| --- Log opened Tue Dec 22 00:00:43 2015 | ||
| superkuh | Heh. Interesting. I feel the same way about people who have had children. | 00:11 |
|---|---|---|
| maaku | Eh.. maybe my point didn't get across. Two points actually: | 00:15 |
| maaku | (1) A part of transhumanism deals with either creating minds (AI) or hive minds, or otherwise enabling or constraining the capabilities of future intelligences, often with concern for desireable outcomes. | 00:17 |
| maaku | There is a segment of the population who already has experience creating new minds and guiding towards desirable outcomes: parents. Non-parents talking about things like friendlyness in AI or hive minds or whatever is a bit like virgins talking about sex. | 00:18 |
| superkuh | I'm not sure I believe the premise that there'll be an equivalence between strong AI and children. People who have children are compromised in the sense that they'll do almost anything, even irrational things, to do what they perceive as protecting them. | 00:20 |
| maaku | (2) Having the responsibility for caring for and guiding development another human life changes your ethics and priorities. You become a different person with different priorities after bonding with a child you are responsible for.. | 00:20 |
| pompolic | what if (2) is bad | 00:20 |
| superkuh | Yes, exactly #2. They become compromised. | 00:20 |
| pompolic | sounds like you're just switching to a different set of biases | 00:21 |
| pompolic | actually disregard that last sentence; that's insufficient justification | 00:21 |
| maaku | Exactly. I am a parent, btw, so I'm suspect of the judgement of those who are not. | 00:21 |
| maaku | not different biases, different base values | 00:22 |
| maaku | superkuh: the flip side is that a parent would take seriously protective measures to prevent their kids from becoming AI-food | 00:24 |
| maaku | and not take risks a nihilist might | 00:24 |
| maaku | So yeah, if someone tells me they are "childfree" and just got their tubes tied, yes I'll second-guess their ability to effectively and safely reason about exitential risks | 00:26 |
| maaku | They've got no skin in the game. | 00:26 |
| pompolic | what if they want to live forever | 00:26 |
| maaku | pompolic: what's that a response to? | 00:27 |
| pompolic | counterargument to having no skin in the game | 00:27 |
| maaku | pompolic: ah but it is human nature to have a higher threshold for risk taking when it's just yourself on th eline | 00:28 |
| superkuh | And for parents to hold back progress in order to create stability for their offspring. | 00:29 |
| pompolic | seems like you want parents if you want to make type 1 errors and nihilists if you want to make type 2 errors | 00:30 |
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| fenn | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proactionary_principle | 01:07 |
| maaku | fenn: ? | 01:16 |
| Diablo-D3 | and what if we dont want to make mistakes at all? | 01:22 |
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| Diablo-D3 | http://zerocarbzen.com/2015/12/21/zero-carb-interview-matt-shepherd/ | 01:23 |
| pompolic | Diablo-D3: precisely. i was being flippant | 01:25 |
| Diablo-D3 | http://www.biochemsoctrans.org/content/28/6/883.long | 01:32 |
| Diablo-D3 | http://www.biochemsoctrans.org/content/ppbiost/28/6/883.full.pdf | 01:34 |
| Diablo-D3 | actually there, the full pdf | 01:34 |
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| pasky | maaku: there's plenty of people who are pretty bad parents and don't care much for their kids, and there's plenty of people who care deeply about this world or other people in it even if they don't have children; and I actually suspect the proportions are so large that parenthood carries little information in the end | 04:26 |
| maaku | pasky: I doubt that. But what can I say? "If you were a parent you'd understand." Not helpful so I'll stop engaging. | 04:27 |
| pasky | fair enough :) | 04:29 |
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| kanzure | "Bitcoin's mining difficulty has increased by 41.9% over the last 30 days" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10774204 | 05:55 |
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| gnusha_ | https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=96844c4b Bryan Bishop: fix sipa's name >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/gmaxwell-sidechains-elements/ | 07:20 |
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| AdrianG | kanzure: is it even possible for a nation state to 51% attack? | 08:35 |
| kanzure | selfish mining showed how you don't even need 51%, you need ~33% ish | 08:39 |
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| AdrianG | well. | 09:10 |
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| AdrianG | we could be being attacked with 33% right now then. there is an "unknown" pool of 18% | 09:11 |
| maaku | bitfury is brining online a data center with hashing capability equal to the entire bitcoin network as of a few weeks ago | 09:15 |
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| xrr | I would think it is at least easy to recognize the attack. Top of the current chain gets replaced | 09:21 |
| kanzure | that's not so easy to recognize; that's normal bitcoin blockchain behavior. although lots of reorgs are less normal. but there probably wouldn't be that many reorgs even in an attack scenario like this. | 09:27 |
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| kanzure | .title https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10777505 | 09:33 |
| yoleaux | Camera Zapping: Using Lasers to Temporarily Neutralize Cameras | Hacker News | 09:33 |
| xrr | Hmm, wouldn't time make a difference though? Normal differences would sync up quickly, wouldn't grow beyond a block or two, while a double spender would bury a transaction with some ten blocks to get a purchase confirmed and then remove the transaction. No? | 09:39 |
| maaku | xrr: there are many more attacks than that | 09:50 |
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| AdrianG | archels: degrees of consciousness? like coma scales? | 10:04 |
| archels | yeah, exactly that | 10:11 |
| archels | .wik Glasgow coma scale | 10:11 |
| yoleaux | "The Glasgow Coma Scale or GCS is a neurological scale that aims to give a reliable, objective way of recording the conscious state of a person for initial as well as subsequent assessment." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_coma_scale | 10:11 |
| AdrianG | archels: thats just so you can triage/sort patients | 10:36 |
| AdrianG | it doesnt help to understand conciousness except on a very rudimentary level | 10:37 |
| Diablo-D3 | archels: I wonder where I fall on that | 10:39 |
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| xrr | maaku: I guess an attacker can block any transaction from getting confirmations. That would be more difficult to detect | 10:43 |
| maaku | xrr: right | 10:43 |
| xrr | Also, 51% power can mine 100% of blocks? Fun | 10:43 |
| maaku | yup | 10:43 |
| maaku | but that's detectable | 10:43 |
| maaku | the censorship angle is a larger systematic risk | 10:44 |
| maaku | it explicitly defeats the entire purpose of bitcoin | 10:44 |
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| Aurelius_Work2 | Hmmm | 10:45 |
| Aurelius_Work2 | I wonder if I could get a job working on power BI | 10:45 |
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| gnusha_ | https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=f167c7a3 Bryan Bishop: fix two minor typos >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/hong-kong/bip99-and-uncontroversial-hard-forks/ | 10:47 |
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| archels | AdrianG: it quasi-maps onto fundamental neurological functions | 10:58 |
| archels | as such it is appropriate to the mind uploading field | 10:59 |
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| nmz787_i | sup | 11:55 |
| kanzure | annoyed about lack of results docs uploaded to clinicaltrials.gov | 11:56 |
| kanzure | confused about lendingclub claims | 11:57 |
| nmz787_i | /me imagines lendingclub has something to do with baby seals and rental agreements | 12:03 |
| kanzure | well you're not wrong | 12:06 |
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| AdrianG | kiva default rates sound too good to be true. | 12:22 |
| Diablo-D3 | heh, lending club is hilarious | 12:23 |
| Diablo-D3 | literally, a bunch of dudes were like HEY PROSPER SOUNDS AWESOME, LETS COPY IT | 12:23 |
| Diablo-D3 | and bam they legitimized prosper by cloning it | 12:23 |
| AdrianG | what tells you its a clone? | 12:25 |
| AdrianG | their scoring/risk management could be entirely different. | 12:25 |
| Diablo-D3 | AdrianG: a company that crowd sources their loan funding | 12:26 |
| Diablo-D3 | AdrianG: and they both use essentially the same risk management | 12:27 |
| Diablo-D3 | both company with federal laws on loan origination | 12:27 |
| AdrianG | Diablo-D3: how do you know about the second part? | 12:27 |
| Diablo-D3 | because? | 12:27 |
| AdrianG | risk management isnt entirely transparent. | 12:27 |
| Diablo-D3 | federal law on loans is a gigantic fucking tome | 12:27 |
| Diablo-D3 | that no one understands but a special breed of lawyer | 12:28 |
| Diablo-D3 | both of them have to meet the minimum of the law, and that minimum is very very very fucking high | 12:28 |
| Diablo-D3 | both are lower than if a bank was playing with its own money | 12:28 |
| Diablo-D3 | but its still pretty fucking up there | 12:28 |
| AdrianG | i have a hunch. there is probably a direct correlation - the thicker the tome, the more profitable is the economic area being regulated. | 12:29 |
| Diablo-D3 | yup | 12:29 |
| Diablo-D3 | and subcorralary to that | 12:29 |
| Diablo-D3 | the thicker the tome, the more congressional fuckery going on | 12:29 |
| Diablo-D3 | but that doesnt mean we shouldnt regulate the almighty fuck out of them | 12:30 |
| Diablo-D3 | I mean, look at what one tiny change caused, the whole glass steagal fuckup | 12:30 |
| Diablo-D3 | major banks completely fucked themselves and caused the US equivalent to the lost decade | 12:30 |
| Diablo-D3 | Im all for major corporations being profitable, but they actually have to _be_ profitable | 12:31 |
| Diablo-D3 | temporally local profits at the cost of total profits is not a winning strategy | 12:31 |
| Alcyius | maaku, while I can somehow see what you're going at, even people who aren't parents can still tell when someone is being a bad parent. Their thoughts on the matter can't be entirely discarded | 12:33 |
| AdrianG | major banks completely fucked up everyone else, and then took their money via treasury too | 12:33 |
| AdrianG | small correction ^ | 12:33 |
| Alcyius | Though, there is always a failsafe | 12:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | AdrianG: well no, they fucked themselves | 12:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | lets say they did it for personal profit | 12:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | which they did | 12:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | plus or minus | 12:33 |
| Alcyius | For instance, create something the AI enjoys more than the real world, and withold it unless the AI performs to our ethical standards | 12:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | their wealth is now at a total negative of real value | 12:34 |
| Diablo-D3 | because the dollar is devalued | 12:34 |
| Diablo-D3 | so the difference between the rich and the poor is greater, ergo they are "richer" | 12:34 |
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| Diablo-D3 | but the actual purchasing power of their wealth is now lesser than it was | 12:34 |
