, which I consider a simpler proposition
21:04 < xentrac> MNT would also have that effect, yes
21:04 < xentrac> well, all of those effects
21:05 < xentrac> the distribution of access to it will make all the difference
21:05 < maaku> It is my informed opinion that the only thing holding up MNT is funding at this point. There's a clear path forward, just needs lots of money to do it. (So I work on bitcoin)
21:05 < xentrac> I suspect that groups that manage to get many people to participate in the process of invention and debugging will do better than groups that don't
21:06 < xentrac> presumably Satoshi would be funding MNT if he cared ;)
21:06 < maaku> for macro self-replication, I'm not so sure ... there's a lot of complexity to be tamed, and it seems to me a much more unsolved problem as a result
21:06 < maaku> maybe that is my own ignorance, however
21:06 < kanzure> hal should have setup a bitcoin/crytonics fund on his way out
21:06 < xentrac> no, I think you're right that there's a lot of complexity and unsolved problems involved
21:07 < xentrac> I don't really know whether it's easier or harder than the Nanorex angle on MNT
21:07 < maaku> macro self-replicating machines seems like an AGI-complete problem, just given the complexity of unconstrained environments (and if you constrain the environment too much, it gets less interesting)
21:08 < xentrac> which I assume is what kanzure means
21:08 < maaku> xentrac: Nanorex angle?
21:08 < kanzure> nanorex was https://github.com/kanzure/nanoengineer
21:08 < maaku> (Although -- last thing I'll say on this -- lunar environment is naturally highly constrained.)
21:08 < xentrac> right
21:08 < xentrac> I think the Atacama is too
21:09 < xentrac> the temperature range is even lower!
21:09 < maaku> right just not sure what "Nanorex angle on MNT" meant
21:09 < maaku> xentrac: so long as sand provides what you need. sand on earth is basically silica. regolith is an even mixture of highly enriched ores.
21:10 < xentrac> I should let kanzure explain Nanorex's plan in more detail if he feels like it, since I have only a glancing acquaintance
21:10 < xentrac> yes, that is true
21:10 < xentrac> but lacking, for example, hydrogen
21:10 < kanzure> no- please continue
21:10 < kanzure> also i am afk
21:11 < maaku> xentrac: that's why you'd operate at the poles
21:11 < maaku> cold is a problem though
21:12 < maaku> i'm about to be afk too
21:12 < xentrac> yeah, I should be too
21:13 < maaku> I will mention I have a business idea for jump-starting private space industry and self-replicating lunar bases via commodity markets using Blockstream technology and the clever application of legal jurisdictions
21:14 < maaku> If anyone wants to do that, let  me know. I sincerely doubt I'll get around to it given priorities.
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21:56 < erasmus> my cats breath smells like catfood
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22:06 < docl> what information do we have about creating ultrahard vacuums?
22:07 < poppingtonic> https://xkcd.com/1619/
22:17 < docl> http://www.cloudynights.com/topic/466140-diy-aluminizing-chamber/
22:22 < justanotheruser> ultra high vacuum?
22:23 < justanotheruser> or do you actually mean ultrahard vacuum
22:25 < docl> http://www.belljar.net/basics.htm
22:25 < docl> is there a difference?
22:28 < docl> I've heard the vacuum of space referred to as hard vacuum, but ultra high vacuum seems to be a common term as well.
22:28 < justanotheruser> I have never heard of it myself
22:30 < docl> I'm thinking hard is probably a less formal term when applied to vacuum
22:31 < docl> "ultrahard vacuum" might just be a malapropism on my part
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22:51 < docl> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high_vacuum
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23:23 -!- Madplatypus [uid19957@gateway/web/irccloud.com/x-falznafctrcdjkkh] has joined ##hplusroadmap
23:26 -!- nmz787_i [ntmccork@nat/intel/x-baoczqttcjasbcqf] has joined ##hplusroadmap
23:40 -!- nmz787_i [ntmccork@nat/intel/x-baoczqttcjasbcqf] has quit [Quit: Leaving.]
23:41 -!- |node [uid125132@gateway/web/irccloud.com/x-tmazfrxeeusxeylc] has quit [Quit: Connection closed for inactivity]
--- Log closed Wed Dec 23 00:00:44 2015