--- Log opened Sun May 27 00:00:22 2012
00:44 < mako> Is there anyone capable of simulating a human and a convincing environment for it, who would have trouble predicting roughly what that human would do anyway?
00:44 < mako> Is such an entity plausible?
00:46 < yashgaroth> by entity do you mean the simulator or the simulatee(?)?
00:48 < yashgaroth> the copout answer is that you could run a separate instance of the simulation and see what happens, but I doubt that's what you mean
00:50 < mako> simulator.
00:51 < mako> Ah that was downright ambiguous wasn't it.
00:52 < yashgaroth> mostly just calvinist
00:55 < mako> Explain calvinism and how it applies to post-organic scenarios.
00:55 < JayDugger> I second mako's comment.
00:56 < yashgaroth> oh, I thought it was some broader philosophical reference to predestination
00:56 < JayDugger> Alright. That makes sense.
00:56 < mako> Predestination, no, who cares about that.
00:57 < JayDugger> You'd have been better off saying "predestination."
00:57 < mako> My concern is that there are certain things we should never reveal about how we work until we're sure we're not in a simulation.
00:57 < JayDugger> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvinism#Five_points_of_Calvinism
00:57 < yashgaroth> ehh, calvinism's only famous for that really, but you're right
00:57 < mako> Or.. Well, a particular kind of simulation.
00:57 < JayDugger> You might have meant total depravity, for all I knew.
00:58 < yashgaroth> what sort of things, and to whom would we reveal them?
00:58 < JayDugger> Only famous for that? Not when my sister has a theology degree, it isn't.
00:58 < yashgaroth> heh
00:58 < JayDugger> Anyhow, $0.02 for the off-topic jar.
00:59 < yashgaroth> kanz doesn't appear to be awake so let's indulge in some philosophy
01:00 < JayDugger> <Kicks rock> I refute it thus.
01:03 < mako> Say some post-organic alien wanted to know if, given the chance, a human-derivative being would trash undisturbed life-supporting planets. Now, if they exist, they must have decided they don't want anyone doing that or we'd be trashed by now. If we revealed in a simulation that given the slack, we would violate their rules, it would be in their best interest to thwart our attempts to ascent before we can even understand why they're doin
01:03 < mako> g it.
01:03 < JayDugger> And?
01:04 < mako> We probably have ways of determining whether we've passed the point of simulatability.
01:05 < yashgaroth> those aliens are probably too crippled by the question of whether they themselves are living in a simulation to worry about us
01:05 < JayDugger> Do you lie awake at night worrying that you actually exist as a brain in a vat?
01:06 < mako> I laugh.
01:06 < mako> I laugh when these things occur to me.
01:08 < mako> I'm proposing that if we were heinous treaty-breakers, we should hold off on revealing it externally till we know for sure that any galaxy in which our essential nature would be a relevant, simulation-worthy matter, would not be able to simulate us.
01:08 < JayDugger> And how do you propose to enforce that?
01:09 < mako> Just by telling people this. I expect a lot of intelligence from those powerful enough to matter.
01:09 < mako> Of course the question is moot, because we are a benevolent species that would never break any treaties#
01:09 < mako> *wonk*
01:09 < JayDugger> And powerful intelligent people will inevitably and indefinitely act in their own long-term best interest?
01:10 < mako> They don't have indefinate simulation power.
01:10 < mako> If they did, we wouldn't be worth getting concerned about.
01:11 < mako> Hm..
01:11 < yashgaroth> and how do we definitively determine how much simulation power they have
01:11 < mako> Consider all universes in which our nature would be a worthwhile matter. If none of these universes could simulate us, we can break as many treaties as we like.
01:12 < mako> I think I've hit a wall.
01:12 < JayDugger> Perhaps.
01:12 < mako> This just got too convoluted.
01:13 < yashgaroth> so can I safely break treaties if I'm wearing a foil hat? cuz I'm meeting with russia next week and I plan to fuck them over
01:14 < mako> There are, of course, other factors that come into play when it comes to shitting in the pool.
01:15 < mako> But if russia could be were simulating you now, I'd say you're already fucked, because if this conversation wasn't in their simulation, simulation you would have already acted out, and you're about to walk straight into their reaction to that.
01:16 < yashgaroth> ah but I already simulated their reaction, and
01:17 < mako> If I could simulate 300 russians and their approximate environment, I'd just simulate myself at 2000x instead.
01:18 < mako> 2000:300, that doesn't make sense, I apologize.
01:20 < yashgaroth> I try not to simulate myself too often, it dulls the mind
01:21 < mako> Depends where one places ones'self.
01:24 < yashgaroth> have you considered taking the discussion to lesswrong? I'm sure it'd be right up their alley, what with all the, ahem, self-simulation that goes on there
01:25 < mako> I'm still not sure it's worth thinking about.
01:26 < mako> Or rather, I suspect I might be able to prove that it's not worth thinking about.
01:26 < yashgaroth> that's true of most philosophy, I find
01:27 < mako> Yeah..
01:28 < yashgaroth> whether or not the universe is a simulation is irrelevant; even if you can somehow prove it isn't, that doesn't give it any greater meaning
01:29 < mako> Well no, if we can guess the nature of our simulators, that could be instructive on what we should try to do for a slim chance of escaping.
01:30 < mako> But I'd say it's overwhelmingly likely we can't. Ever.
