--- Log opened Sat Aug 08 00:00:42 2020
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05:54 < andytoshi> .title https://www.fda.gov/media/131130/download
05:54 < saxo> Sorry, page isn't HTML
05:54 < andytoshi> “Drug Shortages: Root Causes and Potential Solutions,” U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) (2019).
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08:03 < Malvolio> does anyone have some good motivational posters like for printing out
08:05 < L29Ah> Malvolio: https://i.imgur.com/YLInLlY.png
08:05 < L29Ah> optilized for A3
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09:48 < Malvolio> um thanks L29Ah
09:50 < kanzure> http://www.righto.com/2020/08/latches-inside-reverse-engineering.html
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10:52 < kanzure> ./install.sh peter thiel brain slug https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61dKF-xODaQ
11:14 < L29Ah> what's there
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13:47 < fenn> Malvolio: i've got this on my wall http://www.astro.rug.nl/~oberg/bfs.jpg
13:49 < lsneff> Malvolio: If you can find a higher resolution copy, the integrated space plan is a good one: https://images.fastcompany.net/image/upload/w_596,c_limit,q_auto:best,f_auto/wp-cms/uploads/2015/09/3051028-inline-i-1-the-ultimate-space-porn-chart-gets-a-modern-design-overhaul.png
13:50 < fenn> the color one is not a striking as the old black and white one from the 80s
13:51 < fenn> here's a thing http://cdn.makezine.com/uploads/2013/07/integratedspaceplan2color.pdf
13:54 < L29Ah> 23:47:02]<fenn> Malvolio: i've got this on my wall http://www.astro.rug.nl/~oberg/bfs.jpg
13:54 < L29Ah> wtf so much space for meatbags' leisure
13:54 < L29Ah> not gonna happen
13:56 < Malvolio> oo
13:58 < fenn> L29Ah: i agree the central corridor is kind of wasted space, but the number of cabins roughly matches the "100 passengers" promised by musk, so meh
13:59 < L29Ah> oh, yeah you can squish those 100 into the corrodor
14:00 < fenn> it's not a slave ship
14:00 < L29Ah> yes it is
14:00 < fenn> go on
14:00 < L29Ah> except the slaves are selected among the happiest of those desiring to join you in your mars conquest
14:01 < fenn> well anyway volume is cheaper than mass
14:01 < lsneff> I'm still confused of how they're going to fit enough sits that work in both launch and reentry orientations + cabins
14:01 < L29Ah> as every meatbag place costs a few dozens lifetimes of other meatbags on earth
14:02 < fenn> $500k is "a fre dozen lifetimes" worth of money? huh?
14:02 < L29Ah> so the sponsors expect the flying ones to follow their plans and orders
14:02 < fenn> few*
14:03 < L29Ah> $500k, really? that's surprisingly cheap even for spacex
14:03 < fenn> they are even talking about $200k but i have my doubts
14:03 < fenn> in any case you'll need more stuff than just a seat
14:04 < L29Ah> if it's really $500k, we may expect US city dwellers to join the fun en masse
14:05 < L29Ah> not sure though if the higher politics would permit small scale private initiatives though
14:05 < L29Ah> // The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress
14:07 < TMA> the average value of human life is quite low -- there are too many humans
14:08 < fenn> i think you meant the median value
14:08 < fenn> for US citizens the EPA uses $2.2 million
14:09 < TMA> the figure I heard for an Afghani was $200
14:10 < fenn> even if we consider the value of non-US citizens to be zero, that's still $100k per person, so "a few dozen lives" is still not enough to validate L29Ah's claim
14:10 < fenn> on average
14:10 < L29Ah> the figure for .ru estimated from GDP is $90k
14:11 < L29Ah> .cn is probably similar
14:11 < TMA> and the people in the former soviet bloc are calculated as $65000
14:12 < fenn> per what
14:13 < fenn> i think GDP is a stupid metric anyway
14:13 < fenn> i was using the utilitarian value of a life for risk planning purposes
14:14 < fenn> http://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/mortality-risk-valuation
14:14 < L29Ah> the average income-based value is the same
14:14 < fenn> i would be very surprised if that were true
14:14 < L29Ah> wikipedia lists https://web.archive.org/web/20170516215934/http://www.dex.ru/riskjournal/2007/2007_4_2/178-191.pdf as the source
14:15 < fenn> please link to the wikipedia article
14:15 < L29Ah> https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Стоимость_человеческой_жизни
14:16 < fenn> they don't even mention the EPA's subjective risk tradeoff evaluation method
14:17 < fenn> "Suppose each person in a sample of 100,000 people were asked how much he or she would be willing to pay for a reduction in their individual risk of dying of 1 in 100,000, or 0.001%, over the next year. Since this reduction in risk would mean that we would expect one fewer death among the sample of 100,000 people over the next year on average, this is sometimes described as "one statistical life
14:17 < fenn> saved.” Now suppose that the average response to this hypothetical question was $100. Then the total dollar amount that the group would be willing to pay to save one statistical life in a year would be $100 per person × 100,000 people, or $10 million."
14:18 < fenn> anyway i am sorry you are all so poor
14:19  * TMA ponders, what is the "value of life". the quoted estimation method is not reliable enough (people are not able to answer the question meaningfully)
14:19 < L29Ah> so, are you going to buy the ticket before 2030?
14:20 < L29Ah> TMA: there a lot of evaluation methods outlined in the russian wikipedia article
14:25 < lsneff> I would absolutely buy a ticket.
14:25 < lsneff> I don't know that I have 200k in cash floating around though.
14:26 < L29Ah> you have at least a few years to stockpile
14:27 < fenn> it's not a one-time deal, and the price will come down over time. i'd be surprised if they were selling $200k tickets in 2030 simply due to development schedules
14:28 < fenn> and as zubrin likes to point out, you can't amortize the cost of a spaceship 10x in 10 years if there's only a launch window every 2 years
14:28 < L29Ah> interpreting vague answer as "no"
14:29 < fenn> i have no idea. 10 years is a long time
14:29 < fenn> i don't expect things to be really set up by then
14:30 < fenn> even if there are regular passenger flights to mars in 2030, the infrastructure won't be scaled up enough to support demand, so there's going to be an intense selection process, and i probably wouldn't make the cut
14:30 < fenn> so i'll have to wait for the mars economy to scale up first
14:30 < L29Ah> it won't scale up by itself, you know
14:31  * TMA will be dead or at least too frail to go by then
14:32 < L29Ah> as if you can put one human on mars for the (quite long) lifetime for $200k, you can put two of them for $400k
14:32 < fenn> there is a lot of mars-bound technology development work to be done on earth, for which currently there's no capital available because it doesn't seem "real" yet
14:32 < L29Ah> just depends on whether you're ready to take the risks of being among the first settlers
14:32 < fenn> i mean i can't even buy a space suit ffs
14:33 < L29Ah> space suits aren't rocket science
14:33 < fenn> exactly
14:33 < L29Ah> you can make one out of junkyard scrap and some elbow grease
14:34 < L29Ah> if you have the tools to test it
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14:35 < L29Ah> but generally you don't need many of those for a martian colony as most of people are going to hide underground anyway
14:35 < fenn> by "scale up" i mean there is not enough food and water and living space and power and so on
14:35 < L29Ah> there's zero now
14:35 < fenn> it needs to get built and grown and mined and that takes time
14:35 < fenn> it's an exponential process
14:36 < fenn> the first ones will have to take all that with them, or more likely have multiple cargo deliveries landed before they even launch
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--- Log closed Sun Aug 09 00:00:45 2020