--- Log opened Sun Mar 13 00:00:26 2022
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01:43 < nmz787_> .wik Atmospheric_escape
01:43 < saxo> "Atmospheric escape is the loss of planetary atmospheric gases to outer space. A number of different mechanisms can be responsible for atmospheric escape; these processes can be divided into thermal escape, non-thermal (or suprathermal) escape, and impact erosion." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_escape
01:43 < nmz787_> .wik Future_of_Earth
01:43 < saxo> "The biological and geological future of Earth can be extrapolated based upon the estimated effects of several long-term influences." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth
01:45 < nmz787_> I know the timescales are 1 billion years from now, but it seems like the atmosphere escaping all the time just got a spot in my head for "things to be scared of" as well as "things that motivate me to do meaningful actions"
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06:26 < muurkha> nmz787_: interesting, my oversimplified view was "helium escapes, everything else stays"
06:26 < muurkha> but I guess that's only true in the short term
06:27 < muurkha> a billion years from now solar expansion will also bake Earth dry if we don't do anything about it
08:10 < mrdata> earth will be uninhabitable before that
08:11 < mrdata> the cooling mantle will absorb the water
08:20 < muurkha> really?
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12:17 < mrdata> muurkha, yes
12:17 < mrdata> and locking it into rock, via serpentization
12:18 < mrdata> s/iz/iniz
12:19 < mrdata> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serpentinite
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13:03 < muurkha> mrdata: hmm, interesting
13:04 < muurkha> I think that the mantle would take much longer than a billion years to cool naturally though
13:51 < mrdata> muurkha, well i didnt calculate the time scale for this myself; i read it in a paper,
13:52 < mrdata> the ref eludes me tho
13:56 < mrdata> so i might be mis-remembering
13:57 < mrdata> this process is already underway
14:01 < mrdata> related, https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/7/1/224/5514012
14:01 < mrdata> The flux of water on Earth has been estimated by several authors. According to Peacock [1], the amount of water degassed to the surface through magmatism is 2 × 1011 kg/year. The water flux returned to the mantle by subducting slabs is ∼8.7 × 1011 kg/year. Thus, 6.7 × 1011 kg/year of water move to the deep interior associated with slab subduction.
14:02 < mrdata> so at the present rate, 6.7e11 kg/y times 1e9 y = 6.7e20 kg will be absorbed in a billion years
14:06 < mrdata> which is half the mass of all the oceans
14:06 < mrdata> ok
14:11 < mrdata> so maybe similar time scales after all
14:12 < mrdata> earth will look a lot more like that place in that book by that guy
14:12 < mrdata> frank herbert
14:17 < kanzure> can't remember but i thought there was a 1mya event that renders the earth uninhabitable long before the billion year solar expansion problem
14:22 < mrdata> um, that's alarming
14:38 < muurkha> I don't think there is
14:39 < muurkha> mrdata: presumably the timescale will slow down as the crust gets thicker
14:39 < mrdata> to say that i think you need to understand the process better
14:39 < mrdata> so idk
14:40 < mrdata> there are several oceans worth of water in the mantle right now
14:41 < muurkha> neat
14:41 < mrdata> slowing might be relatively insignificant
15:12 < maaku> kanzure: I saw slides associated with that bottleneck paper posted here earlier. is there context on that?
15:13 < maaku> lsneff: I'm out of the loop. who's adam marblestone?
15:22 < mrdata> A nearby gamma-ray burst (less than 6000 light-years away) would be powerful enough to destroy the Earth's ozone layer, leaving organisms vulnerable to ultraviolet radiation from the Sun.[90] Gamma ray bursts are fairly rare, occurring only a few times in a given galaxy per million years.[91] It has been suggested that a supernova or gamma ray burst caused the End-Ordovician extinction.[92]
15:22 < mrdata> so maybe the gamma ray burst is the likely event?
15:24 < muurkha> maybe?  but the end-Ordovician extinction didn't render Earth uninhabitable; it's remained inhabitable for the last 3.5 billion years
15:25 < muurkha> so it's unlikely that random events that have been happening at about the same rate during all that time would render Earth uninhabitable 1/3500 of that time into the future
15:26 < muurkha> I don't think we have GRB forecasts yet
15:37 < maaku> muurkha: oceans exist
15:37 < maaku> most life was in the ocean in the Ordovician
15:43 < muurkha> thanks!  I always forget about oceans
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16:26 < lsneff> Well great, went through my courses again and it looks like I'll have to stay an extra semester to get everything done.
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16:54 < kanzure> maaku: no context, was just looking at it again
16:55 < kanzure> maaku: amarbles is elusive and pervasive; from boyden/church labs, futurist technology mapper type that actually knows some science https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pRTuNPsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra
16:57 < kanzure> he is partly origin of idea for eg barcode sequencing connectomes instead of SEM scanning https://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5103.pdf
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--- Log closed Mon Mar 14 00:00:25 2022