You're entire argument seems to be based on this assumption.

>I support the 95% chain (because I'm not insane)

I fail to see how always following a majority of miners no matter what
their actions somehow equates to insanity.


On Tue, Sep 29, 2015 at 9:04 AM, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:

> I keep seeing statements like this:
>
> On Tue, Sep 29, 2015 at 9:30 AM, Jonathan Toomim (Toomim Bros) via
> bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>> As a further benefit to hard forks, anybody who is ideologically opposed
>> to the change can continue to use the old version successfully, as long as
>> there are enough miners to keep the fork alive.
>
>
> ... but I can't see how that would work.
>
> Lets say there is a hard fork, and 5% of miners stubbornly refuse to go
> along with the 95% majority (for this thought experiment, it doesn't matter
> if the old rules or new rules 'win').
>
> Lets further imagine that some exchange decides to support that 5% and
> lets people trade coins from that fork (one of the small altcoin exchanges
> would definitely do this if they think they can make a profit).
>
> Now, lets say I've got a lot of pre-fork bitcoin; they're valid on both
> sides of the fork. I support the 95% chain (because I'm not insane), but
> I'm happy to take people's money if they're stupid enough to give it to me.
>
> So, I do the following:
>
> 1) Create a send-to-self transaction on the 95% fork that is ONLY valid on
> the 95% fork (maybe I CoinJoin with a post-fork coinbase transaction, or
> just move my coins into then out of an exchange's very active hot wallet so
> I get coins with a long transaction history on the 95% side of the fork).
>
> 2) Transfer  those same coins to the 5% exchange and sell them for
> whatever price I can get (I don't care how low, it is free money to me-- I
> will still own the coins on the 95% fork).
>
> I have to do step (1) to prevent the exchange from taking the
> transfer-to-exchange transaction and replaying it on the 95% chain.
>
> I don't see any way of preventing EVERYBODY who has coins on the 95% side
> of the fork from doing that. The result would be a huge free-fall in price
> as I, and everybody else, rushes to get some free money from anybody
> willing to pay us to remain idealogically pure.
>
> Does anybody think something else would happen, and do you think that
> ANYBODY would stick to the 5% fork in the face of enormously long
> transaction confirmation times (~3 hours), a huge transaction backlog as
> lots of the 95%'ers try to sell their coins before the price drops, and a
> massive price drop for coins on the 5% fork.
>
> --
> --
> Gavin Andresen
>
>
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