| Diablo-D3 | theft of money on such a large scale is largely a lose-lose situation | 12:34 |
| nmz787_i | deep UV LEDs are still around $200 a piece (in the mid 200nm range) | 12:36 |
| nmz787_i | not terrible for a high-cost instrument... but still killer for low-cost DNA analysis | 12:36 |
| AdrianG | nmz787_i: what power? | 12:36 |
| kanzure | convince me that any of this is high-signal | 12:37 |
| Diablo-D3 | nmz787_i: define deep | 12:38 |
| Diablo-D3 | oh wait you did | 12:38 |
| Diablo-D3 | sorry, my brain is fucked up today | 12:38 |
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| Alcyius | My MRI got insurance approval | 12:46 |
| Alcyius | Finally | 12:46 |
| gnusha_ | https://secure.diyhpl.us/cgit/diyhpluswiki/commit/?id=94355d2e Bryan Bishop: even more segwit video >> http://diyhpl.us/diyhpluswiki/transcripts/scalingbitcoin/hong-kong/segregated-witness-and-its-impact-on-scalability/ | 12:48 |
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| nmz787_i | AdrianG: the last prices I got were for 5 mA or so | 12:50 |
| nmz787_i | so if you wanted to do a 260nm to 280nm absorbance ratio (which is the standard 'pretty good' routine analysis) you'd need two LEDs, so $400 plus few dollars for a photodiode and arduino clone or whatever, maybe a battery holder and a housing | 12:51 |
| nmz787_i | $500 for a fake nanodrop is still pretty reasonable | 12:52 |
| nmz787_i | but a real nanodrop can do a whole spectrum, not just the two wavelengths | 12:52 |
| kanzure | http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s---SBN_lgf--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1462685970574979110.jpg | 12:54 |
| Diablo-D3 | kanzure: thats no zaku boy, no zaku! | 12:55 |
| kanzure | go away | 12:56 |
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| nmz787_i | kanzure: is that a real thing from the new movie? | 13:03 |
| nmz787_i | by thing I mean droid | 13:03 |
| kanzure | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSSTdD5WwAEzy2G.jpg | 13:04 |
| AdrianG | nmz787_i: whats the cheapest FTIR setup ? | 13:04 |
| Diablo-D3 | nmz787_i: no, someone put artoo's head on a zaku. | 13:05 |
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| nmz787_i | AdrianG: not sure, the FTIR I have was $50... but it is unsable as-is... though it appears the electronics I did get are fine, I think I just don't have the control unit for it | 13:29 |
| nmz787_i | AdrianG: if you're talking DIY... they basically consist of a photodiode, a voice coil, a nice stable laser (HeNe gas is preferred, though maybe some solidstate are good enough today) and interferometer and or beam combiners, some mirrors, some salt windows... and the IR source (a hot glowing filament of wire) | 13:31 |
| nmz787_i | so you could probably rig one up for $500-1000 not including all the leg work | 13:31 |
| nmz787_i | the salt windows might be the hardest to find, or DIY... the mirrors also need to be high quality, parabolic or curved, and gold coated I think | 13:32 |
| nmz787_i | and driving the voice coil probably needs to be pretty precise, or at least very repeatable | 13:32 |
| nmz787_i | (since that changes the path length, and creates harmonics) | 13:33 |
| Diablo-D3 | woah, people build their own spectrometers? | 13:33 |
| nmz787_i | Diablo-D3: yes, here is one project of mine for UV VIS https://hackaday.io/project/1342-open-spectrometer | 13:33 |
| nmz787_i | there is another person on hackaday.io that was working on raman | 13:33 |
| nmz787_i | (which I was aiming to produce a detector of sufficiently low noise to enable) | 13:34 |
| nmz787_i | (though we had no collaboration other than a few comments back and forth on their project page) | 13:34 |
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| AdrianG | nmz787_i: you bought ftir for 50 bucks? | 13:48 |
| nmz787_i | yeah like 4 years ago from a recycler... mainly just to rip it apart... but when you power it on, the laser fires right up and the voice coil starts its reciprocating dance | 13:55 |
| nmz787_i | I was moving books from my garage to my office/electronics-lab this past weekend, and knocked into the FTIR which was under a tarp... didn't realize til the next day that I had a gash on my shin where i knocked into the device | 13:56 |
| nmz787_i | heavy ass beast | 13:56 |
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| kanzure | to mitigate "technical" risk in a venture capital funded project, why isn't the trend to give up more equity for the funding? probably there's a floor or ceiling for how much risk you can buy by that method, hm. | 13:59 |
| nmz787_i | equity in something that fails doesn't yield value, so maybe in terms of risk no amount of equity makes things better | 14:00 |
| kanzure | there is value in equity in failed ventures- usually at least liquidation preferences regarding the physical assets and other stuff.... | 14:00 |
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| kanzure | "Can financial engineering cure cancer?" http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/CanFECureCancer2013.pdf | 15:31 |
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| xentrac | there was a girl a few years back who built a raman spectrometer for her high school science fair, nmz787_i | 15:33 |
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| kanzure | "Commercializing biomedical research through securitization techniques" http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf | 15:34 |
| xentrac | nmz787_i: interesting the choice of the Propeller to get deterministic timing easily | 15:34 |
| xentrac | I also didn't know about hackaday.io. thanks! | 15:36 |
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| xentrac | how much did the TCD1304AP cost? digi-key doesn't list it | 15:38 |
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| xentrac | heh, "With increased CAD and computational ability, optical design has been able to take the mirrors and the grating and merge them into one optical element." that one optical element sounds challenging to fabricate? | 15:41 |
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| Diablo-D3 | Sounds like they're just 3D printing the object at least partially using computer aided problem solving | 15:42 |
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| xentrac | Diablo-D3: we are not in the Diamond Age and therefore you cannot "3D print" optics | 15:44 |
| xentrac | yet | 15:44 |
| Diablo-D3 | I dunno | 15:45 |
| Diablo-D3 | you might actually be able to | 15:45 |
| xentrac | essentially all of the instrument-grade diffraction gratings in the world come from the Grating Lab, which cuts masters in glass with three grating engines, one built by the hands of Michelson himself | 15:45 |
| Diablo-D3 | ahh, theres that | 15:45 |
| Diablo-D3 | that sounds like that entire industry is... | 15:45 |
| xentrac | someday, yes; today, no | 15:45 |
| * Diablo-D3 puts on sunglasses | 15:45 | |
| xentrac | your humor is not adding to the signal level in this channel and is likely to result in you being banned | 15:46 |
| kanzure | correct | 15:46 |
| Diablo-D3 | fine =/ | 15:46 |
| Diablo-D3 | I couldn't think of a good pun anyways | 15:47 |
| xentrac | the actual gratings that are distributed are molded from the glass masters through several intermediate stages | 15:47 |
| xentrac | the process is very demanding because it must preserve the surface detail of the grating down to a small fraction of the wavelength of light | 15:47 |
| Diablo-D3 | xentrac: okay so.... | 15:48 |
| Diablo-D3 | its basically integrated circuit manufacturing | 15:48 |
| xentrac | the necessary capabilities have a lot in common with IC manufacturing, but the process is completely different | 15:48 |
| Diablo-D3 | well, I was thinking along the lines of how features are now measured in low single digit nanometers | 15:49 |
| Diablo-D3 | and UV lithography is basically boned because features are now smaller than the wavelength of the UV light they're using | 15:51 |
| kanzure | xentrac: let me know when i should ban him. | 15:51 |
| xentrac | kanzure: I was trying to prevent him from being banned by giving him an extra warning so he could correct himself | 15:53 |
| Diablo-D3 | ? | 15:53 |
| Diablo-D3 | So you're going to ban me for talking about nano-scale fabrication techniques? | 15:55 |
| Diablo-D3 | Especially since, apparently, they use/will be using EULV lithography for diffraction grating manufacturing? | 15:56 |
| xentrac | now that sounds interesting | 15:56 |
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| xentrac | I haven't heard of it though | 15:57 |
| xentrac | link? | 15:57 |
| Diablo-D3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanolithography | 15:58 |
| Diablo-D3 | surprisingly there | 15:58 |
| Diablo-D3 | it doesn't have a ref though, so meh | 15:58 |
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| Diablo-D3 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron-beam_lithography | 16:01 |
| Diablo-D3 | now that is pretty interesting | 16:01 |
| Diablo-D3 | xentrac: so those diffraction grates you're interested in are for IR? | 16:04 |
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| Diablo-D3 | why is that the only company that produces them? | 16:05 |
| Diablo-D3 | it looks like something they could repurpose old semiconductor equipment for, doesn't it? | 16:06 |
| xentrac | Diablo-D3: the relevant criteria are "bandwidth" and "signal-to-noise ratio". we all probably already know that UV lithography is running into problems due to wavelength, for example, and that the current process node is 14nm (not yet low-single-digit nanometers) | 16:06 |
| xentrac | so saying those things is not super endearing :) | 16:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | Okay? Normally its considered rude to start talking about such things without context. | 16:09 |
| xentrac | Richardson Gratings (the current owner of the Grating Lab) is the only company that produces research-grade gratings because reproducing more gratings from the master is very cheap, but making the master is very difficult | 16:09 |
| xentrac | oh, I'm answering this: 23:55 < Diablo-D3> So you're going to ban me for talking about nano-scale fabrication techniques? | 16:09 |
| kanzure | those megafunds would probably have better results by just buying the fda itself, or influencing the political process to make drug approval cheaper overall. once you accumulate $30 billion, a bunch of options open up. | 16:10 |
| Diablo-D3 | Yes, and threatening to ban people for trying to understand the problem by comparing it to other problems also isn't good for the snr. | 16:10 |
| kanzure | although getting new laws passed costs way less than $30 billion | 16:10 |
| xentrac | there is a company doing specialty gratings with a scanning-beam process: http://www.plymouthgrating.com/Products/Products%20Page.htm | 16:11 |
| xentrac | but I still want to know how nmz787 is planning to produce the optics for their spectrophotometer, because if they have a better way, that's super awesome | 16:11 |
| xentrac | I mean, it suggests that there are important manufacturing capabilities that I don't know about, which is a really important thing for me to find out about :) | 16:12 |
| xentrac | the PGL results I linked above are fairly crude by some measures compared to the blazing achieved by Richardson | 16:14 |
| Diablo-D3 | xentrac: well, Im pretty sure nmz787 can't do IR plates in his basement and/or garage... so yeah, I'm wondering too | 16:16 |
| xentrac | you might be surprised at what nmz787 can do in his basement ;) | 16:18 |
| Alcyius | *sigh* | 16:18 |
