From: Anthony Towns <aj@erisian•com.au>
To: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail•com>
Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance"
Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 00:22:19 +1000 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <CAJS_LCXkr1y+4ENbvT5B-kJiN=fJWX9CMgknbBfS3dDtVMm+0w@mail.gmail.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <CABsx9T1E1s=4h-SxLTOAXK4GniZrUekcEb6zDdTDFG+h7X98MA@mail.gmail.com>
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On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <
bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to wrestle
> with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
> https://blocksizedebate.com/
>
The scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so those
numbers aren't live. But...
Network hash rate
3,255.17 PH/s (same block size)
5,032.64 PH/s (block size increase)
4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)
3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)
Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the
current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for
the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period
too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year,
when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it
just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given
that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with
bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. Also,
12.5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price
increase is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block
reward reduction.
Daily transaction volume
168,438.22 tx/day (same block size)
193,773.08 tx/day (block size increase)
192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee)
168,406.73 tx/day (replace-by-fee)
That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size
increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a
30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If
that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be
enough for the next two years...
(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to
increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation
risks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm
not sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)
Cheers,
aj
--
Anthony Towns <aj@erisian•com.au>
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next prev parent reply other threads:[~2015-08-04 14:22 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 29+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2015-08-03 15:22 Gavin Andresen
[not found] ` <1438640036.2828.0.camel@auspira.com>
2015-08-03 22:21 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-08-04 6:40 ` [bitcoin-dev] "A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block Size Limit"--new research paper suggests Peter R
2015-08-04 18:41 ` Dave Hudson
2015-08-04 21:18 ` Peter Todd
2015-08-04 21:30 ` Gavin Andresen
2015-08-04 21:46 ` Peter Todd
2015-08-05 0:26 ` Milly Bitcoin
2015-08-05 0:40 ` Neil Fincham
2015-08-04 23:37 ` Dave Hudson
2015-08-05 22:15 ` Peter R
2015-08-05 22:44 ` Dave Hudson
2015-08-05 23:45 ` Tom Harding
2015-08-05 8:33 ` Benjamin
2015-08-05 9:18 ` Hector Chu
2015-08-05 9:57 ` Adam Back
2015-08-05 10:51 ` Hector Chu
2015-08-05 11:07 ` Adam Back
2015-08-05 11:35 ` Hector Chu
2015-08-05 19:04 ` Hector Chu
2015-08-05 10:26 ` Peter R
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgTzeFnmnr2ScZvf1pDUtF+M3HhF9xo0yhjVPObpqhgz0A@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <6ED57388-6EC3-4515-BF3F-E753301537AB@gmx.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgRoFna4i-d=hpmz-CpV35VQ=J1aEoTTT6B1oD4f15C1KA@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <C8B38FEC-0EF2-483F-9E53-43AB937455A0@gmx.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgQjXNTi9Y_YwLg2dR8baYZhvmEjw43ictt749zR2AOEWw@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <6FED5604-4A6F-4CE1-B42E-36626375D557@gmx.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgQ7hRRvRtD8igcZ2aWBmnqre6iM27peCFGxgC8ODb9jgw@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <6BA86443-7534-4AAA-92BC-EC9B1603DE5F@gmx.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgTTZKD9LQHpMmEH0OU=T8Ta7cCaavWzhM1yQ68-MAT8UQ@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <27B16AB4-0DAD-4665-BF08-7A0C0A70D8D8@gmx.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgRm_CSmWgr7CGmBUD0nX+V0fJ8N4TQN01Vchgip9-s6uQ@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgT+DP+DaoCMG276uF4=Yoi-w40YyNP-RDRG7NQgOmtpGw@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <CAEgR2PGn_SER18sMuKPJJz5RT=1K=346eCm ph5FJQhhoLcV1zw@mail.gmail.com>
[not found] ` <CAEgR2PGn_SER18sMuKPJJz5RT=1K=346eCmph5FJQhhoLcV1zw@mail.gmail.com>
2015-08-30 20:08 ` Peter R
2015-08-30 21:02 ` Daniele Pinna
2015-08-04 14:22 ` Anthony Towns [this message]
2015-08-04 18:28 ` [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance" Owen
2015-08-05 3:07 ` Eric Lombrozo
2015-08-05 6:32 ` Mashuri Clark
2015-08-05 13:28 ` Mashuri Clark
2015-08-07 16:26 ` Thomas Zander
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