--- Log opened Mon Oct 28 00:00:33 2024
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01:37 < fenn> "What can we do with eight billion that we couldn't do with four? What will be able to do with sixteen billion that we can't do with eight?"
01:37 < fenn> jrayhawk> every one of your personal heroes had a society behind them enabling their specialization and a biological normal distribution underneath them tatistically enabling their exceptionality
01:38 < fenn> statistically* (my bad)
01:39 < fenn> so let's say increasing the size of the population 2x increases the number of geniuses 2x, how can we do better?
01:45 < fenn> if a genius is IQ > 140 and standard deviation is 15, z = (140 - 100)/15 = 2.67
01:45 < hprmbridge> kanzure> if your goal is intelligence maxxing then you should be able to do that other than population growth
01:46 < fenn> not necessarily intelligence maxxing but clearly there are a lot of people doing nothing particularly useful that still have an army of other infrastructure-supporting humans taking care of things for them, and they could be geniuses instead
01:47 < fenn> i'm just making the point that it only takes a tiny shift in IQ to have huge societal effects
01:53 < fenn> anyway, back to the calculation. if we want to double the number of geniuses that means doubling the number in the z-table, .0038 * 2 = .0076 which converts back to a new z = 2.43 = (140-103.5)/15
01:53 < fenn> so we only need to add 3.5 IQ points to the average if we want to double the number of geniuses
01:54 < hprmbridge> kanzure> that's well within the number of IQ points that embryo selection companies are advertising
01:54 < fenn> indeed
01:55 < fenn> but how many people are going to buy those services? probably not a very large fraction of the population
01:56 < fenn> on the other hand, higher IQ makes you more likely to buy those services, both because you have money to spend, and because you believe in intelligence differences and care about it as an issue
01:57 < fenn> high IQ people are maladapted in society because there are so few high IQ people to relate to. we could improve the world for high IQ people by making more high IQ people
01:57 < fenn> so here's where my understanding of the statistics falls apart
01:58 < fenn> since IQ is highly heritable, we're shifting the high end of the distribution. therefore we should expect more geniuses per selected embryo than merely adding to the average
01:58 < fenn> but how do you actually plug numbers into this?
02:03 < fenn> i also have issues with going ahead and making large numbers of people without really thinking too hard about it, when we could be making better people instead
02:04 < fenn> imagine you're randomly selected to be in world A where everyone is a baseline human, or world B where everyone is upgraded. wouldn't you rather be in world B?
02:05 < fenn> wouldn't it still be better to be in a world where 99% of people are upgraded?
02:05 < fenn> wouldn't it still be better to be in a world where 1% of people are upgraded?
02:06 < fenn> even if it's only a small percentage of the population, the fraction of geniuses is so small already that a tiny uptake of the technology is enough to really matter
02:07 < fenn> i know it's "thinking small" compared to "billions and billions" of space habitats or whatever, but here is where we are now
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02:12 < TMA> fenn: right now the incentives are skewed in favor of lowering the average intelligence of offspring
02:12 < fenn> hence the plan to do some financial engineering to create incentives for higher intelligence offspring
02:14 < fenn> uh, there were various different schemes but generally something like borrowing against your kid's future expected earnings in order to fund their pre-birth enhancement procedures
02:14 < TMA> high IQ women are better rewarded for not having children
02:14 < fenn> and also the birth and stable housing situation itself, which is in short supply
02:15 < fenn> well fortunately for us we don't need high IQ women to have children
02:15 < fenn> it certainly makes people feel better about the whole process though
02:16 < fenn> vs surrogacy and egg donation or gametogenesis or something else
02:16 < TMA> well, I am not thinking about some possible future artificial selection procedure
02:18 < fenn> also there's this thing about how utility scales non-linearly with more dollars. you have to earn a super duper crapton of money before it's better than having a full life as humans evolved to want to live, if that is even possible
02:18 < fenn> (re: "high IQ women are better rewarded for not having children" meaning they earn marginally more money presumably)
02:19 < fenn> but many existing parents allege that children are their own reward
02:19 < fenn> i am skeptical of this, personally, it may be some kind of neurological hack akin to parasite takeover of the nervous system
02:20 < fenn> but in any case they seem fulfilled and happy, more so than a double digit percentage increase of income in dollars could do
02:22 < fenn> there may also be some kind of "male brain" phenotype that results in higher IQ variance and less desire for children etc. i haven't really seriously looked into this possibility
02:23 < fenn> if you sample from the top 1% of existing women by IQ you're likely to get a weirdo
02:23 < TMA> fenn: well, the pay gap is even more pronounced for every child the woman has
02:25 < TMA> which translates into less resources to invest into children which now cost more
02:28 < TMA> even for say cost_of_children = log(children) vs salary=e^{-constant * children) and positive utility from children themselves do not have the optimum at very high number of children
02:28 < fenn> i'm looking at some numbers on this "child penalty" issue. "Mothers’ earnings decrease by 49 per cent the year of birth, with a penalty of 34.3 per cent 10 years after."
