--- Log opened Fri Jun 14 00:00:24 2024
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01:34 < fenn> i learned a few disappointing things about the lesswrong-o-sphere
01:35 < fenn> 1) nobody even knows how to do bayesian reasoning, they don't do it as a matter of practice, and all the arguments are based on handwaving in "the sequences"
01:36 < fenn> 2) SIAI/MIRI never had anything internally in the secret research program, they never got anywhere at all, and it was a dilapidated and abandoned cellar at the ignominous end of the program, which was two weeks ago
01:40 < fenn> 3) the goal now seems to be "ban AI" and a sort of clueless lobbying effort to make that happen https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tKk37BFkMzchtZThx/miri-2024-communications-strategy
01:55 < fenn> (unlike the EA lobbying effort which is shiny and has a halo effect and full of sociopaths that can do horse trading)
02:00 < hprmbridge> jonnathan.> Interesting. Most alignment people I’ve spoken to seem to agree that lobbying to shut down capabilities research isn’t a viable option.
02:14 < L29Ah> plenty of powerful actors to outlobby them
02:15 < fenn> and suppress us peasants (for eternity, maybe)
02:34 < fenn> lol the official response to "but algorithmic progress isn't limited by a pause on large training runs, it only doubles our time" is:
02:34 < fenn> "One thing we can hope for, if we get a little more time rather than a lot more time, is that we might get various forms of human cognitive enhancement working, and these smarter humans can make more rapid progress on AI alignment."
02:35 < fenn> good luck
02:36 < fenn> "we mostly just expect to die."
02:37 < fenn> congratulations, you are now free to do whatever you want! you're free!
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05:52 < kanzure> surely that's not news (to you).
05:53 < kanzure> maybe the thing about no research program contents- my assumption or understanding was that there was "activity" it just wasn't going anywhere or making any progress and didn't even know how to measure progress.
07:46 < kanzure> "Complete biosynthesis of opioids in yeast" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4924617/
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10:20 < NewtonTrendy> fenn: sorry to hastle you but I wrote an article with a bunch of suggestions for how to impliment a society that can cope with life extending drugs, I'm not sure if i actually asked you to check it (I have updated it). https://fellowship.monster/lifeextension_plan.pdf (thanks for the link to the transcript, i didnt think to do that and it helped a lot)
10:21 < NewtonTrendy> If anyone has suggestions on it i'm very open but please at least read all of it if they are negative.
10:26 < L29Ah> pretty sure the current society can cope with life extending drugs
10:27 < L29Ah> > ensuring that these advancements do not become the exclusive privilege of the wealthy or those likely to exploit the population.
10:27 < L29Ah> such regulations would hamper research
10:34 < geneh2> it'd be better just to make life extending drugs first. You can't predict everything
10:44 < L29Ah> indeed
10:46 < L29Ah> > There is potential for unrest if demand for life extension treatments exceeds supply.
10:46 < L29Ah> under the current system demand for life extension treatments already exceeds supply, as seen in antibody/personalized cancer drugs for example, and nothing explodes
12:22 < pasky> anyone has a sense of what senior people at ai industry labs generally think of the Situational Awareness?
12:22 < pasky> leaving on vacation just a day after it got published i've been a bit slow catching up on it
12:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> Hey Newton, is this for a school project? I would suggest that there aren’t currently any compounds that we know of that extend life. For example, a few years ago people recommended metformin, but now we know it’s a bad idea. Rapamycin is the hot topic right now but we are far from having any idea of dose-response. Fasting is also controversial due to lean muscle loss. There are a bajillion
12:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> compounds that could potentially help humans in a specific environment, but none of these are magical and they all need lots of research. Maybe the best studied compound would be statins for people with lpa and apob issues. Along with fixing nutritional deficiency.
12:39 < hprmbridge> Eli>
12:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> Healthcare inequality is not really an issue imo. Poor people already make horrible decisions about health. We could eliminate a good portion of the top four killers in America by simply changing our behavior patterns and consumption patterns and getting rid of toxicants from our environment. when people stopped smoking cigarettes it did more to fight cancer than any of the billions of dollars of
12:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> research money we’ve spent on cancer and immunotherapy. Similarly, plumbers have saved more lives than doctors. Healthcare should be thought of something that takes place outside the hospital, imo
12:46 < hprmbridge> Eli> Having said that, I currently take Mg, vitamin D3/K2, creatine, ALA, and a combo of astaxanthin/lutein/zeaxanthin. These are some of the better studied compounds. I may add some minerals like zinc or others when I study those more. And I may start taking a statin or blood pressure med in a few years. But I’m currently doing a lot of self experimentation and I only change one variable at a time.
12:49 < L29Ah> i don't know metformin is a bad idea
12:52 < jrayhawk> it's an electron transport chain complex I inhibitor. it's a bad idea unless you have a specific reason to be inhibiting complex I.
