--- Log opened Sun Dec 05 00:00:52 2021
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01:46 < muurkha> it turns out steels don't have a fatigue limit either, at least the ones that have been tested thoroughly
01:47 < darsie> What else?
01:47 < muurkha> (aluminum was what feen was talking about)
01:48 < muurkha> now that we can test steel to trillions of loading cycles, it turns out the power law fatigue thing just keeps going
01:52 < muurkha> US$5/kg is insane, no more cubesats
02:00  * darsie read up from the public log.
02:03 < muurkha> probably better to use steel if it's really US$5/kg
02:04 < muurkha> cubesats will be uneconomic from a regulatory compliance point of view
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02:50 < fenn> yeah you'll want a shared bus/rack that provides attitude, power, telemetry, communications, upmass, downmass, etc
02:50 < fenn> http://tmp2.fandom.com/wiki/Modular_Unmanned_Orbital_Laboratory_-_MUOL
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03:54 < maaku> fenn: I sincerely doubt starship will launch payloads for less than $20/kg marginal costs, $50-$200/kg to the customer.
03:54 < maaku> $5/kg is the price of fuel alone
04:04 < fenn> fuel costs vary wildly
04:05 < fenn> this is a far-future amortized cost
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05:52 < docl> in the context of far-future amortized costs you really get a good deal with orbital rings. you can ship power directly from orbit, and most of the power you use getting to orbit is stored in the kinetic ring.
05:59 < docl> I just can't see big tethers being a thing without massive opportunity costs and risks. they take up a lot of room as they rotate. if you have two tethers cross paths at orbital speeds they get severed. and a severed tether end goes in a random direction. plus they have more tension on them than just getting out of earth's gravity well, the centrifugal force also pulls on them. so you need more high 
05:59 < docl> tensile materials per ton shipped. with orbital rings most of the centrifugal force is countered by gravity.
06:03 < docl> the kinetic ring is *not* under constant tensile force
06:06 < andytoshi> https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2021/12/05/surveillance-publishing/
06:20 < lsneff> Does SiFive open-source their cores? It’s surprising difficult to tell.
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07:54 < L29Ah> 14:54:46]<maaku> $5/kg is the price of fuel alone
07:54 < L29Ah> [citation needed]
07:54 < L29Ah> or do you mean /kg-payload-to-LEO
07:54 < L29Ah> ?
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08:26 < docl> I think it's closer to $10/kg for fuel... $35/kg is probably the sane estimate including the rocket cost
08:26 < docl> even $5 can be beaten with orbital rings though
09:20 < lsneff> Weren't people saying that < $50/kg to leo was a very low estimate for starship just a year ago?
09:20 < lsneff> When did the estimate drop to $35/kg
09:40 < docl> various numbers have been floating around longer than that. I think I got $35 from this blog https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/10/29/the-spacex-starship-is-a-very-big-deal/
09:40 < docl> .title
09:40 < saxo> The SpaceX Starship is a very big deal – Casey Handmer's blog
09:41 < docl> also this tweet from elon says $10
09:41 < docl> .tw 1258580078218412033
09:41 < saxo> @flcnhvy @Erdayastronaut @ValkyrieBaron11 @NASASpaceflight Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 & 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg. (@elonmusk, in reply to tw:1258480563784232965)
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12:08 < lsneff> Wow, that would be three orders of magnitude cheaper than SLS
12:24 < muurkha> even US$200/kg is low enough to make cubesats uneconomical
12:42 < lsneff> I guess so. Launch costs would be insignificant compares to the cost of the cubesat itself.
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16:12 < muurkha> lsneff: not at US$200/kg
16:13 < muurkha> what I mean is that launch costs would be insignificant compared to the cost of making sure it isn't a weapon or unlicensed thermal IR camera or whatever governments don't want in space
16:14 < L29Ah> btw where can i get some cheap unlicensed thermal cameras?
16:14 < L29Ah> also i demand ballistic delivery from aliexpress
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16:53 <+gnusha> https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=28d9b658 detetivepro1:  >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/index/
17:08 < maaku> L29Ah: Zubrin does an estimate in the beginning of Case for Space. IIRC (though my memory is usually shit), he came to a lowest possible recurring cost of $5/kg to LEO, then used a 4x multiplier common to aircraft to get an amortized operating cost of $20/kg
17:09 < maaku> It's an actual book and I don't have it near me so I can't look it up, sorry.
17:10 < maaku> muurkha: SpaceX entered starship in a cubesat launch contract bid. It was the cheapest bid. Total power flex.
17:11 < maaku> lsneff: there is a HUGE market opportunity for decreasing the cost of space hardware
17:12 < maaku> You can't literally use off-the-shelf hardware for a variety of reasons, but space-certified stuff is crazy expensive because it's all used in hand-crafted one-off satellites that cost a fortune to launch.
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19:50 < muurkha> maaku: nice!
19:51 < muurkha> I'm not saying it can't carry cubesats economically, but that if it ends up being US$200/kg or less, it doesn't make sense to design your satellites to weigh 1 kg
19:53 < muurkha> because, contrary to popular belief, although you totally can build a useful satellite for under US$2000 (especially if it's a hobby project), that kind of pricing will attract a high volume of people, and all those satellites need to be vetted to ensure they don't contain weapons or surveillance capabilities that governments want to minimize the presence of in space
19:54 < muurkha> and that vetting is going to cost a lot more than US$200
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23:23 < maaku> https://spacenews.com/spacex-bid-on-launch-of-nasa-cubesat-mission/
23:24 < maaku> muurkha: ^
23:26 < maaku> I mean who submits a Saturn V class launch vehicle for a 56kg mission? That's ballsy.
23:26 < maaku> although reading the article they were aparantly competative but not the cheapest
23:29 < maaku> muurkha: that vetting doesn't need to be perpetually one-off. you mass manufacture a spacecraft bus which is 100% indentical (or at best, modular with standard options) across all satelites
23:29 < maaku> you only need government/regulator approval once
--- Log closed Mon Dec 06 00:00:53 2021