Miners will learn to create anyone-can-spend outputs to bribe other miners to build on their block rather than reorg it. (Due to the coinbase maturity, this will require some amount of floating capital.)

(reward + avg fee) * 144 * 365 (one year) == approximate investment needed to reorg the chain for a double-spend attack

in 30 years, assuming fees are still negligible (why wouldn't they be? layer 2 works and layer 3 is coming), that's only 1200 bitcoin. not really a lot.

there's only few things that allow that security budget to be ok

- we assume the price goes up a lot

- we assume transactions get a lot more expensive

- we don't care about double-spend attacks for very large transactions

i'd rather engineer block demand than ignore it