--- Log opened Mon Jun 09 00:00:07 2025
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13:37 < kanzure> here is my anti-doomer AI rant https://x.com/kanzure/status/1932172994950176950
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14:44 < superkuh> https://existentialcomics.com/comic/540
14:53 < hprmbridge> kanzure> okay, but where did the industrialists come from
15:00 < TMA> kanzure: AI is a problem for the society not because it is a change, but because of the velocity of the change which seems to be getting greater than the capacity of people to adjust
15:00 < hprmbridge> kanzure> people are highly adaptable, and I also think willing
15:01 < TMA> we still don't have anything to make 50 year olds to react and learn as fast as 25 years old
15:05 < TMA> I am still awfully smart, but most of my ability of tackling problems now is pattern matching and using cached solutions as opposed to a time 25 years ago when I was able to invent those solutions on the fly
15:07 < TMA> ["awfully smart" = I have been told several times by different people that my propensity to "thinking too much" is annoying, that having less optimized outputs is preferable]
15:09 < TMA> if the sort of problems I will encounter in the future will be significantly different than those in my pool of cached solutions, I will be less apt at solving them, because my ability of generating new solution is not realtime now
15:10 < TMA> That might make me more likable, but I would be worse off overall.
15:13 < TMA> OTOH it might help gen Z to thrive, because others will be too old to be mentally capable of keeping up
15:17 < TMA> I have recently encountered a phenomenon where people under 25 know their age as a fact, while those older don't update their fact base and calculate their age with each retrieval. I don't know why that's the case, but I have encountered on several occasions (N is about 10)
15:18 < TMA> it suggests that strategye for updating remembered facts changes with age as well
15:19 < TMA> so "just embrace AI" sounds awfully lot like "have you tried not having the flu?" type of recomendation
15:21 < TMA> AI adoption is inevitable and we should make use of it. I am no luddite, I just understand why others might be. I don't dismiss their concerns as irrelevant _to them_.
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15:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> yes well overthinking is a contagion for sure. just stop. use clicker training if you have to.
15:26 < hprmbridge> kanzure> job loss is pretty bad but I'm not sure we should attribute it to AI, and even if we did why would it matter to do so ?
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15:38 < jrayhawk> "no longer able to receive capital in exchange for labor" is more than just "change" or "adaptation"
16:01 < hprmbridge> kanzure> isn't that how mass layoffs present themselves though
16:01 < hprmbridge> kanzure> like if you flood the labor market with 10 million people
16:04 < hprmbridge> Eli> Medicare is set to start to tap out in the 2030s. The reason Elon wants to cut government spending is to buy us more time before entitlements collapse. This will allow us more time to develop AGI to replace doctors and alleviate the pain and suffering that would occur with our entitlement programs tapping out. If AGI is magical enough, it could potentially increase GDP enough to where interest on
16:04 < hprmbridge> Eli> the debt won't exceed tax revenue. If interest exceeds tax revenue, we enter into a world that most Americans have not experienced. I'm not sure what this will look like. I think about this problem a lot. Maybe everyday lately. But, maybe I'm just weird.
16:07 < hprmbridge> Eli> Basically, coal miners didn't become computer scientists when they got laid off. They sort of just became alcoholics and died early of multiple things. So, some people will suffer while others win. But, we don't really have any options. We are pretty much relying on magical uninvented technology to rescue the economy. Which, actually could happen, just because AGI/ASI would be one of the most
16:07 < hprmbridge> Eli> significant inventions in human history.
16:08 < jrayhawk> tax revenue becomes less and less relevant as the U.S. economy becomes a lower and lower percentage of dollar-backed value exchange; it is not a relevant breaking point except insofar as it makes it more obvious how bretton woods economic imperialism works
16:08 < hprmbridge> kanzure> elon should have hired 10,000 people to do the cuts
16:08 < hprmbridge> kanzure> or more
16:10 < hprmbridge> Eli> Politicians will be the last ones to lose their jobs because AI is supposed to be truth seeking.
16:10 < jrayhawk> prediction-error-minimizing, not truth-seeking
16:12 < jrayhawk> there is a cost to modifying internal state and a cost to modifying external state. minimizing the unpredictability of politics and humanity is going to turn out to be much cheaper than thousands of years of human exceptionalism propaganda would have you believe.
16:21 < hprmbridge> Eli> You've got me here. Is this not the same thing? In any case, politics seems to be bad at both. I'm constantly suprised how wrong politicians are at predicting the future. I think truth doesn't even matter. You just say whatever your focus group told you to say. And, then when your prediction is wrong, you memory hole it. "Everything good is because of me. Everything bad is because of my political
16:21 < hprmbridge> Eli> opponent." Actually, maybe this would be super easy for a robot to replace, now that I think about it.
16:26 < jrayhawk> One can minimize prediction error by glassing the planet with nukes until no more than one entity capable of competing in anti-inductive games remains. "truth-seeking" is a mis-systemization of an instinctive admiration humans have for induction-conditioning games and the progression of predictive capacity they engender.