02:29 < TMA> that's a lot
02:30 < fenn> the child penalty is increasing, or at least the child penalty share of the wage gap
02:30 < fenn> in denmark "one of the most egalitarian countries in the world" the long term child penalty is 20%
02:33 < fenn> fortunately for us, the expected earnings of a child  (100-20+100)/2 = 90% > 20%
02:34 < fenn> obviously you can't steal all of the child's earnings to pay for their creation, but there's a lot to work with
02:35 < fenn> this could be the easiest way to solve the wage gap dilemma
02:35 < fenn> childcare is unpaid labor, and it shouldn't be. we can fix that by borrowing from the future expected earnings
02:37 < fenn> it would be good to ground the expectations in a tight loop based on actual earnings with as little actuarial bullshit as possible
02:37 < fenn> otherwise "nobody got fired for buying IBM" but with your entire life
02:37 < fenn> we should be encouraging people to take risks and do bold exciting things
02:38 < fenn> the world has enough doctors and lawyers already
02:39 < fenn> there's also the credit assignment problem. if your kid makes some massively huge discovery or innovation, but doesn't directly profit from it, that benefits society overall, and we should be encouraging this to happen
02:41 < TMA> ah, the externalities
02:41 < fenn> trying to solve three big problems at once might be scope creep though
02:43 < TMA> so let me recap the problem: (1) the society would be better off with more intelligent people (2) intelligence is heritable (3) intelligence is somewhat correlated with bigger earnings
02:44 < TMA> so that gives us "rich people shall breed more"
02:45 < TMA> which is politically unviable except in dictatorships and the U. S. of A.
02:45  * TMA gives up
02:48 < TMA> maybe intelligence shall die out and we shall return to the intelligence level of higher primates
03:04 < TMA> it is really hard to filter out humans with positive net impact, mainly because the typical impact is so low
03:06 < TMA> and even if we really could tell that Jane Doe's impact is positive $20 per year, while John Doe yields negative $500 what could we do about it?
03:08 < TMA> moreover if a meteorite hit this John Doe, Jane Doe's net impact might plunge because he bought her cookies for $30 a year so now Jane is at negative $10
03:08 < TMA> there is no way to optimize this mess
03:10 < fenn> did you mean "rich people should breed more"?
03:11 < fenn> historically rich people did breed more, so why is it politically unviable now?
03:11 < fenn> now rich people breed less. how is that supposed to be more fair?
03:11 < TMA> well, they did that organically
03:12 < fenn> three times is enemy action
03:13 < TMA> there was no media campaign to promote rich people breeding more. no incentives set up for rich people to breed more
03:15 < TMA> nowadays the incentives are skewed in a way to dissuade everyone except the dirt-poor from reproducing
03:17 < TMA> there is no solution that I can fathom and I will cease attempting to find one presently
03:18 < fenn> did you even read what i was saying about financial engineering to borrow backed by future expected earnings
03:19 < fenn> it's not a scam, there will be real productivity growth if this scheme is implemented
03:19 < fenn> people just don't like the idea because it treats humans as a means rather than an end
03:20 < fenn> you are free to opt out of course, anyone can just not pay back their parents and not get benefits from their (hypothetical) children
03:21 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yes but the gigafactory will then cut off your extended family and your future descendants
03:21 < fenn> uh, really you're paying into the whole system, not directly paying back your parents, who have already gotten the money before you were born
03:21 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yes
03:22 < fenn> kanzure what do you mean it will cut off your extended family?
