--- Log opened Tue May 11 00:00:51 2021 00:28 -!- midnight [~midnight@unaffiliated/midnightmagic] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 00:28 -!- ghost43 [~daer@gateway/tor-sasl/daer] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 00:28 -!- murch [~murch@gateway/tor-sasl/murch] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 00:29 -!- murch [~murch@gateway/tor-sasl/murch] has joined ##taproot-activation 00:29 -!- ghost43 [~daer@gateway/tor-sasl/daer] has joined ##taproot-activation 00:35 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has quit [Quit: ZNC - http://znc.sourceforge.net] 00:37 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has joined ##taproot-activation 00:46 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has quit [Quit: ZNC - http://znc.sourceforge.net] 00:47 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has joined ##taproot-activation 00:48 -!- mmble [~mmble@144.126.223.139] has joined ##taproot-activation 00:57 -!- yevaud [~yevaud@2001:bc8:1820:118::1] has quit [Quit: ZNC - https://znc.in] 00:59 -!- riclas [riclas@77.7.37.188.rev.vodafone.pt] has joined ##taproot-activation 01:18 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Quit: pox] 01:19 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 01:58 -!- belcher_ is now known as belcher 02:08 -!- midnight [~midnight@unaffiliated/midnightmagic] has joined ##taproot-activation 03:11 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Quit: pox] 03:56 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 05:04 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 05:04 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Quit: pox] 05:30 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 06:02 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has quit [Quit: ZNC - http://znc.sourceforge.net] 06:02 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has joined ##taproot-activation 06:42 -!- RusAlex [~Chel@unaffiliated/rusalex] has quit [Quit: WeeChat 3.0] 07:07 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 07:58 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 08:45 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 08:47 -!- proofofkeags [~proofofke@205.209.28.54] has joined ##taproot-activation 09:09 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 09:17 -!- common [~common@unaffiliated/common] has joined ##taproot-activation 09:19 -!- commmon [~common@unaffiliated/common] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 09:25 -!- commmon [~common@unaffiliated/common] has joined ##taproot-activation 09:29 -!- common [~common@unaffiliated/common] has quit [Ping timeout: 252 seconds] 10:31 -!- RusAlex [~Chel@unaffiliated/rusalex] has joined ##taproot-activation 11:04 -!- catwith1hat [~112212@185.72.66.245] has joined ##taproot-activation 11:09 < catwith1hat> Hi everyone, pardon me if that was discussed here before. Looking at https://taproot.watch/ I noticed that the minimal set of miners to reach 90% contains 11 mining pools. (That's summing up all mining pool shares up to the 11th position). I believe that taproot is pretty neutral for mining revenue. At best, the Bitcoin prices rises, but only if those 11 mining pools cooperate. However, if one of those 11 fail to signal (they can surprise 11:09 < catwith1hat> us with a failure to signal in the last activation period), then the BTC price will be probably take a surprise dump. That can be exploited by taking a leveraged short position in a futures market if you know that's gonna happen. You know that it's gonna happen if you cause it yourself. This whole setup seems to be game theoretically be a distributed prisoners dilemma and we know those don't end well. Has this aspect been discussed before? 11:11 < riclas> i'm pretty sure the same happened when segwit was delayed. so it's a known issue/feature 11:12 < catwith1hat> It seems so. Yes. And the segwit activation threshold was even higher, IIRC. 11:13 < Emcy> no reason not to try cooperation first 11:15 < faketoshi> riclas: I can't see any way in which this is a feature :P 11:16 < faketoshi> Emcy: BIP8 allows for cooperation before timeout 11:16 < faketoshi> but doesn't leave you open to game playing 11:21 < catwith1hat> In https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-February/018498.html , luke-jr was pointing out something like this by mentioning that miners second-guess each other. It feels that this warning would have been more powerful by showing how surprise activation failure could lead to speculative non-mining income for miners. 11:23 < faketoshi> it's a monumentally stupid distortion of the incentives 11:23 < faketoshi> puts miners in a position they should never be in, for everyone's good. 11:35 < jonatack> i'm no trader and don't trade, but if these manoeuvers are anticipated with enough shorts piling in, maybe they could make a tempting target for short stop squeeze hunting by market makers 11:40 < catwith1hat> There will be a stampeding retail trader herd rushing for the exit, and you can't stop that by knowing that it's coming. If you could then you are a massive whale in full control of the market anyway and those mythical creatures don't exist. Also the better strategy is to frontrun the herd and not stop it. But that's a bit off-topic for this channel. 11:41 < catwith1hat> I am more interested in the game theoretical aspects of the cooperation game that taproot activation is. 11:49 < murch> catwith1hat: I think you're both overestimating the amount of users that are following the day-to-day news, and underestimating the amount of coins held by enthusiasts that wouldn't be perturbed by Taproot not activating in the first attempt 11:57 < jonatack> murch: no idea, but i don't disagree, non-dev bitcoiners around me aren't following it closely, if at all 12:35 -!- yevaud [~yevaud@51.15.79.97] has joined ##taproot-activation 12:35 -!- joerodgers [~joerodger@c-76-125-83-191.hsd1.ar.comcast.net] has quit [Ping timeout: 246 seconds] 12:40 -!- joerodgers [~joerodger@193.27.12.24] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:00 -!- common [~common@unaffiliated/common] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:02 -!- commmon [~common@unaffiliated/common] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 13:03 -!