| Alcyius | Why | 16:18 |
| xentrac | this is the nearest semiconductor manufacturing process to the process used for gratings: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanoimprint_lithography | 16:21 |
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| kanzure | megafund proposal relies on an awfully large amount of intellectual property law ("research-backed obligations"). | 16:38 |
| xentrac | it would probably work better to start a research cult | 16:40 |
| xentrac | only problem is that it would be banned in China | 16:40 |
| kanzure | xentrac: http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf this one | 16:40 |
| kanzure | i am not particularly impressed by existing answers to high-risk project financing... "high-risk" is sorta handwavy too; was the laser "high risk"? | 16:41 |
| xentrac | right | 16:41 |
| xentrac | how big is Harvard's endowment? | 16:42 |
| kanzure | 36 billion | 16:43 |
| xentrac | so basically they're proposing a university funded by its tech transfer office? | 16:44 |
| xentrac | or does Harvard not issue bonds? | 16:44 |
| nmz787_i | xentrac: TCD1304 series are about $10, easily had on aliexpress and ebay... I think there is some licensing thing that prevents their sale on digikey or something, I'm not too sure... I once heard they might have been discontinued and all sales were of old-stock... but that was years ago and hard to believe since they're still just as easily available (and also there is no replacement/substitute product) | 16:44 |
| nmz787_i | xentrac: 3D printed optics has been demonstrated... not great, but OK | 16:45 |
| xentrac | nmz787_i: really? including gratings? | 16:45 |
| xentrac | $10 is pretty amazing. we are living in the future | 16:46 |
| kanzure | xentrac: they are proposing a megafund structure where the bonds have a high chance of high yield by funding ~150 pre-clinical-trial products. | 16:46 |
| xentrac | yes, so I see | 16:47 |
| xentrac | although "high chance of high yield" is almost a contradiction ;) | 16:47 |
| kanzure | well, i mean, high chance of 10-12% yield | 16:47 |
| nmz787_i | xentrac: http://hackaday.com/2014/12/13/3d-printed-lenses-open-up-possibilities/ | 16:48 |
| nmz787_i | I think that is the one I was thinking of | 16:48 |
| nmz787_i | also e-beam lithography is old news | 16:48 |
| nmz787_i | as is ion beam litho | 16:48 |
| xentrac | well, it still might turn out to be useful | 16:48 |
| kanzure | even if harvard endowment fund did issue regular bonds or something, not sure how to answer your question | 16:49 |
| xentrac | "all lenses require some form of polishing to become optically clear. It was printed with a 50 micron resolution" | 16:49 |
| nmz787_i | and while many gratings come out of Richardson (now absorbed by.... Edmund optics I think) there are other (read non-US) suppliers/manufacturers | 16:49 |
| xentrac | so that's about three orders of magnitude too coarse to print a grating with | 16:49 |
| nmz787_i | right, that's why the post is title "lenses" | 16:49 |
| nmz787_i | not gratings ;) | 16:49 |
| xentrac | (or nine orders if you're counting voxels) | 16:49 |
| nmz787_i | but gratings have been made DIY too | 16:49 |
| xentrac | yeah, but I don't think the other suppliers have a significant fraction of the research market, do they? even overseas | 16:50 |
| xentrac | indeed | 16:50 |
| nmz787_i | http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/optics/photolithography/High%20resolution,%20low%20cost%20laser%20lithography%20using%20a%20Blu-ray%20optical%20head%20assembly.pdf | 16:50 |
| xentrac | I mean, one of the three ruling engines in the Grating Lab was a Do It Yourself by Michelson in 1910 | 16:50 |
| nmz787_i | that isn't really sub-micron... but gratings nonetheless | 16:50 |
| xentrac | 450nm feature size could work if you were only doing infra4red | 16:51 |
| xentrac | but for infrared spectroscopy everyone does FTIR anyway | 16:51 |
| nmz787_i | xentrac: well gratings/grisms etc are far from consumer items... so the market isn't very transparent or open | 16:51 |
| kanzure | xentrac: i would say one of the differences is that harvard isn't chasing yield | 16:51 |
| kanzure | and harvard isn't chasing commercialization | 16:52 |
| xentrac | kanzure: I am sure that Harvard's administrators are quite enthusiastic about maximizing the future size of their endowment | 16:52 |
| xentrac | but the bonds are a big difference | 16:53 |
| kanzure | the administrators might be, but as an institution they are not studiously applying their knowledge towards optimizing themselves as a technology development and infrastructure deployment superleague. | 16:53 |
| kanzure | why big difference? | 16:53 |
| xentrac | also, Harvard is more careful about its survival than the yield | 16:53 |
| kanzure | if their endowment is 36 billion then they probably only have a few billion/year to play with | 16:54 |
| xentrac | because if you can actually get pension funds to accept 3% yields on your research-backed bonds, you can bring to bear enormous amounts of money on the problem | 16:55 |
| xentrac | whatever the problem is | 16:55 |
| xentrac | and that's why Elon Musk owns the majority of the rooftop solar panels in California | 16:55 |
| kanzure | these papers are looking at 10-12% returns | 16:55 |
| kanzure | over 10-15 year period | 16:55 |
| kanzure | (for $30 billion-ish. does not seem to be accessible for lower amounts of capital) | 16:56 |
| Diablo-D3 | Okay, so, what exactly are you doing with these? | 16:56 |
| xentrac | yeah, I know they're proposing higher returns | 16:56 |
| Diablo-D3 | the FTIR spectrometers | 16:56 |
| xentrac | but you aren't going to get pension funds to invest in bonds at 10% | 16:56 |
| kanzure | xentrac: whynot? | 16:56 |
| Diablo-D3 | uh, what bond is going to be 100% failproof and pay 10%? | 16:57 |
| xentrac | yields and risks are inversely related | 16:57 |
| Diablo-D3 | exactly | 16:57 |
| kanzure | have you read the paper? | 16:57 |
| xentrac | I haven't finished it yet | 16:57 |
| kanzure | they are aiming for a default probability of 0.4% | 16:58 |
| Diablo-D3 | this is why most funds like this just invest in government bonds, most of them federal | 16:58 |
| xentrac | but the general idea is that if your bonds are really low-risk, you won't have to pay 10% to get people to buy them | 16:58 |
| xentrac | and if you are paying 10% to get people to buy them, then they will conclude that they aren't really low-risk | 16:58 |
| Diablo-D3 | if the US government defaults, well, we have muuuuch larger problems to deal with than a couple kids going to college | 16:58 |
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| kanzure | "This default probability is comparable to the historical realized 10-year default rates of the highest-rated category of debt (Aaa) from 1920 to 2010, according to the bond-rating agency Moody’s | 16:58 |
| kanzure | [25]." | 16:58 |
| xentrac | and if they are wrong about that risk, then someone else will do the same thing and make a lot more money by paying 3% on similar bonds | 16:59 |
| Diablo-D3 | btw, why is the fund trying to manage that risk itself? | 16:59 |
| Diablo-D3 | isn't that a waste of the fund's time and money? | 16:59 |
| xentrac | Diablo-D3: I am reading http://lfe.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/nbt2012.pdf | 17:01 |
| xentrac | the first five or so pages are about that | 17:01 |
| Diablo-D3 | So this is about, what, forming a fund that just uses low risk investments to fund research? | 17:02 |
| Diablo-D3 | Oh wait, no | 17:02 |
| Diablo-D3 | Its about making a portfolio of projects to reduce risk | 17:02 |
| Diablo-D3 | That is more of the silicon valley angel investor shotgun effect than I'd like to see | 17:03 |
| Diablo-D3 | xentrac: I added it to my read list | 17:03 |
| kanzure | well, idea is to see if there is a feasible way of funding large-scale high-risk projects like orbital telescopes, dyson spheres, large-scale cryonics facilities, whole brain emulation work, brain uploading depositories and scanning tech, etc. | 17:04 |
| kanzure | if we are having such significant problems with basic medicine then even highly-likely-to-eventually-be-feasible things like dyson spheres are going to be even more painful to make happen | 17:05 |
| Diablo-D3 | Well, the problem with that is most people are simply not well enough educated to handle such concepts | 17:05 |
| Diablo-D3 | And I'm saying that from personal experience | 17:05 |
| xentrac | kanzure: interestingly this paper mentions MIT raised US$0.75B in 100-year bonds in 2011 | 17:05 |
| kanzure | gah please go the fuck away | 17:05 |
| xentrac | at 5.6% | 17:05 |
| kanzure | Diablo-D3: you are very very low-signal and i would like you to leave | 17:05 |
| Diablo-D3 | What the hell man | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | You can't just say everything you disagree with is low signal | 17:06 |
| kanzure | fuck you for assuming i disagree with any of that shit, wtf | 17:06 |
| kanzure | no i want you to leave because you are low-signal, not because i fucking disagre3e | 17:06 |
| Diablo-D3 | Okay, so, how are you going to convince investors to invest into moonshots when reasonably average people won't even buy electric cars | 17:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | That isn't "low signal", that is a relevant problem | 17:07 |
| justanotheruser | what | 17:07 |
| Diablo-D3 | What the paper xentrac linked to seems to more cover "what to do with the money, and how to best protect it against individual project failure" and less about actually getting money to invest into such projects in the first place | 17:08 |
| kanzure | that is not a relevant problem; it's not even a problem. | 17:08 |
| nmz787_i | tbh I didn't understand why xentrac mentioned in the first place that Diablo-D3 was low signal... I mean I thought the joke about '... day' and "puts on sunglasses" was funny and not noisy... if anything it made the subject interesting because it was humourous | 17:09 |
| kanzure | no he has been here for days smelling up the place | 17:09 |
| nmz787_i | Diablo-D3: FTIR is for doing chemical analysis | 17:09 |
| kanzure | xentrac: i wonder why they wanted to do 100 year bonds | 17:10 |
| Diablo-D3 | kanzure: I feel like I know you from somewhere else | 17:10 |
| xentrac | kanzure: this paper's "megafunds" is sounding more and more like a higher-risk version of a research university | 17:10 |
| kanzure | xentrac: but again though, harvard isn't focused on tech development, engineering and deployment. and yet they are a research university. so i don't think the comparison works out? | 17:11 |
| xentrac | well, that isn't all they do, but they do do that | 17:11 |
| Diablo-D3 | Harvard does make money off of some of the things they have funded research into | 17:11 |
| xentrac | I think the bigger issue is that 0.4% risk of failure over 10 years is a 25-year MTBF, which is pretty short for a research university | 17:12 |
| kanzure | Diablo-D3: yes we all know about tech transfer offices. please, please go away. | 17:12 |
| Diablo-D3 | kanzure: look, I'm normally a nice guy, but if you're going to keep doing that, I'm going to put you on ignore | 17:12 |
| kanzure | i don't care if you are nice. i'll ban your ass. | 17:12 |
| xentrac | and of course Harvard gets more funding from its alumni than from its tech transfer office, rigght? | 17:12 |
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| Diablo-D3 | Yes, and continually interrupting the conversation about how you don't like what I'm saying is not really helping the snr is it? | 17:13 |