17:02 < L29Ah> 00:01:57]<TMA> we still don't have anything to make 50 year olds to react and learn as fast as 25 years old
17:02 < L29Ah> i recommend psychedelic drugs as a first-line approach/research targets; also valproate is an interesting one
17:05 < L29Ah> how can one escape overfitting and settling in a shitty local minimum? add a lot more noise
17:09 < L29Ah> 00:17:07]<TMA> I have recently encountered a phenomenon where people under 25 know their age as a fact, while those older don't update their fact base and calculate their age with each retrieval. I don't know why that's the case, but I have encountered on several occasions (N is about 10)
17:09 < L29Ah> or because no one asks older people their age anymore, so they don't cache it?
17:10 < L29Ah> and are too tired of birthday parties
17:12 < L29Ah> 01:04:25]<hprmbridge> Eli> the debt won't exceed tax revenue. If interest exceeds tax revenue, we enter into a world that most Americans have not experienced. I'm not sure what this will look like. I think about this problem a lot. Maybe everyday lately. But, maybe I'm just weird.
17:12 < L29Ah> easy: print more dollars, pay the debts with it, let the dollar become zimbabwean and the world to finally switch to [bitcoin]
17:13 < L29Ah> > We are pretty much relying on magical uninvented technology to rescue the economy.
17:13 < L29Ah> you?
18:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> https://www.superabundance.com/
19:06 < fenn> "On average, every additional human being created more value than he or she consumed." was this ever in doubt? otherwise how could we have massive waste and destruction all the time
19:08 < fenn> the eco-deathist narrative is that there is a finite supply of resources, and that's the proper argument to be had
19:10 < fenn> specifically that we are anywhere near the earth-based limits (nevermind the entire rest of the universe which is literally a dumpster fire of astronomical waste)
19:30 < fenn> we're memetically unprepared to even perceive the scale of the challenge ahead
19:33 < hprmbridge> Eli> Please dont take valproate for cognitive enhancement. The concern I hear about with psychoactives like lsd is difficulty with dose response. I think mdma has a more predictable dose response for ptsd for example. But with lsd it can be difficult to know   what the trip is going to be like. A successful tech founder I worked next to everyday got into psychoactives and destroyed his company and his
19:33 < hprmbridge> Eli> life. Unsure if it was completely due to the drugs, but I think they didn’t help.
19:34 < hprmbridge> Eli> When bitcoin was first getting introduced to Africa a guy from Zimbabwe gave me this as a gift. https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1064664282450628710/1381823795282575421/IMG_1936.jpg?ex=6848eb31&is=684799b1&hm=70641800b58425168baa125c257ee61ba292f6ab729436c5ed58a3068a34f0e1&
19:35 < fenn> we had some hundred trillion dollar bills floating around, should have kept one
19:36 < fenn> it was just a funny joke but now it's a collector's item
19:39 < fenn> wouldn't the US bond credit rating make new debt unsellable long before the interest exceeds taxation?
19:41 < fenn> or would that just mean they have even worse (for the US) interest rates
19:42 < hprmbridge> Eli> Good question. I think it would feed into it. Interest on debt would increase as people sought other assets and the credit rating would get worse causing people to seek other assets. It’s a positive feedback cycle.
19:43 < fenn> we would have ot borrow from el salvador
19:44 < jrayhawk> it's the settlement medium for most of the world economy. you don't get to decide not to be exposed to either inflation risk or interest risk without coordinating with 4 billion other people.
19:45 < fenn> why can't they just sell off their dollars once it starts looking bad
19:46 < jrayhawk> because the big players need big and stable liquidity in order to do 9 figure oil, military, and IMF deals without "buying high and selling low" on the U.S. dollar, and big and stable liquidity results from all the big players using it
19:47 < fenn> i agree that nice things are nice, but that doesn't seem to be an argument?
19:47 < fenn> if cooperation being optimal resulted in people cooperating, we wouldn't have many problems
19:48 < jrayhawk> trading pairs outside of the dollar have no liquidity
19:49 < fenn> there's not enough gold in the world?
19:49 < fenn> 9 figures is a billion dollars right? that's not very much
19:54 < fenn> llama estimates that there is ~$10T in gold reserves
19:58 < jrayhawk> reserves aren't liquidity. good luck buying and physically transporting $1b worth of gold without moving markets so much that you've either instantly lost more than U.S. interest rates or spent literal months on delays and counterparty risk insurance.
20:01 < hprmbridge> Eli> In the past, the gold from around the world was stored in one bank. A white square was painted around each countries gold. At the end of the day they would transfer the gold a few feet from one countries square to another to settle accounts.
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21:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> dead as of 2025-04-15 https://openwetware.org/
21:34 < fenn> oh no how will we afford A WIKI
21:35 < fenn> are you fucking serious
21:39 < hprmbridge> kanzure> please sir
21:39 < hprmbridge> kanzure> the bytes, they cost too much
21:40 < hprmbridge> kanzure> pretty sure we have a backup somewhere
21:41 < fenn> not i
21:44 < hprmbridge> kanzure> diyhpl.us/~bryan/irc/openwetware.xml.bz2
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22:20 < hprmbridge> nmz787> Oh that sucks. When's the backup from?
22:23 < hprmbridge> kanzure> looks like 2012.......
--- Log closed Tue Jun 10 00:00:08 2025