Yes - but you must recognize that is precisely 50% of the picture.
Others have made different assumptions - taking the [1MB-constrained] market
as it exists today, rather than in some projected future.
Raising the block size limit then becomes a
human decision to favor some users over others, a
human decision to prevent an active and competitive free fee market developing at 1MB, a
human decision to keep transaction fees low to incentivize bitcoin adoption, a
human decision to value adoption over decentralization.
These statements are not value judgements - not saying you are wrong - these are observations of some rather huge, relevant blind spots in this debate.