--- Log opened Tue May 10 00:00:19 2022
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07:07 < kanzure> .tw https://twitter.com/perrymetzger/status/1523832995379036161
07:07 < saxo> 🧵The next decades may be the most important inflection point in the history of our galaxy. Either our descendants will spread to the stars, or we may cease to exist and in doing so doom Earth life to eventually vanishing when the Sun can no longer support it. (@perrymetzger)
07:43 < lsneff> A lot is riding on us holding it together over the next 50 years
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08:53 < darsie> Perhaps we should stop our mass extinction.
09:35 < kanzure> nah
09:35 < kanzure> it might look like extinction but it's not
09:35 < kanzure> humans are pretty hard to kill as a species overall nfortunately, i don't think you have much to worry about
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10:58 < nmz787> wtf, that perry metzger seems too anthropo-superior
10:58 < nmz787> or whatever the right term for that is
10:59 < nmz787> like, cats could move in to our niche after we evaporate, and then have a cat space program which is wildly successful
10:59 < kanzure> we must win out over cat-life
11:05 < fenn> earth had billions of years to evolve high intelligence, but didn't
11:07 < nmz787> it didn't ?
11:07 < nmz787> I resent that!
11:08 < fenn> there's no guarantee that it will spontaneously happen
11:08 < fenn> ("again" depending on your preconceptions of "high")
11:16 < muurkha> not much time is left
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12:16 < docl> .tw https://twitter.com/CharlesMBrenner/status/1523676136684724224
12:16 < saxo> here's Aubrey dogmatically saying that no one can name an 8th cause of aging after I named loss of repair capacity as a cause of aging // he then obfuscates by saying something about NAD, which does not negate the fact that loss of repair capacity is a cause of aging https://twitter.com/LauraMinquini/status/1523619450926542848 (@CharlesMBrenner)
12:20 < docl> this guy's objection to sens seems a bit nutty to me. like, the slowing rate of damage repair is obviously something that happens in aging but it needs a cause, whether that's damage (which could be in the 7 sens categories or not) or a purposely evolved trait like we see in salmon
12:22 < docl> .tw https://twitter.com/CharlesMBrenner/status/1524040969556926464
12:22 < saxo> @lsparrish @ameleco @dafeez that’s part of it but time dependent programming is rampant in biology from fertilization, development, maturation & includes our post-reproductive decline // evidence: most powerful longevity mutations are in growth genes (@CharlesMBrenner, in reply to tw:1524040241488838656)
12:25 < nmz787> muurkha: only like 100 billion years
12:27 < muurkha> nmz787: we only have about 1 billion years before the sun boils the oceans away from Earth
12:28 < muurkha> maybe some kind of life will survive after that but probably not exposed to sunlight
12:28 < docl> I guess there's two competing interpretations of the link between longevity and growth genes. 1) aging damage could be produced by mechanisms as varied and complicated as development itself (see the convo about cell specialization 2 days ago here) and hence the damage be as varied and complicated. 2) aging comes from damage caused by growth/metabolism/etc, but this all clumps into the 7 SENS categories 
12:28 < nmz787> cloud entities
12:28 < docl> (before creating further/more varied damages downstream)
12:28 < nmz787> pretty sure there was a futurama on that
12:28 < muurkha> unless we move it
12:29 < muurkha> which is probably difficult for whelks or whatever to achieve before ascending to rationality
12:30 < nmz787> whelks ==  whale-elk hybrids?
