From: Roy Badami <roy@gnomon•org.uk>
To: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail•com>
Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists•sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: Block Size Increase Requirements
Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2015 21:15:03 +0100 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <20150601201503.GF13473@giles.gnomon.org.uk> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <20150601200149.GE13473@giles.gnomon.org.uk>
On Mon, Jun 01, 2015 at 09:01:49PM +0100, Roy Badami wrote:
> > What do other people think? Would starting at a max of 8 or 4 get
> > consensus? Scaling up a little less than Nielsen's Law of Internet
> > Bandwidth predicts for the next 20 years? (I think predictability is
> > REALLY important).
>
> TL;DR: Personally I'm in favour of doing something relatively
> uncontroversial (say, a simple increase in the block size to something
> in the 4-8GB range) with no further increases without a further hard
> fork.
And the other bit I should have added to my TL;DR:
If we end up spending a significant proportion of the next 20 years
discussing the then _next_ hard fork, that's a *good* thing, not a
*bad* thing. Hard forks need to become, if not entirely routine, then
certainly less scary. A sequence of (relatively) uncontroversial hard
forks over time is way more likely to gain consensus than a single
hard fork that attempts to set a schedule for block size increases out
to 2035. IMHO.
>
> I'm not sure how relevent Nielsen's Law really is. The only relevent
> data points Nielsen has really boil down to a law about how the speed
> of his cable modem connection has changed during the period 1998-2014.
>
> Interesting though that is, it's not hugely relevent to
> bandwidth-intensive operations like running a full node. The problem
> is he's only looking at the actual speed of his connection in Mbps,
> not the amount of data usage in GB/month that his provider permits -
> and there's no particular reason to expect that both of those two
> figures follow the same curve. In particular, we're more interested
> in the cost of backhaul and IP transit (which is what drives the
> GB/month figure) than we are in improvements in DOCSIS technology,
> which have little relevence to node operators even on cable modem, and
> none to any other kind of full node operator, be it on DSL or in a
> datacentre.
>
> More importantly, I also think a scheduled ramp up is an unnecessary
> complication. Why do we need to commit now to future block size
> increases perhaps years into the future? I'd rather schedule an
> uncontroversial hard fork now (if such thing is possible) even if
> there's a very real expectation - even an assumption - that by the
> time the fork has taken place, it's already time to start discussing
> the next one. Any curve or schedule of increases that stretches years
> into the future is inevitably going to be controversial - and more so
> the further into the future it stretches - simply because the
> uncertainties around the Bitcoin landscape are going to be greater the
> further ahead we look.
>
> If a simple increase from 1GB to 4GB or 8GB will solve the problem for
> now, why not do that? Yes, it's quite likely we'll have to do it
> again, but we'll be able to make that decision in the light of the
> 2016 or 2017 landscape and can again make a simple, hopefully
> uncontroversial, increase in the limit at that time.
>
> So, with the proviso that I think this is all bike shedding, if I had
> to pick my favourite colour for the bike shed, it would be to schedule
> a hard fork that increases the 1GB limit (to something in the 4-8GB
> range) but with no further increases without a further hard fork.
>
> Personally I think trying to pick the best value of the 2035 block
> size now is about as foolish as trying to understand now the economics
> of Bitcoin mining many halvings hence.
>
> NB: this is not saying that I think we shouldn't go above 8GB in the
> relatively foreseeable future; quite the contrary, I strongly expect
> that we will. I just don't see the need to pick the 2020 block size
> now when we can easily make a far better informed decision as to the
> 2020 block size in 2018 or even 2019.
>
> As to knowing what the block size is going to be for the next 20 years
> being "REALLY important"? 100% disagree. I also think it's
> impossible, because even if you manage to get consensus on a block
> size increase schedule that stretches out to 2035 (and my prediction
> is you won't) the reality is that that block size schedule will have
> been modified by a future hard fork long before we get to 2035.
>
> What I personally think is REALLY important is that the Bitcoin
> community demonstrates an ability to react appropriately to changing
> requirements and conditions - and we'll only be able to react to those
> conditions when we know what they are! My expectation is that there
> will be several (hopefully _relatively_ uncontroversial) scheduled
> hard forks between now and 2035, and each of those will be discussed
> in suitable detail before being agreed. And that's as it should be.