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| kanzure | xentrac: i have no idea if that's the case or not | 17:14 |
| Jonathan | hah | 17:14 |
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| xentrac | (harvard may not be the best university to look at, but clearly the proposed "megafunds" are more like Harvard or MIT than they are like Antioch College) | 17:16 |
| xentrac | total cash receipts from giving (mostly from alumni I suppose) in 2015 were US$1B: http://finance.harvard.edu/files/fad/files/harvard_financialreport_fy15.pdf?m=1446124347 | 17:17 |
| kanzure | tech transfer office surely pulls more revenue than $1B ? maybe not...... | 17:17 |
| xentrac | I was thinking "surely less" | 17:18 |
| kanzure | other issue is that in hyper-competitive environment of low-risk investment opportunities at many scales and magnitude, high-risk probably never has a chance. government funding doesn't really solve this either. | 17:18 |
| xentrac | but so far I am not finding any mention of their tech transfer revenues in this report at all | 17:19 |
| kanzure | why would you go for surely less ? i mean maybe because harvard, but iirc stanford for example makes a buttload from patents. | 17:19 |
| kanzure | a dirty nasty buttload | 17:19 |
| xentrac | I don't think it's that large of a buttload though | 17:19 |
| xentrac | and Stanford itself is a bit of an outlier there, much as is Harvard on endowment size | 17:19 |
| nmz787_i | Diablo-D3: I agree that kanzure's comments about snr actually degrade it | 17:20 |
| kanzure | well i mean we should be okay with hand-waving about a slightly imaginary university that has similar traits | 17:20 |
| xentrac | sorry for contributing to that, nmz787_i | 17:20 |
| kanzure | page 8 http://www1.hw.ac.uk/kescotland/media/Technology%20Transfer%20at%20Stanford.pdf | 17:20 |
| nmz787_i | but I guess I am not here lately enough to smell 'the stink' as he put it | 17:20 |
| kanzure | "$100 billion dollars in revenue or approximately half of the Silicon Valley revenue is spin-off from Stanford University" | 17:20 |
| xentrac | one thing that may not be captured by these figures is that Stanford (and maybe Harvard) may demand equity in spinoffs, rather than direct payment | 17:21 |
| xentrac | sure, but how much of that value do they capture? | 17:21 |
| kanzure | oh hell | 17:21 |
| kanzure | hm | 17:21 |
| xentrac | Diablo-D3 points out http://www.statnews.com/2015/12/21/harvard-faculty-scientific-research/ which says US$13M annually | 17:22 |
| xentrac | anyway, so the "megafunds" idea is kind of to run a biotech-focused research university entirely off its securitized tech transfer revenues with an MTBF of about 25 years? | 17:23 |
| xentrac | no, what am I saying? | 17:23 |
| xentrac | 0.4% / 10 years is .04% per year, or 2500 years MTBF, which to me sounds like somebody's been hitting the crack pipe | 17:24 |
| xentrac | ain't nobody got a 2500-year-MTBF organization out there. not the Pope, not the Japanese Emperor, nobody. | 17:24 |
| xentrac | but that's okay if we're just talking about 0.4% for the lowest-risk tranche or something? | 17:26 |
| nmz787_i | wait, isnt the catholic church pretty close to 2500 years? | 17:28 |
| nmz787_i | they're the most successful business when viewed in a certain way | 17:29 |
| xentrac | it's close, but do you really think its likely lifespan from today is *another* 2500 years? | 17:29 |
| xentrac | assuming no "institutional wearout", which may be unreasonable | 17:29 |
| xentrac | I mean there were a lot of similar institutions around when it was born, most of which have since been destroyed | 17:30 |
| xentrac | so you have to correct for survivorship bias | 17:30 |
| xentrac | I don't think we can count Saudi Arabia as a survival of the Nestorian church, for example | 17:30 |
| nmz787_i | I can't find the article I was thinking of | 17:31 |
| xentrac | (also, they lost most of their assets a few times, which would have been a problem if they had securitized those assets to investors...) | 17:31 |
| nmz787_i | the article was more of a comparison | 17:32 |
| nmz787_i | talking about steady growth (using membership instead of revenue) | 17:32 |
| nmz787_i | but that basically growth has been consistent for like 2000 years | 17:32 |
| xentrac | I can believe that. and Pope Bergoglio seems like he might correct its recent decades of falling below the trend line | 17:33 |
| xentrac | but what about the Nestorians and the Byzantines? | 17:34 |
| xentrac | or for that matter the Zoroastrians and the Mithraists | 17:34 |
| nmz787_i | you're speaking "foreigner" to me | 17:36 |
| nmz787_i | I suck at history pretty much | 17:36 |
| nmz787_i | I am pretty sure the non-US guy I work with knows more about US presidents than I do | 17:37 |
| cluckj | also jews | 17:38 |
| cluckj | been around for kind of a while | 17:38 |
| cluckj | the catholic church isn't 2500 year MTBF either, they've had a few | 17:41 |
| xentrac | Judaism still exists as a religion, but not a church in the sense of an institution that can hold assets | 17:42 |
| xentrac | this segment about drug-royalty investment companies is really interesting; I didn't know these existed | 17:43 |
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| cluckj | hmm | 17:45 |
| xentrac | it's strange that they think that Royalty Pharma invested US$5.8 billion over 8 years and yet their proposed "megafund" could be viable with much higher-risk assets with only US$35B | 17:45 |
| xentrac | you'd think it would be more like a factor of 10 difference | 17:45 |
| cluckj | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies | 17:47 |
| xentrac | if we take "companies" in general as our reference population, I think the MTBF is about 30 years | 17:48 |
| xentrac | but the hazard function is far from constant, with much higher risk in the first few years | 17:48 |
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| kanzure | what is origin of interest in 2500-year-MTBF or MTBF? | 17:49 |
| xentrac | 0.4% risk of default over 10 years implies MTBF ≥ 2500y | 17:50 |
| cluckj | risk calculations? which are a recent thing | 17:50 |
| xentrac | p.11 | 17:50 |
| kanzure | yea i suppose more generally, diversification is a lousy risk mitigation scheme. ultimately you have to mitigate actual risks through methods other than weird financialization.... like actual study, engineering, hard work, that sort of thing. | 17:53 |
| kanzure | which... uh, requires funding. | 17:53 |
| kanzure | wait i think i'm stuck in an infinite loop | 17:54 |
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| xentrac | a more interesting question is whether diversification might *increase* risk | 17:56 |
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| xentrac | I mean essentially the researchers at the "megafund" would be employees of a largish company (thousands of employees) | 17:56 |
| kanzure | depends on what diversification really means--- ultimately many engineering problems have similar underlying principles or solutions | 17:56 |
| xentrac | the organizational techniques to make such large organizations manageable are somewhat at odds with the needs of innovation | 17:57 |
| kanzure | there has not been much experimentation with top-down strategic planning for scientific achievement | 17:57 |
| kanzure | there are very few research orgs that have tried this; myelin repair foundation is one of the more prominent examples that comes to mind. | 17:57 |
| kanzure | sens foundation is another example sorta- although they sorta suck at strategy and funding compared to myelin repair foundation i think? not sure. | 17:58 |
| cluckj | big government research projects? | 17:58 |
| kanzure | http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/open-science-summit-2010/scott-johnson-myelin-repair-foundation/ | 17:58 |
| kanzure | "The reason why we show these circles.. is that basic science is pretty random. There's no research plan. No disease organization actually has a research plan. They put out a request for proposals, they peer review those, and those that get the highest ratings, that's what gets funded. Most academics would say that it should be random, since you can't know where they are going. Well, in some cases you want to be outcome directed" | 17:59 |
| kanzure | so in particular i mean the random grant submission process heh | 17:59 |
| kanzure | by picking a strategy you can focus on some very particular questions and hypotheses and work towards either validating some models or rejecting the entire premise, as quickly as possible | 18:00 |
| kanzure | this requires you to be good at speculation and theory and science and knowledge, but that does not seem like an overly burdensome requirement. | 18:01 |
| cluckj | it is, seemingly, all about the benjamins | 18:01 |
| xentrac | 01:57 < kanzure> there has not been much experimentation with top-down strategic planning for scientific achievement | 18:02 |
| kanzure | darpa tends to have some strategy, though. so that's an interesting place to look. | 18:02 |
| xentrac | seriously? what about DARPA, SBIR grants, the Manhattan project...? | 18:02 |
| cluckj | ^ | 18:02 |
| kanzure | yes yes i just said darpa, cool your hyperjets :P | 18:02 |
| xentrac | I was typing too slow! | 18:02 |
| kanzure | sbir grants though- not sure why you bring those up here? | 18:02 |
| cluckj | those are outcome-based though? | 18:02 |
| cluckj | DARPA is like "we need a killer robot to do X" | 18:02 |
| kanzure | no darpa also does broader stuff | 18:03 |
| cluckj | or "we need a big-ass bomb" | 18:03 |
| xentrac | a lot of SBIR grant RFPs are for scientific achievements | 18:03 |
| kanzure | like they did something approximating "make me 'sudo make me a sandwhich'" (their ifab initiative) | 18:03 |
| kanzure | and they have their 100 year colonization starship thingy | 18:03 |
| xentrac | the problem is that most of that stuff is kind of incremental | 18:03 |
| kanzure | why is that problematic? | 18:03 |
| cluckj | something that is coincidentally outcome-based, but is in practice very focused on basic research? | 18:03 |
| xentrac | I mean, the outcomes of scientific discoveries 10 or 20 years out are really hard to predict | 18:04 |
| xentrac | so it's hard to top-down plan what you need to research *today* with objectives half a century out | 18:04 |
| kanzure | well yes but- i mean, presumably you don't focus on magical thinking, you focus on good speculation with good assumptions and good mental arithmetic | 18:04 |
| xentrac | right, but that may not actually work | 18:04 |
| kanzure | i think that's what post mortems are for, "oops we forgot that we needed a null hypothesis" | 18:05 |
| xentrac | I mean you could have argued that the Correspondence Principle showed that lasers were impossible | 18:05 |
| kanzure | "You want to prove the total task will work even if the subtasks fail, and otherwise abandon it. Then you want to prove each subtask is impossible, and replace it appropriately and re-plan integration as quickly as possible (etc etc). It's not as big a deal to structure things perfectly if you have infinite resources and can parallelize everything, which is how the space shuttle and particle colliders are built." | 18:06 |
| xentrac | even if you knew that the confocal microscope would be a really great way to use lasers if they could exist | 18:06 |
| kanzure | "The big danger is doing the non-failfast steps first with one person. If one component has a major problem, that means one node is unexpectedly big. In practice, people replace that component with another component rather than delay, or engineer around it, or just accept the delay. But the overall delay is not due to delay along a specific path--it's due to multiple delays, some on every critical path." | 18:06 |