03:22 < hprmbridge> kanzure> all funding
03:22 < fenn> but specifically what is "extended family" referring to
03:22 < hprmbridge> kanzure> walking away should penalize
03:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> your parents and their siblings and their kids
03:23 < fenn> why should it penalize them?
03:23 < fenn> this sounds not very voluntary
03:23 < fenn> collective punishment for individual choices
03:23 < fenn> no bueno
03:24 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it's voluntary, but if you walk away with millions of dollars then your family should not be given more money
03:24 < fenn> you never got that money, your parents did
03:24 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it's dysgenic for heavens sake!
03:24 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yes but future program accsss
03:24 < fenn> you're saying the choice to walk away is genetically predetermined?
03:25 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it doesn't matter; you can select against it. maybe it's genetic.
03:25 < fenn> i mean, maybe it is, but it's not obvious that we should select against it
03:25 < fenn> amish people are getting more amish. is that a good thing? i don't think so
03:26 < hprmbridge> kanzure> before you rob the church, you should think long and hard about your future progeny and whether they might ever want access to the financing for their own families. likewise, the rest of your family might have opinions.
03:26 < fenn> gigafactory people will get more risk averse as the system and people evolve to favor predictable outcomes
03:26 < fenn> that sounds like a boring future to me
03:27 < hprmbridge> kanzure> if gigafactory is really not providing you that much value, then have kids and don't apply for the finances fine, but completely walking away - with no social consequences? I dunno. I'll have to think more about it.
03:27 < fenn> my point is the consequences should strictly apply to the person who made the choice to walk away, not to other people
03:27 < fenn> otherwise everyone goes insane with social pressure to conform and participate
03:28 < hprmbridge> kanzure> in my financial engineering scheme, it's actually family based not entirely individual based. still working this out.
03:29 < hprmbridge> kanzure> directionally at least there is something here
03:29 < fenn> i think "walking away" should be a simple as just not requesting funding for starting your own family
03:30 < fenn> then you don't get any funding to start your own family, and you don't have to pay in during your productive age 30+ years
03:30 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yeah but the walking away thing usually refers to opting to not pay back the system for your own childhood
03:30 < fenn> yes, that's what i said
03:30 < hprmbridge> kanzure> well ok
03:31 < fenn> think of it like a loan to be paid back in ~10-20 years
03:31 < fenn> the loan is backed by expected income actuarial tables or something, i dunno
03:32 < fenn> or expected contribution-to-society tables
03:32 < fenn> once the system gets big enough that it can reap the benefits of externalities
03:33 < fenn> i'd rather this happen immediately but it might just sputter out due to not enough direct return
03:33 < fenn> like if everyone optimizes for artists and scientists because that's what gives the greatest societal return, then the average income won't be high enough to support the costs of enhancement and childcare
03:33 < hprmbridge> kanzure> btw that's the more decentralized version, I am also trying to fathom a non-dystopian centralized version where we try to get the cost of an amazing childhood down from $500,000 to like $25,000 through things like economies of scale, vertical integration, engineering, etc, but just letting parents spend money however they see fit feels a lot more freedom loving to me
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03:34 < fenn> well get your story straight before you go blasting announcements on twitter where it seems like you've decided on a specific plan
03:35 < hprmbridge> kanzure> (uh, plus parent labor costs which is never included in the $250k total child cost estimates)
03:35 < fenn> i'm skeptical of the marginal value of parenting
03:35 < fenn> these days most kids are over-coddled and insulated from reality
03:36 < fenn> it's not healthy
03:36 < fenn> there needs to be a minimum level of socialization and feeling wanted and belonging, beyond that it's not helpful
03:37 < fenn> also i suspect most parents won't make good nutrition decisions simply due to not having time to research the issues and exercise epistemic hygiene
03:37 < hprmbridge> kanzure> okay, fine, but please rephrase in a way that normies won't find immediately dystopian.
03:37 < fenn> point being that the centralized creche might be better for the children and the parents
03:38 < fenn> it's just daycare on steroids
03:38 < hprmbridge> kanzure> lifecare
03:38 < hprmbridge> kanzure> or even... social security?
