It is a trivial code change.  It is not a trivial change to the economics of a $3.2B system.

Hmm - again I'd argue the opposite.

Up until now Bitcoin has been unconstrained by the hard block size limit.

If we raise it, Bitcoin will continue to be unconstrained by it. That's the default "continue as we are" position.

If it's not raised, then ....... well, then we're in new territory entirely. Businesses built on the assumption that Bitcoin could become popular will suddenly have their basic assumptions invalidated. Users will leave. The technical code change would be zero, but the economic change would be significant.