| kanzure | ("with one person" as in the person architecting and implementing the damn thing (needs to look at the actual details and make sure there's no large splotches of infeasibility)) | 18:07 |
| cluckj | the upcoming scientific funding paradigm is going to be changing from big institutional science to individual entrepreneurship, which might be an improvement | 18:07 |
| xentrac | but there's no way that you would have predicted in 1952 that lasers would lead to supermarket barcode scanners, CD-ROMs, high-bandwidth fiber-optic communication, and consumer-level laser-cut wood | 18:07 |
| kanzure | in the 1920s there was someone that wanted a telescope-based optical internet based on libraries that had lots of mirrors and mechanical switches | 18:08 |
| kanzure | pneumatic relay networks were around since forever | 18:08 |
| xentrac | or for that matter atomic clocks | 18:08 |
| cluckj | now we have fiber networks and DLPs | 18:08 |
| xentrac | (and GPS...) | 18:08 |
| xentrac | sure, optical long-distance communication has a history spanning millennia | 18:09 |
| xentrac | .wik heliograph | 18:09 |
| yoleaux | "A heliograph (Greek: Ἥλιος helios, meaning "sun", and γραφειν graphein, meaning "write") is a wireless solar telegraph that signals by flashes of sunlight (generally using Morse code) reflected by a mirror. The flashes are produced by momentarily pivoting the mirror, or by interrupting the beam with a shutter." — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliograph | 18:09 |
| kanzure | i'm not sure if you would have needed to assume or know about lasers though | 18:09 |
| xentrac | no, what I'm saying is that even if you could know that lasers were *possible* in 1952, instead of being tricked by a naive reading of the Correspondence Principle into labeling them as "magical thinking" | 18:10 |
| kanzure | non-laser alternatives seem plausible | 18:10 |
| kanzure | what's so bad about avoiding lasers? | 18:10 |
| xentrac | you wouldn't have been able to predict the effects of actually achieving lasers | 18:10 |
| kanzure | presumably lasers would still happen (just not because of you :p) | 18:10 |
| xentrac | sure, possibly | 18:10 |
| kanzure | ok so you mean trying to come up with arguments for working on lasers | 18:11 |
| xentrac | although if you take that perspective, in the limit we should not worry about anything and just let other people do all the work | 18:11 |
| xentrac | but I'm not saying avoiding lasers is bad | 18:11 |
| kanzure | i think that framing of the problem is sorta wrong though-- like, "how do we fund the development of brain uploading/scanning/whatever" is a much different question than "hmm how do we commercialize this theoretical physics result?". | 18:11 |
| xentrac | I'm saying that it's hard to plan scientific achievements top-down because you don't know in advance what's possible and what's not, and for that matter what will happen | 18:12 |
| kanzure | i think you can have very strong boundaries around what you know is possible | 18:12 |
| kanzure | there's a lot that we know is possible, we just don't have exact answers on how to get there, but we can definitely be systematic in our approach for identifying reliable paths or routes | 18:12 |
| xentrac | sure, in the late 1800s Kelvin showed that it was impossible for the Sun to be more than a few million years old | 18:12 |
| xentrac | I agree about the brain-uploading question --- we know some of the things we will need to figure out | 18:13 |
| kanzure | that's not a helpful example- the analogy is sorta useless to me, how am i supposed to make a tech thingy that requires the sun to be less than a million years old... | 18:13 |
| * cluckj eats his Thomas Kuhn book, whole | 18:13 | |
| xentrac | heh | 18:13 |
| kanzure | or s/supposed to make/supposed to imagine | 18:13 |
| xentrac | well, a working tokamak or even Farnsworth fusor requires the "impossible" things to happen that allowed the sun to be more than a few million years old | 18:14 |
| kanzure | btw what was his reasoning for impossibility | 18:14 |
| xentrac | he knew the sun's mass from the period of the Earth's orbit, the Earth's mass, and the gravitational constant | 18:15 |
| xentrac | so he calculated the potential energy of that mass falling in from infinity, which was surely where the Sun's energy output came from, and its output | 18:16 |
| kanzure | so he was looking at sun mass burn rate? | 18:16 |
| xentrac | well, he didn't know of a mechanism by which the sun could be burning mass | 18:16 |
| xentrac | that wasn't discovered for several decades more | 18:16 |
| xentrac | he knew the answer was wrong, FWIW | 18:16 |
| kanzure | because astronomy and stars and light years more than a few million? | 18:17 |
| xentrac | because it was known that the Earth was several billion years old and had been populated by plants for a good fraction of that | 18:17 |
| kanzure | oh that is a less fun reason that he knew he was wrong. oh well. | 18:17 |
| xentrac | no, actually the Milky Way was all that was known of the universe at the time, and it's pretty small | 18:17 |
| xentrac | they didn't realize there were other galaxies | 18:17 |
| xentrac | cf. Kuhn above | 18:18 |
| xentrac | anyway so we can work on the problems we think will help with brain uploading | 18:18 |
| xentrac | but it might turn out that the things that actually help most are the ones we can't yet tell will help | 18:18 |
| kanzure | so actually i am not so interested in brain uploading of any particular individual..... i'd be fine with very rough approximation that seems to boot up anything between bonobo-level general cognitive ability and human-level general cognitive ability. the specific memories i'm much less interested in. | 18:19 |
| xentrac | which means that a non-top-down-planned invisible college would get to them first | 18:19 |
| cluckj | there are some that help a lot, and predictably, like refrigeration | 18:19 |
| xentrac | yes | 18:19 |
| cluckj | or vaccinations | 18:19 |
| xentrac | the best modern example is probably the Japanese Fifth Generation Computing Project | 18:19 |
| cluckj | or (currently) antibiotics | 18:19 |
| cluckj | yeah, fuckin' computers too | 18:19 |
| xentrac | where top-down planning prevented Japan from achieving much of anything in computing in the 1980s | 18:20 |
| kanzure | maybe they just had poor planners though? | 18:20 |
| kanzure | get fucking john von neumann in charge of this shit, damn | 18:20 |
| xentrac | sure | 18:20 |
| xentrac | heh | 18:20 |
| xentrac | I don't know if you heard but the good doctor is dead | 18:21 |
| xentrac | antibiotics is a good example of the uncertainty: we have this new family of antibiotics that might turn out to work well and last long enough to allow us to design new ones | 18:21 |
| kanzure | there's lots of alternatives in antibiotics land; they just take a while to get worked on. igem keeps unturning new ways to do antibiotics. i wouldn't worry aobut that. | 18:21 |
| cluckj | antibiotics is a great example too, because there's more than one 'paradigm' to kill bacteria | 18:21 |
| xentrac | but it might turn out that bacteria develop resistance to them faster than we expect and that phage therapy or even diamondoid nanobots would have been a better approach | 18:22 |
| kanzure | nah there's lots of stuff you can do to make sure that resistance is not easily-achievable. | 18:22 |
| cluckj | bacteriophages are one way too, and that approach died with the soviet union | 18:22 |
| xentrac | or I don't know some kind of immune supplementation | 18:22 |
| xentrac | I think there are stll Russian clinics that do phage therapy, cluckj | 18:22 |
| kanzure | bacteria have high parallelism but they have zero ability to surpass super-large energy gaps on the evolutionary landscape | 18:22 |
| cluckj | I think you can still buy them OTC in russia | 18:22 |
| xentrac | kanzure: that seems likely to be correct, but bacteria keep surprising us | 18:23 |
| kanzure | when have they surprised us | 18:24 |
| kanzure | antibiotic resistance has not been surprising | 18:24 |
| xentrac | horizontal gene transfer was discovered in 1951 but it wasn't until the 1990s, for example, that it was recognized as a major driving force of bacterial evolutio | 18:25 |
| kanzure | what? | 18:25 |
| kanzure | so they put the estimate an order of magnitude too low. so what? | 18:25 |
| xentrac | and we keep finding bacterial species that are progressively more extremophilic, surpassing previously hypothesized limits on extremophilia | 18:26 |
| xentrac | although fortunately those are rarely pathogenic | 18:26 |
| cluckj | haha | 18:26 |
| cluckj | Taq polymerase | 18:26 |
| kanzure | fusion answer was a good answer earlier | 18:26 |
| cluckj | speaking of unintended outcomes of extremophile research | 18:26 |
| xentrac | yes, that's a good answer too | 18:27 |
| kanzure | buuuut i don't think kelvin was trying to build a nuclear reactor | 18:27 |
| cluckj | it's an unknown unknown thing | 18:27 |
| xentrac | no, just like I'm not trying to build an antigravity or time-travel or FTL machine | 18:28 |
| kanzure | engineering shows us that planning actually works and we can achieve results, even when we don't know the exact format of all of the components (such as in software, where you don't have full clarity on every single detail at the very beginning). | 18:28 |
| kanzure | well we know how to build a time traveling machine damn it | 18:28 |
| xentrac | (although Kelvin was a great scientist and I am just a punter) | 18:28 |
| cluckj | just gotta go FTL | 18:28 |
| kanzure | no you don't need faster-than-light for time travel, sigh | 18:28 |
| cluckj | there are probably easier ways of time traveling, but we can't even think of what they are because of our current understanding of physics | 18:29 |
| cluckj | I won't say epistemology because 'philosophy' | 18:30 |
| kanzure | huh? no, they are known. | 18:30 |
| kanzure | there are at least two widely known ways to do forward-only time travel | 18:30 |
| kanzure | three, if you are okay with the slow method joke answer | 18:30 |
| xentrac | sure, I meant backward time travel :) | 18:30 |
| cluckj | ^ | 18:30 |
| kanzure | cheaters. | 18:30 |
| xentrac | I think talking about "forward-only time travel" in the context of "time travel" also kind of qualifies as a "joke answer" :) | 18:30 |
| cluckj | lol | 18:31 |
| kanzure | maybe i'm a time clown | 18:31 |
| kanzure | anyway i still tihnk that planning and strategy seems to work | 18:33 |
| kanzure | and focusing on correctness seems to help (i really do think john von neumann would have conducted a better research strategy) | 18:33 |
| xentrac | yeah, I think focusing on correctness and focusing a good part of our effort on things that are strategically important is a good idea | 18:35 |
| kanzure | it's a shame that we have to bother to actually say such generic obvious things | 18:35 |
| kanzure | well i guess they are not always obvious | 18:35 |
| cluckj | I agree it's important too | 18:36 |
| cluckj | I think finding ways to increase and foster serendipity is better :) | 18:36 |
| xentrac | I think we need both | 18:38 |
| cluckj | ^ | 18:38 |
| xentrac | which I think is not obvious to kanzure :) | 18:38 |
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| cluckj | the latest scientific knowledge production regime is about focusing on expanding current understandings in order to profit from them | 18:39 |
| kanzure | not really... it's very poorly structured for that. | 18:40 |
| xentrac | fortunately the Invisible College of Hackademia is here to fill the gap :) | 18:40 |
