Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Speedy Trial

From: Billy Tetrud <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2022 23:17:20 -0500

@Aj Your steps seem reasonable. I definitely agree step one (talking to
each other) is obviously the ideal solution, when it works.

Step 2 (futures market) is the option I would say I understand the least.
In any case, a futures market seems like it only incorporates the
opinions/predictions of the group of people willing to bet money on things
like this. This is likely to be a rather small group of particular types of
people. I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the theories that betting
rings like this are good at predicting against the inherent selection bias
of the group of betting individuals. Going just by number of individuals
(or probably even by amount of currency risked) this seems like a futures
market would inherently be a small and biased group. Potentially useful,
but I wouldn't assume that it could be taken stand-alone as a proxy for
consensus.

I'm curious what you think about a coin-weighted poll like I suggested here
<https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-May/019022.html>
being
added to that list of steps? Surely this would be a broader group of people
than a futures market, tho still obviously a group subject to selection
bias.

@jeremy drops the bomb. I'm sure Jorge will be running this within the
year.

On Tue, Mar 15, 2022 at 12:25 PM Jeremy Rubin via bitcoin-dev <
[email-masked]> wrote:

> Boker tov bitcoin devs,
>
> A mechanism of soft-forking against activation exists.  What more do you
>> want?
>>
>
> Agreed -- that should be enough.
>
>
>
>> Are we supposed to write the code on behalf of this hypothetical group of
>> users who may or may not exist for them just so that they can have a node
>> that remains stalled on Speedy Trial lockin?
>>
> That simply isn't reasonable, but if you think it is, I invite you to
>> create such a fork.
>>
>
> Disagree.
>
> It is a reasonable ask.
>
> I've done it in about 40 lines of python:
> https://github.com/jeremyrubin/forkd
>
> Merry Christmas Jorge, please vet the code carefully before running.
>
> Peace,
>
> Jeremy
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