On 25 October 2014 21:53, Alex Mizrahi <alex.mizrahi@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> We had a halving, and it was a non-event.
>> Is there some reason to believe next time will be different?
>>
>
> Yes.
>
> When the market is rapidly growing, margins can be relatively high because
> of limited amounts of capital being invested, or introduction of more
> efficient technologies.
>
> However, we should expect market to become more mature with time, and a
> mature market will result in lower margins.
> The halving can do much more damage when margins are relatively small.
>
> Besides that, there is a difference in ecosystem maturity:
>
> 1. Back in 2012, miners weren't so focused on profits, as Bitcoin was
> highly experimental: some were mining for the hell of it (it was a novelty
> thing back then), others wanted to secure the network, others did it
> because it was hard to obtain bitcoins by other means. But now miners are
> mostly profit-motivated: they buy expensive dedicated mining equipment and
> want to maximize profits. As you might know, at one point ghash.io
> reached 50% hashrate, and miners didn't care about it enough to switch to a
> different pool.
>
> 2. Back in 2012, we didn't have multipools. Multipools automatically
> switches between mining different alt-chains to maximize miners' profits.
> Miners who use multipools do not care how their hashrate is used as long as
> they profit off it.
> Particularly, check https://nicehash.com/ -- you can easily buy hashrate
> to attack a smaller alt-coin, for example.
>
> If the halving will result in a significant hashrate drop (and we did
> observe hashrate drop in 2012, although it wasn't that big), it might be
> possible to buy enough hashpower to attack Bitcoin.
>

This is a good point, imho.  Miner sophistication has increased drastically
in 2 years.  Sites like ( http://www.coinwarz.com/ ) can heavily influence
mining, 1-2 orders of magnitude on significant levels of hashing.

I think this is more prevalent with scrypt than sha256, litecoin is set to
half reward in 9 months, and it will be interesting to observe what happens
there.


>
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