| cluckj | hah | 18:41 |
| cluckj | it's not so invisible anymore | 18:41 |
| kanzure | hackademia sounds like a rare blood disease | 18:41 |
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| kanzure | i hope there's a treatment | 18:41 |
| kanzure | iirc not even the soviet five year plans were based on merits :-/ | 18:42 |
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| xentrac | well, that's good; it means your idea might not be disastrous ;) | 18:45 |
| kanzure | huh? | 18:47 |
| cluckj | MTBF on soviet five-year plans is about 5 years | 18:47 |
| xentrac | if you went back and discovered that the Soviets had been doing the kind of top-down innovation planning you want to do, and it turned out to be a disaster, then you would have significant though not definitive evidence that it was a bad idea | 18:49 |
| kanzure | why would you have to go back to find that out, though? | 18:50 |
| xentrac | I mean, they certainly didn't leap and bound ahead of the US on innovation; they did make some advances, like the phage therapy mentioned above and a few other things, but mostly they were behind the US | 18:50 |
| kanzure | instead of going back in time let's just check the old trusty soviet patent database instead http://patents.su/ | 18:51 |
| xentrac | by "went back" I meant in the sense of reading old records, not literally using time travel | 18:51 |
| cluckj | lol | 18:51 |
| kanzure | oh right, those were economic plans | 18:55 |
| kanzure | not necessarily science | 18:55 |
| cluckj | centralized planning wasn't just for economics iirc | 18:55 |
| kanzure | or engineering | 18:55 |
| kanzure | trying to find. | 18:55 |
| xentrac | unfortunately I don't even read Cyrillic, much less Russian, so things like http://patents.su/1976 are hard for me to make much sense of | 18:55 |
| kanzure | amateur | 18:56 |
| xentrac | heh | 18:56 |
| kanzure | laser cutter status? | 18:57 |
| cluckj | scientific research is kinda part of the economy :\ | 18:58 |
| kanzure | yes but i dunno level of actual planning of science | 18:58 |
| kanzure | maybe it was just per-institution funding | 18:58 |
| kanzure | "more science towns. yeah, that sounds good." - stalin 1 | 18:59 |
| kanzure | so wikipedia does not seem to have a copy of any of the actual plans?? | 19:00 |
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| xentrac | "katushekki made of dvuhdiski mandrel vnuny leash skpri aid tube sliding iCal Katushev ayuscha I am smiling possibilities 5 us, the shaft frames cal pipes, and the Rhone are equipped with one another nom soedinenIzvestna sliding mandrel for winding electrical coils of the authors." | 19:00 |
| kanzure | sigh of course they don't. | 19:00 |
| kanzure | i bet these were "proprietary". | 19:00 |
| kanzure | how can you execute the plan if you can't even get a copy | 19:01 |
| xentrac | my laser cutter status is that I have an apparently-working workflow from PostScript to MDF objects but I need to try a bunch more things | 19:01 |
| kanzure | how many fires so far? | 19:02 |
| xentrac | I lost most of the last week to an unexpected digestive illness | 19:02 |
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| xentrac | several, but none that didn't blow out immediately | 19:02 |
| kanzure | hm. | 19:02 |
| xentrac | I also hacked together some stuff with JS and SVG because my PostScript interaction loop time is only going to get worse | 19:05 |
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| xentrac | I find PostScript a little frustrating in that, despite pathforall, your access to the generated geometry is still fairly limited | 19:13 |
| xentrac | if you want to find out, for example, whether and where two paths intersect, your options for doing so are limited and inefficient, despite the fact that the RIP has to implement that operation in order to implement clippath and fill | 19:14 |
| xentrac | it's not quite as bad as the situation with OpenSCAD | 19:14 |
| xentrac | I guess I should quit whining and try other systems, like Antimony and Blender | 19:16 |
| xentrac | or BRL-CAD, as nmz787 suggested | 19:16 |
| maaku | xentrac: how was it known the Earth was several billion years old before radioisotope testing? | 19:19 |
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| xentrac | hmm, I'm not sure | 19:21 |
| cluckj | was it? | 19:21 |
| xentrac | it was | 19:21 |
| cluckj | probably thermodynamics? | 19:22 |
| maaku | I'm not questioning it -- I seem to recall the same trivia that Kelvin knew his gas-law estimation of the Sun's age was wrong | 19:22 |
| maaku | but never thought to ask why he knew that | 19:23 |
| xentrac | http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-age-of-the-sun-and-the-earth/ talks about it a bit | 19:23 |
| xentrac | also says Kelvin's estimate was 32000 years! | 19:23 |
| xentrac | it was the sun's future that he thought was limited to 300,000 years, not its past | 19:24 |
| xentrac | then Thomson derived 22M years as its age | 19:25 |
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| xentrac | I think this Scientific American article may date from before the discovery of fusion | 19:27 |
| xentrac | "if the sun consists of a fraction of one per cent of radium, this will account for and make good the heat that is annually lost by it" | 19:30 |
| xentrac | "As yet this substance has not been found in the sun, but the presence of helium, combined with the fact that helium may be obtained from radium, renders the presence of radium in the sun quite probable"! | 19:33 |
| xentrac | so that's the state of knowledge in 1908 | 19:34 |
| xentrac | and it seems rather that Kelvin had persuaded the geologists that their estimate of billions of years as the age of the earth was clearly wrong | 19:34 |
| kanzure | not sure whether radium/helium was sufficient reason | 19:35 |
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| xentrac | well, you would think that the miraculous energy production of radium would have been enough to persuade him | 19:37 |
| xentrac | but no, Kelvin bent over backwards to defend the idea that radium (and by extension other similar "radio-active" phenomena) probably didn't heat either the Earth or the Sun | 19:38 |
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| docl | the ironic thing is that it might be easier to make a Dyson Sphere than a lot of the things we're trying to do, such as small-scale nuclear fusion or curing cancer. the Dyson Sphere only really needs a self replicating robot plus a scalable orbital organizational scheme. who knows how complicated curing cancer or fusing atoms will turn out to be? | 19:45 |
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| xentrac | I worry that part of my enthusiasm for your point, docl, stems from my personal enthusiasm for bootstrapping self-replicating machinery :) | 19:47 |
| xentrac | since the other two parts of the problem, distributed-system design and launching the machinery into a solar orbit, are eminently feasible | 19:48 |
| kanzure | i am not actually interested in curing cancer | 19:49 |
| Alcyius | Besides the fact that "curing cancer" is like saying that you want to "cure virus" | 19:49 |
| docl | I feel like the concept of nanoassemblers has gotten way too much press. macroscale robotic replicators are just as possible, and depend a lot less on unknown hand wavy stuff. | 19:49 |
| kanzure | why worry about amount of press? | 19:50 |
| cluckj | just cure diabetes | 19:50 |
| kanzure | brain uploading conveniently cuts out all of these problems | 19:50 |
| kanzure | but you get different problems instead | 19:51 |
| kanzure | possibly easier problems | 19:51 |
| kanzure | especially if you are willing to chuck out memory and other junk like that | 19:51 |
| cluckj | I like my brain right where it is | 19:52 |
| kanzure | brain uploading isn't necessarily about *your* brain... let's set the sights a little bit lower. any brain would do, really. | 19:52 |
| xentrac | docl: a lot of problems go away if you can assemble things atom by atom | 19:53 |
| xentrac | I mean, there's a reason the SAE defines criteria for dozens of different kinds of steel | 19:53 |
| docl | true enough | 19:54 |
| kanzure | think of the health insurance savings of brain uploading | 19:54 |
| kanzure | and healthcare savings | 19:54 |
| xentrac | nearly each of them is optimal for some use, and often its merit exceeds that of other kinds of steel for that use by an order of magnitude or more | 19:54 |
| xentrac | if you're assembling things out of bulk materials, you have to confront all of that complexity | 19:55 |
| nmz787 | i saw some mention of postscript | 19:55 |
| xentrac | (and this is before you get to annealing vs. tempering vs. case-hardening...) | 19:55 |
| docl | it's just that whenever the topic of self-replicating robots comes up people immediately jump to nanobots. and that's technically a different question. I mean, maybe we actually need to do terascale experimentation before we can get to the point of nanoassemblers. | 19:55 |
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| nmz787 | I am trying to load some postscript into inkscape to convert to vectors to try out on my small laser etcher | 19:56 |
| xentrac | yeah, that's my old-fashioned masochism, nmz787 | 19:56 |
| kanzure | really tiny small laser etcher? or conventional consumer laser etcher. | 19:56 |
| xentrac | maybe try running it through ps2eps first if you're having trouble, nmz787? | 19:56 |
| nmz787 | kanzure: both | 19:56 |
| nmz787 | well i had to install the latest inkscape version | 19:56 |
| nmz787 | lets see what happens now | 19:56 |
| xentrac | I'm pretty sure even sodipodi had EPS import | 19:57 |
| nmz787 | i also don't know how to tell if inkscape actually outputs vectors or not | 19:57 |
| kanzure | one of my mentors was involved in original postscript specification stuff, i think. | 19:57 |
| nmz787 | since I see this: http://blog.linuxgrrl.com/2013/08/12/how-to-produce-vector-eps-with-cmyk-color-using-free-software/ | 19:57 |
| xentrac | (pstoepsi is an alternative if ps2eps doesn't work) | 19:57 |
| nmz787 | i rememeber inkscape not producing vectors reliably years ago too | 19:57 |
| kanzure | btw i told xentrac about your svg laser cutter test file | 19:58 |
| docl | I think maybe there's a problem with trying to do everything "optimal"... you need it to be functional, but not necessarily optimal in the early stages of bootstrapping. you can bother with optimizing later on when you have a lot of factories working in parallel with each other. | 19:58 |
| kanzure | dis one http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/diybio/mccorkle_tomkins-tinch_microchannels.svg | 19:58 |
| xentrac | yeah, I looked at the test file and didn't think it helped with what I wanted to find out | 19:58 |
| xentrac | docl: agreed | 19:58 |
| nmz787 | kanzure: yep... coreldraw was much more reliable | 19:58 |
| kanzure | docl: we should ping freitas and complain about lack of progress. maybe he has something since AASM and kinematic self-replicating machines. | 19:58 |
| kanzure | coreldraw--- i actually used that with my laser cutter. i completely forgot about that. | 19:59 |
| xentrac | yeah, everybody runs their laser cutters with coreldraw | 19:59 |
| nmz787 | damn, I am in windows and ps2eps is easier to get on linux.... (i got here because I couldn't mount my windows partition from linux as it was in hibernate state) | 19:59 |
| xentrac | kanzure: it would be interesting to hear what freitas is up to | 20:00 |
| xentrac | nmz787: install it in cygwin or a virtual machine | 20:00 |
| docl | kanzure: that would be awesome. Dani Eder is the only person I'm aware of that actively developing this area | 20:00 |
