From: ZmnSCPxj <ZmnSCPxj@protonmail•com>
To: Prayank <prayank@tutanota•de>
Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Prediction Markets and Bitcoin
Date: Tue, 18 May 2021 12:15:58 +0000 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <6vNu7L3ixnPdpuxQFOusZYDQK8uuuylD5XecO8WXi386DtXN5LsNS-lHm_cScC5QBpRXe8Y7Ab0QWishbVMKPW75gqJHS69PSlqY9iZEQBE=@protonmail.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <M_PfAhN--3-2@tutanota.de>
Good morning Prayank,
>
> > Of course the people ultimately funding the development must impose what direction that development goes to, after all, it is their money that is being modified. Thus development must follow the market.
>
> Disagree.
>
> 1.A position in a futures market about possible outcomes of an event is not equivalent to funding Bitcoin development.
>
> 2.People or organizations funding Bitcoin developers or projects can always have some opinion, influence and disagreements. They can never impose or force something at least in Bitcoin protocol.
Sorry for the late reply.
I expect that many Bitcoin developers have a nontrivial amount of their life savings in Bitcoin.
Any change in Bitcoin price represents a significant change in the value of these life savings.
A position in a futures market represents a prediction by the one taking the position that they expect the price of Bitcoin to change in a particular direction, possibly based on some condition, including the direction where development goes.
This signal then represents an implicit threat ("if Bitcoin goes against this position, I will liquidate my Bitcoin and drop the Bitcoin price") which can be sufficient to "fund" or "de-fund" developers who have a significant stake in Bitcoin.
> I don't think futures market in this case will be able to aggregate and reflect all available information so everything mentioned above has its own importance which should be considered. Maybe I missed few things.
*Some* information > *No* information
>
> 3.Incorrect usage of futures markets in Bitcoin and other issues:
Well, yes, this is the hard part, sigh.
Regards,
ZmnSCPxj
prev parent reply other threads:[~2021-05-18 12:16 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 4+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2021-04-07 19:07 Prayank
2021-04-16 3:39 ` ZmnSCPxj
2021-05-11 9:05 ` Prayank
2021-05-18 12:15 ` ZmnSCPxj [this message]
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