01:30 < yashgaroth> I'll hold off on trying to guess until we're capable of simulating a universe ourselves
01:34 < yashgaroth> and on that note, I shall adjourn for the night
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01:54 < mako> Concern that our behavior at a gestational stage, such as the one we're in now, would not predict our behavior at a dangerous stage. In that case it's not worth thinking about.
01:56 < mako> Concern that the only thing worth thinking about is the acquisition of thinking enhancement tools.
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07:15 < kanzure> mako: if you are interested in behavior optimization for a simulated universe, let me introduce you to my cult
07:16 < kanzure> i wonder if i should redeploy those old websites.. it's a shame that they aren't immediately obviously a mockery of cults
07:38 < strangewarp> Simulation is worth thinking about; in terms of ancestor-simulation and Big Universe resimulation, it may be likely. But because of the mechanics of those two possibilities, it's useless to worry about it.
07:40 < strangewarp> Now, distributed brute-force resimulation in a Big Universe system may make cryonics irrelevant; but cryonics would still be useful to propagate versions of you in contexts you are more likely to care about. So /shrug
07:41 < chris_99> have you read Nick Bostrom's articles on simulation
07:42 < chris_99> i thought they were pretty interesting
07:42 < Urchin> big universe resimulation is a bit of a shot in the dark imo
07:42 < Urchin> who knows what kind of life forms you're going to end up with
07:42 < strangewarp> Urchin: That's why I give it the caveats, yeah
07:42 < strangewarp> chris_99: I ought to read them again; I may have glazed over parts of them
07:43 < Urchin> also, using it for imortality purposes doesn't make sense in the least
07:44 < strangewarp> Urchin: In Big Universe, you'd end up with every physically possible set of lifeforms that can come to exist under rational topology
07:44 < strangewarp> Relying on it for immortality purposes is a bit dodgy until it's definitively proven or disproven though, yes
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08:16 < strangewarp> Definitely serves as succour for us H+ intellectuals without cryonics or capital, though
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08:23 < kanzure> strangewarp: why don't you have capital?
08:24 < kanzure> sounds like a silly thing to optimize for
08:31 < kanzure> dose anyone have a plug-and-play symbolic regression package, possibly for R or python?
08:34 < kanzure> i'm considering https://github.com/natekupp/ffx
08:36 < ParahSailin> scipy stats
08:37 < kanzure> ParahSailin: i'm not aware of any symbolic regressors in scipy
08:39 < ParahSailin> what was that famous symbolic regression one
08:40 < ParahSailin> eureqa
08:41 < strangewarp> kanzure: Mostly because of dumb mistakes and emotional silliness that happened when I was younger. But with any luck I'll be more successful now.
08:42 < kanzure> ParahSailin: yeah, i know about eureqa :) i'll try that when ffx fails and/or annoys me too much
08:42 < ParahSailin> what you regressin?
08:42 < kanzure> strangewarp: i wasn't trying to imply that capital==success, mind you
08:42 < strangewarp> hmm, noted
08:43 < kanzure> ParahSailin: nothing important; it's actually something i should be able to figure out on my own, but i have about ~300 test cases and not much progress
08:43 < kanzure> ParahSailin: i'm trying to extract an equation from eight variables in each of these 300 test cases
08:43 < kanzure> erm, i mean, a formula that will work in each of these 300 cases, using these eight variables
08:44 < kanzure> unfortunately there might be two formulas across this dataset (half the samples might be governed by a separate algorithm) but i'm not sure how to deal with this eventuality
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09:16 < ParahSailin> whats the data set
09:18 < kanzure> ParahSailin: pokemons
09:18 < kanzure> also: it looks like this ffx library was written by an electronic design automation company. neat.
09:19 < ParahSailin> there are only 300 pokemen?
09:20 < kanzure> ParahSailin: no, there's this part of the ROM that i'm disassembling for their weird map drawing algorithm.. they have "infinite maps" because maps connect to each other, and these map connections have some properties like a window and a 'connection strip pointer' that is- presumably- calculated from variables of the two maps involved
09:20 < kanzure> ParahSailin: see the diagram near the end here http://ximwix.net/mirrors/rhdn/index.php@topic=6427.0.html#msg102329
09:22 < kanzure> haha.. -17.8 + 0.224*connected_map_width * connected_map_height + 0.223*yoffset * connected_map_width + 0.194*connected_map_height * strip_length + 0.0380*yoffset * strip_length
09:22 < kanzure> well this can't be right
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09:42 < kanzure> geeze maybe i'm using it wrong. it can't even figure out "x+y+z".
09:43 < ParahSailin> heh
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09:56 < kanzure> ParahSailin: eureqa found it immediately (at least, the x+y+z case)
09:56 < kanzure> neuro-sys: hi.
09:57 < neuro-sys> hi kanzure
10:18 < ParahSailin> sometimes the famous package is famous because it works pretty well
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12:43 < kanzure> damn, and here i was really hoping to talk with "mangoat12"
12:43 < kanzure> well, sort of.
12:43 < kanzure> oh it's Guest88746.
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13:36 < kanzure> "processes for "Turning silicon into machine-readable form". Nohl actually has an open source package to help do it."
13:36 < kanzure> "Go read Tarnovsky's blog, where he has blogged about extracting keys from silicon"
13:36 < kanzure> hrmm.
13:36 < kanzure> http://www.flylogic.net/blog/?p=25
13:36 < kanzure> i don't think that's it. any ideas?
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--- Log closed Mon May 28 00:00:23 2012