--- Log opened Sat Feb 29 00:00:09 2020
00:04 < fltrz> coronvfefe
00:05 < fltrz> coronanberg
00:05 < fltrz> CoronalMcDocald
00:05 < fltrz> *CoronaldMcDocald
00:06 < fltrz> *.. whatever you know
00:06 < fltrz> Coron-apetit!
00:07 < fltrz> or corona-petit?
00:08 < fltrz> coron-aleikum
00:09 < fltrz> but nothing tops "corona discharge" imho
00:13 < fltrz> corona-be-gonna
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00:19 < fltrz> Coronamine C
00:20 < fltrz> crack corona
00:20 < fltrz> *crack cocorona
00:26 < fltrz> copa corona
00:28 < fltrz> Alays Coca Corona
00:31 < fltrz> coronasquatsi
00:36 < fltrz> quid pro quorona
00:37 < fltrz> "something first / before corona"
00:37 < fltrz> pop-corona
01:00 < TMA> going with the "Coronald McDonald":
01:00 < TMA> Kentucky Fried Corona
01:01 < TMA> Subcorona / Coronaway
01:01 < TMA> Corona King
01:01 < TMA> Corondys
01:01 < TMA> Corona Hut
01:02 < TMA> and of course... iCorona
01:38 < fltrz> lol
01:38 < fltrz> macarona cheese
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07:01 < kanzure> .wik pandemic bonds
07:01 < saxo> "The Pandemic Emergency Finance Facility (abbreviated as PEF) is a financing mechanism to provide money to assist with the management of a pandemic outbreak. It is provided by the World Bank, who have raised the money via the issuance of bonds." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_emergency_financing_facility
07:01 < kanzure> no...
07:01 < kanzure> well maybe.
07:16 < kanzure> .title https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/diybio/8254eab6-7e39-4f50-855f-11ea67da3c9a%40googlegroups.com
07:16 < saxo> Google Groups
07:17 < kanzure> rage
07:25 < lsneff> Technically correct
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07:27 < kanzure> bioviva's "please give us venture capital" email is super weird- it includes quotes from warren buffet (who has never commented on this company), typos, and an argument that since microsoft and coca cola were successful then that's a reason to invest in bioviva. wtf?
07:27 < kanzure> is this email even legal? if they are a US company then this is ungood.
07:34 < fenn> pop quiz time
07:34 < fenn> 1% of people tested have coronavirus. the test is 99% accurate. of the people who tested positive, what fraction actually have coronavirus?
07:35 < fenn> repeat for 90% accurate test etc
07:40 < yashgaroth> now now, accuracy is a meaningless term, what are the sensitivity and specificity of the test
07:42 < fenn> i like your style
07:44 < yashgaroth> also a 90% accurate coronavirus test is a pipe dream right now, much less 99%
07:45 < kanzure> evidently the pandemic bonds are tied to the world health organization declaring a pandemic
07:45 < kanzure> and since the rates are so high, the concern is that the world health organization might be pressured to not trigger the bond payments
07:45 < kanzure> for "systemic stability" reosns
07:45 < kanzure> reasons.
07:51 < yashgaroth> well it is for systemic stability reasons, but pandemic bonds or w/e are only a small fraction of that...it didn't take a pandemic declaration for the stock market to tank 15%
08:11 < maaku> fenn: the false positive rate is unspecified?
08:12 < fenn> the false positive rate is 1%; the false negative rate is 1%
08:14 < fenn> i suppose there should be a category for "huh? *squint*" but the point was to illustrate the base rate fallacy
08:14 < maaku> then 50% and 8.3% are your answers
08:16 < maaku> Of course this doesn't matter in the real world since clinical testing is restricted to those who show symptoms, so the base rate is high
08:30 < kanzure> justanotheruser: weren't you doing a pandemic bond marketplace just a few months ago?
08:30 < justanotheruser> kanzure: catastrophe derivatives, but yes
08:30 < justanotheruser> still doing that
08:31 < kanzure> good timing
08:31 < justanotheruser> indeed
08:31 < justanotheruser> the reinsurance market is moving quickly to the capital markets
08:32 < justanotheruser> 10 years ago, 5% of capital at risk was in the capital markets, now its 20%
08:32 < justanotheruser> reinsurance capital at risk*
08:33 < justanotheruser> world bank had really good timing on these bonds too, the first pandemic cat bond is being defaulted on
08:35 < justanotheruser> really weird they decided to tie the bonds to something so greatly influenced by politics (WHO).
08:36 < kanzure> any way to short that market?
08:36 < justanotheruser> pandemics? That cat bond isn't publicly traded
08:36 < justanotheruser> maybe you could short a life reinsurance company, or a basket of chinese exporters
08:41 < justanotheruser> what have you been working on lately?
08:42 < kanzure> pm
08:42 < kanzure> also maaku and yashgaroth are working on a coronavirus vaccine (coro-nope)
08:43 < kanzure> finishing up some work on a cold storage prototype to be released to the mailing list soon
08:47 < justanotheruser> Neat. I don't know much about vaccines, but wouldn't it be tough to compete with major firms already doing this?
08:50 < kanzure> the only competition here is putting something together with some public documentation- something that major firms would never do
08:50 < kanzure> it's not a product
08:55 < justanotheruser> I see. Then I guess the only real competition is against other mitigation efforts
08:55 < justanotheruser> it seems the disease is in decline in china, but still growing in the rest of the world.
08:56 < kanzure> goal is to just release some plasmid designs and maybe produce a few nanograms i don't know
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09:55 < fmnspv> @search James S Monroe
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10:10 < kanzure> .title https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fb9i2u/intentionally_spread_the_coronavirus_to_make_your/
10:10 < saxo> Intentionally spread the Coronavirus to make your $SPY puts go up : wallstreetbets
10:20 < lsneff> Good old wsb
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22:20 < fltrz> does anyone here have experience with disinfection chambers? I am looking for a high reflectance *specular* reflector for a UV-C chamber (260nm-275nm)
22:22 < fltrz> random aluminum foil is ~80%, aluminized glass ~90%, but ePTFE (expanded PTFE) has a reflectance of 94+%
22:23 < fltrz> a ray of light will do ln(0.80)/ln(0.94) = 3.6 times as many reflections on ePTFE as on aluminum...
22:25 < fltrz> but diffuse reflection is less controlled than specular reflection, which can decrease efficiency if you want to have the light reflect predominantly along the length of a relatively long chamber
22:26 < fltrz> and fluence (UV dose) calculations are much easier when using a specular reflector, as you can avoid monte carlo simulations and their gotcha's by realizing a single light source results in a regular grid / lattice of light source reflection...
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--- Log closed Sun Mar 01 00:00:10 2020