12:53 < jrayhawk> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6351883/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36287641/ etc
12:54 < hprmbridge> Eli> If you’re healthy I wouldn’t take it. Maybe there is some sort of code response in very specific situations that are useful but that’s not clear and requires more study. Currently, I wouldn’t take metformin if I didn’t have diabetes/metabolic disorder. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oPdkuriBEzo
12:58 < L29Ah> > https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oPdkuriBEzo
12:58 < L29Ah> tl;dw: metformin blunts aerobic exercise-induced VO2max improvement and lowers testosterone
13:02 < L29Ah> thanks for the twin study
13:02 < L29Ah> where can i scihub it?
13:04 < L29Ah> ok found it: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-pdf/51/6/1886/47882534/dyac200.pdf
13:11 < L29Ah> n=976 twins and co-twins
13:24 < L29Ah> butt butt https://sci-hub.se/downloads/2020-04-28/35/10.1016@j.cmet.2020.04.001.pdf
13:29 < L29Ah> i guess halving my daily dose to 500mg and subscribing to that paper citations would be an adequate response, given i have excessive testosterone, and the only noticeable metformin side effect was reduced strength exercise gains
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14:22 < hprmbridge> Eli> There seems to be few things more highly correlated with longevity than VO2 max. Also, what is "excessive testosterone"? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1064664282450628710/1251285572891443322/pathways.png?ex=666e0600&is=666cb480&hm=d75ef545ab382b4bd7efbf15a16da564f52bc3e135b28f03f9013b56aa372e3a&
14:40 < hprmbridge> jonnathan.> Wonder why it doesn’t mention finasteride as a 5ar inhibitor. I guess it really only inhibits some 5ar (doesn’t inhibit type 1 5ar)
14:41 < hprmbridge> jonnathan.> Neat chart
14:50 < hprmbridge> Eli> This is from 2020. The actual RCT, published in 2021, had very perplexing results. Metformin didn't seem to reduce all cause mortality, just likelihood of diabetes. This suggests that we should focus on diet, exercise, and sleep. If something decreases VO2 max, our a priori should be that it is harmful for healthy people. https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/44/12/2775/138471/Effect-of-
14:50 < hprmbridge> Eli> Metformin-and-Lifestyle-Interventions-on
14:52 < hprmbridge> Eli> might be too many compounds to put in a chart. I'm not sure if it mentions phosphatidylserines effect on cortisol either, but doctors take it to get to sleep.
14:57 < hprmbridge> soul_syrup> neuromimetic stim option now working for bio silicon intelligence system https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1064664282450628710/1251294522722222131/neuromimetic_video.mp4?ex=666e0e56&is=666cbcd6&hm=65a8771f51c5665064f188b38ec1613edb5372cbc53d6ade13075be322d87209&
15:02 < L29Ah> Eli: 99th percentile despite metformin, gradually getting bald in my 30s
15:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> going bald in your 30's is not abnormal. Have you spoken to an endo about your T levels? For some people it seems to be genetic. For others, there can be an actual pathology affecting your hormones that you want to get checked out. Also, an endo might be able to tell you if you should be concerned about high T. I have no idea what the consensus on that is and endocrinology is not really something
15:06 < hprmbridge> Eli> that you want to mess around with on your own, imo.
15:27 < fenn> NewtonTrendy: you really need to have a mathematical model of population changes showing that overpopulation due to life extension is actually a problem before making sweeping claims about the need to implement policies to restrict life extension or whatever
15:29 < NewtonTrendy> fenn: i cant do that, i dont know how, but it is obvious that many many people would take it and live longer, and the population boom happened in the industrial revolution when the quality of life meant people lived longer
15:29 < fenn> NewtonTrendy: the section on "data transparency" and "opt-in" surveillance (lol yeah fucking right) is a total non-sequitur
15:29 < NewtonTrendy> its very crucial
15:29 < NewtonTrendy> why was there a pushback in the first place, because they couldnt say why
15:30 < NewtonTrendy> i very much appreciate your time, thankyou
15:30 < fenn> who does "they" refer to in the above sentence?
15:31 < NewtonTrendy> the people who knew about existing life extension techniques or efforts, such as intelligence agnecy r+d in the smallest communities
15:32 < NewtonTrendy> they were manipulating society and no one understood why they wanted surveilance
15:32 < fenn> 1) intelligence agencies don't care about life extension 2) surveillance is power and that's a good enough reason for them to pursue it
15:33 < NewtonTrendy> They do, and maybe youre right, but dont stop me making an app where people can share all their data
15:33 < fenn> go ahead and share whatever you want, just don't force me to
15:34 < NewtonTrendy> https://fellowship.monster/cia.txt
15:34 < fenn> please explain why you think data sharing and life extension are related
15:34 < NewtonTrendy> because if you enable enforcement in order to take life extension then its possible, but im not sure about how big the black market would be
15:35 < fenn> you could coerce people to do anything, why data transparency in particular?