12:31 < muurkha> .t https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whelk
12:31 < saxo> "Whelk (also known as scungilli) is a common name that is applied to various kinds of sea snail. Although a number of whelks are relatively large and are in the family Buccinidae (the true whelks), the word whelk is also applied to some other marine gastropod species within [...]" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whelk
12:33 < nmz787> I'm not sure if I should be surprised at the number of interesting looking google results for "whale elk"
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12:33 < muurkha> in 5 billion years Sun will just vaporize Earth
12:34 < muurkha> again, unless we move it
12:36 < muurkha> so given that only one species has ascended to a sort of rationality over the past 4 billion years, or even the 650 million years animals have been around, it seems like a good chance that no more will arise in the next billion
12:41 < nmz787> butttt... written history is only 2k years old
12:41 < nmz787> so I don't really believe we honestly know there wasn't another civlization that got wiped out by some volcano or something, self-vaporized themselves
12:42 < nmz787> etc
12:42 < nmz787> I mean, seems like the earth could have churned all that evidence through the magma by now
12:42 < muurkha> there are a lot of cratons that haven't been churned
12:42 < nmz787> (surely some geologists might have argument otherwise, but I'm no expert)
12:42 < nmz787> .wik craton
12:42 < saxo> "A craton ( /ˈkreɪtɒn/, /ˈkrætɒn/, or /ˈkreɪtən/; from Greek: κράτος kratos 'strength') is an old and stable part of the continental lithosphere, which consists of Earth's two topmost layers, the crust and the uppermost mantle." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craton
12:43 < muurkha> if someone goes digging around Earth in 400 million years they're going to find polyethylene, chunks of aluminum, glass, copper wires
12:45 < nmz787> eh, maybe
12:46 < nmz787> unless some meteor storm comes and mixes the mantles up
12:47 < muurkha> or some kind of polyethylene-eating fungus evolves
12:48 < muurkha> even so we have coal deposits from before lignin-eating fungus
12:48 < muurkha> and there are often plant fossils in coal balls
12:49 < muurkha> but yeah it would be possible for a meteor storm to remelt Earth's surface.  but that hasn't happened in 4 billion years
12:50 < muurkha> so if trilobites or ammonites or velociraptors or whatever had built a technological civilization like ours we'd see the fossils
14:02 < lsneff> Working on the starlink coding assignment
14:02 < lsneff> It’s actually super interesting
14:02 < lsneff> Complicated optimization and constraint problem
14:27 < maaku> nmz787: the existence of fossil fuels and the lack of archeology in various geologic era seems to rule out previous industrial civilizations
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19:14 < muurkha> maaku: you could reasonably bootstrap an industrial civilization from geothermal energy or solar energy, which are each several orders of magnitude more abundant than fossil fuels
19:15 < muurkha> but I do think the lack of artifacts is strong evidence
19:42 < maaku> bootstrap? i don't think so. you're saying a medieval-level of technology could build photvoltaics?
19:49 < muurkha> no, definitely not
19:50 < muurkha> but there are many possible paths technology could develop along
19:50 < muurkha> it's not a linear progression
19:51 < muurkha> so, as one possible example, optics basically consists of grinding glass (or speculum metal, or glass-ceramics) to shapes determined with, ideally, wavelength precision.  you use interferometry (originally with a candle instead of a laser!) to measure the deviation as you go
19:52 < muurkha> you could have done that 2500 years ago if you knew what a wavelength was
19:53 < muurkha> all you need is glass, abrasives, and a detailed knowledge of the wave nature of light
19:54 < muurkha> if you have an external-combustion engine, which can run just as well on firewood as on sea-coal, you can power it with a mirror
19:54 < muurkha> and the sun
19:56 < muurkha> similarly Song China drilled oil wells (rather than digging them), which is an approach that scales to geothermal depths — in a hotspot like Yellowstone or Iceland
19:57 < muurkha> of course they were specifically driven on by the need for fossil-fuel energy!  but the vast majority of wells people drill are for water, not oil
20:00 < muurkha> you can build batteries out of metals that were refined in antiquity without fossil fuels, though apparently nobody did; in theory that permits you to do electrochemical machining.  but the whole idea of mechanical precision and tolerancing and numerical specification of whole designs didn't show up until, I think, the 01600s
20:01 < muurkha> the earliest example I know of is actually a vector font from 01692, the Romain du Roi
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20:04 < muurkha> you *can* sort of build photovoltaics with medieval technology, because cuprite is photovoltaic and can be formed on a copper sheet under a layer of tenorite just by heating it.  but it's only about 1% efficient
20:05 < muurkha> and copper is expensive, so I don't think this is practical
20:29 < maaku> I think you’re missing the point. You could conceivably work out with what we know now how a someone from an advanced civilization could recreate industry on hard mode without fossil fuels
20:30 < maaku> But for a civilization that knows nothing and is figuring things out as it goes? Impossible. They won’t forego a resource that is sitting there so obviously available and unused.
20:31 < maaku> Oil isn’t just used for energy, but also plastics, lubricants, industrial chemistry, coal is used in the refining process, etc.
21:09 < muurkha> well, the hypothetical civilization might have been pre-Carboniferous, or submarine.  and lots of even human civilizations have had weird prohibitions on exploiting particular resources
21:09 < muurkha> oil is the worst possible source for plastics, lubricants, etc., except for being conveniently available
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21:11 < muurkha> because it has *everything* in it, in quantities that vary wildly from one deposit to another, and you have to devote a lot of work to cleaning it up
21:12 < muurkha> it's enormously easier to make diesel fuel, for example, from vegetable oil than from crude oil
21:13 < muurkha> we ourselves are not going to deplete the majority of the coal deposits that existed, because of global warming
21:13 < muurkha> (and because solar energy is cheaper now)
21:14 < muurkha> So, one question is whether we'd expect a hypothetical pre-human technological civilization to *probably* deplete fossil-fuel resources; I agree that we would
21:16 < muurkha> A totally different question is whether it's *possible* for a hypothetical pre-human species to develop a technological civilization without depleting fossil-fuel resources, and that's the question I was addressing
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--- Log closed Wed May 11 00:00:20 2022