From: Christophe Biocca <christophe.biocca@gmail•com>
To: Neil <kyuupichan@gmail•com>
Cc: Bitcoin Development <bitcoin-development@lists•sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: death by halving
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 17:57:01 -0400 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <CANOOu=-JvCP78kAk67YkwenZgciTc9q0heaP3hLZvoqhu5StUw@mail.gmail.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <CAPf5XX6aDGpNxNorbU_JddwpDhnCdX7z=8MskagorC9qUL+T=Q@mail.gmail.com>
> The fact that it is known in advance is no counter argument to me.
But it does change miner behaviour in pretty significant ways.
Unlike difficulty forecasting, which seems near impossible to do
accurately, miners can plan to purchase less hardware as they approach
the revenue drop. You can do some basic cost/benefit calculation and
see that *if* margins are already low as the halving approaches, then
rational miners would cease purchasing any new hardware that wouldn't
be profitable past that point, unless they expect it to pay for itself
by then.
The lower the margins are, the longer in advance they would alter
their buying behaviour. You'd see an increased focus on cost-effective
hashpower (and older units would not be replaced as they break).
Either a significant supply of cost effective hardware shows up
(because it's the only thing that would sell in the last months), or
difficulty would stall long before the halving happens. Either way,
the predictability of the halving can reduce the hashpower on the day.
On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 5:34 PM, Neil <kyuupichan@gmail•com> wrote:
> Economically a halving is almost the same as a halving in price (as fees
> take up more of the pie, less so).
>
> Coincidentally the price has halved since early July to mid-October, and
> we've not even seen difficulty fall yet.
>
> I don't think there's much to see here.
>
> Neil
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
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> Bitcoin-development mailing list
> Bitcoin-development@lists•sourceforge.net
> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development
>
next prev parent reply other threads:[~2014-10-28 21:57 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 29+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2014-10-25 18:06 [Bitcoin-development] " Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-25 18:12 ` Jeff Garzik
2014-10-25 18:22 ` Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-25 18:31 ` Jeff Garzik
2014-10-25 19:08 ` Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-25 19:16 ` Gavin Andresen
2014-10-25 19:53 ` Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-25 21:50 ` Melvin Carvalho
2014-10-28 20:17 ` Ferdinando M. Ametrano
[not found] ` <CAAS2fgSiz-XRVQ4V+KbrTUWG4=g=WGf8c-pF4b4fFnfyU9HOqQ@mail.gmail.com>
2014-10-28 20:36 ` [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: " Gregory Maxwell
2014-10-28 20:57 ` Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-28 21:19 ` Jérémie Dubois-Lacoste
2014-10-28 21:43 ` Gregory Maxwell
2014-10-28 22:43 ` Ferdinando M. Ametrano
2014-10-29 14:34 ` [Bitcoin-development] Death by halving (pro-active proposals) Sergio Lerner
2014-10-29 17:25 ` Jeff Garzik
2014-10-28 21:23 ` [Bitcoin-development] Fwd: death by halving Ferdinando M. Ametrano
2014-10-28 21:34 ` Neil
2014-10-28 21:44 ` Ferdinando M. Ametrano
2014-10-28 22:00 ` Thomas Zander
2014-10-28 22:38 ` Ferdinando M. Ametrano
2014-10-28 21:57 ` Christophe Biocca [this message]
2014-10-25 20:27 ` [Bitcoin-development] " Adam Back
2014-10-25 20:43 ` Thomas Zander
2014-10-25 20:28 ` Thomas Zander
2014-10-25 20:49 ` Alex Mizrahi
2014-10-25 21:51 ` Alexander Leishman
2014-10-25 22:10 ` Ross Nicoll
2014-10-25 22:42 ` Melvin Carvalho
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