Step 2 (futures market) is the option I would say I understand the least. In any case, a futures market seems like it only incorporates the opinions/predictions of the group of people willing to bet money on things like this. This is likely to be a rather small group of particular types of people. I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the theories that betting rings like this are good at predicting against the inherent selection bias of the group of betting individuals. Going just by number of individuals (or probably even by amount of currency risked) this seems like a futures market would inherently be a small and biased group. Potentially useful, but I wouldn't assume that it could be taken stand-alone as a proxy for consensus. 

I'm curious what you think about a coin-weighted poll like I suggested here being added to that list of steps? Surely this would be a broader group of people than a futures market, tho still obviously a group subject to selection bias. 

@jeremy drops the bomb. I'm sure Jorge will be running this within the year.