03:38 < fenn> ugh
03:38 < hprmbridge> kanzure> sorry
03:38 < fenn> so you wouldn't drop your kid off and come back in a year, that's dystopian
03:39 < fenn> it's more like, you don't have to personally drive them to soccer practice or make them clean their room
03:39 < fenn> what the hell do parents even do, i have no idea
03:39 < fenn> cooking food is a big waste of time for everyone
03:40 < fenn> like clearly all surfaces should be coated in NeverWet and be hosed off at the end of the day
03:41 < TMA> fenn: I have read it. isn't that basically what we are doing now, just more direct in the accounting? [like for example pollution that the next generation needs to clean up is also borrowing against their future productivity]
03:41 < hprmbridge> kanzure> housing, cafeteria, medical, daycare all can be centralized
03:41 < fenn> TMA the climate change story is making a lot of assumptions, like e.g. that we won't develop affordable fusion power in the next decade
03:42 < fenn> also individuals don't get any money from making choices that emit carbon, that typically goes to business owners
03:43 < fenn> no, it's not the same as what we're doing now
03:43 < hprmbridge> kanzure> climatecels should focus on biosphere space habitats because that's the only way you're going to get reliable billion+ year biosphere preservation
03:43 < fenn> and it's not really equivalent to social security either, because it's paid out before you get old and infertile
03:43 < hprmbridge> kanzure> it's called getting paid for parenting work
03:43 < fenn> i suspect a lot of these assumptions about fertility age ranges will also get turned on their head in the next decade or so
03:44 < fenn> gametogenesis and PGD
03:44 < hprmbridge> kanzure> just pay people. and not just a $4,000/head tax credit (what an insanely insulting offer, i can't believe people take that seriously)
03:45 < fenn> tax credits aren't money
03:45 < hprmbridge> kanzure> that's what most have turned to for reproduction financial incentives
03:45 < fenn> you have to be earning a real job's worth in order to see any benefit from tax credits
03:45 < TMA> fenn: last time I heard of fusion it was 20 to 30 years away, exactly the same timeframe as in the sixties
03:46 < hprmbridge> kanzure> like it's crazy, how is that your 1st thought and why would you think people are like oh hell yeah let's have 5 kids on that tax credit that will surely cover my costs..... not.
03:46 < fenn> TMA it's more like six years away now
03:46 < fenn> i'm not talking about ITER i'm talking about commonwealth fusion, SPARC, general fusion, TAE
03:47 < fenn> it's an engineering problem now, the solution was simple: use high temperature superconductors that we've had since the 80s because they have higher saturation field strength and scale better. it's only recently that these materials became commercially available in large quantities
03:48 < fenn> kanzure it's a tax credit because they don't have to pass a politically contentious budget item that draws money from elsewhere, on account of it not actually paying anything out
03:48 < fenn> but it still "looks" (to an uninformed observer) like they're "doing something"
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03:50 < fenn> also concern about the plummeting fertility rate is not a mainstream issue, due to white supremacist ideology making the whole concept politically radioactive, and probably russian ideological warfare perpetuating this
03:51 < fenn> i could be out of touch though
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03:52 < hprmbridge> kanzure> dunno, vance has been out there talking about it
03:52 < fenn> i see a lot more people like darsie (vegan anti-natalist) or SJW types ("what do you mean you want more white children? that's racist!!!") around in general
03:52 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://apnews.com/article/jd-vance-childless-cat-ladies-birth-rates-555c0f78ef8dd4c13c88b9e8d5f0024a
03:53 < fenn> is vance mainstream? i don't even know anymore
03:53 < hprmbridge> kanzure> the vice president candidate?
03:53 < fenn> yeah?
03:53 < fenn> it's kooks and clowns everywhere as far as i can tell
03:53 < fenn> fuck all of you
03:54 < fenn> jesus fucking christ am i going to have to move to japan
03:54 < hprmbridge> kanzure> "... has been clear about making family formation a policy priority. He has suggested ideas such as allowing parents to vote on behalf of their children or following the example of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán of giving low-interest loans to married couples with children and tax exemptions to women who have four children or more."