| kanzure | dani eder keeps ignoring me, i hate him | 20:00 |
| * xentrac gives kanzure a hug | 20:00 | |
| docl | darn | 20:00 |
| xentrac | I have no idea what else to recommend for vector format conversions on MSWindows, nmz787 | 20:00 |
| kanzure | all i demand is total domination over space matter and time what is so hard to appease about this | 20:01 |
| nmz787 | xentrac: rebooting will be easier than messing with cygwin | 20:01 |
| xentrac | ps2eps (and friends), pstoepsi (and friends), pstoedit, and pstools are the things I have found useful in the past | 20:01 |
| kanzure | docl: i think that eventually we'll figure out a good way to do http://gnusha.org/skdb but so far it has been hard to find people willing to review and speculate about easier ways to solve these problems. | 20:01 |
| kanzure | docl: skdb was originally a way to get a bunch of hardware packages and then do search over the graph to find self-replication | 20:02 |
| xentrac | yeah, I know | 20:02 |
| kanzure | turns out though that self-replication sort of randomly happens if you just randomly populate a board with different operations, | 20:02 |
| kanzure | http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/papers2/ai/The%20evolution%20of%20self-replicating%20computer%20organisms%20-%20A.%20N.%20Pargellis.pdf | 20:02 |
| xentrac | we're just so far from that right now | 20:02 |
| kanzure | which might have interesting implications for self-replication | 20:03 |
| kanzure | erm i mean hardware self-replication | 20:03 |
| kanzure | ... hardware self-replication *bootstrapping* in particular | 20:03 |
| xentrac | yes. unfortunately the hardware world is full of inconvenient conservation laws, plus the Third Law, which make that harder | 20:03 |
| kanzure | origin of life stuff (like via andrew ellington etc) has shown that many rna origins were of the type to support simple self-replication precursors similar to that computational simulation (er, except, with actual molecules and polymer chemistry and stuff) | 20:04 |
| kanzure | but that probably benefited from immensely massive parallelism | 20:05 |
| kanzure | hooking up random bits of hardware until self-replication precursors emerge... does not seem productive. | 20:05 |
| kanzure | s/emerge/happen | 20:05 |
| xentrac | I don't think self-replicating hardware from natural materials will be that hard | 20:06 |
| xentrac | I feel like I kind of have a handle on the problem now | 20:06 |
| kanzure | also, we already have (biological) self-replication so we should probably continue hijacking that | 20:06 |
| kanzure | what sorta handle? | 20:06 |
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| kanzure | i wonder if freitas' book cites nick szabo's clay clanking replicator. | 20:07 |
| xentrac | well, you probably want planar semiconductor fabrication, just because it's so many orders of magnitude ahead of the alternatives | 20:08 |
| kanzure | alright. so that probably requires spatial light modulation somewhere... | 20:08 |
| kanzure | and lithography things. | 20:09 |
| xentrac | sure, but SLM is just planar semiconductor fabrication | 20:09 |
| xentrac | you might be able to get by at low efficiency with direct laser writing too | 20:09 |
| kanzure | do you have additional parts of the answer? or just that :p | 20:09 |
| xentrac | but you need to be able to smelt bulk silicon and aluminum | 20:09 |
| xentrac | aluminum can answer nearly all structural and conduction needs adequately, except springs | 20:10 |
| xentrac | 6061 aluminum is aluminum alloyed with magnesium and silicon, so you need magnesium for that; I'm not sure if a plain aluminum-silicon alloy is adequately strong, but it's certainly better than just plain aluminum | 20:11 |
| kanzure | i agree that planar semiconductor fabrication is a useful piece of the puzzle. planar manufacturing in general seems to simplify many parts of the overall problem space. | 20:11 |
| kanzure | although i haven't figured out how to do planar manufacturing of multi-kilo-newton engines or actuators | 20:12 |
| xentrac | well, most of the fabrication of electric motors or generators is already planar | 20:13 |
| xentrac | Jacques Mattheij's automated fabrication tool for his windmill project was just a CNC plasma torch table | 20:14 |
| xentrac | low-frequency magnetic machines like that benefit enormously from high-permeability alloys, though, and those are almost all iron-based | 20:15 |
| xentrac | so if you can avoid that entirely, it simplifies the picture a lot | 20:15 |
| xentrac | you can get actuators or motors out of piezoelectric or magnetostrictive materials, but you can also get them entirely out of coils of aluminum wire — at the cost of low efficiency | 20:16 |
| xentrac | you can do all kinds of structural and machinery stuff just cutting shit out of sheets of aluminum and jamming it together | 20:18 |
| docl | seems like having cheap access to a large vacuum chamber would make it a lot easier to design stuff optimized for space/lunar conditions. | 20:19 |
| kanzure | in 2007 for some reason i spent a tremendous amount of time looking into the design and fabrication of ultra-high vacuum chambers. | 20:20 |
| kanzure | this was actually how i ended up meeting and then forgetting azonenberg's roommatte long before he met azonenberg..... oops. | 20:20 |
| kanzure | *roommate | 20:20 |
| xentrac | so you need aluminum smelting cells, for which you need a reactor to produce cryolite, and graphite; silicon smelting and zone refining; general-purpose furnaces for materials processing; high-precision robot arms; and cutting torches | 20:21 |
| xentrac | I'm not sure if you can get by without lasers | 20:21 |
| xentrac | I mean, practically | 20:21 |
| kanzure | ((context: it wasn't until much later that i realized that azonenberg's roommate person was someone i had met previously; i thought i only knew azonenberg because of azonenberg things.)) | 20:22 |
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| xentrac | normal silicon smelting consumes charcoal in an arc furnace | 20:22 |
| docl | kanzure: did you find any good designs for making really big hard vacuum chambers? maybe it would help to put remote controlled robots on the inside and let hackers remotely try to create projects using them. | 20:23 |
| xentrac | I'm handwaving a bit about the chemical plant process design aspects, but I feel like they are fairly well understood | 20:23 |
| docl | xentrac: it seems like lasers let you get out of a lot of stuff, like arc welders or drill bits. | 20:24 |
| kanzure | damn... no results: http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/atom_holography_notes.html | 20:24 |
| xentrac | yeah, although plasma torches get you out of drill bits to some extent too ;) | 20:24 |
| xentrac | you need a pretty big fiber laser to not need a drill bit for aluminum though | 20:24 |
| xentrac | I think a drill bit might be a better bargain | 20:25 |
| kanzure | 16:18 < pmetzger> doing SPM based nano bootstrap requires UHV I think, though Merkle has talked about using systems with pure argon atmospheres during bootstrap. | 20:25 |
| kanzure | 16:19 < kanzure> hehe with a good page on how to construct an atom laser: http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/atom_holography_notes.html | 20:25 |
| docl | hmm. 3d printing the preforms for fiber optics is a thing now | 20:25 |
| kanzure | from http://gnusha.org/logs/2010-06-15.log | 20:25 |
| kanzure | 16:17 < kanzure> i was looking into building UHV chambers a few years ago | 20:26 |
| kanzure | 16:17 < kanzure> i was super interested in bose-einstein condensates | 20:26 |
| kanzure | 16:18 < kanzure> for some reason it turned into a von neumann probe page for me http://heybryan.org/projects/atoms/ | 20:26 |
| kanzure | 16:18 < kanzure> because i was interested in atom holography | 20:26 |
| kanzure | 16:18 < kanzure> has some good uhv howto links on that page though :) | 20:26 |
| kanzure | huh. | 20:26 |
| xentrac | (also apparently zone refining won't give you electronics-grade silicon) | 20:26 |
| xentrac | (so a bit of what I said above is wrong) | 20:27 |
| kanzure | huh did i have a data loss event | 20:27 |
| xentrac | (hmm, maybe it will give it to you and is just not used nowadays because the other methods are more efficient) | 20:28 |
| kanzure | i should read the logs | 20:29 |
| maaku | yeah was about to tell you regarding the 404 | 20:30 |
| xentrac | kanzure: I'm not finding Szabo's clay-clanking-replicator proposal | 20:31 |
| kanzure | 199x post to some usenet newsgroup | 20:32 |
| xentrac | well, I did find a 199x Szabo clanking replicator post | 20:32 |
| xentrac | but it was about legos | 20:32 |
| kanzure | i seem to mention it here https://groups.google.com/d/msg/openmanufacturing/Sdwr1W1JqNo/zcKmFrgCRjQJ | 20:33 |
| kanzure | maybe not | 20:33 |
| xentrac | clay is pretty nice if you can get it; you can build furnaces for firing clay out of clay | 20:33 |
| kanzure | "Excerpts from KSRM on "closure engineering" -- http://groups.google.com/group/openmanufacturing/msg/4ff7a92e2425dde2 " | 20:33 |
| kanzure | "szabo: no results found" (for openmanufacturing) whaaaat | 20:33 |
| kanzure | god damn time slips wtf | 20:34 |
| xentrac | I don't think it will work very well on orbit between Mars and the asteroid belt | 20:34 |
| kanzure | "In 1998, Chris Phoenix suggested a general idea for a macroscale replicator on the sci.nanotech newsgroup, operating in a pool of ultraviolet-cured liquid plastic, selectively solidifying the plastic to form solid parts. Computation could be done by fluidic logic. Power for the process could be supplied by a pressurized source of the liquid." | 20:34 |
| kanzure | "In 1995, Nick Szabo proposed a challenge to build a macroscale replicator from Lego(tm) robot kits and similar basic parts. Szabo wrote that this approach was easier than previous proposals for macroscale replicators, but successfully predicted that even this method would not lead to a macroscale replicator within ten years." | 20:34 |
| kanzure | chris phoenix proposal http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&selm=6f0nui%248ih%241%40news.nanospace.com | 20:34 |
| kanzure | nick szabo proposal http://www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/macro.html | 20:34 |
| kanzure | 404.... | 20:35 |
| xentrac | that's the one I just read | 20:35 |
| kanzure | i have a backup of lucifer.com but it's just something i stole in 2014 so it wont have this | 20:35 |
| kanzure | http://web.archive.org/web/20000305141204/http://www.lucifer.com/~sean/N-FX/macro.html | 20:35 |
| xentrac | yeah | 20:35 |
| kanzure | To: extropians@waterville.warwick.com, if-sci@lucifer.com | 20:36 |
| kanzure | i was not aware of an extropians mailing list on that server | 20:36 |
| maaku | docl: maybe work on sand-crawlers across the sahara, shitting out roads and fiber optic cables? | 20:36 |
| kanzure | merely these things http://diyhpl.us/~bryan/irc/extropians/ | 20:36 |
| maaku | docl: more interesting as a target is a self-replicating lunar base imho | 20:36 |
| xentrac | wouldn't be surprising if *.warwick.com aliased to a single mail routing system | 20:37 |
| maaku | but the digital matter of nanotech is so much easier to work with | 20:37 |
| xentrac | the desert is more accessible | 20:38 |
| kanzure | yeah i don't see anything about a clay clanking replicator | 20:38 |
| kanzure | this seems like something fenn will remember though | 20:38 |
| xentrac | subterranean realms also | 20:38 |
| docl | well, if you can 3d print the preforms and the drawing tower, and also create a laser from the fiber, then all you need is for everything else to be dependent on the laser(s). | 20:39 |