>
> roy
next prev parent reply other threads:[~2015-06-01 20:15 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 73+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2015-05-07 22:02 [Bitcoin-development] " Matt Corallo
2015-05-07 23:24 ` Joseph Poon
2015-05-08 0:05 ` Peter Todd
2015-05-08 6:33 ` Arkady
2015-05-08 10:03 ` Mike Hearn
2015-05-08 16:37 ` Peter Todd
2015-05-08 19:47 ` Tier Nolan
2015-05-09 3:08 ` Peter Todd
2015-05-16 4:39 ` Stephen
2015-05-16 11:29 ` Tier Nolan
2015-05-16 11:25 ` Tier Nolan
2015-05-29 22:36 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-29 23:25 ` Matt Corallo
[not found] ` <CABsx9T3__mHZ_kseRg-w-x2=8v78QJLhe+BWPezv+hpbFCufpw@mail.gmail.com>
2015-05-30 19:32 ` Matt Corallo
2015-05-30 20:37 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 14:46 ` Jorge Timón
2015-05-31 14:49 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 14:59 ` Jorge Timón
2015-05-31 15:08 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 15:45 ` Jorge Timón
2015-05-29 23:42 ` Chun Wang
2015-05-30 13:57 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-30 14:08 ` Pindar Wong
2015-05-30 22:05 ` Alex Mizrahi
2015-05-30 23:16 ` Brian Hoffman
2015-05-31 0:13 ` Alex Mizrahi
2015-05-31 5:05 ` gb
[not found] ` <CAFzgq-z5WCznGhbOexS0XESNGAVauw45ewEV-1eMij7yDT61=Q@mail.gmail.com>
2015-05-31 1:31 ` [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: " Chun Wang
2015-05-31 2:20 ` Pindar Wong
2015-05-31 12:40 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 13:45 ` Alex Mizrahi
2015-05-31 14:54 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 22:55 ` Alex Mizrahi
2015-05-31 23:23 ` Ricardo Filipe
2015-05-31 23:40 ` Pindar Wong
2015-05-31 23:58 ` Ricardo Filipe
2015-06-01 0:03 ` Pindar Wong
2015-06-01 7:57 ` Alex Mizrahi
2015-06-01 10:13 ` Mike Hearn
2015-06-01 10:42 ` Pindar Wong
2015-06-01 11:26 ` Peter Todd
2015-06-01 12:19 ` Pindar Wong
2015-06-01 11:02 ` Chun Wang
2015-06-01 11:09 ` Pindar Wong
2015-06-01 11:20 ` Chun Wang
2015-06-01 13:59 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-06-01 14:08 ` Chun Wang
2015-06-01 15:33 ` Mike Hearn
2015-06-01 16:06 ` Ángel José Riesgo
2015-06-01 14:46 ` Oliver Egginger
2015-06-01 14:48 ` Chun Wang
2015-06-01 16:43 ` Yifu Guo
2015-06-01 20:01 ` Roy Badami
2015-06-01 20:15 ` Roy Badami [this message]
2015-06-01 13:21 ` Mike Hearn
2015-06-01 12:29 ` Warren Togami Jr.
2015-06-01 13:15 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 12:52 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 13:31 ` [Bitcoin-development] [Bulk] " gb
2015-05-31 19:49 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 14:17 ` [Bitcoin-development] " Dave Hudson
2015-05-31 14:34 ` Yifu Guo
2015-05-31 14:47 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-05-31 7:05 ` [Bitcoin-development] " Peter Todd
2015-05-31 12:51 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-06-01 11:12 [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: " Thy Shizzle
2015-06-01 13:06 Thy Shizzle
2015-06-01 18:19 ` Warren Togami Jr.
2015-06-01 18:30 ` Mike Hearn
2015-06-01 18:44 ` Adam Back
2015-06-01 19:23 ` Btc Drak
2015-06-01 21:32 Thy Shizzle
2015-06-01 22:13 ` Pindar Wong
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