15:38 < fenn> non-participants who get life extension treatments through the black market will not be enrolled in the data transparency programs. is the goal to get such a large fraction of the population enrolled in surveillance that the minority that isn't enrolled will inevitably be caught up in the dragnet and their "illegal" (not really law but meh) activities exposed?
15:39 < fenn> why not just pass a law requiring data transparency for everyone?
15:39 < fenn> i'm just confused why you even include this in a document about life extension
15:40 < fenn> eventually you will grow up and realize that there are no adults in charge
15:40 < NewtonTrendy> the only things i can thing of is not in their lifetime, and not if they dont get noticed for living too long or breaking the law, and not more than the level of access some already have
15:41 < NewtonTrendy> I dont want to force people who have lived their life in an honest way with the assumption they wouldnt be spied on, i know first hand it hurts
15:41 < NewtonTrendy> too much
15:42 < fenn> breaking which law?
15:43 < fenn> say i am a little old lady who goes to church for 200 years and bakes cookies every day, but i'm not signed up with your global panopticon. did i break the law?
15:44 < fenn> are you seriously going to send out death squads to hunt down old people?
15:45 < fenn> did you know that blade runner was a dystopia?
15:45 < fenn> >_<
15:53 < fenn> i think it would be harder for young people to get a job in a competitive system where there are already many incumbent highly trained workers, not easier
15:53 < fenn> fortunately AI will obsolete all of that
15:57 < fenn> we don't have to worry about "gradual implementation" because some people will want the treatment and some won't, due to the high prevalence of deathist memes in society already
15:58 < fenn> it seems likely to me that a basic treatment will be very inexpensive in terms of real stuff being used, like jars of yeast and nutrient broth and a syrine, or a plasmapheresis machine
15:59 < fenn> any expenses will be due solely to regulation and faux "safety" concerns. the alternative is death, so denying treatment because of safety concerns is not an option
16:00 < fenn> if you want to pay extra for iso-11000 certification, go ahead
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16:03 < fenn> it would be better to focus on yamanaka factors as the therapy rather than CRISPR genome editing, which is just a delivery mechanism
16:04 < L29Ah> yamanaka factors as a therapy sound just too good to be true tbh
16:04 < L29Ah> and crispr is useful for other things
16:05 < NewtonTrendy> thanks thanks
16:06 < NewtonTrendy> i meant people living normal lives who hadnt broken any specific law, or at least remained moral
16:07 < fenn> please try harder to maintain a separation in your mind between moral behavior and law-abiding behavior
16:09 < fenn> arguably morality is subjective anyway
16:09 < fenn> if there is an objective morality, our best philosophers haven't been able to articulate it
16:12 < L29Ah> i think there's some order on morality objectivity space
16:12 < L29Ah> things that favor positive-sum games are move objectively moral on average :]
16:15 < fenn> the "humanity is a cancer" people would probably disagree
16:15 < hprmbridge> jonnathan.> Well said.
16:16 < fenn> i'm not trying to have a philosophy debate here, i just want to pull back NewtonTrendy's conflation of "deserves life" and "moral" and "law abiding"
16:17 < fenn> living longer may give us more wisdom through experience, and thus a better understanding of morality
16:18 < fenn> artificially restricting people's access to life experience (by forcing them to die) would then be reducing moral behavior
16:18 < fenn> on average, and in an absolute sense, because there are less people alive, and because you have done an immoral thing by forcing them to die for bad reasons
16:19 < fenn> unbelievable that i even have to make these arguments
16:20 < fenn> if you lock someone in a cellar with no food and they die of starvation, you've killed them. if you prevent someone from accessing life-saving medicine, you've killed them.
16:22 < fenn> did Ambrosia (the young blood transfusion thing) ever do any science to determine if it had an effect?
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16:25 < fenn> "No publications available" https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02803554#publications
16:35 < L29Ah> https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=young+blood+rejuvenation&sort=date
16:36 < L29Ah> doubt there's anything beyond experiments on rodents
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18:42 < NewtonTrendy> https://fellowship.monster/lifeextension_plan.pdf now using latex (im too tired and drugged up to remember what i changed)
18:43 < NewtonTrendy> fenn: sorry i say legal when i mean moral, i will try to remember how much this means to those i know
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20:56 < fenn> ok this is what i wasted today on: https://pastebin.com/vYd1bpuj
20:56 < fenn> .t
20:56 < saxo> wow signal intended for jupiter? - Pastebin.com
20:57 < fenn> fighting to get astronomical reference frame types to match, mostly
20:58 < hprmbridge> sabrina1999_> Plasma dilution works due to the Hyperfunction theory of aging
22:32 < fenn> NSA director Paul Nakasone appointed to OpenAI board. you can't make this stuff up
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23:35 < hprmbridge> Eli> Posting with no comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bax8to_s07Q
23:39 < hprmbridge> Eli> Ok one comment: Who are the doctors involved in this procedure in this video? Do they not understand the red flags here? Or are they just cynics in it for the money?
--- Log closed Sat Jun 15 00:00:25 2024