From: Anthony Towns <aj@erisian•com.au>
To: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists•linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] On mempool policy consistency
Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2022 12:40:14 +1000 [thread overview]
Message-ID: <Y13kDu5XHtaZVWih@erisian.com.au> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <Y13NM4dyuD6ktvlf@erisian.com.au>
On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 11:02:43AM +1000, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> > Some napkin math: there are about 250,000 transactions a day; if
> > we round that up to 100 million a year and assume we only want one
> > transaction per year to fail to initially propagate on a network where
> > 30% of nodes have adopted a more permissive policy, lightweight clients
> > will need to connect to over 50 randomly selected nodes.[1]
> A target failure probability of 1-in-1e8 means:
Oh, based on the "receive version message" log entries of a node that
only does outbound connections, over the last ~3 weeks I see about 3000
outbound connections (mostly feelers/block-relay-only ones), of which
a bunch identify as non-taproot supporting:
10 /Satoshi:0.16.0/:
13 /Satoshi:0.17.0/:
13 /Satoshi:0.17.0.1/:
28 /Satoshi:0.16.3/:
29 /Satoshi:0.19.0.1/:
36 /Satoshi:0.18.1/:
37 /Satoshi:0.19.1/:
39 /Satoshi:0.17.1/:
50 /Satoshi:0.20.0/:
94 /Satoshi:0.21.0/:
95 /Satoshi:0.18.0/:
244 /Satoshi:0.20.1/:
Those add up to 688+ of 3065 total; if that's representative, it
presumably means a random node connecting to 8 random listening peers has
a 6.44-in-1-million chance of only connecting to peers that don't support
taproot, ie failing your suggested threshold by a factor of about 644.
Cheers,
aj
next prev parent reply other threads:[~2022-10-30 2:40 UTC|newest]
Thread overview: 33+ messages / expand[flat|nested] mbox.gz Atom feed top
2022-10-26 23:52 Anthony Towns
2022-10-27 12:36 ` Gloria Zhao
2022-10-27 15:37 ` Anthony Towns
2022-10-27 18:17 ` Luke Dashjr
2022-10-27 13:49 ` Greg Sanders
2022-10-27 15:00 ` Peter Todd
2022-10-27 20:29 ` Antoine Riard
2022-10-30 2:24 ` Anthony Towns
2022-10-29 7:45 ` David A. Harding
2022-10-30 1:02 ` Anthony Towns
2022-10-30 2:40 ` Anthony Towns [this message]
2022-10-30 11:06 ` email
2022-10-31 13:02 ` Suhas Daftuar
2022-10-31 16:25 ` Greg Sanders
2022-10-31 17:21 ` email
2022-10-31 17:51 ` Peter Todd
2022-11-04 10:28 ` email
2022-11-02 3:07 ` Anthony Towns
2022-11-02 13:32 ` Greg Sanders
2022-11-02 19:50 ` Antoine Riard
2022-11-05 2:35 ` Peter Todd
[not found] <mailman.38435.1666828344.956.bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
2022-10-27 9:56 ` John Carvalho
2022-10-27 17:21 ` Anthony Towns
2022-10-27 17:35 ` Suhas Daftuar
2022-10-27 17:44 ` Greg Sanders
2022-10-27 19:00 ` Greg Sanders
2022-11-08 9:28 ` AdamISZ
2022-11-10 14:38 ` email
2022-11-03 21:06 email
2022-11-07 14:32 ` Peter Todd
2022-11-07 14:47 ` Erik Aronesty
2022-11-08 14:54 ` email
2022-11-09 12:05 ` email
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