From: Tom Harding <tomh@thinlink•com>
To: Dave Hudson <dave@hashingit•com>
Cc: bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Răspuns: Personal opinion on the fee market from a worried local trader
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 07:57:27 -0700 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <55BA3B57.2060101@thinlink.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <58D8CEFE-2763-452E-B731-DDF7AFD77677@hashingit.com>
Yes. So far, the transaction count factor has completely dominated the
per-tx fee factor. This fact should be of great interest to miners.
On 7/30/2015 7:25 AM, Dave Hudson wrote:
>
>> On 30 Jul 2015, at 06:14, Tom Harding via bitcoin-dev
>> <bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org
>> <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org>> wrote:
>>
>> Another empirical fact also needs explaining. Why have average fees *as
>> measured in BTC* risen during the times of highest public interest in
>> bitcoin? This happened without block size pressure, and it is not an
>> exchange rate effect -- these are raw BTC fees:
>>
>> https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=all&daysAverageString=7
>
> I've not published any new figures for about 8 months (will try to do
> that this weekend), but the thing that that chart doesn't show is
> what's actually happening to fees per transaction. Here's a chart that
> does: http://hashingit.com/analysis/35-the-future-of-bitcoin-transaction-fees
>
> The data is also taken from blockchain.info so it's apples-for-apples.
> It shows that far from a fees going up they spent 3 years dropping. I
> just ran a new chart and the decline in fees continued until about 8
> weeks when the "stress tests" first occurred. Even so, they're still
> below the level from the end of 2013. By comparison the total
> transaction volume is up about 2.4x to 2.5x (don't have the exact number).
>
>> ... more evidence that conclusively refutes the conjecture that a
>> production quota is necessary for a "functioning fee market." A
>> production quota merely pushes up fees. We have a functioning market,
>> and so far, it shows that wider bitcoin usage is even more effective
>> than a quota at pushing up fees.
>
> I think it's equally easy to argue (from the same data) that wider
> adoption has actually caused wallet users to become much more
> effective at fee selection. Miners (as expected, assuming that they
> hadn't formed a cartel) have continued to accept whatever fees are
> available, no matter how small. Only where there has been an element
> of scarcity have we actually seen miners do anything but take whatever
> is offered.
>
> Clearly history is not an accurate indicator of what might happen in
> the future, but it seems difficult to argue that there has been any
> sort of fee market emerge to date (other than as a result of scarcity
> during the stress tests).
>
next prev parent reply other threads:[~2015-07-30 14:57 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 21+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
[not found] <CADZB0_ZgDMhVgCUh2PTAPDL7k_W8QGt_HLYdkwv_qQ5xEMn8HA@mail.gmail.com>
2015-07-29 14:09 ` Vali Zero
2015-07-29 17:47 ` Raystonn .
2015-07-29 22:54 ` s7r
2015-07-30 3:41 ` Ryan Butler
2015-07-30 4:00 ` Adam Back
2015-07-30 4:05 ` Adam Back
2015-07-30 4:48 ` Ryan Butler
2015-07-30 13:14 ` Tom Harding
2015-07-30 14:25 ` Dave Hudson
2015-07-30 14:57 ` Tom Harding [this message]
2015-07-30 18:14 ` Jorge Timón
2015-07-30 18:16 ` Jorge Timón
2015-07-30 20:53 ` Tom Harding
2015-07-31 1:21 ` Jorge Timón
2015-07-31 1:29 ` Jorge Timón
2015-07-31 9:56 ` Thomas Zander
2015-07-31 12:32 ` Oleg Andreev
2015-07-31 15:24 ` Jorge Timón
2015-07-30 12:45 ` Ivan Brightly
2015-07-30 4:07 ` Jean-Paul Kogelman
2015-07-30 9:52 ` odinn
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