The expectation is that in a few years a space in the block will be very
competitive / expensive and be used only as a bridge for second layers or
big transactions. Who would have thought in 2017 that one day we would be
worried about cheap rates!

Anyway, it seems like a good point and I suggest giving this issue some
name for easy and later reference.


On Mon, Jul 11, 2022 at 3:20 PM Bram Cohen via bitcoin-dev <
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:

> If transaction fees came in at an even rate over time all at the exact
> same level then they work fine for security, acting similarly to fixed
> block rewards. Unfortunately that isn't how it works in the real world.
> There's a very well established day/night cycle with fees going to zero
> overnight and even longer gaps on weekends and holidays. If in the future
> Bitcoin is entirely dependent on fees for security (scheduled very
> strongly) and this pattern keeps up (overwhelmingly likely) then this is
> going to become a serious problem.
>
> What's likely to happen is that at first there will simply be no or very
> few blocks mined overnight. There are likely to be some, as miners at first
> turn off their mining rigs completely overnight then adopt the more
> sophisticated strategy of waiting until there are enough fees in the
> mempool to warrant attempting to make a block and only then doing it.
> Unfortunately the gaming doesn't end there. Eventually the miners with
> lower costs of operation will figure out that they can collectively reorg
> the last hour (or some time period) of the day overnight and this will be
> profitable. That's likely to cause the miners with more expensive
> operations to stop attempting mining the last hour of the day preemptively.
>
> What happens after that I'm not sure. There are a small enough number of
> miners with a quirky enough distribution of costs of operation and
> profitability that the dynamic is heavily dependent on those specifics, but
> the beginnings of a slippery slope to a mining cabal which reorgs everyone
> else out of existence and eventually 51% attacks the whole thing have
> begun. It even gets worse than that because once there's a cabal
> aggressively reorging anyone else out when they make a block other miners
> will shut down and rapidly lose the ability to quickly spin up again, so
> the threshold needed for that 51% attack will keep going down.
>
> In short, relying completely on transaction fees for security is likely to
> be a disaster. What we can say from existing experience is that having
> transaction fees be about 10% of rewards on average works well. It's enough
> to incentivize collecting fees but not so much that it makes incentives get
> all weird. 90% transaction fees is probably very bad. 50% works but runs
> the risk of spikes getting too high.
>
> There are a few possible approaches to fixes. One would be to drag most of
> east asia eastward to a later time zone thus smoothing out the day/night
> cycle but that's probably unrealistic. Another would be to hard fork in
> fixed rewards in perpetuity, which is slightly less unrealistic but still
> extremely problematic.
>
> Much more actionable are measures which smooth out fees over time. Having
> wallets opportunistically collect their dust during times of low
> transaction fees would help and would save users on fees. Also making UX
> which clarifies when things are likely to take a day or week but that it's
> reliable would be a reasonable thing to do, but users unfortunately are
> very averse to transactions taking a while.
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