03:56 < fenn> "vote on behalf of their children" sounds incredibly stupid and also illegal
03:56 < fenn> what is even the goal there
03:57 < hprmbridge> kanzure> minimizing non-breeder vote influence or something
03:58 < fenn> right, anyway
03:58 < fenn> low interest child rearing loans sounds like a good plan
03:58 < fenn> i don't see any reason to exclude unmarried parents
03:59 < fenn> the problem you're trying to avoid is the welfare momma trap, right? marriage doesn't actually fix this
04:03 < fenn> vance was raised by his grandparents, shouldn't they have been financially assisted in this?
04:06 < fenn> "the existing child tax credit at $2,000 per qualifying child, which Vance has said he’d love to see raised to $5,000. He has also mentioned in interviews he wants to ban pornography for minors, citing it as one of the causes for why people are marrying less"
04:06 < fenn> this is too funny
04:08 < fenn> i think they meant to write "ban pornography," s/for minors// otherwise it doesn't really make sense
04:09 < fenn> really i think the problem is economic, young people can't afford a house and spend all their time just getting by, can't realistically plan for a family in that situation
04:10 < fenn> it's a hopeless desperate feeling that is just an extension of their social media ruined childhood
04:16 < hprmbridge> kanzure> wouldn't it be funny to propose the opposite, where parents do thousands of hours of unpaid labor
04:20 < fenn> one of those mafia trade memes
04:22 < kanzure> "kanzure your twitter account is like an endless ribbon of futureshock acceleration stuff"
04:22 < kanzure> is it still futureshock if you're shocked it doesn't exist yet
04:36 < darsie> fenn: I'm an environmentalist, not really a vegan. I'm upset about humans causing a mass extinction. I'd be ok if we lived responsibly, but as things are we should either be more responsible or fewer, or a combination, to stop the mass extinction. I'd eat invasive species or good animal products if they would be or were thrown away.
04:37 < darsie> You can call me an antinatalist, that's ok.
04:38 < darsie> Have you come across xx? She's vhemt.
04:49 < fenn> if you don't realize it's a joke then it's a valid darwin award
04:50 < kanzure> with regards to biosphere conservationalism, i have not seen the large scale projects i would expect if people were really interested in conserving species or biodiversity
04:50 < kanzure> the seed vault is very cool, maybe the plant people are more object oriented because you can see and hold most seeds
04:50 < fenn> most of the seeds in the vault are agricultural varieties
04:51 < kanzure> are there stats about total plant coverage in the vault?
04:51 < fenn> dunno
04:52 < kanzure> i think if i was biosphere-conservation-obsessed i would focus on large-scale jarariums (ecospheres?), and try to get self-sustained pockets of preservation that we can reliably maintain for millions of years if necessary
04:52 < fenn> you can read pages and pages of copy about agricultural crop diversity here https://www.seedvault.no/for-the-general-public/
04:52 < kanzure> and then scale up to very large ecospheres/biospheres in containment
04:53 < fenn> it's not like they're randomly sampling from every ecosystem on earth and putting those samples in the svalbard seed vault
04:53 < kanzure> for some reason i feel more confident that we can get closed-loop biosphere to work more than i am confident that we could somehow pause the earth's biosphere which i think would be impossible
04:54 < kanzure> well anyway, i hope someone who cares about these things has put more thought into actual conservation engineering
04:55 < kanzure> or is it all guilt trip think of the animals please donate to my regarded philanthropic organization that doesn't actually accomplish anything
04:55 < kanzure> presumably really good conservation physics would also double as space habitat research which is very cool
04:56 < fenn> you might be overestimating the effectiveness and intelligence of the average NGO
04:56 < fenn> they might really care and be trying, but not reach a conclusion that actually matters in the end because of all the pressing immediate concerns
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04:57 < fenn> BGI is doing a lot of gene sequencing, that's good
04:57 < fenn> the problem is that everyone is too poor, we can't afford to save the environment
04:58 < fenn> nobody *wants* to destroy species, well unless they're ticks or mosquitoes
05:00 < kanzure> open-ended thermodynamic systems are scary and answers like "well we will just have to do resource exploration to keep the system running" are very disturbing for most people
05:01 < fenn> we have a perfectly fine resource allocation algorithm, we just don't use it. there should be a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, that's it. it would solve all this strategic ineffectiveness around climate change
05:02 < fenn> a flat tax on CO2 equivalents
05:02 < kanzure> well by resource exploration i mean like how do we find enough resources in the solar system for all the autotrophs we're going to need
05:02 < fenn> for quintillions of people?
