--- Log opened Mon Apr 18 00:00:58 2022
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01:42 < adlai> yay, the gnusha.org log is live again.
01:45 < adlai> fenn: I suspect the problem with "man-year" etc is that while time may be fungible, people aren't; in the cases where people are completely fungible, they get replaced by machines and then the relevant units for measuring amount of work are regular physical units
01:47 < adlai> one could attempt making some unit that's aware of the non-fungibility, by considering the people as accumulating in separate dimensions.
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09:24 < lsneff> Apparently we could power the US with an array of 20% efficient solar panels about 80 km in x and y
09:25 < lsneff> Probably more like 120 km if you include night time, but that’s a lot less than I expected
09:36 < lsneff> https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=sqrt%5C%2840%29Divide%5B%5C%2840%29US+annual+energy+consumption%5C%2841%29*3%2C1000+Divide%5BW%2CPower%5Bm%2C2%5D%5D*20%25%5D%5C%2841%29&assumption=%22ListOrTimes%22+-%3E+%22Times%22&assumption=%7B%22C%22%2C+%22W%22%7D+-%3E+%7B%22Unit%22%7D&assumption=%7B%22C%22%2C+%22m%22%7D+-%3E+%7B%22Unit%22%7D
09:44 < L29Ah> and a shitload of accumulators
09:45 < L29Ah> that are probably a bigger burden than solar cells themselves
10:09 < lsneff> true
10:39 < muurkha> they're comparable, L29Ah 
10:39 < muurkha> lsneff: what capacity factor are you using?
10:40 < lsneff> 20% efficient panels, fully powered for a third of the day
10:40 < muurkha> juri_: hope you're better now
10:40 < muurkha> mrdata: jaynes was probably wrong about most things, but I don't know for sure
10:41 < muurkha> fenn: isn't the statistically difference in fMRI brain activity the thing that makes your brain look like an experienced meditator's?
10:43 < muurkha> as for estimates that are off by a factor of two, it depends on how much time you spend on the estiates
10:43 < muurkha> *estimates
10:43 < juri_> muurkha: sadly no. :)
10:44 < muurkha> in a surprisingly large number of cases, spending 10% of the effort of the project on the estimates is adequate to produce an estimate that's only off by 20%
10:45 < muurkha> that is, for a project that's somewhere between 1 and 4 months, spending a week and a half up front spiking the biggest unknowns is often enough to tell you whether it's closer to one month or 4
10:45 < juri_> the current project i'm working on is a '6 month' project that's on it's second year.
10:45 < muurkha> the slicer?
10:45 < juri_> yep
10:45 < muurkha> it isn't always true, of course.  if you're performing close to peak capacity it's less true
10:46 < muurkha> because in software (and research) performing close to peak capacity means spending almost all your time on the major unknowns and almost none on routine scutwork
10:46 < muurkha> the routine scutwork is the predictable part
10:47 < juri_> there's not much of that in the language i'm using.
10:47 < muurkha> there can be routine scutwork even in Haskell
10:47 < muurkha> but I agree that it reduces it, and your algebraic approach to software design reduces it further
10:48 < muurkha> lsneff: no place in the US has a 33% capacity factor.  California's average is 29%, Arizona's 25%
10:48 < muurkha> the northern states are lower.  Maine is 12% IIRC
10:49 < muurkha> "capacity factor" is the ratio between average production (over say a year) and the nameplate capacity, which for 20% efficient panels is 200 W/m²
10:51 < lsneff> Makes sense. Still, only increases the area of panels by a few percent.
10:53 < muurkha> right
10:54 < muurkha> well, if you use 20% as a ballpark, it increases it by 67% over your 33⅓%
10:56 < mrdata> muurkha, i read his book about origin of consciousness
10:56 < maaku> muurkha: I'm sure the Mojave desert has a greater than average factor
10:56 < mrdata> it was interesting
10:57 < maaku> of course now you have to distribute it
10:57 < maaku> lsneff: now calculate how much landfill space is needed if we keep throwing stuff out and not recycling
10:58 < maaku> i forget the exact size, but it is similarly small
10:59 < lsneff> muurkha: If you go for 20% capacity factor, then you get about 105km on each side
10:59 < lsneff> Still much smaller than I'd think
11:14 < muurkha> maaku: yeah I think that's why
11:14 < muurkha> mrdata: agreed
11:14 < muurkha> lsneff: yup
11:15 < muurkha> landfill space is much smaller I think
11:15 < maaku> recycling is, tragically, just a feel-good scam
11:15 < muurkha> not always, sometimes it's very profitable
11:16 < maaku> mostly for crv (which is just subsidizing something that is unprofitable), or for large metal things like appliances
11:16 < muurkha> well, car batteries
11:17 < muurkha> transformers
11:17 < maaku> but for the most part we could and should get rid of recycling as a service. just throw everything out and sort it at the municipal level
11:18 < muurkha> it helps to not have rotten meat and medical waste on your aluminum heatsinks
11:25 < muurkha> for transport Fischer–Tropsch plants may be a necessary intermediary step after solar panels
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13:44 < fenn> lsneff: here's a helpful map of solar panel productivity in the USA https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USA_PVOUT_mid-size-map_220x156mm-300dpi_v20191206.png
13:45 < fenn> perhaps you'd also want to know the MINIMUM productivity over some window, for the purpose of sizing utility grids
13:48 < fenn> "recycling" is iteratively defined as material reuse that doesn't make economic sense, thus an unattainable ideal
13:49 < fenn> hoarding of unworn jewelry isn't considered recycling
13:55 < fenn> lsneff: the maximum value on the map is 23% (2045kWh/yr/kW)
13:55 < fenn> a more median value is 17%
15:03 < kanzure> .title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00997-5
15:03 < saxo> What's next for AlphaFold and the AI protein-folding revolution
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16:44 < maaku> fenn: hoarding of unworn jewelry is considered investing ;)
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17:27 < fenn> my live savings is in plastic containers
17:56 < muurkha> fenn: melting down unworn jewelry is considered recycling
17:57 < muurkha> melting down aluminum cans is definitely considered recycling even though it is very profitable
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--- Log closed Tue Apr 19 00:00:59 2022