- commmon [~common@unaffiliated/common] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:04 -!- _0x0ff- [~potatoe@2001:bc8:47b0:123::1] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:04 -!- _0x0ff [~potatoe@unaffiliated/0x0ff/x-1210984] has quit [Ping timeout: 245 seconds] 13:04 -!- common [~common@unaffiliated/common] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 13:09 -!- Netsplit *.net <-> *.split quits: jakesyl 13:13 -!- Netsplit over, joins: jakesyl 13:16 -!- joerodgers [~joerodger@193.27.12.24] has quit [Ping timeout: 246 seconds] 13:17 -!- robert_spigler [robertspig@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-ffhuimjqrifccnpa] has quit [Ping timeout: 245 seconds] 13:17 -!- dunxen [dunxenx0fo@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-evlqyzwpcpnqgjmh] has quit [Ping timeout: 245 seconds] 13:17 -!- J[m]3 [jlich10mat@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-syucokmooomouzin] has quit [Ping timeout: 248 seconds] 13:17 -!- ksedgwic [ksedgwicma@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-liewlyijcolvaxpc] has quit [Ping timeout: 247 seconds] 13:21 -!- joerodgers [~joerodger@c-76-125-83-191.hsd1.ar.comcast.net] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:32 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 13:41 -!- robert_spigler [robertspig@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-hsipnhrsqvwbheyo] has joined ##taproot-activation 13:49 -!- dunxen [dunxenx0fo@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-paxtispeufzpnfqn] has joined ##taproot-activation 14:02 -!- dunxen [dunxenx0fo@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-paxtispeufzpnfqn] has quit [Ping timeout: 245 seconds] 14:03 -!- robert_spigler [robertspig@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-hsipnhrsqvwbheyo] has quit [Ping timeout: 258 seconds] 14:10 -!- ksedgwic [ksedgwicma@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-pdolxkonzbuodphf] has joined ##taproot-activation 14:13 -!- J[m]3 [jlich10mat@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-ismaszczpfvtdkxt] has joined ##taproot-activation 14:28 -!- dunxen [dunxenx0fo@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-fwflsciarxcaaqpd] has joined ##taproot-activation 14:28 -!- robert_spigler [robertspig@gateway/shell/matrix.org/x-viqzixvzipkwvstl] has joined ##taproot-activation 14:36 -!- CARO1 [~Cesar@2804:7f4:c1a3:9a3e:b5d1:2d71:724b:72a7] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 14:37 -!- CARO1 [~Cesar@2804:7f4:c29d:9cb8:6c57:6b11:5c90:d6c9] has joined ##taproot-activation 15:26 -!- willcl_ark_ [~quassel@unaffiliated/willcl-ark/x-8282106] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 15:28 -!- willcl_ark [~quassel@unaffiliated/willcl-ark/x-8282106] has joined ##taproot-activation 16:51 -!- queip [~queip@unaffiliated/rezurus] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 17:09 -!- queip [~queip@unaffiliated/rezurus] has joined ##taproot-activation 17:16 -!- riclas [riclas@77.7.37.188.rev.vodafone.pt] has quit [Ping timeout: 265 seconds] 17:32 -!- proofofkeags [~proofofke@205.209.28.54] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 17:34 -!- belcher [~belcher@unaffiliated/belcher] has quit [Quit: Leaving] 17:53 -!- belcher [~belcher@unaffiliated/belcher] has joined ##taproot-activation 18:08 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 18:08 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Read error: Connection reset by peer] 18:12 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 18:14 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 18:17 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has quit [Quit: ZNC - http://znc.sourceforge.net] 18:17 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has joined ##taproot-activation 18:24 -!- copumpkin [~copumpkin@unaffiliated/copumpkin] has quit [Quit: Hmmm] 18:33 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 18:45 -!- Jackielove4u [uid43977@gateway/web/irccloud.com/x-daqmgpiqolbibgyl] has quit [Quit: Connection closed for inactivity] 18:57 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has quit [Quit: ZNC - http://znc.sourceforge.net] 18:57 -!- luke-jr [~luke-jr@unaffiliated/luke-jr] has joined ##taproot-activation 19:34 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 20:04 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Remote host closed the connection] 20:04 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 20:12 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 20:17 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Ping timeout: 260 seconds] 20:38 -!- belcher_ [~belcher@unaffiliated/belcher] has joined ##taproot-activation 20:41 -!- belcher [~belcher@unaffiliated/belcher] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] 21:00 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 21:13 -!- mips [~mips@gateway/tor-sasl/mips] has joined ##taproot-activation 21:24 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Ping timeout: 265 seconds] 21:31 < pox> puts miners in a position they should never be in, for everyone's good. <--- this is a great point which I think wasn't stressed enough in the discussion till now. 21:33 < pox> I still don't think pools have been put in a position to cancel the softfork - just given the opportunity to coordinate its timing and optimistically activate quite quickly. 21:35 < pox> worst case we get like 70% of hashpower already upgraded (already the case more or less) and then any flag day activation with a generous enough preparation period should go without a hitch and miners couldn't claim that signaling was putting undue focus on them. they'd have to upgrade just to stay on the longest chain. 22:17 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has quit [Quit: pox] 22:33 -!- pox [~pox@gateway/tor-sasl/pox] has joined ##taproot-activation 22:40 -!- copumpkin [~copumpkin@unaffiliated/copumpkin] has joined ##taproot-activation 23:22 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has joined ##taproot-activation 23:40 -!- Jackielove4u [uid43977@gateway/web/irccloud.com/x-hkyujqcciflbuzjz] has joined ##taproot-activation 23:53 -!- AaronvanW [~AaronvanW@unaffiliated/aaronvanw] has quit [Ping timeout: 240 seconds] --- Log closed Wed May 12 00:00:52 2021