05:02 < fenn> i calculated this once
05:02 < kanzure> and what happens if we don't find enough in time
05:03 < kanzure> well not necessarily people but yes
05:03 < kanzure> there's no ecosystem pause button.. either we feed the biosphere for billions of years or it probably fizzles out when the sun dies, or some weird earth mineral becomes inaccessible.
05:04 < kanzure> flashbacks to freitas KSRM vitamin part calculations and open-ended thermodynamic evolutionary system physics.
05:05 < fenn> .t https://pastebin.com/9shuVZL1
05:05 < saxo> solar system carrying capacity - Pastebin.com
05:11 < kanzure> that the biosphere open loop has "worked" for so long is great, although it has been self-modifying and changing form for billions of years, but at least it's something; status quo preservation in a system not designed to be halted is difficult, lots of feedback loops we don't even know about.
05:11 < fenn> oh i didn't do the easy part in that transcript. for phosphorus, which is probably the limiting element for constructing biospheres: 3e21kg/(.078kg/m^2) = 4e22 m^2 of lush biosphere topsoil, so use that however you think is appropriate
05:12 < fenn> 40 km^2 per human for a quadrillion humans seems fine
05:13 < kanzure> we are not flat
05:13 < fenn> that's just one star system
05:13 < fenn> this is "land" area
05:13 < fenn> something like banks orbitals or oneill cylinders
05:14 < fenn> at some point i wonder what the point is
05:15 < fenn> human brains aren't made to understand more than a few hundred people
05:15 < fenn> gotta fix that somehow
05:31 < TMA> it is because you need to track all pairwise interactions and information about what the person A knows about interactions between B and C
05:31 < TMA> this explodes rather quickly
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08:39 < docl> apparently bigger neocortex correlates directly to something, apes start othering when they hit 50 whereas humans can handle triple that
08:42 < docl> would be weird if humans have high intelligence mostly as a side effect of the neocortex size required for being able to handle a higher dunbar number and therefore bigger warbands
09:22 < docl> realistically it seems like the pressures that would drive intelligence growth would be multi-factor though. ability to use tools, ability to form a bigger cohesive military unit, ability to form a bigger hunting party, tendency to contribute food to offspring, etc.
09:26 < TMA> in one of the evolutionary biology books I read the intelligence driver was the need to cheat other humans while avoiding being cheated by them
09:33 < docl> perhaps intelligence growth in humans continued until marginal increases to intelligence became maladaptive in the typical case, e.g. so much empathy you wind up donating resources to non-related people, so much smarts you get sidetracked from practical matters like food and sex by obsessing about geometric patterns and abstractions. it might not be that we've exhausted the low hanging fruit so much as 
09:33 < docl> genius is the degenerate case that evolution mostly seeks to avoid (the future liberals want lol).
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10:31 < TMA> the future the authoritarians want is bleak as well (lol)
10:32 < TMA> it almost looks like intelligence is just a means to make stupidity more effective
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10:53 < docl> how does intelligence make stupidity more effective?
11:08 < TMA> docl: look at politicians for a sample of the effect
11:09 < docl> IMO it's more like stupidity is conserved by evolution in many scenarios, so the fact that intelligence breaks this prevents it from being conserved as much as it otherwise would be
11:11 < TMA> like you have the stupid idea "the X are dragging our country down" (for some X: bourgeoise, jewry, negroes, immigrants, british colonial administration, indians, ...)
11:12 < TMA> and then you apply intelligence to promote that stupid idea and some "solution" of the "problem"
11:16 < L29Ah> i think you're focusing on distracting propaganda too much
11:17 < L29Ah> stupid ideas aren't pushed to their ends most of the time, yet they work exceptionally well to keep people busy arguing, taking sides, etc
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--- Log closed Tue Oct 29 00:00:34 2024