| xentrac | agreed | 20:39 |
| xentrac | you need erbium refining or something for the fiber, don't you? or are there less exotic phosphors that can work adequately? | 20:40 |
| erasmus | I want a 3D printer | 20:42 |
| erasmus | but the large ones are still expensive | 20:42 |
| erasmus | if I had one then I could make this https://github.com/OpenBCI/Ultracortex/tree/master/Mark_3 | 20:42 |
| xentrac | I'm less and less enthusiastic about 3D printers, even as they get better | 20:43 |
| kanzure | capthindsight is all about 2d printers and 6-axis 2d printers. so you're in good company. (oops i guess not; where did he go?) | 20:43 |
| xentrac | honestly that particular thing looks like you could do a nearly equally good job by cutting holes in a baseball cap | 20:43 |
| xentrac | the dry electrodes are the interesting part, and they aren't printable | 20:44 |
| xentrac | (and the circuit board, which likewise) | 20:45 |
| docl | what purpose does the erbium serve? does it simply generate light of the desired frequency? | 20:47 |
| docl | it seems like you could simply use an optical filter to grab the desired frequency from sunlight. | 20:48 |
| xentrac | it fluoresces | 20:48 |
| xentrac | a laser works by having a "population inversion" among atoms capable of emitting light at the desired frequency | 20:48 |
| xentrac | normally most of those atoms are in their ground state, so photons of that energy are more likely to be absorbed (exciting an atom) than to be emitted (allowing an excited atom to relax to the ground state) | 20:49 |
| xentrac | which means that as light travels through regular glass, for example, gradually more and more of the red and blue parts of the spectrum are absorbed by different excitable atoms | 20:49 |
| xentrac | if you "invert" these populations, so that more of the atoms are in the excited state than in the ground state, emission becomes more likely than absorption, and the object glows instead of absorbing light | 20:50 |
| xentrac | in a laser, this happens in a process called "stimulated emission", which was super obvious when I read Feynman but now I can't explain adequately | 20:51 |
| xentrac | suggesting a fluency illusion I need to debug | 20:51 |
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| xentrac | so what you do is that first you "pump" the emitting atoms, so that most of them are excited, and then you either wait or you hit the laser with a small stimulus pulse | 20:52 |
| xentrac | you can pump them in lots of ways | 20:52 |
| xentrac | sunlight is one | 20:52 |
| maaku | xentrac: there isn't an economic need for self-replicating robots anywhere on Earth though, even the desert | 20:53 |
| xentrac | but the intensity of the sunlight matters | 20:53 |
| maaku | it makes tremendous sense for lunar resource development, however | 20:53 |
| xentrac | maaku: not until about 2025 maybe? | 20:53 |
| maaku | why 2025? | 20:53 |
| kanzure | seems to be large need for biological self-replicating robots on earth. non-biological self-replication would also be very helpful, such as for tooling and equipment reasons. | 20:54 |
| maaku | kanzure: helpful, but i'm talking opportunity costs because tech is expensive | 20:54 |
| kanzure | although previously many manufacturing implements were the result of dead biological self-replicators | 20:54 |
| kanzure | oh right opportunity cost. right, right. | 20:54 |
| maaku | note price to delivery to lunar surface is about $40k/lb | 20:54 |
| maaku | and only in small quantities | 20:54 |
| maaku | and thanks to the wonder of impact dynamics, the regolith is a fine powder of various ores | 20:54 |
| xentrac | that's about the time photovoltaic production starts to amount to a significant part of human energy production | 20:55 |
| maaku | xentrac: so have a human built factory building tons of solar panels, and people setting them up ... not sure why the robotic complications are necessary | 20:55 |
| docl | if you could actually make them work, there be plenty of demand for Earth based self-replicating robots. | 20:55 |
| xentrac | or I guess human marketed energy production | 20:56 |
| docl | it's basically free money, power, goods, equipment... | 20:56 |
| xentrac | maaku: did you see the wired article about the single-purpose CNC mill whose purpose I won't mention? | 20:56 |
| maaku | docl: you are significantly more optimistic than me at its ability to operate without intervention :) | 20:56 |
| kanzure | was the purpose to annoy me? i bet it was to annoy me. | 20:56 |
| xentrac | heh, no, it was to avoid triggering keyword filters | 20:57 |
| maaku | hahaaha (and no, I didn't) | 20:57 |
| xentrac | the guy talked about the enormous difference between trying to do the machining by hand and doing it on the CNC mill that did the same thing | 20:57 |
| xentrac | basically because he isn't a master machinist he had no hope of completing the task by hand | 20:57 |
| xentrac | a Santa Claus Machine could eliminate human poverty if people aren't denied access to it | 20:58 |
| xentrac | although given how Wikipedia is less popular than cat photos I'm not sure how well people will use it | 20:58 |
| kanzure | so what you're saying is the lego instruction booklet generator needs to include cat pics? | 21:00 |
| maaku | xentrac: you seem young. youthful enthusiasm is good. don't get dissuaded by old farts like me that are too cynical to think such ideas would work | 21:00 |
| kanzure | xentrac is older than dirt | 21:00 |
| xentrac | heh, I'm 39 | 21:00 |
| docl | maaku: if we're talking about partially automated factories, the reason there's demand on earth is because nobody wants to launch an untested concept to the moon. | 21:00 |
| xentrac | and that's only in this body! | 21:00 |
| maaku | hah! ok. I'm only 31 | 21:01 |
| kanzure | buncha old farts in here | 21:01 |
| maaku | docl: well yeah, obviously you test it here on earth | 21:01 |
| maaku | I'm just doubtful an economic argument can be made for use on earth vs alternatives | 21:02 |
| xentrac | the flip side of the santa claus machine is that if it can self-replicate solar panels then you can manage a lot more concentration of wealth if it doesn't require employees to man the factory | 21:02 |
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| maaku | i mean obviously if the tech was fully developed and bug-free, it'd get used | 21:02 |
| maaku | but you'd run out of funding getting to that point | 21:02 |
| xentrac | which is also an economic argument: as founders and investors of the startup, you get to keep all of the value it produces, instead of paying the majority of it to employees | 21:02 |
| xentrac | this is the kind of economic structure that has historically led to disasters like Anaconda Copper and Nauru | 21:03 |
| maaku | whereas even if you have to use remotely operated vehicles driven by people at mission control to debug a lunar self-replicator, and a fully-staffed regolith analog lab where you try stuff out, it's still cheaper than sending smelters and other industrial equipment to the moon | 21:03 |
| docl | well you can't necessarily test everything on earth because stuff that relies on low gravity doesn't work here. Also, vacuum chambers of the size that were talking about tend to be kind of expensive. at some point it might actually be a lot cheaper to simply test it in space. | 21:04 |
| maaku | xentrac: I'll buy that argument for molecular nanotech, which I consider a simpler proposition | 21:04 |
| xentrac | MNT would also have that effect, yes | 21:04 |
| xentrac | well, all of those effects | 21:04 |
| xentrac | the distribution of access to it will make all the difference | 21:05 |
| maaku | It is my informed opinion that the only thing holding up MNT is funding at this point. There's a clear path forward, just needs lots of money to do it. (So I work on bitcoin) | 21:05 |
| xentrac | I suspect that groups that manage to get many people to participate in the process of invention and debugging will do better than groups that don't | 21:05 |
| xentrac | presumably Satoshi would be funding MNT if he cared ;) | 21:06 |
| maaku | for macro self-replication, I'm not so sure ... there's a lot of complexity to be tamed, and it seems to me a much more unsolved problem as a result | 21:06 |
| maaku | maybe that is my own ignorance, however | 21:06 |
| kanzure | hal should have setup a bitcoin/crytonics fund on his way out | 21:06 |
| xentrac | no, I think you're right that there's a lot of complexity and unsolved problems involved | 21:06 |
| xentrac | I don't really know whether it's easier or harder than the Nanorex angle on MNT | 21:07 |
| maaku | macro self-replicating machines seems like an AGI-complete problem, just given the complexity of unconstrained environments (and if you constrain the environment too much, it gets less interesting) | 21:07 |
| xentrac | which I assume is what kanzure means | 21:08 |
| maaku | xentrac: Nanorex angle? | 21:08 |
| kanzure | nanorex was https://github.com/kanzure/nanoengineer | 21:08 |
| maaku | (Although -- last thing I'll say on this -- lunar environment is naturally highly constrained.) | 21:08 |
| xentrac | right | 21:08 |
| xentrac | I think the Atacama is too | 21:08 |
| xentrac | the temperature range is even lower! | 21:09 |
| maaku | right just not sure what "Nanorex angle on MNT" meant | 21:09 |
| maaku | xentrac: so long as sand provides what you need. sand on earth is basically silica. regolith is an even mixture of highly enriched ores. | 21:09 |
| xentrac | I should let kanzure explain Nanorex's plan in more detail if he feels like it, since I have only a glancing acquaintance | 21:10 |
| xentrac | yes, that is true | 21:10 |
| xentrac | but lacking, for example, hydrogen | 21:10 |
| kanzure | no- please continue | 21:10 |
| kanzure | also i am afk | 21:10 |
| maaku | xentrac: that's why you'd operate at the poles | 21:11 |
| maaku | cold is a problem though | 21:11 |
| maaku | i'm about to be afk too | 21:12 |
| xentrac | yeah, I should be too | 21:12 |
| maaku | I will mention I have a business idea for jump-starting private space industry and self-replicating lunar bases via commodity markets using Blockstream technology and the clever application of legal jurisdictions | 21:13 |
| maaku | If anyone wants to do that, let me know. I sincerely doubt I'll get around to it given priorities. | 21:14 |
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| erasmus | my cats breath smells like catfood | 21:56 |
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| docl | what information do we have about creating ultrahard vacuums? | 22:06 |
| poppingtonic | https://xkcd.com/1619/ | 22:07 |
| docl | http://www.cloudynights.com/topic/466140-diy-aluminizing-chamber/ | 22:17 |
| justanotheruser | ultra high vacuum? | 22:22 |
| justanotheruser | or do you actually mean ultrahard vacuum | 22:23 |
| docl | http://www.belljar.net/basics.htm | 22:25 |
| docl | is there a difference? | 22:25 |
| docl | I've heard the vacuum of space referred to as hard vacuum, but ultra high vacuum seems to be a common term as well. | 22:28 |
| justanotheruser | I have never heard of it myself | 22:28 |
| docl | I'm thinking hard is probably a less formal term when applied to vacuum | 22:30 |
| docl | "ultrahard vacuum" might just be a malapropism on my part | 22:31 |
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| docl | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high_vacuum | 22:51 |
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| --- Log closed Wed Dec 23 00:00:44 2015 | ||
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